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Towards Designing Graceful Degradation into Trajectory Based Operations: A Human-Machine System Integration Approach

One of the most fundamental changes to the air traffic management system in NextGen is the concept of trajectory based operations (TBO). With the introduction of such change, system safety and resilience is a critical concern, in particular, the ability of systems to gracefully degrade. In order to design graceful degradation into a TBO envrionment, knowledge of the potential causes of degradation, and appropriate solutions, is required. In addition, previous research has predominantly explored the technological contribution to graceful degradation, frequently neglecting to consider the role of the human operator, specifically, air traffic controllers (ATCOs). This is out of step with real-world operations, and potentially limits an ecologically valid understanding of achieving graceful degradation in an air traffic control (ATC) environment. The following literature review aims to identify and summarize the literature to date on the potential causes of degradation in ATC and the solutions that may be applied within a TBO context, with a specific focus on the contribution of the air traffic controller. A framework of graceful degradation, developed from the literature, is presented. It is argued that in order to achieve graceful degradation within TBO, a human-system integration approach must be applied.

human-system integration

Quantifying Long-Term Changes in Carbon Stocks and Forest Structure from Amazon Forest Degradation

Despite sustained declines in Amazon deforestation, forest degradation from logging and firecontinues to threaten carbon stocks, habitat, and biodiversity in frontier forests along the Amazon arcof deforestation. Limited data on the magnitude of carbon losses and rates of carbon recoveryfollowing forest degradation have hindered carbon accounting efforts and contributed to incompletenational reporting to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Wecombined annual time series of Landsat imagery and high-density airborne lidar data to characterizethe variability, magnitude, and persistence of Amazon forest degradation impacts on abovegroundcarbon density (ACD) and canopy structure. On average, degraded forests contained 45.1% of thecarbon stocks in intact forests, and differences persisted even after 15 years of regrowth. Incomparison to logging, understory fires resulted in the largest and longest-lasting differences in ACD.Heterogeneity in burned forest structure varied by fire severity and frequency. Forests with a historyof one, two, and three or more fires retained only 54.4%, 25.2%, and 7.6% of intact ACD,respectively, when measured after a year of regrowth. Unlike the additive impact of successive fires,selective logging before burning did not explain additional variability in modeled ACD loss andrecovery of burned forests. Airborne lidar also provides quantitative measures of habitat structure thatcan aid the estimation of co-benefits of avoided degradation. Notably, forest carbon stocks recoveredfaster than attributes of canopy structure that are critical for biodiversity in tropical forests, includingthe abundance of tall trees. We provide the first comprehensive look-up table of emissions factors forspecific degradation pathways at standard reporting intervals in the Amazon. Estimated carbon lossand recovery trajectories provide an important foundation for assessing the long-term contributionsfrom forest degradation to regional carbon cycling and advance our understanding of the currentstate of frontier forests.

Rappaport, Danielle I.

Towards Designing Graceful Degradation into Trajectory Based Operations: A Human-Machine System Integration Approach

One of the most fundamental changes to the air traffic management system in NextGen is the concept of trajectory based operations (TBO). With the introduction of such change, system safety and resilience is a critical concern, in particular, the ability of systems to gracefully degrade. In order to design graceful degradation into a TBO envrionment, knowledge of the potential causes of degradation, and appropriate solutions, is required. In addition, previous research has predominantly explored the technological contribution to graceful degradation, frequently neglecting to consider the role of the human operator, specifically, air traffic controllers (ATCOs). This is out of step with real-world operations, and potentially limits an ecologically valid understanding of achieving graceful degradation in an air traffic control (ATC) environment. The following literature review aims to identify and summarize the literature to date on the potential causes of degradation in ATC and the solutions that may be applied within a TBO context, with a specific focus on the contribution of the air traffic controller. A framework of graceful degradation, developed from the literature, is presented. It is argued that in order to achieve graceful degradation within TBO, a human-system integration approach must be applied.

trajectory based operations

Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests

Selective logging, fragmentation, and understory fires directly degrade forest structure and composition. However, studies addressing the effects of forest degradation on carbon, water, and energy cycles are scarce. Here, we integrate field observations and high‐resolution remote sensing from airborne lidar to provide realistic initial conditions to the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED‐2.2) and investigate how disturbances from forest degradation affect gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and sensible heat flux (H). We used forest structural information retrieved from airborne lidar samples (13,500 ha) and calibrated with 817 inventory plots (0.25 ha) across precipitation and degradation gradients in the eastern Amazon as initial conditions to ED‐2.2 model. Our results show that the magnitude and seasonality of fluxes were modulated by changes in forest structure caused by degradation. During the dry season and under typical conditions, severely degraded forests (biomass loss ≥66%) experienced water stress with declines in ET (up to 34%) and GPP (up to 35%) and increases of H (up to 43%) and daily mean ground temperatures (up to 6.5°C) relative to intact forests. In contrast, the relative impact of forest degradation on energy, water, and carbon cycles markedly diminishes under extreme, multiyear droughts, as a consequence of severe stress experienced by intact forests. Our results highlight that the water and energy cycles in the Amazon are driven by not only climate and deforestation but also the past disturbance and changes of forest structure from degradation, suggesting a much broader influence of human land use activities on the tropical ecosystems.

Marcos Longo

Insulation Resistance Degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

Insulation resistance (IR) degradation in NiBaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors has been characterized by the measurement of both time to failure (TTF) and direct current leakage current as a function of stress time under highly accelerated life test conditions. The measured leakage current time dependence data fit well to an exponential form, and a characteristic growth time tau (sub SD) can be determined. A greater value of tau (sub SD) represents a slower IR degradation process. Oxygen vacancy migration and localization at the grain boundary region results in the reduction of the Schottky barrier height and has been found to be the main reason for IR degradation in NiBaTiO3 capacitors. The reduction of barrier height as a function oftime follows an exponential relation of phi (t ) = phi (0) e (exp -2Kt), where 13 the degradation rate constant K Koe (Ek/kT) is inversely proportional to the mean TTF (MTTF) and can be determined using an Arrhenius plot. For oxygen vacancy electromigration, a lower barrier height phi (0) will favor a slow IR degradation process, but a lower phi (0) will also promote electronic carrier conduction across the barrier and decrease the IR. As a result, a moderate barrier height phi (0) (and therefore a moderate IR value) with a longer MTTF (smaller degradation rate constant K) will result in a minimized IR degradation process and the most improved reliability in NiBaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors.

reliability

Insulation Resistance Degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

Insulation resistance (IR) degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors has been characterized by the measurement of both time to failure and direct-current (DC) leakage current as a function of stress time under highly accelerated life test conditions. The measured leakage current-time dependence data fit well to an exponential form, and a characteristic growth time SD can be determined. A greater value of tau(sub SD) represents a slower IR degradation process. Oxygen vacancy migration and localization at the grain boundary region results in the reduction of the Schottky barrier height and has been found to be the main reason for IR degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 capacitors. The reduction of barrier height as a function of time follows an exponential relation of phi (𝑡)=phi (0)e(exp -2Κt), where the degradation rate constant 𝐾=𝐾o𝑒(𝐸𝑘/𝑘𝑇) is inversely proportional to the mean time to failure (MTTF) and can be determined using an Arrhenius plot. For oxygen vacancy electromigration, a lower barrier height phi(0) will favor a slow IR degradation process, but a lower phi(0) will also promote electronic carrier conduction across the barrier and decrease the insulation resistance. As a result, a moderate barrier height phi(0) (and therefore a moderate IR value) with a longer MTTF (smaller degradation rate constant 𝐾) will result in a minimized IR degradation process and the most improved reliability in Ni-BaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors.

dielectric degradation

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models–specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

resilience

Surface catalytic degradation study of two linear perfluoropolyalkylethers at 345 C

Thin-liquid-film degradation studies of two commercially available perfluoropolyalkylether fluids (PFAE) were performed at 345 C, in nitrogen and air atmospheres, on iron and 440 C stainless steel surfaces. It was found that one fluid degraded on both iron and 440 C stainless steel surfaces in an air atmosphere, whereas the other fluid did not degrade. Chemical analysis revealed that the test fluid degraded to lower molecular weight products and that the degradation was accompanied by the formation of a brownish deposit on both the iron and 440 C stainless steel surfaces. Surface analysis of the deposit revealed a susbstantial amount of iron oxide (Fe2O3). It was hypothesized that the fluid which degraded did so because of its acetal structure. The other fluid, lacking the acetal structure, did not degrade.

Morales, Wilfredo

Atrial natriuretic peptide degradation by CPA47 cells - Evidence for a divalent cation-independent cell-surface proteolytic activity

Atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) is rapidly cleared and degraded in vivo. Nonguanylate-cyclase receptors (C-ANPR) and a metalloproteinase, neutral endopeptidase (EC 3.4.24.11) (NEP 24.11), are thought to be responsible for its metabolism. We investigated the mechanisms of ANP degradation by an endothelial-derived cell line, CPA47. CPA47 cells degraded 88 percent of 125I-ANP after 1 h at 37 degrees C as determined by HPLC. Medium preconditioned by these cells degraded 41 percent of the 125I-ANP, and this activity was inhibited by a divalent cation chelator, EDTA. Furthermore, a cell-surface proteolytic activity degraded 125I-ANP in the presence of EDTA when receptor-mediated endocytosis was inhibited either by low temperature (4 degrees C) or by hyperosmolarity at 37 degrees C. The metalloproteinase, NEP 24.11, is unlikely to be the cell-surface peptidase because 125I-ANP is degraded by CPA47 cells at 4 degrees C in the presence of 5 mM EDTA. These data indicate that CPA47 cells can degrade ANP by a novel divalent cation-independent cell-surface proteolytic activity.

Frost, S. J.

On-Orbit Performance Degradation of the International Space Station P6 Photovoltaic Arrays

This paper discusses the on-orbit performance and performance degradation of the International Space Station P6 solar array wings (SAWs) from the period of December 2000 through February 2003. Data selection considerations and data reduction methods are reviewed along with the approach for calculating array performance degradation based on measured string shunt current levels. Measured degradation rates are compared with those predicted by the computational tool SPACE and prior degradation rates measured with the same SAW technology on the Mir space station. Initial results show that the measured SAW short-circuit current is degrading 0.2 to 0.5 percent per year. This degradation rate is below the predicted rate of 0.8 percent per year and is well within the 3 percent estimated uncertainty in measured SAW current levels. General contributors to SAW degradation are briefly discussed.

Kerslake, Thomas W.

Characterization of MODIS Solar Diffuser On-orbit Degradation

MODIS reflective solar bands (RSB) are calibrated on-orbit by a solar diffuser (SD) and a solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM). The SD bi-directional reflectance factor (BRF) was characterized pre-launch by the instrument vendor using reference samples traceable to NIST reflectance standards. Its on-orbit degradation is regularly monitored by the SDSM. It consists of a solar integration sphere (SIS) with 9 filtered detectors with wavelengths ranging from 0.41 to 0.94 micrometer, a rotating mirror assembly, and an electronics module. During each SD/SDSM calibration, the SDSM views the sunlight directly and the sunlight diffusely reflected from the SD panel. The time series of SDSM measurements (ratio of the SD view response to the Sun view response) is used to compute the SD BRF degradation at each SDSM detector wavelength. Since launch Terra MODIS has operated for more than seven years and Aqua for nearly five years. The SD panel on each MODIS instrument has experienced noticeable degradation with the largest changes observed in the VIS spectral region. Following a brief description of the MODIS RSB calibration methodology and SD/SDSM operational activities, this paper illustrates the SD on-orbit degradation results for both Terra and Aqua MODIS. It discusses the impacts on the SD RF degradation due to sensor operational conditions and SD solar exposure time. For Aqua MODIS, operated under the same conditions, the SD annual degradation rate is approximately 2.9% at 0.41 micrometers, 1.6% at 0.47 micrometers, and less than 1.1% at wavelengths above 0.53 micrometers. For Terra MODIS, however, an SD door (SDD) related anomaly in May 2003 had led to a decision to keep the SDD permanently at its open position. Since then its SD has experienced a much faster SD degradation rate.

Xiong, X.

Aboveground Biomass Variability Across Intact and Degraded Forests in the Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation rates have declined in the Brazilian Amazon since 2005, yet degradation from logging, re, and fragmentation has continued in frontier forests. In this study we quantified the aboveground carbon density (ACD) in intact and degraded forests using the largest data set of integrated forest inventory plots (n 359) and airborne lidar data (18,000 ha) assembled to date for the Brazilian Amazon. We developed statistical models relating inventory ACD estimates to lidar metrics that explained70 of the variance across forest types. Airborne lidar-ACD estimates for intact forests ranged between 5.0 +/- 2.5 and 31.9 +/- 10.8 kg C m(exp -2). Degradation carbon losses were large and persistent. Sites that burned multiple times within a decade lost up to 15.0 +/- 0.7 kg C m(-2)(94%) of ACD. Forests that burned nearly15 years ago had between 4.1 +/- 0.5 and 6.8 +/- 0.3 kg C m(exp -2) (22-40%) less ACD than intact forests. Even for low-impact logging disturbances, ACD was between 0.7 +/- 0.3 and 4.4 +/- 0.4 kg C m(exp -2)(4-21%) lower than unlogged forests. Comparing biomass estimates from airborne lidar to existing biomass maps, we found that regional and pan-tropical products consistently overestimated ACD in degraded forests, under-estimated ACD in intact forests, and showed little sensitivity to res and logging. Fine-scale heterogeneity in ACD across intact and degraded forests highlights the benefits of airborne lidar for carbon mapping. Differences between airborne lidar and regional biomass maps underscore the need to improve and update biomass estimates for dynamic land use frontiers, to better characterize deforestation and degradation carbon emissions for regional carbon budgets and Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation(REDD+).

Longo, Marcos

Reductions in Productivity Due to Land Degradation in the Drylands of the Southwestern United States

Dryland degradation has long been recognized at regional, national, and global scales, yet there are no objective assessments of its location and severity. An assessment of reductions in net primary production (NPP) due to dryland degradation in the southwestern United States is reported. The local NPP scaling (LNS) approach was applied to map the extent and magnitude of degradation. LNS seeks to identify reference sites in which there is no degradation that can be used as a standard for comparison with other sites that share the same environment, except for degradation. Twelve years were analyzed (2000–2011), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data (250 m) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite‐borne multispectral sensor. The results indicated that the total NPP reductions in the study area were about 35.9 ± 4.7 Tg C/yr, which equates to 0.31 ± 0.04 Mg C/ha·y. The NPP reductions in grassland‐savanna and livestock grazing areas were large and mostly consistent between years in spite of large variations in overall NPP caused by differences in land‐use, interannual variations in rainfall, and other aspects of weather. In comparison with other cover types, forested land generally had higher NPP reduction per unit area. The maps also enable attribution of degradation from the finest management units to entire agencies, such as the Bureau of Land Management, which had 50% less production per unit area than the U.S. Forest Service. The degradation within Native American land was low with total NPP reduction of about 2.41 ± 0.24 Tg C/yr and unit area reduction of productivity of just 0.21 ± 0.02 Mg C/ha·yr, yet the percent reduction from potential was in equivalence with other land management agencies.

Noojipady, Praveen

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models--specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

Daniel Hulse

Crater degradation on Mercury and the moon - Clues to surface evolution

A preliminary investigation was conducted regarding the variations in the morphological characteristics of Mercurian craters that appear to be associated with a degradation of fresh craters. Craters are classified according to relative states of degradation in order to provide evidence on degradation styles and rates on Mercury, and to correlate degradation with major geologic events in the history of the planet. Processes and relative rates of degradation on Mercury and the moon are also compared. Degradation trends of crater morphology are found to be parallel on Mercury and the moon. The severe destruction of interior structures in lunar craters may have resulted from more widespread distribution of ejecta due to the moon's lower gravity. The possibility is considered that the smooth plains on the surface of Mercury were formed early in the history of that planet.

Wood, C. A.

Thermal oxidative degradation reactions of linear perfluoroalky lethers

Thermal and thermal oxidative stability studies were performed on linear perfluoro alkyl ether fluids. The effect on degradation by metal catalysts and degradation inhibitors are reported. The liner perfluoro alkylethers are inherently unstable at 316 C in an oxidizing atmosphere. The metal catalysts greatly increased the rate of degradation in oxidizing atmospheres. In the presence of these metals in an oxidizing atmosphere, the degradation inhibitors were highly effective in arresting degradation at 288 C. However, the inhibitors had only limited effectiveness at 316 C. The metals promote degradation by chain scission. Based on elemental analysis and oxygen consumption data, the linear perfluoro alkylether fluids have a structural arrangement based on difluoroformyl and tetrafluoroethylene oxide units, with the former predominating.

Jones, W. R., Jr.

Thermal oxidative degradation reactions of linear perfluoroalkyl ethers

Thermal and thermal oxidative stability studies were performed on linear perfluoroalkyl ether fluids. The effect on degradation by metal catalysts and degradation inhibitors is reported. The linear perfluoroalkyl ethers are inherently unstable at 316 C in an oxidizing atmosphere. The metal catalysts greatly increased the rate of degradation in oxidizing atmospheres. In the presence of these metals in an oxidizing atmosphere, the degradation inhibitors were highly effective in arresting degradation at 288 C. However, the inhibitors had only limited effectiveness at 316 C. The metals promote degradation by chain scission. Based on elemental analysis and oxygen consumption data, the linear perfluoroalkyl ether fluids have a structural arrangement based on difluoroformyl and tetrafluoroethylene oxide units, with the former predominating. Previously announced in STAR as N82-26468

Jones, W. R., Jr.

Heat and Mass Transport from Thermally Degrading Thin Cellulosic Materials in a Microgravity Environment

Attention is given to a theoretical model describing the behavior of a thermally thin cellulosic sheet heated by external thermal radiation in a quiescent microgravity environment. This model describes thermal and oxidative degradation of the sheet and the heat and mass transfer of evolved degradation products from the heated cellulosic surface into the gas phase. Two calculations are carried out: heating without thermal degradation, and heating with thermal degradation of the sheet with endothermic pyrolysis, exothermic thermal oxidative degradation, and highly exothermic char oxidation. It is shown that pyrolysis is the main degradation reaction. Self-sustained smoldering is controlled and severely limited by the reduced oxygen supply.

Kushida, G.