Impact of analytic decision making on photovoltaic degradation rate estimations using synthetic datasets
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Theristis, Marios↗
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CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH INCONSISTENT PHOTOVOLTAIC DEGRADATION RATE ESTIMATIONS.
Abstract not provided.
Theristis, Marios↗
CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH INCONSISTENT PHOTOVOLTAIC DEGRADATION RATE ESTIMATIONS.
Abstract not provided.
Theristis, Marios↗
Surrogate Model Development of Spent Fuel Degradation for Repository Performance Assessment
In model simulations of deep geologic repositories, UO 2 fuel matrix degradation typically begins as soon as the waste package breaches and groundwater contacts the fuel surface. The initial degradation rate depends on the timing of these events, burnup of the fuel, temperature, and concentrations of dissolved reactants. Estimating the initial rate of degradation is fairly straightforward, but as UO 2 corrosion products precipitate on the fuel surface and the movement of dissolved species between the fuel surface and environment is impeded by the precipitated solids, the rate is more difficult to quantify. At that point, calculating the degradation rate becomes a reactive-transport problem in which a large number of equations must be solved by iteration for a large number of grid cells at each time step. The consequence is that repository simulations, which are already expensive, become much more expensive, especially when hundreds or thousands of waste packages breach. The Fuel Matrix Degradation (FMD) model is the process model of the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign of the US Department of Energy (DOE). It calculates spent fuel degradation rates as a function of radiolysis, redox reactions, electrochemical reactions, alteration layer growth, and diffusion of reactants through the alteration layer. Like other similar fuel degradation process models, it is a complicated model requiring a large number of calculations and iterations at each time step.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Structure-dependent mechanisms for plastic degradation in the marine environment
The visible and invisible accumulation of waste plastic in our oceans is a consequence of rapidly increasing inputs and very slow degradation rates. In general, this combination of effects results in long residence times. Nevertheless, the abiological degradation rate of a specific synthetic plastic varies widely, depending on its structural characteristics at the molecular, mesoscopic, and macroscopic levels. This chapter summarizes factors that determine these rates of degradation, and describes their principal mechanisms, for several of the major types of waste plastic found in the oceans. Mechanical forces cause cracking and flaking that break macroplastics into microplastics and even smaller fragments with increasing surface-to-volume ratios. Chemical degradation rates increase with surface area, influenced by intrinsic variations in crystallinity and the presence of additives, as well as extrinsic factors such as temperature, pH, and UV light intensity. Since polyolefin-based plastics are less dense than seawater and lack hydrolysable bonds in their polymer backbones, they accumulate close to the surface of the ocean where photo-oxidation is the principal cause of C–C bond cleavage in the polymer backbone. In contrast, polyesters and polyamides are denser than seawater and they sink, experiencing less exposure to solar irradiation. However, they can also degrade by slow hydrolysis of the C–O or C–N bonds intrinsic to the polymer structures.
Maciulis, Nicholas A.↗
Long-Term Photovoltaic System Performance in Cold, Snowy Climates
As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize northern and alpine communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a barrier to large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is long-term performance uncertainty under snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, low temperatures, and high winds. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review of published silicon degradation rates in cold Koppen-Geiger climate classifications of Dfb (humid continental), Dfc (subarctic), and ET (tundra). We first analyze the system degradation rates of three subarctic ground-mounted photovoltaic sites in North America using the RdTools year-on-year method: an Al-BSF double-axis tracking site in Fairbanks, Alaska (65degrees N); a PERC and silicon heterojunction bifacial vertical and south-tilted site in Fairbanks, Alaska; and a PERC south-facing fixed-tilt site in Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories (62degrees N). Degradation rates of these newly analyzed sites vary between -0.4%/year and -1.5%/year. Combining these data with previously reported cold climate degradation rates, we show that the distribution of cold climate degradation peaks at -0.1%/year to -0.2%/year but has a large tail with rates above -0.5%/year. The average reported cold climate degradation rate is -0.45%/year, whereas the median value is -0.33%/year. These results suggest that despite frequent freeze-thaw cycles and potential exposure to high wind and snow loads, PV systems in cold climates tend to degrade slower than PV systems in warmer climates. The limited sample size of reported degradation rates in cold climates (27) motivates the need for further data acquisition and monitoring efforts as new technologies are deployed.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
PV Lifetime Project - 2025 NLR Annual Report
DOE's PV Lifetime project was initiated in 2016 with the goal of accurately characterizing the early-life evolution of photovoltaic (PV) field performance. Different PV cell and module technologies result in different initial degradation rates due to effects like light-induced degradation (LID) and light and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). To accurately characterize the initial field degradation of maximum power (Pmp) requires the use of high-accuracy indoor IV curve measurements at standard test conditions. Therefore, PV modules involved in this study are removed from the field once or twice per year and brought indoors for measurement under constant temperature and irradiance conditions. Overall annual degradation rates are as follows: our first modules to be deployed (Jinko, Trina, QCells) have annual median degradation rate between -0.4%/yr and -0.5%/yr mainly concentrated in the first year. Mission Solar, LG and Panasonic modules are all displaying modest degradation, better than -0.3% / year. Indeed, Mission Solar fielded modules degraded less than their control modules which remain indoors and un-exposed. This is also true for the LONGi monofacial modules, which had some field degradation, but not as much as the degradation of the indoor control modules. The LONGi bifacial modules on the other hand have degraded more in the field than their monofacial counterparts, although still a modest amount (-0.4 %/yr). Of the four newest module types in the study, only one has had better than average degradation. REC360NP2 (N-type TOPCon) had a slight performance increase over the first year and a half of field deployment. For the other three new module types (plus one older module type), degradation was more rapid. In our study of 16 module types, four have demonstrated degradation faster than -1%/yr: two N-type Heterojunction, one PERC bifacial and one PERC shingled module. The two heterojunction modules in our study are degrading the most rapidly. Sunpreme n-HIT bifacial modules are showing a loss rate around -1.5%/yr, for over -10% total to date. This is largely attributed to loss in front-side Isc. This is distinct from the REC 405AA-Pure modules which have degraded -6.8% in only a year and a half, for an annualized decline of -3.9 %/yr. For this module type, the decline is roughly half in Voc, with the remaining split between FF and Isc. Of the remaining two module types, Prism Solar PERC bifacial has declined -5% total since 2019, although this loss appears to have stabilized in the most recent measurement. The Solaria PowerX-400R Shingled module type has also lost around -3.2% in the first 1.5 years of field deployment. It remains to be seen if these losses will continue with time.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative (March 2020 Methodology Report)
Data for thousands of systems by multiple sources were transmitted to NREL for evaluation. Initial automated data quality assurance (QA) checks identified hundreds of systems (QA Tier 1) with high-quality meteorological and AC production data and hundreds of QA Tier 2 systems with adequate data quality. A standard RdTools analysis was conducted for these systems, evaluating performance loss on an annualized basis. To date with the systems evaluated so far, we find a median performance loss rate (aka Rd or degradation rates) for the entire fleet of -0.72%/year based on individual inverter data, which is in line with historical degradation rates previously published for modules and systems (-0.5% to -0.9% / yr, Jordan et al. 2016). A fleet-scale distribution based on revenue-grade meter data rather than inverter AC (alternating current) data yields a slightly different result. We are working to understand the difference between this result and the inverter-based result of -0.72%/year.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Performance of stainless steel interconnects with (Mn,Co) 3 O 4 -Based coating for solid oxide electrolysis
Mixed transition-metal oxide coatings are commonly applied to stainless steel interconnects for solid oxide cell stacks. Such coatings reduce oxidation and Cr evaporation rates, leading to improved degradation rate and stack lifetime. Here, the ChromLok™ MCO-based composition (Mn,Co) 3 O 4 is applied to Crofer 22 APU stainless steel and evaluated specifically for application in solid oxide electrolyzer stacks operating around 800 °C and utilizing oxygen-ion-conducting solid oxide cells. The MCO coating is found to decrease the stainless steel oxidation rate by about one order of magnitude, and decrease the Cr evaporation rate by fourfold. Furthermore, the coating also dramatically lowers the rate of area-specific resistance increase for stainless steel coupons oxidized for 500 h with constant current applied, from 33 mΩ*cm 2 kh -1 for an uncoated coupon to less than 4 mΩ*cm2 kh -1 for coated coupons. The coating is demonstrated on full-scale interconnects for single-cells, where the coating dramatically reduces degradation rate, and for a stack, which displays stable operation for 700 h.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Cold Climate Degradation: An Analysis of Double-Axis Tracked, E-W Vertical, and Fixed-Tilt Photovoltaic Deployments in Alaska
As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize remote northern communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a major barrier towards large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is performance uncertainty under extreme environmental conditions including snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, and high wind loads. Existing literature on PV degradation rates in the North is relatively limited, with published degradation rates varying between -0.2%/year (Sweden) to -1.3%/year (Scotland). At this workshop, we will present preliminary results on the long-term performance of two diverse photovoltaic sites located in Fairbanks, Alaska at 64.8 degrees N: a monofacial Al-BSF double-axis tracking site maintained by the Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC), and a bifacial PERC/SHJ E-W vertical and south-facing fixed-tilt site maintained by the Alaska Center Energy and Power (ACEP). CCHRC data has been collected over a period of 15 years, while ACEP site data has been collected over 4 years. Using the degradation analysis tool, RdTools, we will present annual system degradation rates, seasonal performance ratio, and identify potential cold climate failure mechanisms for commercially available PV technologies. This analysis will add to existing literature by directly comparing the performance of multiple PV configurations in Alaska.
bifacial↗
Module-Level Solutions For Degradation by Ionization Damage
After years of improving module efficiency while targeting mean degradation rates of 0.5 to 0.6 %/y for crystalline silicon technology, there is much evidence that the degradation rates are now increasing significantly. Contributing factors include:Radiation damage (UV-Light Induced Degradation): Trina solar: -4.5%/y degradation rate in Singapore, DOE National Laboratory Regional Test Centers showed degradation of -1% < r < -2%/y in crystalline silicon modules, Jinko Solar: -4% < r < -7% efficiency loss from 540 MJ/m-2 of UV-A light, ISFH: 15% relative power loss during of 1.8 GJ/m-2 UV exposure, attributed to H+. Electrical bias from positive system voltage (e.g., +1000 V, +1500 V) can drive ions and metallization through the encapsulation, NREL: Ion transport can affect the cell passivation, resulting in power loss of 5% to 40% in p-PERC+ (bifacial), NREL: Damage at cell rear with up to 17% power at cell fronts in n-PERT modules. Delamination can also occur due to cell surface reactions driven by light and bias.
module efficiency↗
Onymous early‐life performance degradation analysis of recent photovoltaic module technologies
Abstract The cost of photovoltaic (PV) modules has declined by 85% since 2010. To achieve this reduction, manufacturers altered module designs and bill of materials; changes that could affect module durability and reliability. To determine if these changes have affected module durability, we measured the performance degradation of 834 fielded PV modules representing 13 module types from 7 manufacturers in 3 climates over 5 years. Degradation rates ( Rd ) are highly nonlinear over time, and seasonal variations are present in some module types. Mean and median degradation rate values of −0.62%/year and −0.58%/year, respectively, are consistent with rates measured for older modules. Of the 23 systems studied, 6 have degradation rates that will exceed the warranty limits in the future, whereas 13 systems demonstrate the potential of achieving lifetimes beyond 30 years, assuming Rd trends have stabilized.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Performance Comparison of Clipping Detection Techniques in AC Power Time Series
In this research, a variety of methods were developed to detect clipping periods in AC power time series. AC power data streams associated with 36 unique systems across the United States were collected, and data points representing clipping periods were manually labeled by experts. Using this data set for training and validation, novel logic-based and machine learning (ML) approaches were developed to classify time series values as clipping or non-clipping. These approaches were compared to the RdTools method for detecting clipping periods. The logic-based and ML XGBoost approaches achieved F-scores of 85.0 and 77.6, respectively, when cross-validated against the manually labeled data, as compared to the current RdTools approach (F-score of 56.4), indicating a significant improvement at detecting clipping periods. Additionally, the effects of each clipping filter when evaluating system degradation rates were assessed, using 31 unique systems across the United States. Results indicate that estimated system degradation rate can vary based on the type of clipping filter used, by up to 0.6% degradation rate for some cases.
clipping↗
Updated sustainability status of cadmium telluride thin‐film photovoltaic systems and projections
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the up-to-date life-cycle sustainability status of cadmium-telluride based photovoltaic (PV) systems. Current production modules (Series 6 and Series 7) are analyzed in terms of their energy performance and environmental footprint and compared with the older series 4 module production and current single-crystalline Silicon (sc-Si) module production. For fixed-tilt systems with Series 6 modules operating under average US irradiation of 1800 kWh/m 2 /year, the global warming potential (GWP) is reduced from 16 g CO 2eq /kWh in Series 4 systems to 10 CO 2 eq /kWh in Series 6 systems. For operation in US-SW irradiation of 2300 kWh/m 2 /year, the GWP is reduced from 11 to 8 CO 2eq /kWh and for 1-axis tracking systems operating in Phoenix, Arizona, with point-of array irradiation of 3051 kWh/m 2 /year the GWP is reduced to 6.5 CO 2eq /kWh. Similar reductions have happened in all environmental indicators. Energy payback times (EPBT) of currently installed systems range from 0.6 years for fixed–tilt ground–mounted installations at average US irradiation at latitude tilt installations to 0.3 years for one-axis trackers at high US-SW irradiation, considering average fossil-fuel dominated electricity grids with fuel to electricity conversion efficiency of 0.3. The resulting energy return on energy investment (EROI) also depends on the conversion efficiency of the electricity grid and on the operation life expectance. For a 30-year operational life and grid conversion efficiency of 0.3, EROI ranges from 50 (at US average irradiation) to 70 for US-SW irradiation. The EROI declines with increased grid conversion efficiency; for CdTe PV operating in south California with grid conversion efficiency of 49%, the EROI is about 50 and is projected to fall to 30 when the state's 2030 target of 80% renewable energy penetration materializes. Material alternatives that show a potential of further reductions in degradation rates and materials for enhanced encapsulation that would enable longer operation lives have also been investigated. A degradation rate of 0.3%/year, which has been verified by accelerated testing, is assumed in 30-year scenarios; this is projected to be reduced to 0.2%/year in the near-term and potentially to 0.1%/year in the longer term. With such low degradation rates and enhanced edge-sealing, modules can last 40- to 50-years. Consequently, all impact indicators will be proportionally reduced while EROI will increase. This detailed LCA was conducted according to ISO standards and IEA PVPS Task 12 guidelines. Furthermore, the study revealed that the choices of system models, methods and temporal system boundaries can significantly impact the results and points out to the need to include assumptions regarding these choices in the “transparency in reporting” requirements listed in the IEA PVPS Task 12 Guidelines.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau
The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Investigation of Membrane Chemical Degradation as a Function of Catalyst Platinum Loading
Membrane chemical degradation is one of many factors that can impact fuel cell durability. Additionally, the fuel cell’s lifetime heavily depends on the membrane and its ability to maintain chemical and mechanical integrity. Previous studies indicate that chemical degradation is due to the formation of hydroxyl radicals that attack the polymer structure resulting in membrane thinning, pinhole formation, and the release of fluoride and sulfate ions. Membrane durability was investigated using ultra-low Pt electrode loadings (≤ 0.1 mg Pt cm -2 ). Accelerated stress testing (US-DOE protocols) demonstrated that the degradation rate was found to increase with higher Pt loadings. This is most likely due to more heterogeneous sites for radical formation due to hydrogen crossover to the cathode. We also explored membrane degradation rates while varying catalyst layer thickness, ionomer to carbon ratio, and types of carbon support. All of the aforementioned variables impact the membrane degradation rates.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗