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Enabling Dark Energy Measurements from DESI and LSST (Final Technical Report)

This grant enabled efforts to lead the Survey Validation of the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) sample for DESI, entailing intensive work to prepare target samples, test their performance with DESI data, and validate that the requirements of the survey for this key sample are met. Luminous Red Galaxies represent the gold standard target class for Baryon Acoustic Observation experiments to study Dark Energy. It also funded work to co-leading the Follow-up Task Force within the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC), which is intended to help develop collaborations with external groups and to produce cross-working group proposals for telescope time, policy proposals and white papers as needed in order to help the collaboration obtain and make use of complementary data which will strengthen LSST Dark Energy constraints. The PI has been particularly engaged in efforts to obtain access to spectroscopic training sets for LSST photometric redshifts in the first years of the survey, which requires developing relationships with groups that are obtaining such data for other purposes. This group has evolved into an External Synergies working group within DESC, also co-led by the PI. These groups have developed white papers for Astro2020, letters of intent and white papers for Snowmass2021, and a response to a DOE-NASA RFI. It also has enabled smaller contributions to improving LSST DESC pipeline infrastructure for photometric redshifts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Addressing Experimental Challenges in Probing Dark Energy with Accuracy and Precision with the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space & Time (LSST)

With support from this award, the Stanford group under the leadership of PI Patricia Burchat focused on pixel-level algorithms that are key to the investigation of dark energy with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The work was carried out through strong engagement in the DOE-supported LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), for which the PI served as Deputy Spokesperson (07/2019 - 07/2021) and Technical Coordinator (07/2021 - 07/2023). Members of the Burchat group are Full DESC members and are among scientists who have been accepted to join the Rubin Observatory System Integration, Test, and Commissioning (SIT-Com) effort. The specific intellectual focus of the group was the optimization of gravitational lensing as a probe of the evolution of the distribution of dark matter in space and time to learn about the nature of dark energy. The Stanford group pursued an integrated research program to understand in detail, and then remediate or calibrate, systematic effects that could limit the sensitivity of the LSST to cosmic shear as a dark energy probe -- particularly those related to our understanding of the atmospheric point spread function (PSF), challenges associated with blended galaxy images, and impacts of residual camera artifacts. Key to this work was developing, enhancing, and validating the fidelity of simulations that play a key role in the development of our understanding of subtle systematic biases and then using these simulations to develop techniques to characterize and mitigate biases, and associated algorithms for implementation in the LSST or DESC science pipelines. The group’s work included contributions to the open-source GalSim simulation package, which is widely used in the community; simulations and studies of spatial correlations of atmospheric PSFs; studies of temporal correlations of the atmospheric PSF; impacts of chromatic PSFs on cosmic shear calibration; continued studies of anisotropic Gaussian process interpolation of PSF models across the focal plane; and measuring and mitigating impacts of residual camera artifacts on cosmic shear. A primary impact of this work is that it increases the scientific discovery potential of the DOE and NSF investments in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space \& Time, by addressing challenges in interpreting astronomical images through more accurate descriptions of the blurring of images due to the atmosphere. Specifically, this work impacts our ability to understand the fundamental nature of dark energy.

Burchat, Patricia Rose↗

Magnetic fields with general omnigenity

Omnigenity is a desirable property of toroidal magnetic fields that ensures confinement of trapped particles. Confining charged particles is a basic requirement for any fusion power plant design, but it can be difficult to satisfy with the non-axisymmetric magnetic fields used by the stellarator approach. Every ideal magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium previously found to approximate omnigenity has been either axisymmetric, quasi-symmetric or has poloidally closed contours of magnetic field strength $B$ . However, general omnigenous equilibria are a much larger design space than these subsets. A new model is presented and employed in the DESC stellarator optimization suite to represent and discover the full parameter space of omnigenous equilibria. Although exact omnigenity aside from quasi-symmetry is impossible, these results reveal that excellent particle confinement can be achieved in practice. Examples far from quasi-symmetry with poloidally, helically and toroidally closed $B$ contours are attained with DESC and shown to have low neoclassical collisional transport and fast particle losses.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Generating synthetic cosmological data with GalSampler

As part of the effort to meet the needs of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC) for accurate, realistically complex mock galaxy catalogues, in this work we have developed galsampler, an open-source python package that assists in generating large volumes of synthetic cosmological data. The key idea behind galsampler is to recast hydrodynamical simulations and semi-analytic models as physically motivated galaxy libraries. galsampler populates a new, larger volume halo catalogue with galaxies drawn from the baseline library; by using weighted sampling guided by empirical modelling techniques, galsampler inherits statistical accuracy from the empirical model and physically motivated complexity from the baseline library. We have recently used galsampler to produce the cosmoDC 2 extragalactic catalogue made for the LSST DESC Data Challenge 2 . Using cosmoDC 2 as a guiding example, we outline how galsampler can continue to support ongoing and near-future galaxy surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey, the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, WFIRST, and Euclid.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validating Synthetic Galaxy Catalogs for Dark Energy Science in the LSST Era

Large simulation efforts are required to provide synthetic galaxy catalogs for ongoing and upcoming cosmology surveys. These extragalactic catalogs are being used for many diverse purposes covering a wide range of scientific topics. In order to be useful, they must offer realistically complex information about the galaxies they contain. Hence, it is critical to implement a rigorous validation procedure that ensures that the simulated galaxy properties faithfully capture observations and delivers an assessment of the level of realism attained by the catalog. We present here a suite of validation tests that have been developed by the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC). We discuss how the inclusion of each test is driven by the scientific targets for static ground-based dark energy science and by the availability of suitable validation data. The validation criteria that are used to assess the performance of a catalog are flexible and depend on the science goals. We illustrate the utility of this suite by showing examples for the validation of cosmoDC2, the extragalactic catalog recently released for the LSST DESC second Data Challenge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The catalog-to-cosmology framework for weak lensing and galaxy clustering for LSST

We present TXPipe, a modular, automated and reproducible pipeline for ingesting catalog data and performing all the calculations required to obtain quality-assured two-point measurements of lensing and clustering, and their covariances, with the metadata necessary for parameter estimation. The pipeline is developed within the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), and designed for cosmology analyses using LSST data. In this paper, we present the pipeline for the so-called 3x2pt analysis -- a combination of three two-point functions that measure the auto- and cross-correlation between galaxy density and shapes. We perform the analysis both in real and harmonic space using TXPipe and other LSST-DESC tools. We validate the pipeline using Gaussian simulations and show that it accurately measures data vectors and recovers the input cosmology to the accuracy level required for the first year of LSST data under this simplified scenario. We also apply the pipeline to a realistic mock galaxy sample extracted from the CosmoDC2 simulation suite (Korytov et al. 2019). TXPipe establishes a baseline framework that can be built upon as the LSST survey proceeds. Furthermore, the pipeline is designed to be easily extended to science probes beyond the 3x2pt analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Studies with LSST using the Photon Simulator (Final Report)

This grant funded the development and dissemination of the Photon Simulator (PhoSim) for the purpose of studying dark energy at high precision with the upcoming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) astronomical survey. The work was in collaboration with the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC). Several detailed physics improvements were made in the optics, atmosphere and sensor, a number of validation studies were performed, and a significant number of usability features were implemented. Future work in DESC will use PhoSim as the image simulation tool for data challenges used by the analysis groups.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Cohesive Deep Drilling Field Strategy for LSST Cosmology

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will image billions of astronomical objects in the wide–fast–deep primary survey and in a set of minisurveys including intensive observations of a group of deep drilling fields (DDFs). The DDFs are a critical piece of three key aspects of the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) cosmological measurements: they provide a required calibration for photometric redshifts (photo- z ) and weak gravitational lensing (WL) measurements and they directly contribute to cosmological constraints from the most distant Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We present a set of cohesive DDF strategies fulfilling science requirements relevant to DESC and following the guidelines of the Survey Cadence Optimization Committee. We propose a method to estimate the observing strategy parameters and we perform simulations of the corresponding surveys. We define a set of metrics for each science case to assess the performance of the proposed observing strategies. We show that the most promising results are achieved with deep rolling surveys characterized by two sets of fields: ultradeep fields ( z ≲ 1.1) observed at a high cadence with a large number of visits over a limited number of seasons, and deep fields ( z ≲ 0.7), observed with a cadence of ~3 nights for 10 yr. These encouraging results should be confirmed with realistic simulations using the LSST scheduler. A DDF budget of ~8.5% is required to design observing strategies satisfying all the cosmological requirements. A lower DDF budget leads to surveys that either do not fulfill the photo- z /WL requirements or are not optimal for SN Ia cosmology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Optimization of nonlinear turbulence in stellarators

We present new stellarator equilibria that have been optimized for reduced turbulent transport using nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations within the optimization loop. The optimization routine involves coupling the pseudo-spectral GPU-native gyrokinetic code GX with the stellarator equilibrium and optimization code DESC . Since using GX allows for fast nonlinear simulations, we directly optimize for reduced nonlinear heat fluxes. To handle the noisy heat flux traces returned by these simulations, we employ the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) method that only uses two objective function evaluations for a simple estimate of the gradient. We show several examples that optimize for both reduced heat fluxes and good quasi-symmetry as a proxy for low neoclassical transport. Finally, we run full transport simulations using the T3D stellarator transport code to evaluate the changes in the macroscopic profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Narrow operator models of stellarator equilibria in Fourier Zernike basis

Numerical computation of the ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium magnetic field is at the base of stellarator optimisation and provides the starting point for solving more sophisticated partial differential equations like transport or turbulence models. Conventional approaches solve for a single stationary point of the ideal MHD equations, which is fully defined by three invariants and the numerical scheme employed by the solver. We present the first numerical approach that can solve for a continuous distribution of equilibria with fixed boundary and rotational transform, varying only the pressure invariant. This approach minimises the force residual by optimising parameters of multilayer perceptrons that map from a scalar pressure multiplier to the Fourier Zernike basis as implemented in the modern stellarator equilibrium solver DESC.

fusion plasma↗

Spectrally accurate, reverse-mode differentiable bounce-averaging algorithm and its applications

We present a fast, spectrally (exponentially) accurate, automatically differentiable bounce-averaging algorithm that is used to simplify kinetic models. Using this algorithm, implemented in the DESC stellarator optimisation suite, we can perform efficient optimisation of many objectives to improve stellarator performance, such as the effective ripple 𝜖 eff metric for the neoclassical transport coefficient in the low collisionality regime and proxies for energetic particle confinement. For the first time, we optimise a finite-beta stellarator to directly reduce neoclassical ripple transport using reverse-mode differentiation. This ensures the computational cost of differentiation is independent of the number of controllable parameters.

fusion plasma↗

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Omnigenous stellarators with improved ideal and kinetic ballooning stability

Omnigenity is a property of a magnetic field which ensures confinement of trapped particles. It is a necessary requirement for any high-performance stellarator. After creating an omnigenous equilibrium, one must also ensure reduced transport resulting from kinetic and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities. To this end, we leverage the GPU-accelerated DESC optimization suite, which is used to design stable, finite-β omnigenous equilibria with poloidal, toroidal, and helical symmetry, achieving Mercier, ideal ballooning, and as a consequence, improved kinetic ballooning stability. We discover stellarators with second stability, a regime of large pressure gradient where an equilibrium becomes ideal ballooning stable, and demonstrate and explore both using theory and gyrokinetic simulations the connection between ideal and kinetic ballooning stability.

optimization↗

Tomographic galaxy clustering with the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam first year public data release

We analyze the clustering of galaxies in the first public data release of the HSC Subaru Strategic Program. Despite the relatively small footprints of the observed fields, the data are an excellent proxy for the deep photometric datasets that will be acquired by LSST, and are therefore an ideal test bed for the analysis methods being implemented by the LSST DESC. We select a magnitude limited sample with i<24.5 and analyze it in four redshift bins covering 0.15≲z≲1.5. We carry out a Fourier-space analysis of the two-point clustering of this sample, including all auto- and cross-correlations. We demonstrate the use of map-level deprojection methods to account for fluctuations in the galaxy number density caused by observational systematics. Through an HOD analysis, we place constraints on the characteristic halo masses of this sample, finding a good fit up to scales k max = 1Mpc –1 , including both auto- and cross-correlations. Our results show monotonically decreasing average halo masses, which can be interpreted in terms of the drop-out of red galaxies at high redshifts for a flux-limited sample. In terms of photometric redshift systematics, we show that additional care is needed in order to marginalize over uncertainties in the redshift distribution in galaxy clustering, and that these uncertainties can be constrained by including cross-correlations. We are able to make a ~3σ detection of lensing magnification in the HSC data. Our results are stable to variations in σ 8 and Ω c and we find constraints that agree well with measurements from Planck and low-redshift probes. Lastly, we use our pipeline to study the clustering of galaxies as a function of limiting flux, and provide a simple fitting function for the linear galaxy bias for magnitude limited samples as a function of limiting magnitude and redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias

The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of probabilistic photometric redshift estimation approaches for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

Many scientific investigations of photometric galaxy surveys require redshift estimates, whose uncertainty properties are best encapsulated by photometric redshift (photo-z) posterior probability density functions (PDFs). A plethora of photo-z PDF estimation methodologies abound, producing discrepant results with no consensus on a preferred approach. We present the results of a comprehensive experiment comparing twelve photo-z algorithms applied to mock data produced forLarge Synoptic Survey Telescope The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (lsst) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (desc). By supplying perfect prior information, in the form of the complete template library and a representative training set as inputs to each code, we demonstrate the impact of the assumptions underlying each technique on the output photo-z PDFs. In the absence of a notion of true, unbiased photo-z PDFs, we evaluate and interpret multiple metrics of the ensemble properties of the derived photo-z PDFs as well as traditional reductions to photo-z point estimates. Additionally, we report systematic biases and overall over/under-breadth of the photo-z PDFs of many popular codes, which may indicate avenues for improvement in the algorithms or implementations. Furthermore, we raise attention to the limitations of established metrics for assessing photo-z PDF accuracy; though we identify the conditional density estimate (CDE) loss as a promising metric of photo-z PDF performance in the case where true redshifts are available but true photo-z PDFs are not, we emphasize the need for science-specific performance metrics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulating image coaddition with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope – I. Simulation methodology and general results

The upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will carry out a wide-area survey in the near-infrared. A key science objective is the measurement of cosmic structure via weak gravitational lensing. Roman data will be undersampled, which introduces new challenges in the measurement of source galaxy shapes; a potential solution is to use linear algebra-based coaddition techniques such as imcom that combine multiple undersampled images to produce a single oversampled output mosaic with a desired ‘target’ point spread function (PSF). We present here an initial application of imcom to 0.64 square degrees of simulated Roman data, based on the Roman branch of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) simulation. We show that imcom runs successfully on simulated data that includes features such as plate scale distortions, chip gaps, detector defects, and cosmic ray masks. We simultaneously propagate grids of injected sources and simulated noise fields as well as the full simulation. We quantify the residual deviations of the PSF from the target (the ‘leakage’), as well as noise properties of the output images; we discuss how the overall tiling pattern as well as Moiré patterns appear in the final leakage and noise maps. We include appendices on interpolation algorithms and the interaction of undersampling with image processing operations that may be of broader applicability. The companion paper (‘Paper II’) explores the implications for weak lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Towards Precision Cluster Cosmology with LSST (Final Report)

The research projects carried out under this award aim to reduce the systematic uncertainties on cluster mass estimates, especially for weak-lensing masses, in preparation for cluster cosmology with LSST, and to apply the developed algorithms to LSST precursor data. Much of this work took place within the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), with additional projects carried out within our research group and with close collaborators.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗