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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

A MODIS-Based Automated Flood Monitoring System for Southeast Asia

Flood disasters in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to spatially and temporally monitor floods can help governments and international agencies formulate effective disaster response strategies during a flood and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, 16 2013, and 2016 (http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/historical_rec.htm, April 24, 2017). The large spatial distribution of flooded areas and lack of proper gauge data in the region makes accurate monitoring and assessment of impacts of floods difficult. Here, we discuss the utility of applying satellite-based Earth observations for improving flood inundation monitoring over the flood-prone Lower Mekong River Basin. We present a methodology for determining near real-time surface water extent associated with current and historic flood events by training surface water classifiers from 8-day, 250-meter Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data spanning the length of the MODIS satellite record. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signature of permanent water bodies (MOD44W; Carroll et al., 2009) is used to train surface water classifiers which are applied to a time period of interest. From this, an operational nowcast flood detection component is produced using twice daily imagery acquired at 3-hour latency which performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies and accuracy assessments against radar-based observations for historic flood events are presented. The customizable system has been transferred to regional organizations and near real-time derived surface water products are made available through a web interface platform. Results highlight the potential of near real-time observation and impact assessment systems to serve as effective decision support tools for governments, international agencies, and disaster responders.

Mekong River↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Earth Observations and the NASA Earth Science Disasters Program: Providing Data, Services and Science Expertise to Inform End User Decision-Making Throughout the Disaster Management Cycle

Program Goals: - Harness NASA Capabilities for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and resilience - Engage stakeholders in the use of Earth Observations (EO) throughout the disaster lifecycle - Demonstrate the value and impact of EO to support decision making and actions - Grow as a trusted source for delivering useful results

Ronan Lucey↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GeoNEX: A geostationary earth observatory at NASA Earth eXchange: Earth monitoring from operational geostationary satellite systems

The latest generation of geostationary satellites (Himawari 8/9, GOES-16/17, FY-4, GK-2A) carries sensors that closely mimic the spatial and spectral characteristics of widely used polar-orbiting, global monitoring sensors such as MODIS and VIIRS. When combined, data from various currently operating/planned geostationary platforms provide a geo-ring of hyper-temporal (5-10 minutes), multispectral observations at spatial resolutions as high as 500 m. These high frequency observations offer exciting new possibilities for monitoring our planet, including better retrievals of geophysical variables by overcoming cloud cover, enabling studies of diurnally varying phenomena in the atmosphere, land, and the oceans, and support operational decision-making in agriculture, hydrology and disaster management. The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) team, in collaboration with scientists from JAXA, KARI, NOAA and other international institutions, created the GeoNEX (www.nasa.gov/geonex) pipeline to integrate data from all available geostationary platforms and produce and distribute spatially, temporally, and radiometrically consistent data for the earth science community. We envision various institutions adapting the Geo component (e.g., GeoNOAA, GeoKARI, GeoChiba, GeoJAXA, GeoCMA) and customizing the pipeline and downstream products to serve the local/regional research and applied science communities.

Ramakrishna R Nemani↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GeoNEX: A Geostationary Earth Observatory

The latest generation of geostationary satellites (Himawari 8/9, GOES-16/17, FY-4, GK-2A) carries sensors that closely mimic the spatial and spectral characteristics of widely used polar-orbiting, global monitoring sensors such as MODIS and VIIRS. When combined, data from various currently operating/planned geostationary platforms provide a geo-ring of hyper-temporal (5-10 minutes), multispectral observations at spatial resolutions as high as 500 m. These high frequency observations offer exciting new possibilities for monitoring our planet, including better retrievals of geophysical variables by overcoming cloud cover, enabling studies of diurnally varying phenomena in the atmosphere, land, and the oceans, and support operational decision-making in agriculture, hydrology and disaster management. The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) team, in collaboration with scientists from JAXA, KARI, NOAA and other international institutions, created the GeoNEX (www.nasa.gov/geonex) pipeline to integrate data from all available geostationary platforms and produce and distribute spatially, temporally, and radiometrically consistent data for the earth science community. We envision various institutions adapting the Geo component (e.g., GeoNOAA, GeoKARI, GeoChiba, GeoJAXA, GeoCMA) and customizing the pipeline and downstream products to serve the local/regional research and applied science communities. To facilitate collaborative work among the partners, we have established the OpenNEX platform on the public cloud. OpenNEX provides researchers, developers, educators, and ordinary users with easy access to an integrated Earth science computational and data platform, enabling citizen scientists and application developers to realize the full value of GeoNEX data assets and software tools.

GeoNEX↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Heuristic Approach to Global Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

Landslides can have significant and pervasive impacts to life and property around the world. Several attempts have been made to predict the geographic distribution of landslide activity at continental and global scales. These efforts shared common traits such as resolution, modeling approach, and explanatory variables. The lessons learned from prior research have been applied to build a new global susceptibility map from existing and previously unavailable data. Data on slope, faults, geology, forest loss, and road networks were combined using a heuristic fuzzy approach. The map was evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, as well as several local landslide inventories. Comparisons to similar susceptibility maps suggest that the subjective methods commonly used at this scale are, for the most part, reproducible. However, comparisons of landslide susceptibility across spatial scales must take into account the susceptibility of the local subset relative to the larger study area. The new global landslide susceptibility map is intended for use in disaster planning, situational awareness, and for incorporation into global decision support systems.

mapping↗
NASA NTRS2013

Common Web Mapping and Mobile Device Framework for Display of NASA Real-time Data

Scientists have strategic goals to deliver their unique datasets and research to both collaborative partners and more broadly to the public. These datasets can have a significant impact locally and globally as has been shown by the success of the NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and SERVIR programs at Marshall Space Flight Center. Each of these respective organizations provides near real‐time data at the best resolution possible to address concerns of the operational weather forecasting community (SPoRT) and to support environmental monitoring and disaster assessment (SERVIR). However, one of the biggest struggles to delivering the data to these and other Earth science community partners is formatting the product to fit into an end user's Decision Support System (DSS). The problem of delivering the data to the end‐user's DSS can be a significant impediment to transitioning research to operational environments especially for disaster response where the deliver time is critical. The decision makers, in addition to the DSS, need seamless access to these same datasets from a web browser or a mobile phone for support when they are away from their DSS or for personnel out in the field. A framework has been developed for MSFC Earth Science program that can be used to easily enable seamless delivery of scientific data to end users in multiple formats. The first format is an open geospatial format, Web Mapping Service (WMS), which is easily integrated into most DSSs. The second format is a web browser display, which can be embedded within any MSFC Science web page with just a few lines of web page coding. The third format is accessible in the form of iOS and Android native mobile applications that could be downloaded from an "app store". The framework developed has reduced the level of effort needed to bring new and existing NASA datasets to each of these end user platforms and help extend the reach of science data.

Burks, Jason E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Common Web Mapping and Mobile Device Framework for Display of NASA Real-time Data

Scientists have strategic goals to deliver their unique datasets and research to both collaborative partners and more broadly to the public. These datasets can have a significant impact locally and globally as has been shown by the success of the NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and SERVIR programs at Marshall Space Flight Center. Each of these respective organizations provides near real‐time data at the best resolution possible to address concerns of the operational weather forecasting community (SPoRT) and to support environmental monitoring and disaster assessment (SERVIR). However, one of the biggest struggles to delivering the data to these and other Earth science community partners is formatting the product to fit into an end user's Decision Support System (DSS). The problem of delivering the data to the end‐user's DSS can be a significant impediment to transitioning research to operational environments especially for disaster response where the deliver time is critical. The decision makers, in addition to the DSS, need seamless access to these same datasets from a web browser or a mobile phone for support when they are away from their DSS or for personnel out in the field. A framework has been developed for MSFC Earth Science program that can be used to easily enable seamless delivery of scientific data to end users in multiple formats. The first format is an open geospatial format, Web Mapping Service (WMS), which is easily integrated into most DSSs. The second format is a web browser display, which can be embedded within any MSFC Science web page with just a few lines of web page coding. The third format is accessible in the form of iOS and Android native mobile applications that could be downloaded from an "app store". The framework developed has reduced the level of effort needed to bring new and existing NASA datasets to each of these end user platforms and help extend the reach of science data.

Burks, Jason↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Applications: A Summary of NASA’s DEVELOP Program and Projects in Central and South America

NASA’s DEVELOP program engages individuals and organizations in 10-week feasibility studies to apply NASA Earth observations (EO) to decision makers’ needs. Since 2018, DEVELOP conducted 21 projects in Central and South America, eight of those in collaboration with Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA) and its member state partner agencies. These projects addressed a diverse set of community needs across multiple themes, including two focused on disaster risk reduction and resilience using EO for mapping landslide susceptibility in the Dominican Republic and riparian flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador. This poster introduces DEVELOP, its approach to capacity building, key partnerships, and project results highlighting the capabilities of EO for enhanced decision making in the area of reduction of disaster risk and support disaster resilience.

Capacity Building↗
NASA NTRS2009

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins,". As described in Kumar et al., 2007, and demonstrated in Case et al., 2008, and Santanello et al., 2009, LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling the enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation as described in Peters-Lidard et al. (2008) and Santanello et al. (2007), who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs. LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation (Kumar et al., 2008) using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature. Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation. Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeoroogical modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins". LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling be enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation, who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs.LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature.Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation.Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeorological modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program: Making EO Data and Expertise Available through the Disasters Mapping Portal to Inform Decision-Makers throughout the Disaster Cycle

The NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program promotes the use of Earth Observations (EO) to inform disaster risk reduction and resilience throughout the disaster cycle, from local to global scales, by harnessing NASA science and technology capabilities, through engagement with end users to demonstrate the value and impact of EO to support decision-making, and by supporting end users in their use of EO in decision-making while developing relationships to grow as a trusted source of relevant science and useful results. Through the NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program Mapping Portal, an Esri-backed hub of geospatially enabled disaster products, event-based and near-real-time products are hosted to provide end users with analysis-ready data and data services, keeping in mind their expressed EO needs. In this presentation, case studies of past events will be highlighted, showcasing how EO data and services were provided by the Program and utilized by end users during the disaster cycle. Additionally, this presentation will highlight some of the Program’s ongoing collaboration activities to assist end users in understanding and preparing for utilization of EO data from the Mapping Portal to inform their decision-making throughout the disaster cycle. Ongoing efforts to advance the science provided by the Program on the Mapping Portal through new developments and capabilities will be highlighted, and common challenges and data needs end users often encounter when using EO data and our Program’s innovative solutions to these challenges will be addressed. Furthermore, this presentation will touch on the challenges faced and the solutions created by the Mapping Portal team in managing and hosting a plethora of EO data for end users across various disciplines.

Ronan Lucey↗
NASA NTRS2015

Southern California Disasters II

The USDA Forest Service (USFS) has multiple programs in place which primarily utilize Landsat imagery to produce burn severity indices for aiding wildfire damage assessment and mitigation. These indices provide widely-used wildfire damage assessment tools to decision makers. When the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) is launched in 2022, the sensor's hyperspectral resolution will support new methods for assessing natural disaster impacts on ecosystems, including wildfire damage to forests. This project used simulated HyspIRI data to study three southern California fires: Aspen, French, and King. Burn severity indices were calculated from the data and the results were quantitatively compared to the comparable USFS products currently in use. The final results from this project illustrate how HyspIRI data may be used in the future to enhance assessment of fire-damaged areas and provide additional monitoring tools for decision support to the USFS and other land management agencies.

Nicholson, Heather↗
NASA NTRS2004

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica, composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico, make up only a small fraction of the world's land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet's biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica's biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica - composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico - make up only a small fraction of the world s land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet s biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica s biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, Daniel E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Earth Observations to Assess Impact of Hurricane Katrina on John C. Stennis Space Center

The peril from hurricanes to Space Operations Centers is real and is forecast to continue; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma of 2005 and Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne of 2004 are sufficient motivation for NASA to develop a multi-Center plan for preparedness and response. As was demonstrated at SSC (Stennis Space Center) in response to Hurricane Katrina, NASA Centers are efficiently activated as local command centers, playing host to Federal and State agencies and first responders to coordinate and provide evacuation, relocation, response, and recovery activities. Remote sensing decision support provides critical insight for managing NASA infrastructure and for assisting Center decision makers. Managers require geospatial information to manage the federal city. Immediately following Katrina, SSC s power and network connections were disabled, hardware was inoperative, technical staff was displaced and/or out of contact, and graphical decision support tools were non-existent or less than fully effective. Despite this circumstance, SSC EOC (Emergency Operations Center) implemented response operations to assess damage and to activate recovery plans. To assist Center Managers, the NASA ASP (Applied Sciences Program) made its archive of high-resolution data over the site available. In the weeks and months after the immediate crisis, NASA supplemented this data with high-resolution, post-Katrina imagery over SSC and much of the affected coastal areas. Much of the high-resolution imagery was made available through the Department of Defense Clear View contract and was distributed through U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science "Hurricane Katrina Disaster Response" Web site. By integrating multiple image data types with other information sources, ASP applied an all-source solutions approach to develop decision support tools that enabled managers to respond to critical issues, such as expedient access to infrastructure and deployment of resources, provision of temporary shelter, logistical control of critical supplies, and the mobilization and coordination of assets from ground crews to aircraft/airspace management. Furthermore, ASP developed information products that illustrate risks to SSC's infrastructure from surge, inundation, and flood. Current plans include developing wind-risk prototype products for refinement and adoption into EOC plans.

Graham, William D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery

The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗