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DOE OSTI2023

Combining field and remote sensing data to estimate forest canopy damage and recovery following tropical cyclones across tropical regions

Abstract As tropical forests cycle the most water and carbon, it is crucial to understand the short- and long-term effects of intensifying cyclones on these ecosystems. Soil nutrient status has been shown to moderate forest cyclone responses using field litterfall measurements, but litterfall is one of the multiple cyclone impact metrtics, which may or may not be correlated with one another or with site nutrients. We used remotely sensed vegetation indices to quantify immediate damage and two-year recovery for 42 cases across nine tropical forests in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Australia, and Taiwan affected by 12 cyclones between 2004 and 2017. We tested whether changes in leaf area index (LAI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) correlated with changes in litterfall observations and how changes varied with total soil phosphorus (P) concentrations across regions. We compared cyclone-induced changes and recovery of LAI and EVI to litterfall observations compiled in a pantropical meta-analysis. We found large variation in changes in LAI and EVI across forests, with the greatest reductions in LAI (−77%) and EVI (−77%) in Mexico (Jalisco) and Puerto Rico, respectively. LAI ( r = −0.52) and EVI ( r = −0.60) changes correlated with those in litterfall across cases. Post-cyclone data showed recovery of LAI by four months, EVI by two months, and litterfall by ten months. We detected larger changes in LAI and EVI in forests with higher soil P, but these relationships were not significant when accounting for cyclone and site as random effects. Principal component analyses indicated a regional clustering of cases related to their contrasting cyclone regimes, with the frequency and intensity of cyclone events negatively correlated. Overall, remote sensing observations complement but do not substitute for ground observations that reveal cyclone damage and post-cyclone recovery in tropical forests, and soil phosphorus moderates some but not all metrics of stability in response to cyclones.

Bloom, Dellena E. (ORCID:0000000205981747)↗

NASA NTRS2021

On the Relationship Between CYGNSS Surface Heat Fluxes and the Life Cycle of Low-Latitude Ocean Extratropical Cyclones

Surface latent and sensible heat fluxes are important for extratropical cyclone evolution and intensification. Because extratropical cyclone genesis often occurs at low-latitude, CYGNSS surface latent and sensible heat flux retrievals are composited to provide a mean picture of their spatial distribution in low-latitude oceanic extratropical cyclones. CYGNSSn heat fluxes are not affected by heavy precipitation and offer observations of storms with frequent revisit times. Consistent with prior results obtained for cyclones in the Gulf Stream region, the fluxes are strongest in the wake of the cold fronts, and weakest to negative in the warm sector in advance of the cold fronts. As cyclone strength increases, or mean precipitable water decreases, the maximum in surface heat fluxes increases while the minimum decreases. This impacts the changes in fluxes during cyclone intensification: the post-cold frontal surface heat flux maximum increases due to the increase in near surface winds. During cyclone dissipation, the fluxes in this sector decrease, due to the decrease in winds and in temperature and humidity contrast. The warm sector minimum decreases throughout the entire cyclone lifetime and is mostly driven by sea-air temperature and humidity contrast changes. However, during cyclone dissipation, the surface heat fluxes increase along the cold front in a narrow band to the east, independently from changes in the cyclone characteristics. This suggests that, during cyclone dissipation, energy transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere are linked to frontal in addition to synoptic-scale processes.

CYGNSS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very different from our current assessments, which were mainly based on the thermodynamic theory of tropical cyclone intensity.

Wu, Liguang↗

NASA NTRS2008

Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

Characteristics of the raindrop size distribution in seven tropical cyclones have been studied through impact-type disdrometer measurements at three different sites during the 2004-06 Atlantic hurricane seasons. One of the cyclones has been observed at two different sites. High concentrations of small and/or midsize drops were observed in the presence or absence of large drops. Even in the presence of large drops, the maximum drop diameter rarely exceeded 4 mm. These characteristics of raindrop size distribution were observed in all stages of tropical cyclones, unless the storm was in the extratropical stage where the tropical cyclone and a midlatitude frontal system had merged. The presence of relatively high concentrations of large drops in extratropical cyclones resembled the size distribution in continental thunderstorms. The integral rain parameters of drop concentration, liquid water content, and rain rate at fixed reflectivity were therefore lower in extratropical cyclones than in tropical cyclones. In tropical cyclones, at a disdrometercalculated reflectivity of 40 dBZ, the number concentration was 700 plus or minus 100 drops m(sup -3), while the liquid water content and rain rate were 0.90 plus or minus 0.05 g m(sup -3) and 18.5 plus or minus 0.5 mm h(sup -1), respectively. The mean mass diameter, on the other hand, was 1.67 plus or minus 0.3 mm. The comparison of raindrop size distributions between Atlantic tropical cyclones and storms that occurred in the central tropical Pacific island of Roi-Namur revealed that the number density is slightly shifted toward smaller drops, resulting in higher-integral rain parameters and lower mean mass and maximum drop diameters at the latter site. Considering parameterization of the raindrop size distribution in tropical cyclones, characteristics of the normalized gamma distribution parameters were examined with respect to reflectivity. The mean mass diameter increased rapidly with reflectivity, while the normalized intercept parameter had an increasing trend with reflectivity. The shape parameter, on the other hand, decreased in a reflectivity range from 10 to 20 dBZ and remained steady at higher reflectivities. Considering the repeatability of the characteristics of the raindrop size distribution, a second impact disdrometer that was located 5.3 km away from the primary site in Wallops Island, Virginia, had similar size spectra in selected tropical cyclones.

Tokay, Ali↗

NASA NTRS2015

Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle as Observed by TRMM

Using infrared satellite data, previous work has shown a consistent diurnal cycle in the pattern of cold cloud tops around mature tropical cyclones. In particular, an increase in the coverage by cold cloud tops often occurs in the inner core of the storm around the time of sunset and subsequently propagates outward to several hundred kilometers over the course of the following day. This consistent cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones and the forecasting of such changes. Because infrared satellite measurements are primarily sensitive to cloud top, the goal of this study is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to examine and better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a larger depth of the storm's clouds. The National Hurricane Center's best track dataset was used to extract all PR and TMI pixels within 1000 km of each tropical cyclone that occurred in the Atlantic basin between 1998-2011. Then the data was composited according to radius (100-km bins from 0-1000 km) and local standard time (LST; 3-hr bins). Specifically, PR composites involved finding the percentage of pixels with reflectivity greater than or equal to 20 dBZ at various heights (i.e., 2-14 km in increments of 2 km) as a function of radius and time. The 37- and 85- GHz TMI channels are especially sensitive to scattering by precipitation-sized ice in the mid to upper portions of clouds. Hence, the percentage of 37- and 85-GHz polarization corrected temperatures less than various thresholds were calculated using data from all storms as a function of radius and time. For 37 GHz, thresholds of 260 K, 265 K, 270 K, and 275 K were used, and for 85 GHz, thresholds of 200-270 K in increments of 10 K were utilized. Note that convection forced by the interactions of a tropical cyclone with land (e.g., due to frictional convergence) may disrupt the natural convective cycle of a cyclone. Hence, only data pertaining to storms whose centers were greater than 300 km from land were included in the composites. Early results suggest the presence of a diurnal cycle in the PR composites of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from a height of 2-12 km from approximately 0-400 km radius, but the cycle is most apparent above 6 km. At a height of 8 km, there is a peak (minimum) in the percentage of PR pixels greater than or equal to 20 dBZ near 0 (21) LST in the inner core with some indication that this signal propagates outward with time. In contrast, the 37- and 85-GHz composites show little indication of a diurnal cycle at any radii, regardless of the threshold used. Ongoing work with this project will involve sub-setting the composites according to storm intensity to see if the diurnal cycle varies with storm strength. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear often leads to asymmetries in tropical cyclone convection and may disrupt the cyclone's natural diurnal cycle. Therefore, wind shear thresholds will be applied to the composites to determine if the diurnal cycle becomes more apparent in a low shear environment. Finally, other work to be completed will involve developing composites for other tropical cyclone basins, including the East Pacific, Northwest Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean.

tropical cyclones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Depending on the activities in progress at the time of the threat, securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the time it takes for them to reach the rig location. The objective of this study is to use the available 50 years of past cyclone history to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity would be exposed to an upcoming cyclone whose forecasted track cone and storm size lies within that location. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Version 4. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. Also, the tool allows the user to input a T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Risk↗

DOE OSTI2021

Linking resource availability to pantropical forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance

Statement of purpose: Tropical cyclones are intensifying and occurring at higher latitudes in recent decades, but the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (pace of return to pre-disturbance reference values) of tropical forests to cyclones remains largely unexplored at the pantropical scale. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the role of soil resource availability (i.e., total soil phosphorus concentration) in mediating site-level forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclones pan-tropically. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m2/day), phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m2/day), as well as concentrations (mg/g) across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan. The dataset zip file includes three data and two metadata files: - The compiled Litterfall Mass Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Mass.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - The compiled Litterfall Nitrogen and Phosphorus Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Nutrients.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - Tropical cyclone track data compiled from HURDAT2 and IBTrACS databases and used as input in the HURRECON model (https://github.com/hurrecon-model/HurreconR) to generate wind data is provided in hurdat2-1851-2019-052520.txt. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Mass.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Mass.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Nutrients.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Nutrients.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

LAI, EVI, NDVI, and kNDVI in 23 pantropical forests affected by 21 cyclones

Statement of purpose: Cyclones alter the function and composition of tropical forests, making effects of intensifying cyclones on carbon-rich forests a critical topic of study. Here, we quantified cyclone-induced damage and recovery of 21 cyclone disturbances affecting 23 pantropical forest sites between 1988-2017 utilizing leaf area index (LAI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and transformed NDVI (kNDVI) values from Google Earth Engine. Field observations collected in a meta-analysis (Bomfim et al., 2022, in review) were used to ground-truth and test effects of soil resource availability and disturbance factors on damage and recovery. This meta-analysis also served as the basis to begin vegetation index extraction, utilizing unique site and date combinations, from tropical forests effect by cyclone disturbances. We began collecting NDVI (5km resolution) from the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Version 5 data product (Vermote, 2019) for all case studies included, 42. Next, we began extracting Landsat data from Landsat 4, 5, and 8, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey, in search of higher resolution data. We selected a 3 by 3 Landsat pixel area, leading to a 90m resolution data extraction. The specific imagery used includes Landsat 4 USGS Landsat 4 TM Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA (top of atmosphere) Reflectance, Landsat 5 USGS Landsat 5 TM (thematic mapper) Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance, and Landsat 8 USGS Landsat 8 Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance. Within Google Earth Engine, we selected the date and location (latitude and longitude), calculated NDVI, kNDVI, and EVI utilizing Landsat bands (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones), and extracted post- and pre-cyclone values for each case study to calculate cyclone-induced change in the vegetative index. Due to limited spatial resolution of Landsat remote sensing data, MODIS products were investigated next. First, the MOD13Q1.006 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day Global 250m product was used to extract 250m EVI and NDVI (Didan, 2015) and then the MCD15A3H.006 MODIS Leaf Area Index/FPAR 4-Day Global 500m product product was used to extract LAI 500m (Myneni et al., 2015). Pre- and post-cyclone values, change in the vegetative index, and standard deviation for all values are included in the main csv (see case_study_data.csv) for all vegetative indices collected, including LAI 500m, EVI 250m, NDVI 250m, NDVI 90m, kNDVI 90m, EVI 90m, and NDVI 5km. Lastly, recovery values were calculated utilizing a standardization method (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones) and recovery values for MODIS (see MODIS_recovery.csv) and Landsat (Landsat_recovery.csv) data are included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons, it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the estimated time it will take the storm to reach the rig location from the time it is first detected. The objective of this study is to use 50 years of cyclone history from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) database, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity lies within the forecasted track cone and storm size of the upcoming cyclone. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. In addition, the tool allows the user to input any T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Offshore Oil Drilling↗

NASA NTRS2013

Multiple Satellite Observations of Cloud Cover in Extratropical Cyclones

Using cloud observations from NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, and CloudSat-CALIPSO, composites of cloud fraction in southern and northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones are obtained for cold and warm seasons between 2006 and 2010, to assess differences between these three data sets, and between summer and winter cyclones. In both hemispheres and seasons, over the open ocean, the cyclone-centered cloud fraction composites agree within 5% across the three data sets, but behind the cold fronts, or over sea ice and land, the differences are much larger. To supplement the data set comparison and learn more about the cyclones, we also examine the differences in cloud fraction between cold and warm season for each data set. The difference in cloud fraction between cold and warm season southern hemisphere cyclones is small for all three data sets, but of the same order of magnitude as the differences between the data sets. The cold-warm season contrast in northern hemisphere cyclone cloud fractions is similar for all three data sets: in the warm sector, the cold season cloud fractions are lower close to the low, but larger on the equator edge than their warm season counterparts. This seasonal contrast in cloud fraction within the cyclones warm sector seems to be related to the seasonal differences in moisture flux within the cyclones. Our analysis suggests that the three different data sets can all be used confidently when studying the warm sector and warm frontal zone of extratropical cyclones but caution should be exerted when studying clouds in the cold sector.

imaging spectrometers↗

DOE OSTI2023

Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades

Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze multiple reanalysis datasets covering a multidecadal period with improvements to the cyclone tracking algorithm and the integrated cyclone activity metric. The results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity over the last seven decades. There has been a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones. Spatial analysis shows increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified the tropospheric waves and vortex with distinct dynamics between winter and summer. Recently enhanced baroclinicity over large areas of the Arctic and midlatitudes suggests more complicated atmospheric dynamics than what is hypothesized with Arctic-amplification-induced decrease in meridional temperature gradients.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS1992

Nimbus-7 total ozone observations of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone around western North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1979 to 1982. The strong correlation between total ozone distribution and tropopause height found in the subtropical and midlatitudes made it possible for TOMS to monitor the propagation of upper-tropospheric waves and the mutual adjustment between these waves and tropical cyclones during their interaction. Changes in these total ozone patterns reflect the 3D upper-tropospheric transport processes that are involved in tropical cyclone intensity and intensity and motion changes. The total ozone distributions indicate that: (1) the mean upper-tropospheric circulations associated with western North Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones are similar; (2) more intense tropical cyclones have higher tropopauses around their centers; (3) more intense tropical cyclones have higher tropopauses on the anticyclonic-shear side of their outflow jets, which indicate that the more intense tropical cyclones have stronger outflow channels than less intense systems; (4) tropical cyclones that intensify (do not intensify) are within 10 deg (15 deg) latitude of weak (strong) upper-tropospheric troughs that are moderately rich (very rich) in total ozone; and (5) tropical cyclones turn to the left (right) when they move within approximately 15 deg latitude downstream of an ozone-poor (ozone-rich) upper-tropospheric ridge (trough).

Stout, John↗

NASA NTRS1994

A satellite observational and numerical study of precipitation characteristics in western North Atlantic tropical cyclones

Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) observations were used to examine the spatial and temporal changes of the precipitation characteristics of tropical cyclones. SSM/I observations were also combined with the results of a tropical cyclone numerical model to examine the role of inner-core diabatic heating in subsequent intensity changes of tropical cyclones. Included in the SSM/I observations were rainfall characteristics of 18 named western North Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1987 and 1989. The SSM/I rain-rate algorithm that employed the 85-GHz channel provided an analysis of the rain-rate distribution in greater detail. However, the SSM/I algorithm underestimated the rain rates when compared to in situ techniques but appeared to be comparable to the rain rates obtained from other satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. The analysis of SSM/I observations found that more intense systems had higher rain rates, more latent heat release, and a greater contribution from heavier rain to the total tropical cyclone rainfall. In addition, regions with the heaviest rain rates were found near the center of the most intense tropical cyclones. Observational analysis from SSM/I also revealed that the greatest rain rates in the inner-core regions were found in the right half of fast-moving cyclones, while the heaviest rain rates in slow-moving tropical cyclones were found in the forward half. The combination of SSM/I observations and an interpretation of numerical model simulations revealed that the correlation between changes in the inner core diabetic heating and the subsequent intensity became greater as the tropical cyclones became more intense.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Rodgers, Edward↗

NASA NTRS2018

Aerosol Midlatitude Cyclone Indirect Effects in Observations and High-Resolution Simulations

Aerosol-cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol-cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP). When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6-8.3 Wm(exp -2) in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60% of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

Mccoy, Daniel T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of Modeled Precipitation in Oceanic Extratropical Cyclones Using IMERG

Using the high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation dataset Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), extratropical cyclone precipitation is evaluated in two reanalyses and two climate models. Based on cyclone-centered composites, all four models overestimate precipitation in the western subsiding and dry side of the cyclones, and underestimate the precipitation in the eastern ascending and moist side. By decomposing the composites into frequency of occurrence and intensity (mean precipitation rate when precipitating), the analysis reveals a tendency for all four models to overestimate frequency and underestimate intensity, with the former issue dominating in the western half and the latter in the eastern half of the cyclones. Differences in frequency are strongly dependent on cyclone environmental moisture, while the differences in intensity are strongly impacted by the strength of ascent within the cyclone. There are some uncertainties associated with the observations: IMERG might under-report frozen precipitation and possibly exaggerate rates in vigorously ascending regions. Nevertheless, the analysis suggests that all models produce extratropical cyclone precipitation too often and too lightly. These biases have consequences when evaluating the changes in precipitation characteristics with changes in cyclone properties: the models disagree on the magnitude of the change in precipitation intensity with a change in environmental moisture and in precipitation frequency with a change in cyclone strength. This complicates accurate predictions of precipitation changes in a changing climate.

Catherine M Naud↗

NASA NTRS2013

Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

cyclones↗