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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-device study of temporal characteristics of magnetohydrodynamic modes initiating disruptions

Disruptions in tokamaks are often preceded by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities that can rotate or become locked to the wall. Measurements from magnetic diagnostics in the presence of MHD mode precursors to disruptions can yield potentially valuable input to the plasma control system, with a view to disruption avoidance, prediction and mitigation. This report presents an exploratory analysis of the growth of MHD modes and corresponding time scales on the basis of magnetic measurements in multiple tokamaks. To this end, a database was compiled using disruptive discharges from COMPASS, ASDEX Upgrade, DIII-D and JET, manually classified according to disruption root cause, and characterized by a great diversity of operational conditions and mode dynamics. The typical time during which a mode can be detected using saddle coils and the duration of the locked mode phase in the database both extend over several orders of magnitude, but generally the time scales increase with plasma size. Several additional factors are discussed that can influence these durations, including the disruption root cause. A scaling law for the locked phase duration was estimated, yielding predictions toward ITER of the order of hundreds of milliseconds or even seconds. In addition, a scaling law for the mode amplitude at the disruption onset, proposed earlier by de Vries et al. (2016), is applied to the database, and its predictive capabilities are assessed. Despite significant uncertainty on the predictions from both scaling laws, encouraging trends are observed of the fraction of disruptions that may be detected with sufficient warning time to allow mitigation or even avoidance, based solely on observations of MHD mode dynamics. When combined with similar analysis of measurements from diagnostics that are sensitive to other disruption precursors, our analysis methods and results may contribute to the reliability, robustness and generalization of disruption warning schemes for ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECAF Cross-device characterization of tokamak disruptions indicated by abnormalities in plasma vertical position and current

Abnormal (deviating from target) variations in the plasma vertical position Z and current I p (such as vertical displacements, transient I p 'spikes' and quenches) constitute common elements of a disruption, a phenomenon that is to be mitigated, or ultimately avoided in future reactor-relevant tokamaks. While those abnormalities are generally recognized cross-shot and cross-device, details in terms of appearance (or not) and order of those abnormalities in disruption event chains is bound with the plasma state at the time of the chain initiation. Detection of those abnormalities is thus indicative not only of the onset of the plasma collapse itself, but also of the disruption driving cause that is promoted at the particular plasma state. Here, occurrence of disruptions, explored via detection of a Ip quench, and analysis of disruption event chains constituted by Ip and Z abnormalities, is reported for in total 7 full years of operation of 3 devices (KSTAR, MAST-U and NSTX-U) using the DECAFTM code expanded tools and capabilities. It is shown that the disruption occurrence depends not only on details of the plasma state, but also on (device-dependent) technical elements of the shot exit scenario. A year-to-year change in main disruption causes and a reduction of the disruptivity rate, bound with device and operation upgrades, are reported. Particular trigger instances of disruption event chains (and the full chains, when applicable) are shown to occupy different parts of the operation space diagrams, in accordance with prior expectation. Plasma elongation is identified as an important factor influencing details of the chains and its role will be further explored.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Disruption modelling for engineering and physics design of ST-E1 fusion power plant

Plasma disruptions represent a critical challenge for high-performance tokamak operations, as they can compromise machine integrity and reduce operational availability. Although future fusion devices essentially need to incorporate strategies to minimise disruption occurrence, complete avoidance remains unattainable. Consequently, assessing and characterising unmitigated disruption consequences is fundamental for the design and qualification of next-generation fusion power plants. This work supports the pre-conceptual design of ST-E1, a low aspect-ratio Tokamak Fusion Power Plant developed by Tokamak Energy Ltd., by presenting a comprehensive disruption modelling approach applied across different design stages. The methodology integrates both physics and engineering considerations to evaluate the impact of disruptions on machine performance and structural integrity. From an engineering perspective, several ST-E1 layout options were analysed to investigate the electromagnetic response of key components under disruption-induced loads, enabling comparison between alternative design solutions. On the physics side, a broad set of disruption scenarios was explored, scanning operational space parameters, plasma-material interactions, and associated thermal loads. Furthermore, the study examined variations in disruption behaviour arising from different reference equilibria, focusing on a range starting from Double Null to Single Null configurations, reflecting the increasing up-down asymmetry consequences. The results reveal significant contrasts in plasma dynamics and structures electromagnetic behaviour between configurations, highlighting the importance of disruption modelling in guiding design choices. These analyses have proven instrumental in shaping ST-E1 development, offering critical insights for mitigating risks and optimising future fusion power plant designs.

Borowiec, Katarzyna [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000335911739↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disruption Prediction and Avoidance in High Beta Long Pulse KSTAR Plasmas

This research is a concentrated and coordinated experimental and physics analysis program by a small U.S. team, focused on the topical area of “Long Pulse Control” as stated in the proposal solicitation. The overall goal of the research is to produce world-class analysis regarding forecasting and avoidance of disruptions in a long-pulse, superconducting tokamak at high stability parameters (e.g. normalized beta) with direct, quantifiable figures of merit (i.e. plasma disruption rate - “disruptivity”) and its reduction based on improved stability physics and control. The research targets the backbone of the problem – the basic, main issues – to produce this quantitative analysis by: (1) Creating and applying a new physics-based paradigm to understand how to eliminate disruptions: disruption event characterization, and event chain analysis – a direct manifestation of the approach suggested in the DOE Transients Report, (2) Ensuring that the components required to produce high-quality measurements and analysis needed for disruption event characterization for the tokamak in question (here, KSTAR) exist (e.g. pressure profile peaking, high-accuracy pitch angle data, compensated low frequency toroidal mode number n = 1 mode measurement) to create a primarily physics-based disruption forecasting capability, and (3) Addressing disruption avoidance for the first time in KSTAR by attacking primary disruption ‘event chains’, utilizing the most important associated plasma measurements (dynamic n = 1 field). The focus of this work will be avoidance of macroscopic instabilities, especially global modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solidification of SRPPF Aqueous Recovery Liquid: Process Disruptions

Savannah River National Laboratory has identified a magnesium oxysulfate grout formulation to solidify the liquid effluent from the Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility (SRPPF) Aqueous Recovery System (ARS). The formulation uses reactive, light burnt MgO, anhydrous MgSO 4 , and dead burnt MgO and provides good mixability, similar density to the original Portland Cement-based mix, and a leachate pH of 9.39, within the assumed Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) brine pH range. The formulation will solidify the effluent using a solid first, lost paddle design, within a 55-gallon drum. A series of seven different process disruptions, or irregular processing during the expected ARS liquid effluent solidification process, were completed to assess the severity of the impact of the process disruption and how the formulation behaves under these conditions. Seven process disruptions were investigated including: No Mixing, Partial Mixing, Compacted/Stratified, Sealed, Overfilled, Underfilled, and Undermixed. The impact on solidification, leachate pH, Er (a Pu/Am surrogate) distribution, and density of the resulting grout were established. Overall, four of the process disruptions, No Mixing, Partial Mixing, Compacted/Stratified, and Overfilled, resulted in basic, unabsorbed liquid that would require additional solidification to be acceptable for WIPP. Most solids generated in this testing met the expected WIPP leachate pH requirements. Solids from the Compacted/Stratified process disruption test, however, produced a leachate pH slightly above the assumed range in the WIPP performance assessment. The distribution of Er for most of the tests was relatively consistent. The No Mixing process disruption test, however, resulted in non-homogeneous Er distribution, indicating that radioactive material would not be evenly distributed throughout this solid’s matrix. The Overfilled test is the only mix with a density slightly below the acceptable value. The Sealed and Overmixed tests produced a solid closest to the standard mix with no unabsorbed liquid, expected leachate pH levels, consistent Er concentrations, and expected density, indicating these process disruptions do not have a negative impact on the final grout form. Based on the other process disruptions, it is critical to have premixed dry materials and a well-defined mixing process to produce a solid, homogeneous magnesium oxysulfate cement, with no unabsorbed liquid. These process disruption tests show that the lack of adequate mixing is fundamental to creating an improperly solidified material that may require remediation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Black hole-neutron star binaries near neutron star disruption limit in the mass regime of event GW230529

In May 2023, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) Collaboration reported the likely black hole-neutron star (BHNS) merger GW230529_181500. The signal was observed with high significance in only one detector, limiting constraints on the black hole spin and motivating our study of disruption in this mass regime. That event is expected to be the merger of a 2.5–4.5 M ⊙ primary with a secondary compact object of mass between 1.2–2.0 M ⊙ . This makes it the first BHNS merger with a significant potential for the production of electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, and provides further evidence for compact objects existing within the suspected lower mass gap. To produce post-merger EM transients, the component of the black hole spin aligned with the orbital angular momentum must be sufficiently high, allowing the neutron star to be tidally disrupted. The disrupting BHNS binary may then eject a few percent of a solar mass of matter, leading to an observable kilonova driven by radioactive decays in ejecta, and/or a compact-binary gamma-ray burst (cbGRB) resulting from the formation of an accretion disk and relativistic jet. Determining which mergers lead to disruption of the neutron star is necessary to predict the prevalence of EM signals from BHNS mergers, yet most BHNS simulations so far have been performed far from the minimum spin required for tidal disruption. Here, we use the Spectral Einstein Code to explore the behavior of BHNS mergers in a mass range consistent with GW230529_181500 close to that critical spin, and compare our results against the mass remnant model currently used by the LVK Collaboration to predict the probability of tidal disruption. Furthermore, our numerical results reveal the emergence of non-zero accretion disks even below the predicted NS disruption limit, of low mass but capable of powering cbGRBs. Our results also demonstrate that the remnant mass model underpredicts the disk mass for the DD2 equation of state, while they are within expected modeling errors for SFHo. The disruption limit itself, however, is not found to significantly differ from the predictions of the analytical model, unless remnant masses M rem ≲ 0.001 M ⊙ prove interesting observationally. In all of our simulations, any kilonova signal would be dim and most likely dominated by post-merger disk outflows.

GW230529_181500↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scenario adaptive disruption prediction study for next generation burning-plasma tokamaks

Next generation High Performance (HP) tokamaks risk damage from unmitigated disruptions at high current and power. Achieving reliable disruption prediction for a device's HP operation based on its Low Performance (LP) data is a key to its success. In this letter, through explorative data analysis and dedicated numerical experiments on multiple existing tokamaks, we demonstrate how the operational regimes of tokamaks can affect the power of a trained disruption predictor. First, our results suggest data-driven disruption predictors trained on abundant LP discharges work poorly on the HP regime of the same tokamak, which is a consequence of the distinct distributions of the tightly correlated signals related to disruptions in these two regimes. Second, we find that matching operational parameters among tokamaks strongly improves cross-machine accuracy which implies our model learns from the underlying scalings of dimensionless physics parameters like q 95 , β p and confirms the importance of these parameters in disruption physics and cross machine domain matching from the data-driven perspective. Finally, our results show in the absence of HP data from the target devices, the best predictivity of the HP regime for the target machine can be achieved by combining LP data from the target with HP data from other machines. Furthermore, these results provide a possible disruption predictor development strategy for next generation tokamaks, such as ITER and SPARC, and highlight the importance of developing baseline scenario discharges of future tokamaks on existing machines to collect more relevant disruptive data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resistive wall tearing mode disruptions

Abstract This paper deals with resistive wall tearing mode (RWTM) disruptions. RWTMs are closely related to resistive wall modes. RWTMs are tearing modes whose linear and nonlinear behavior is strongly dependent on the resistive wall outside the plasma. The consequence for ITER, is that the thermal quench timescale could be much longer than previously conjectured. Active feedback stabilization is another possible way to mitigate or prevent RWTM disruptions. Simulations of RWTM disruptions are reviewed for DIII-D and MST. MST has a longer resistive wall time than ITER, and disruptions are not observed experimentally when MST is operated as a standard tokamak. Simulations indicate that the RWTM disruption time scale is longer than the experimental shot time. Edge cooling causes contraction of the current profile, which can destabilize RWTMs. The equilibria studied here have the q = 2 rational surface close to the edge of the plasma, and low current density between the q = 2 surface and the wall. A sequence of low edge current model equilibria has major disruptions only for a resistive, not ideal, wall, and edge q ⩽ 3.4 . This is consistent with regimes of tokamak disruptivity, suggesting that tokamak disruptions caused by edge cooling at low edge q could be RWTMs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing manufacturing sector disruptions with targeted mitigation strategies

It has become clear in recent decades that manufacturing supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions of varying geographical scales and intensities. These disruptions—whether intentional, accidental, or resulting from natural disasters—cause failures and capacity reductions to manufacturing infrastructure, with lasting effects that can cascade throughout the manufacturing network. An overall lack of understanding of solutions to mitigate disturbances has rendered the challenge of reducing manufacturing supply chain vulnerability even more difficult. Additionally, the variability of disruptions and their impacts complicates policy maker and stakeholder efforts to plan for specific disruptive scenarios. It is necessary to comprehend different kinds of disturbances and group them based on stakeholder-provided metrics to support planning processes and modeling efforts that promote adaptable, resilient manufacturing supply chains. This paper reviews existing methods for risk management in manufacturing supply chains and the economic and environmental impacts of disruptions. In addition, we develop a framework using agglomerative hierarchical clustering to classify disruptions using U.S. manufacturing network data between 2000 and 2021 and characteristic metrics defined in the literature. Our review identifies five groups of disruptions and discusses both general mitigation methods and strategies targeting each identified group. Further, we highlight gaps in the literature related to estimating and including environmental costs in disaster preparedness and mitigation planning. We also discuss the lack of easily available metrics to quantify environmental impacts of disruptions and how such metrics could be included into our methodology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summary of the IAEA technical meeting on plasma disruptions and their mitigation

Here we summarize the contributions presented at the IAEA technical meeting on plasma disruptions and their mitigation, held virtually, 20–23 July 2020. The meeting brought together more than 120 experts from nuclear fusion research sites worldwide to discuss experimental, theoretical and modelling work in the field of plasma disruptions with special emphasis on developing a solid basis for possible disruption mitigation strategies in ITER and next generation fusion devices. The main topics of the meeting were: (i) disruption consequences, including electromagnetic loads, heat loads, and runaway electrons; (ii) disruption prediction and avoidance, including machine learning and physics-based approaches, and control aspects; and (iii) disruption mitigation, including shattered pellet injection, alternative techniques and general aspects of disruption mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of AI/DEEP learning disruption predictor into a plasma control system

Abstract This paper reports on advances in the state‐of‐the‐art deep learning disruption prediction models based on the Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (FRNN) originally introduced in a 2019 NATURE publication [ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐019‐1116‐4 ]. In particular, the predictor now features not only the “disruption score,” as an indicator of the probability of an imminent disruption, but also a “sensitivity score” in real time to indicate the underlying reasons for the imminent disruption. This adds valuable physics interpretability for the deep learning model and can provide helpful guidance for control actuators now implemented into a modern plasma control system (PCS). The advance is a significant step forward in moving from modern deep learning disruption prediction to real‐time control and brings novel AI‐enabled capabilities relevant for application to the future burning plasma ITER system. Our analyses use large amounts of data from JET and DIII‐D vetted in the earlier NATURE publication. In addition to “when” a shot is predicted to disrupt, this paper addresses reasons “why” by carrying out sensitivity studies. FRNN is accordingly extended to use more channels of information, including measured DIII‐D signals such as (i) the “n1rms” signal that is correlated with the n = 1 modes with finite frequency, including neoclassical tearing mode and sawtooth dynamics; (ii) the bolometer data indicative of plasma impurity control; and (iii) “q‐min”—the minimum value of the safety factor relevant to the key physics of kink modes. The additional channels and interpretability features expand the ability of the deep learning FRNN software to provide information about disruption subcategories as well as more precise and direct guidance for the actuators in a PCS.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Models of resistive wall tearing mode disruptions

Disruptions are a serious issue in tokamaks. In a disruption, the thermal energy is lost by means of an instability which could be a resistive wall tearing mode (RWTM). During precursors to a disruption, the plasma edge region cools, causing the current to contract. Model sequences of contracted current equilibria are given, and their stability is calculated. A linear stability study shows that there is a maximum value of edge q a ≈ 3 for RWTMs to occur. Further, this also implies a minimum rational surface radius normalized to plasma radius from RWTMs to be unstable. Nonlinear simulations are performed using a similar model sequence derived from an equilibrium reconstruction. There is a striking difference in the results, depending on whether the wall is ideal or resistive. With an ideal wall, the perturbations saturate at moderate amplitude, causing a minor disruption without a thermal quench. With a resistive wall, there is a major disruption with a thermal quench, if the edge q a ≤ 3. There is a sharp transition in nonlinear behavior at q a = 3. This is consistent with the linear model and with experiments. If disruptions are caused by RWTMs, then devices with highly conducting walls, such as the International Tokamak Experimental Reactor will experience much milder, tolerable, disruptions than presently predicted.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress Toward Interpretable Machine Learning–Based Disruption Predictors Across Tokamaks

Here in this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently not used in many other machine learning predictors for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. The univariate analysis of the features used as input signals in the data-driven algorithms applied on the data of both tokamaks statistically highlights the differences in the dominant disruption precursors. JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge-cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous magnetohydrodynamic modes. Even though the analyzed data sets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show through a few examples that the inclusion of physics-based disruption markers in data-driven algorithms is a promising path toward the realization of a uniform framework to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios across different tokamaks. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be re-used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impact of Disruptions on the Economics of a Tokamak Power Plant

Tokamaks are often considered to be a leading candidate for near-term, cost-effective fusion energy, but these devices are susceptible to sudden loss of confinement events called disruptions. The threat of disruptions has garnered serious attention in research for the next generation of burning plasma experiments, such as ITER, but has received little treatment in economic studies of magnetic fusion energy. In this paper, we present a model for quantifying the effect of disruptions on the cost of electricity produced by a tokamak power plant (TPP). We outline the various ways disruptions increase costs and decrease revenues, introduce metrics to quantify these effects, and add them to a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model. Additionally, we identify several rate-limiting repair steps and introduce a classification system of disruption types based on the time to return to operations. We demonstrate how the LCOE model can be used to find the cost of electricity and the requirements for disruption handling of a TPP, and we further highlight where future research can have a strong impact in neutralizing the “showstopping” potential of disruptions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Density limits as disruption forecasters for spherical tokamaks

Fusion power output from spherical tokamaks would benefit from increased confined plasma density, but there exists a limit on the density before confinement is lost and the plasma current is disrupted. This density limit has long been characterized by a simple, global Greenwald limit proportional to the plasma current and inversely proportional to the cross sectional area of the plasma. It is shown that in the database of discharges from the National Spherical Tokamak Experiment (NSTX) and Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) spherical tokamaks, the likelihood of disruption does increase above the Greenwald limit, and especially in the plasma current rampdown phase. The physics of the density limit has been recently theoretically explored through local criteria. Several of these are tested using the disruption event characterization and forecasting (DECAF TM ) code for their potential effectiveness as disruption warning signals. For a limited set of NSTX discharges, a local island power balance criteria was found to be less reliable, presently, than the Greenwald limit. For this work, an empirical critical edge line density and a boundary turbulent transport limit were both tested for MAST-U, which has an electron density profile measurement with high spatial resolution in the outer part of the plasma. Both were found to have similar dependencies on key plasma parameters. In a limited set of MAST-U discharges that appear to disrupt due to rising density at values under the Greenwald limit, crossing of the boundary turbulent transport limit occurred close to the time of disruption. Finally, these limits were evaluated for their potential use in real-time, and it was found that with the necessary real-time inputs and with refinement through further testing, these limits could be implemented in a real-time disruption forecasting system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and experimental qualification of novel disruption prevention techniques on DIII-D

Novel disruption prevention solutions spanning a range of control regimes are being developed and tested on DIII-D to enable ITER success. First, a new real-time control algorithm has been developed and tested for regulating nearness to stability limits and maintaining safety-margins. Its first application has been for reliable prevention of vertical displacement events (VDEs) by adjusting plasma elongation (κ) and the inner-gap between the plasma and inner-wall in response to real- time open-loop VDE growth rate (γ) estimators. VDEs were robustly prevented up to average open-loop growth rates of 800 rad/s with initial tunings, with only applying shape modification when near safety limits. Second, the disruption risk during fast, emergency shutdown after large tearing and locked modes can be significantly improved by transitioning to a limited topology during shutdown. More than 50% of emergency limited shutdowns after locked modes reach a final normalized current I_N < 0.3 before terminating, scaling to the 3 MA ITER requirement. Furthermore, this is in contrast to diverted shutdowns, the majority of which disrupt at I_N > 0.8. Despite improvements, these results highlight the critical importance of early prevention. Third, a novel emergency shut down method has been developed which excites instabilities to form a warm, helical core post-thermal quench. The current quench extends to ~100ms and avoids VDEs and runaway electron generation. Novel real-time machine learning disruption prediction has been integrated with the DIII-D proximity controller, and a real- time compatible multi-mode MHD spectroscopy technique has been developed. Results presented here were enabled by a focused effort, the Disruption Free Protocol, in DIII-D’s 2019-20 campaign to complement disruption prevention experiments with a large piggy-back program. In addition to testing novel techniques, it is estimated to have helped avoid 32 potential disruptions in piggyback operations with rapid, early shutdowns after large rotating n=1 or locked modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disruption avoidance via island suppression: the crucial roles of DIII-D and foundational research

The FESAC long range plan calls out disruption avoidance and mitigation as key remaining technical gaps. In discussing the roles of DIII-D and NSTX-U, the FESAC long range plan says “Additional research on these facilities, in combination with private and international collaborations, continuing support of existing university tokamak programs, and utilization of US expertise in theory and simulation, is needed to find solutions to remaining technical gaps. These gaps include disruption prediction, avoidance, and mitigation …”. Disruptions pose an existential threat to ITER and to FPPs. For a fusion reactor, unplanned shutdowns caused by disruptions will be a significant barrier to connecting such a reactor to the electric grid, even if disruption mitigation is successful. Disruption studies for ITER in recent years have largely focused on disruption mitigation (e.g., pellet injection), motivated by near-term deadlines for finalizing the design of the mitigation hardware. It is recognized, however, that mitigation alone will not suffice. The 2022 U.S. ITER Research Needs Workshop Report states that ”[d]isruptions are considered the largest threat to the ITER Research Program”, and that “[m]itigation should be a last resort”. As we discuss below, there are unresolved foundational issues that play a critical role in avoidance, and DIII-D is an ideal device for generating the data needed to address these issues.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A procedure for rule extraction from a Self-Organising plasma disruption predictor for JET

In a previous paper, a Self-Organizing Map had proven to be able to identify the regions of the plasma operative space characterizing the pre-disruptive phase at JET without relying on any a priori information. One of the strengths of this disruption predictor lies in its inherent self-organization capability. The Self-Organizing Map discovers non-trivial relationships and captures the complicated interplay of device diagnostics on the internal plasma states directly from the experimental data. Moreover, the provided model allows the visualization of high-dimensional plasma parameters and facilitates easy interrogation of the model to understand the reasons behind its correlations. In this paper, an additional step is taken towards the interpretability of models for predicting disruptions by training a Decision Tree to classify the plasma states according to the interpretation provided by the Self-Organizing Map (stable or at high risk of disruptions). The Decision tree provides a set of rules which describe the transition of the plasma towards the pre-disruptive phase as visualized in the Self-Organizing Map. The obtained rules for the database explored in the study identify four regions in the map, two of which are at risk of disruption. These regions correspond to partitions of a 3D space based on the peaking factors of the core and divertor radiation, as well as the Locked Mode. The agreement between the Self-Organizing Map answers and the rules supplied by the Decision Tree is confirmed by the comparison of the performance exhibited by the two models in the prediction of disruptions.

Setzu, Samuele [Univ. of Cagliari, Monserrato, Cag↗