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Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification and Optimal Experiment Design in the Open-Source Pyomo Ecosystem

This contribution describes ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE, two pillars of the open-source Python-based Pyomo ecosystem for computational optimization with (partial differential) algebraic equation mathematical models. Specifically, ParmEst facilitates intrusive frequentist parameter estimation (PE) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) through built-in features, such as covariance matrix estimation, bootstrapping, and likelihood ratio tests. Complementary, Pyomo.DoE enables optimal experiment design by maximizing various metrics of the Fisher information matrix, such as A-optimality (trace), D-optimality (determinant), E-optimality (minimum eigenvalue), and ME-optimality (condition number). ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE can solve high-dimensional optimization problems by leveraging the model structure and exact derivative information. Finally, we will discuss future opportunities to integrate PE and UQ capabilities with optimization under uncertainty, including robust optimization with non-convex models via PyROS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

IER 516: Zirconium Test Assembly CED Phase-1: Preliminary Experiment Design

IER-516, Zirconium Test Assembly (ZTA), is a campaign to design, execute, and document a series of high-fidelity critical benchmark experiments to validate current and future zirconium (Zr) and zirconium hydride (ZrH x ) nuclear data evaluations. ZTA is a collaborative project between Los Alamos National Laboratory and the French Autoritè de Sûretè Nuclèaire et de Radioprotection. The experiments will be fueled with highly enriched uranium (HEU), and utilize the Comet critical assembly machine at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center. A total of ten preliminary critical experiments were designed and optimized for Zr and ZrHx nuclear data sensitivities using the MCNP-Particle Swarm Optimization methodology in the thermal, epithermal, intermediate, and fast neutron energy regions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

CERBERUS Integral Experiment Design

There are concerns about the accuracy of Cu nuclear data, which has been highlighted in differences in the trend of C-E for the Zeus intermediate energy benchmark. Furthermore, very few integral experiments have been designed to be sensitive to Cu, so one is needed in order to help resolve these differences. Work on designing a critical, integral experiment that is sensitive to 63 Cu elastic scattering is ongoing and the content of this paper summarizes this work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Experiment Design and Preparation for a Shielding Benchmark Utilizing Godiva-IV

An experiment is currently being designed to provide a high-quality shielding benchmark for Criticality Accident Alarm System (CAAS) modeling. Previous benchmarks have suffered from uncertainty primarily due to two factors. The first factor is radiation that is not directly coming from the source, also known as room return. Room return is notoriously difficult to account for in experimental data and to model in benchmarks. The second factor is uncertainty associated with the source term itself. In order to reduce these two sources of uncertainty, this experiment will utilize a room return shield [1] that will reduce the effect of room return and previous work performed to ensure the reproducibility of the source term. The experiment will use the Godiva IV [2] assembly located at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) to provide a neutron source representative of a criticality accident. Previous experiments [3]-[4] have shown that Godiva IV is capable of producing both bursts and steady-state emissions of equal magnitude which will allow for reduced uncertainty in the source term. The room return shield will house and isolate the shielding samples, neutron activation foils, and other detectors. Data collected will provide a comparison of the neutron and gamma dose for shielded and unshielded configurations. This data will be used to validate shielding data used for modeling criticality accident alarm systems. Shielding samples included in this benchmark are C, Fe, NaCl, Pb, high density polyethylene, and SiO 2 . This paper details the design of the room return shield, the experimental plan, challenges, and mitigation strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Wedding Cake Experiments Design and Data Packages (V.2)

This report documents the design and data for four related experiments known as the Wedding Cake shots. It is a revised version of LA-UR-17-28352. The basic designs of these four shots are the same. A high-explosive plane-wave lens launches a flyer towards an acceptor material with a smaller diameter. This acceptor is either another piece of high-explosive or a piece of polyethylene. A detonation or shock wave propagates through this material and launches a second flyer. The velocities of both flyers are recorded using Photon Doppler Velocimetry (PDV). The overall shape of the shots is reminiscent of a tiered wedding cake and, consequently, these shots are know as the Wedding Cake shots. Details of the shot assembly are shown in the Wedding Cake Assembly Drawing and component drawings that accompany this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

EUCLID Experiment: Design, Execution, and Early Results [Slides]

This presentation covers design, execution, and early results for the EUCLID experiment. Unresolved compensating errors for Pu-239 and the Joint uncertainty problems are discussed. Various tools and design implementations are discussed along with upcoming work. Additional slides compare EUCLID calculations to experiment for several nuclear data libraries. ENDF/B-VIII.1β2 is named e81b2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effect of Nuclear Data Covariances on Integral Experiment Design with Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) uses MCNP6.2 and the Whisper code for criticality safety analyses of the Hanford Tank Farm. Together the codes derive baseline upper subcritical limits (USLs) for the waste models using experimental benchmarks. Whisper returns higher USLs, i.e. , has less of a conservative penalty, when the neutronic similarity of the experimental benchmarks to the application is high. Unfortunately, few critical benchmarks have high similarity to the Hanford tanks. The waste in the tanks is highly dilute in plutonium and contains large masses of weakly neutron-absorbing elements like iron and manganese. Experimental benchmarks typically have low sensitivity to these absorbers because they are present as structural materials. Lacking similar benchmarks, new Thermal Epithermal eXperiment (TEX) configurations with high Pu content and interstitial iron absorbers have been designed for the criticality safety validation. The features of the design have been iterated upon to maximize the similarity between the experiment and different Hanford waste models. The similarity is quantified with sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification using the representativity coefficient, or c k . The representativity calculation requires nuclear data covariances, which may differ between nuclear data libraries and between library versions. Because of these variations, the optimal design may depend on the nuclear data covariances library. A scenario can be envisioned where an experiment is designed, and c k is maximized, with one set of covariance data. However, when the covariance data is changed, say from ENDF/B-VII.1 to ENDF/B-VIII.0, and the benchmark is used in a criticality safety evaluation, the experiment becomes suboptimal with respect to c k . In this paper, we present how the optimal design of the new TEX experiments varied depending on the nuclear data covariances used to calculate c k . We compare ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0, as if the library had been updated since the design of the experiment. Additionally, we use JEFF3.3 to simulate if the covariance data of a different library had been used. The results show that the covariances do have an important effect on the designs, less so for thermal systems (where the data are more consistent between evaluations) and more so for epithermal systems where more differences exist.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nuclear data covariances are critical input to determine upper sub-critical limits and to design experiments to increase it [Slides]

This presentation discusses how Upper Subcritical Limits (USL) are key parameters to determine operational limits in nuclear criticality safety evaluations. It also discusses an example of plutonium casting operation using tantalum at LANL PF-4. The Whisper tool at Los Alamos relies on many inputs, including covariance data, leading the presentation to ask if an existing benchmark data be used in Whisper to adjust nuclear data and covariances to justify a higher USL. If not, Whisper can be used to help design an optimal new benchmark experiment. The presentation also seeks to determine what the possible impacts are on USL and operational limits for plutonium casting. In conclusion, nuclear data covariances are used for by Whisper for: GSSL adjustment of nuclear data and covariances, identification of most similar existing benchmark experiments to application, simulation of Upper Subcritical Limit of application, and input to optimization techniques for designing most appropriate new benchmark experiment(s) to meet requirements. This requires a complete set of nuclear data covariances, benchmarks and k-effective sensitivity profiles (for both benchmarks and applications). The presentation concludes by asking if end users should trust results that depend on current covariance data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Selected Uses of TSUNAMI in Critical Experiment Design and Analysis

Validation in criticality safety is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 and enable investigation of the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. For the critical experiments used in a validation to capture the biases of the materials and neutron energy spectra of interest, those materials must be included in the experiment such that they influence k eff or another observable parameter with statistical significance. This paper discusses the use of sensitivity uncertainty (S/U) methods to develop critical experiments for various purposes. S/U techniques are useful for understanding the underlying components of nuclear data which affect the k eff or another parameter of a given configuration. S/U calculations are most commonly used to compare existing experiments to applications of interest; however, S/U techniques can also be used to identify, optimize, or assess features of proposed experiments so that they can better test specific portions of nuclear data or match an application of interest. The S/U techniques discussed here are from the TSUNAMI code system. The two primary codes discussed in this work are TSUNAMI-3D, which implements the KENO criticality code to calculate the sensitivity of k eff to nuclear data, and TSAR, which calculates the sensitivity of a reactivity difference between two configurations based on their TSUNAMI-3D generated sensitivity profiles. The methods used in these tools are discussed in more detail in the SCALE manual. This paper is one of a series on the development and use of TSUNAMI tools. The other papers address development of TSUNAMI methods and a review of TSUNAMI applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Neutron Absorber Plate Characterization Plan for Criticality Experiments Design [Slides]

The goal of this presentation is to show the feasibility of performing a critical experiment with a B 4 C/Aluminum alloy neutron absorber plate. The motivation of this experiment is to provide integral data on modern neutron absorber product “Boralcan” by Rio Tinto. In 2020, used in about 20% of spent fuel pools in the US, and in casks for storage and transportation in the US and in Europe. The added value of this experiment: Neutron absorber plate modeling method verification: homogeneous or not, a lot of potential savings by relaxing boron loading credit limits. No available critical benchmark involving Boralcan, other boron-related experiments are relatively old. Nuclear data validation for B, C, and Al in the form of B 4 C in Al matrix.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Thermal Gradient and Neutron Irradiation Experiment Design for Fusion Reactor Materials in the Advanced Test Reactor

This work outlines a hypothetical coupled thermal gradient and neutron irradiation experiment in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at the Idaho National Laboratory. Although the ATR is a thermal spectrum test reactor and doesn’t inherently produce a flux spectrum dominated by the high-energy neutrons typical in a fusion reactor, it’s multitude of experiment positions and dynamic flux environment make it a suitable platform for investigating fusion related issues.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tritium Transport Phenomena in Molten-Salt Reactors: Molten Salt Tritium Transport Experiment Design

Tritium is produced from neutron interactions with both lithium and beryllium. Large quantities of tritium are generated in Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) which use LiF/BeF2 (FLiBe) as the fuel salt. Tritium is unique among the radionuclide hazards as it readily permeates through metal structural materials at high temperatures. All metal surfaces are potential release paths for tritium. For adequate safety analysis and eventual licensing of new reactors, predictive models for tritium transport and release from MSRs must be developed. These models must account for the multiple transport phenomena involved with tritium: fuel salt phase mass transport, dissociation/recombination reactions on metal surfaces, interstitial diffusion through the metal structure, and salt or gas phase mass transport in the downstream fluid. These models also must also be validated with representative experiments. Our previous report outlined tritium transport phenomena involved in MSRs, made suggestions on gaps in the transport dataset, and proposed an experimental test stand to test combined transport effects – tritium transport through pipe walls in a convective salt flow. In this report, we summarize an updated analysis framework for tritium transport in MSRs, report our results on hydrogen and deuterium permeation through Hastelloy N, and describe the final design of the Molten Salt Tritium Transport Experiment (MSTTE, pronounced “misty”). The MSRE provides the only wholistic experimental data set for tritium transport in MSRs and understanding the transport phenomena involved in the MSRE is crucial for future model development. One set of parameters in our analysis framework was unknown for the MSRE—surface reaction rates for tritium on Hastelloy N. This warranted our hydrogen and deuterium permeation campaign to assess the permeability, diffusivity, and solubility of hydrogen isotopes in clean Hastelloy N. Surface reaction rate constants were probed by low pressure measurements, however, no surface effects were observed in the limits of our permeation apparatus. Permeation experiments on oxidized Hastelloy N were not performed for this report but are planned in future work. The experimental test stand, MSTTE, measures combined transport properties of the salt-metal system. MSTTE is a forced convection FLiBe loop with custom designed test section to measure tritium transport through candidate structural materials. We use MSRE relevant dimensionless numbers to design and scale the test section. Hastelloy N is a candidate loop and test section material due to the relevance for the MSRE and related designs, however, other metals are being considered (e.g. 316H SS) which may better align with current vendor concepts.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Loss of Flow Conditions in a Modern Pool-type SFR and In-Pile Experiment Design

The metallic fuel safety performance under unprotected design-basis transients is a key consideration for the deployment of advanced sodium fast reactors (SFRs). Reliable data are needed to validate advanced safety codes, reduce uncertainty in cladding failure thresholds, and strengthen confidence in licensing approaches. To address this need, this report develops blueprints for a conceptual sodium loss-of-flow (LOF) experiment in the Mk-IIIR loop at the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT), providing the technical foundation for future integral testing.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Results from a controlled depleted uranium metal casting experiment designed to investigate nuclear Forensic Radiochronometry Signatures

The accurate interpretation of uranium metal 230 Th/ 234 U and 231 Pa/ 235 U radiochronometry model ages requires an understanding of how uranium parent nuclides and decay progeny ( 230 Th and 231 Pa) behave during uranium metal casting. In order to directly measure the spatial distribution of 230 Th and 231 Pa in uranium metal before and after vacuum induction melting (VIM), Los Alamos National Laboratory identified uranium metal feedstock, characterized the metal feedstock, conducted a controlled casting experiment of an approximately 120 kg uranium metal rod, and characterized the cast metal. Herein this study presents radiochronometry results and quantified 230 Th and 231 Pa VIM separation factors from bulk uranium.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Synergizing human expertise and AI efficiency with language model for microscopy operation and automated experiment design

With the advent of large language models (LLMs), in both the open source and proprietary domains, attention is turning to how to exploit such artificial intelligence (AI) systems in assisting complex scientific tasks, such as material synthesis, characterization, analysis and discovery. Here, we explore the utility of LLMs, particularly ChatGPT4, in combination with application program interfaces (APIs) in tasks of experimental design, programming workflows, and data analysis in scanning probe microscopy, using both in-house developed APIs and APIs given by a commercial vendor for instrument control. We find that the LLM can be especially useful in converting ideations of experimental workflows to executable code on microscope APIs. Beyond code generation, we find that the GPT4 is capable of analyzing microscopy images in a generic sense. At the same time, we find that GPT4 suffers from an inability to extend beyond basic analyses for more in-depth technical experimental design. We argue that an LLM specifically fine-tuned for individual scientific domains can potentially be a better language interface for converting scientific ideations from human experts to executable workflows. Such a synergy between human expertise and LLM efficiency in experimentation can open new doors for accelerating scientific research, enabling effective experimental protocols sharing in the scientific community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

IER 517: Molybdenum Critical Experiment Design [Slides]

In nuclear fuels, U-Mo metallic fuels are used in new space reactor designs and new research reactor fuels. MITR, MURR, and NBSR reactors plan on converting from different HEU fuels to a U-Mo HALEU fuel. In spend nuclear fuel, 95 Mo is one of the 15 main absorbing fission products in irradiated LWR fuel. This makes it important for criticality safety studies in transportation and reprocessing. In structural materials. Molybdenum is found commonly in alloys that make up the structural materials of nuclear reactors such as type 316 SS. Molybdenum helps to improve high temperature performance and corrosion resistance.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Local Power Impact Experiment Design for a New Fuel Type for use in the Advanced Test Reactor

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and complimentary zero-power ATR Critical (ATRC) reactor, located at Idaho National Labs (INL), are undergoing conversion from Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). Both have a variety of testing locations that can receive large variations in flux due to its unique serpentine design, consisting of five lobes (see Figure 1). Initial criticality and power distribution throughout the core are controlled by core-external outer shim control cylinders (OSCCs). Distinct test loops allow for testing at specific temperatures, pressures, and irradiation conditions. The ATR is one of the key nuclear engineering research and testing facilities within the DOE National Laboratory Complex, and the ATRC supports its operation [1]. Currently, the Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) within the National Nuclear Security Administration of the DOE is working to convert the remaining research reactors, including the ATR, from 93% HEU fuel to 19.75% LEU fuel (LEU) to support non-proliferation [2]. Extensive materials testing at INL and internationally has demonstrated that a high-density uranium molybdenum (U 10Mo) alloy can meet the performance requirements of the remaining high powered research reactors. However, there are many technical challenges to address before the conversion to LEU can be successful, including the accurate characterization of the reactor core physics with LEU fuel. Reactor physics safety evaluations currently use Monte Carlo for the 21st Century (MC21), a continuous-energy Monte Carlo radiation transport code [3]. Existing MC21 models of the ATR and ATRC cores have a validation basis for use in neutronics analyses with HEU fuel. The models are used to support safety analyses that include comparisons to the safety requirements for the reactors. However, the use of the LOWE element in the ATR and ATRC is not currently covered by the current model validation basis. To deploy the new fuel type, extensive computational reactor physics support is necessary to support the use of LOWE in the ATR and ATRC. Therefore, LOWE requires a rigorous validation basis, aligned with that of HEU fuel, that takes advantage of the existing software tools and processes currently used for the ATR and ATRC. The experiment to validate of the MC21 models for determining power, the Power Impact Validation Experiment, will consist of two flux runs in the ATRC, one with fully HEU loading and one with a single LOWE element. Both flux runs will be instrumented with 20 sets of azimuthal fission wires and 3 sets of axial fission wires, as shown in Figure 4. Standard flux run methodology will be used [4]. Power Impact Validation Experiment data will be compared against MC21 calculated data, both for absolute fission rate accuracy and to determine the relative change in fission rates between the two runs. The results of the Power Impact Validation Experiment and subsequent evaluations will provide the validation basis for MC21 for use with LOWE elements. Key features of the Power Impact Validation Experiment include: (1) Two flux runs to allow for LOWE perturbed measurements to be compared to already validated measurements taken from a full core of HEU fuel, (2) Optimization of instrumentation to balance analytical needs with practical considerations (e.g., limited time window to count beta particles from fission products), and (3) Standard ATRC core loading, including both driver positions and flux traps, to minimize cost while remaining representative of typical ATR core loading.

42 ENGINEERING↗