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CalderaCast User Manual Version 1.0

CalderaCast is a user-friendly web-based tool for electrical-load forecast, providing stakeholders with a fully customizable decision-support framework that estimates the likely power draw from a possible future electric-vehicle (EV) charging station at a given location on a given day along an alternative fuel corridor (AFC). These EV charging profiles are accurately modeled in CalderaCast using the Caldera software framework developed by Idaho National Laboratories (INL), reflecting the realistic charging levels observed in actual charge events. This tool was developed as part of the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, which is quickly generating substantial interest from would-be charging station operators (CSO), large and small electric utilities, and state transportation planners, some of whom had not seriously considered EV charging previously. All these entities—with or without background in EV infrastructure—must estimate the electricity load that a proposed charging station will generate. This load forecast is critically important for a utility to properly assess the capacity of their distribution network to support the proposed station or properly size grid upgrades for potential load growth due to future EV adoption, vehicle technology improvements, or station growth. This document describes each aspect of the CalderaCast tool and provides guidance to users who are interested in utilizing the tool for their work.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗

Emerging Trends and Technologies Used for the Identification, Detection, and Characterisation of Plant-Parasitic Nematode Infestation in Crops

Accurate identification and estimation of the population densities of microscopic, soil-dwelling plant-parasitic nematodes (PPNs) are essential, as PPNs cause significant economic losses in agricultural production systems worldwide. This study presents a comprehensive review of emerging techniques used for the identification of PPNs, including morphological identification, molecular diagnostics such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), high-throughput sequencing, meta barcoding, remote sensing, hyperspectral analysis, and image processing. Classical morphological methods require a microscope and nematode taxonomist to identify species, which is laborious and time-consuming. Alternatively, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has emerged as a reliable and efficient approach for PPN identification and quantification; however, the cost associated with the reagents, instrumentation, and careful optimisation of reaction conditions can be prohibitive. High-throughput sequencing and meta-barcoding are used to study the biodiversity of all tropical groups of nematodes, not just PPNs, and are useful for describing changes in soil ecology. Convolutional neural network (CNN) methods are necessary to automate the detection and counting of PPNs from microscopic images, including complex cases like tangled nematodes. Remote sensing and hyperspectral methods offer non-invasive approaches to estimate nematode infestations and facilitate early diagnosis of plant stress caused by nematodes and rapid management of PPNs. This review provides a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers involved in nematology and plant protection. It highlights the importance of fast, efficient, and robust identification protocols and decision-support tools in mitigating the impact of PPNs on global agriculture and food security.

Plant Sciences↗

From where they look to what they think: Determining controller cognitive strategies from oculometer scanning data

The behavior and cognition of air traffic controllers from oculometer scanning data already obtained for another purpose was studied. There was very little work done to develop models of air traffic controllers, much of what was done was done at Langley. One aim of developing such models is to use them as the basis of decision-support or expert-system tools to assist controllers in their tasks. Such tools are more likely to be effective if they incorporate the strategies that controllers actually use, rather than steering them in what might be felt to be unnatural directions.

Cushing, Steven↗

A decision support tool for synchronizing technology advances with strategic mission objectives

Successful accomplishment of the objectives of many long-range future missions in areas such as space systems, land-use planning, and natural resource management requires significant technology developments. This paper describes the development of a decision-support data-derived tool called MisTec for helping strategic planners to determine technology development alternatives and to synchronize the technology development schedules with the performance schedules of future long-term missions. Special attention is given to the operations, concept, design, and functional capabilities of the MisTec. The MisTec was initially designed for manned Mars mission, but can be adapted to support other high-technology long-range strategic planning situations, making it possible for a mission analyst, planner, or manager to describe a mission scenario, determine the technology alternatives for making the mission achievable, and to plan the R&D activity necessary to achieve the required technology advances.

Hornstein, Rhoda S.↗

A recent Cleanroom success story: The Redwing project

Redwing is the largest completed Cleanroom software engineering project in IBM, both in terms of lines of code and project staffing. The product provides a decision-support facility that utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) technology for predicting and preventing complex operating problems in an MVS environment. The project used the Cleanroom process for development and realized a defect rate of 2.6 errors/KLOC, measured from first execution. This represents the total amount of errors that were found in testing and installation at three field test sites. Development productivity was 486 LOC/PM, which included all development labor expended in design specification through completion of incremental testing. In short, the Redwing team produced a complex systems software product with an extraordinarily low error rate, while maintaining high productivity. All of this was accomplished by a project team using Cleanroom for the first time. An 'introductory implementation' of Cleanroom was defined and used on Redwing. This paper describes the quality and productivity results, the Redwing project, and how Cleanroom was implemented.

Hausler, Philip A.↗

Pilot in Command: An Illustration of Autonomous Flight Management

Several years of NASA research have produced the concept for air traffic management called "Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management," a major operational advancement that should significantly increase the capacity of the National Airspace System. A key component, "Autonomous Flight Management," introduces a new class of aircraft operations in which pilots are authorized to freely maneuver and execute optimal trajectories independent from air traffic controllers. These aircraft operators would benefit from significant increases in flexibility to optimize all flight operations and from avoiding most of the delays associated with ground-controlled operations. Responsibilities for aircraft separation and arrival flow conformance are transferred to the flight deck, and the pilots use computerized decision-support tools to accomplish these tasks. A research prototype of these tools called the "Autonomous Operations Planner" is being developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. This 14-minute video illustrates Autonomous Flight Management from the airline pilot's perspective.

Wing, David J.↗

MIMIC II: a massive temporal ICU patient database to support research in intelligent patient monitoring

Development and evaluation of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) decision-support systems would be greatly facilitated by the availability of a large-scale ICU patient database. Following our previous efforts with the MIMIC (Multi-parameter Intelligent Monitoring for Intensive Care) Database, we have leveraged advances in networking and storage technologies to develop a far more massive temporal database, MIMIC II. MIMIC II is an ongoing effort: data is continuously and prospectively archived from all ICU patients in our hospital. MIMIC II now consists of over 800 ICU patient records including over 120 gigabytes of data and is growing. A customized archiving system was used to store continuously up to four waveforms and 30 different parameters from ICU patient monitors. An integrated user-friendly relational database was developed for browsing of patients' clinical information (lab results, fluid balance, medications, nurses' progress notes). Based upon its unprecedented size and scope, MIMIC II will prove to be an important resource for intelligent patient monitoring research, and will support efforts in medical data mining and knowledge-discovery.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Applications of telemedicine in the United States space program

Since the beginning of human space flight, NASA has been placing humans in extreme and remote environments. There are many challenges in maintaining humans in outer space, including the provision of life-support systems, radiation shielding, and countermeasures for minimizing the effect of microgravity. Because astronauts are selected for their health, among other factors, disease and illness are minimized. However, it is still of great importance to have appropriate medical care systems in place to address illness and injury should they occur. With the exception of the Apollo program, exploration of space has been limited to missions that are within several hundred miles of the surface of the Earth. At the drawn of the 21st century and the new millennium, human exploration will be focused on operation of the International Space Station (ISS) and preparation for human missions to Mars. These missions will present inherent risks to human health, and, therefore, appropriate plans must be established to address these challenges and risks. Crews of long-duration missions must become more independent from ground controllers. New systems, protocols, and procedures are currently being perfected. Application of emerging technologies in information systems and telecommunications will be critical to inflight medical care. Application of these technologies through telemedicine will provide crew members access to information, noninvasive procedures for assessing health status, and guidance through the integration of sensors, holography, decision-support systems, and virtual environments. These technologies will also serve as a basis to enhance training and medical education. The design of medical care for space flight should lead to a redesign of the practice of medicine on Earth.

Review, Tutorial↗

The Development of the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (MCTMA): Traffic Flow Management Research in a Multi-Facility Environment

The Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) is a decision-support tool for traffic managers and air traffic controllers that provides traffic flow visualization and other flow management tools. TMA creates an efficiently sequenced and safely spaced schedule for arrival traffic that meets but does not exceed specified airspace system constraints. TMA is being deployed at selected facilities throughout the National Airspace System in the US as part of the FAA's Free Flight Phase 1 program. TMA development and testing, and its current deployment, focuses on managing the arrival capacity for single major airports within single terminal areas and single en route centers. The next phase of development for this technology is the expansion of the TMA capability to complex facilities in which a terminal area or airport is fed by multiple en route centers, thus creating a multicenter TMA functionality. The focus of the multi-center TMA (McTMA) development is on the busy facilities in the Northeast comdor of the US. This paper describes the planning and development of McTMA and the challenges associated with adapting a successful traffic flow management tool for a very complex airspace.

Lee, Katharine K.↗

An Exploration of Radiation Physics in Electromagnetics

Contents include the following: NASA's Missions and Aeronautics Research. Today's Air Traffic Control System. Development of Decision-Support Tools. The Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS). The Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). The Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA). The Surface Management System (SMS). Future Directions: The Joint Planning and Development Office.

Lee, Katherine K.↗

Evaluation of a Potential for Enhancing the Decision Support System of the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center with NASA Earth Science Research Results

NASA's objective for the Applied Sciences Program of the Science Mission Directorate is to expand and accelerate the realization of economic and societal benefits from Earth science, information, and technology. This objective is accomplished by using a systems approach to facilitate the incorporation of Earth observations and predictions into the decision-support tools used by partner organizations to provide essential services to society. The services include management of forest fires, coastal zones, agriculture, weather prediction, hazard mitigation, aviation safety, and homeland security. In this way, NASA's long-term research programs yield near-term, practical benefits to society. The Applied Sciences Program relies heavily on forging partnerships with other Federal agencies to accomplish its objectives. NASA chooses to partner with agencies that have existing connections with end-users, information infrastructure already in place, and decision support systems that can be enhanced by the Earth science information that NASA is uniquely poised to provide (NASA, 2004).

Blonski, Slawomir↗

Full Life-Cycle Defect Management Assessment: Initial Inspection Data Collection Results and Research Questions for Further Study

It is often the case in software projects that when schedule and budget resources are limited, the Verification and Validation (V&V) activities suffer. Fewer V&V activities can be afforded and moreover, short-term challenges can result in V&V activities being scaled back or dropped altogether. As a result, too often the default solution is to save activities for improving software quality until too late in the life-cycle, relying on late-term code inspections followed by thorough testing activities to reduce defect counts to acceptable levels. As many project managers realize, however, this is a resource-intensive way of achieving the required quality for software. The Full Life-cycle Defect Management Assessment Initiative, funded by NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance under the Software Assurance Research Program, aims to address these problems by: Improving the effectiveness of early life-cycle V&V activities to make their benefits more attractive to team leads. Specifically, we focus on software inspection, a proven method that can be applied to any software work product, long before executable code has been developed; Better communicating this effectiveness to software development teams, along with suggestions for parameters to improve in the future to increase effectiveness; Analyzing the impact of early life-cycle V&V on the effectiveness and cost required for late life-cycle V&V activities, such as testing, in order to make the tradeoffs more apparent. This white paper reports on an initial milestone in this work, the development of a preliminary model of inspection effectiveness across multiple NASA Centers. This model contributes toward reaching our project goals by: Allowing an examination of inspection parameters, across different types of projects and different work products, for an analysis of factors that impact defect detection effectiveness. Allowing a comparison of this NASA-specific model to existing recommendations in the literature regarding how to plan effective inspections. Forming a baseline model which can be extended to incorporate factors describing: the numbers and types of defects that are missed by inspections; how such defects flow downstream through software development phases; how effectively they can be caught by testing activities in the late stages of development. The model has been implemented in a prototype web-enabled decision-support tool which allows developers to enter their inspection data and receive feedback based on a comparison against the model. The tool also allows users to access reusable materials (such as checklists) from projects included in the baseline. Both the tool itself and the model underlying it will continue to be extended throughout the remainder of this initiative. As results of analyzing inspection effectiveness for defect containment are determined, they can be shared via the tool and also via updates to existing training courses on metrics and software inspections. Moreover, the tool will help satisfy key CMMI requirements for the NASA Centers, as it will enable NASA to take a global view across peer review results for various types of projects to identify systemic problems. This analysis can result in continuous improvements to the approach to verification.

Shull, Forrest↗

Enhancements and Evolution of the Real Time Mission Monitor

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM has proven extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, mission scientists, instrument scientists and program managers alike appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. We have received numerous plaudits from a wide variety of scientists who used RTMM during recent field campaigns including the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) missions, the 2007-2008 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane flights and the 2008 Soil Moisture Active-Passive Validation Experiment (SMAP-VEX). Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated for altitude, latitude, longitude, flight leg distance, cumulative distance, flight leg time, cumulative time, and satellite overpass intersections. The resultant flight plan is then generated in KML and quickly posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and then compare it to the actual real time flight progress. A description of the system architecture, components, and applications along with reviews and animations of RTMM during the field campaigns, plus planned enhancements and future opportunities will be presented.

Goodman, Michael↗

Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM is extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, scientists, and managers appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. A broad spectrum of interdisciplinary scientists used RTMM during field campaigns including the hurricane-focused 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane Noel flight, 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), plus a soil moisture (SMAP-VEX) and two arctic research experiments (ARCTAS) in 2008. Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated "on the fly". The resultant flight plan is then immediately posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and subsequently compare it to the actual real time flight progress. We are planning additional capabilities to RTMM including collaborations with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

Goodman, H. Michael↗

Survey and Method for Determination of Trajectory Predictor Requirements

A survey of air-traffic-management researchers, representing a broad range of automation applications, was conducted to document trajectory-predictor requirements for future decision-support systems. Results indicated that the researchers were unable to articulate a basic set of trajectory-prediction requirements for their automation concepts. Survey responses showed the need to establish a process to help developers determine the trajectory-predictor-performance requirements for their concepts. Two methods for determining trajectory-predictor requirements are introduced. A fast-time simulation method is discussed that captures the sensitivity of a concept to the performance of its trajectory-prediction capability. A characterization method is proposed to provide quicker, yet less precise results, based on analysis and simulation to characterize the trajectory-prediction errors associated with key modeling options for a specific concept. Concept developers can then identify the relative sizes of errors associated with key modeling options, and qualitatively determine which options lead to significant errors. The characterization method is demonstrated for a case study involving future airport surface traffic management automation. Of the top four sources of error, results indicated that the error associated with accelerations to and from turn speeds was unacceptable, the error associated with the turn path model was acceptable, and the error associated with taxi-speed estimation was of concern and needed a higher fidelity concept simulation to obtain a more precise result

Rentas, Tamika L.↗

NASA Applied Sciences Program

NASA's strategic Goals: a) Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of human spaceflight program to focus on exploration. b) Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs. NASA's partnership efforts in global modeling and data assimilation over the next decade will shorten the distance from observations to answers for important, leading-edge science questions. NASA's Applied Sciences program will continue the Agency's efforts in benchmarking the assimilation of NASA research results into policy and management decision-support tools that are vital for the Nation's environment, economy, safety, and security. NASA also is working with NOAH and inter-agency forums to transition mature research capabilities to operational systems, primarily the polar and geostationary operational environmental satellites, and to utilize fully those assets for research purposes.

Estes, Sue M.↗

The 2nd Generation Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) Development

The NASA Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decisionmaking for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery and orbit data, radar and other surface observations (e.g., lightning location network data), airborne navigation and instrument data sets, model output parameters, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. In order to improve the usefulness and efficiency of the RTMM system, capabilities are being developed to allow the end-user to easily configure RTMM applications based on their mission-specific requirements and objectives. This second generation RTMM is being redesigned to take advantage of the Google plug-in capabilities to run multiple applications in a web browser rather than the original single application Google Earth approach. Currently RTMM employs a limited Service Oriented Architecture approach to enable discovery of mission specific resources. We are expanding the RTMM architecture such that it will more effectively utilize the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Web Enablement services and other new technology software tools and components. These modifications and extensions will result in a robust, versatile RTMM system that will greatly increase flexibility of the user to choose which science data sets and support applications to view and/or use. The improvements brought about by RTMM 2nd generation system will provide mission planners and airborne scientists with enhanced decision-making tools and capabilities to more efficiently plan, prepare and execute missions, as well as to playback and review past mission data. To paraphrase the old television commercial RTMM doesn t make the airborne science, it makes the airborne science easier.

Blakeslee, Richard↗