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Estimating the Deep Space Network modification costs to prepare for future space missions by using major cost drivers

This paper develops a cost model to do long range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSN) support of future space missions. The paper focuses on the costs required to modify and/or enhance the DSN to prepare for future space missions. The model is a function of eight major mission cost drivers and estimates both the total cost and the annual costs of a similar future space mission. The model is derived from actual cost data from three space missions: Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. Estimates derived from the model are tested against actual cost data for two independent missions, Viking and Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS).

Remer, Donald S.

Solid Sorbent Cost Sensitivity Analysis: A Framework for UNF Reprocessing Sorbent Cost Comparison

Solid sorbents have been the subject of research and development across the U.S. Department of Energy national laboratory complex for many years. They are generally accepted as a safer alternative to cryogenic distillation for noble gas capture, and they present an easier pathway in development of long-term waste forms after iodine capture. As more types of sorbents have been proposed for capture of volatile radionuclides, it has become necessary to compare them based on performance and cost criteria. This report details cost and performance information for three promising sorbents and provides a cost sensitivity analysis. The goal of this analysis is to establish a framework which can be utilized to directly compare future sorbents, with differing properties, to the sorbents discussed in this report. Direct comparison is instrumental to making informed decisions to efficiently guide research and minimize laborious detours. In all cases, sorbent capacity is a major cost driver as it influences the mass of sorbent, operational footprint, and disposal cost requirements., However, sorbent price can greatly increase the cost of a capture technology. For sorbents used in krypton capture, the purity of krypton released to storage is the highest cost driver.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Cost Modeling for low-cost planetary missions

This presentation will provide an overview of the JPL parametric cost models used to estimate flight science spacecrafts and instruments. This material will emphasize the cost model approaches to estimate low-cost flight hardware, sensors, and instrumentation, and to perform cost-risk assessments. This presentation will also discuss JPL approaches to perform cost modeling and the methodologies and analyses used to capture low-cost vs. key cost drivers.

cost model

A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs

The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

Remer, D. S.

On Convergence of Development Costs and Cost Models for Complex Spaceflight Instrument Electronics

Development costs of a few recent spaceflight instrument electrical and electronics subsystems have diverged from respective heritage cost model predictions. The cost models used are Grass Roots, Price-H and Parametric Model. These cost models originated in the military and industry around 1970 and were successfully adopted and patched by NASA on a mission-by-mission basis for years. However, the complexity of new instruments recently changed rapidly by orders of magnitude. This is most obvious in the complexity of representative spaceflight instrument electronics' data system. It is now required to perform intermediate processing of digitized data apart from conventional processing of science phenomenon signals from multiple detectors. This involves on-board instrument formatting of computational operands from row data for example, images), multi-million operations per second on large volumes of data in reconfigurable hardware (in addition to processing on a general purpose imbedded or standalone instrument flight computer), as well as making decisions for on-board system adaptation and resource reconfiguration. The instrument data system is now tasked to perform more functions, such as forming packets and instrument-level data compression of more than one data stream, which are traditionally performed by the spacecraft command and data handling system. It is furthermore required that the electronics box for new complex instruments is developed for one-digit watt power consumption, small size and that it is light-weight, and delivers super-computing capabilities. The conflict between the actual development cost of newer complex instruments and its electronics components' heritage cost model predictions seems to be irreconcilable. This conflict and an approach to its resolution are addressed in this paper by determining the complexity parameters, complexity index, and their use in enhanced cost model.

Kizhner, Semion

Low Cost Rapid Response Spacecraft, (LCRRS): A Research Project in Low Cost Spacecraft Design and Fabrication in a Rapid Prototyping Environment

The Low Cost Rapid Response Spacecraft (LCRRS) is an ongoing research development project at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, California. The prototype spacecraft, called Cost Optimized Test for Spacecraft Avionics and Technologies (COTSAT) is the first of what could potentially be a series of rapidly produced low-cost satellites. COTSAT has a target launch date of March 2009 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle. The LCRRS research system design incorporates use of COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf), MOTS (Modified Off The Shelf), and GOTS (Government Off The Shelf) hardware for a remote sensing satellite. The design concept was baselined to support a 0.5 meter Ritchey-Chretien telescope payload. This telescope and camera system is expected to achieve 1.5 meter/pixel resolution. The COTSAT team is investigating the possibility of building a fully functional spacecraft for $500,000 parts and $2,000,000 labor. Cost is dramatically reduced by using a sealed container, housing the bus and payload subsystems. Some electrical and RF designs were improved/upgraded from GeneSat-1 heritage systems. The project began in January 2007 and has yielded two functional test platforms. It is expected that a flight-qualified unit will be finished in December 2008. Flight quality controls are in place on the parts and materials used in this development with the aim of using them to finish a proto-flight satellite. For LEO missions the team is targeting a mission class requiring a minimum of six months lifetime or more. The system architecture incorporates several design features required by high reliability missions. This allows for a true skunk works environment to rapidly progress toward a flight design. Engineering and fabrication is primarily done in-house at NASA Ames with flight certifications on materials. The team currently employs seven Full Time Equivalent employees. The success of COTSATs small team in this effort can be attributed to highly cross trained engineering team. The engineers on the team are capable of functioning in two to three engineering disciplines which allows highly efficient interdisciplinary engineering collaboration. NASA Ames is actively proposing mission concepts to use the COTSAT platform to accomplish science. If the COTSAT team validates this approach, it will allow the possibility for remote sensing missions to produce a high science yield for minimal cost and reduced schedule. Another aim of this approach is to yield an accelerated pathway from a Phase A study to mission launch. Leaders in the aerospace industry have shown interest in this methodology. Several visits and tours have been given in the lab. Although the concept of low-cost development is initially met with skepticism from some within the prohibitive aerospace industry, the project's efforts have been highly praised for the accomplishments met within a limited time and budget. Overall the development has progressed tremendously well and the team is answering critical questions for current and future low-cost small satellite developments. COTSAT subsystems are not limited to a specific weight class and could be adapted to produce smaller platforms and to fit various launch vehicles.

Spremo, Stevan

From Low-Cost Sensors to High-Quality Data: A Review of Challenges and Summary of Best Practices for Effectively Using Low-Cost Particulate Matter Mass Sensors

Low-cost sensors for particulate matter mass (PM) enable spatially dense, high temporal resolution measurements of air quality that traditional reference monitoring cannot. Low-cost PM sensors are especially beneficial in low and middle-income countries where few, if any, reference grade measurements exist and in areas where the concentration fields of air pollutants have significant spatial gradients. Unfortunately, low-cost PM sensors also come with a number of challenges that must be addressed if their data products are to be used for anything more than a qualitative characterization of air quality. The various PM sensors used in low-cost monitors are all subject to biases and calibration dependencies, corrections for which range from relatively straightforward(e.g. meteorology, age of sensor) to complex (e.g. aerosol source, composition, refractive index). The methods for correcting and calibrating these biases and dependencies that have been used in the literature likewise range from simple linear and quadratic models to complex machine learning algorithms. Here we review the needs and challenges when trying to get high-quality data from low-cost sensors. We also present a set of best practices to follow to obtain high-quality data from these low-cost sensors.

low-cost sensors

Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

Comstock, Douglas A.

Cost Model Comparison: A Study of Internally and Commercially Developed Cost Models in Use by NASA

NASA makes use of numerous cost models to accurately estimate the cost of various components of a mission - hardware, software, mission/ground operations - during the different stages of a mission's lifecycle. The purpose of this project was to survey these models and determine in which respects they are similar and in which they are different. The initial survey included a study of the cost drivers for each model, the form of each model (linear/exponential/other CER, range/point output, capable of risk/sensitivity analysis), and for what types of missions and for what phases of a mission lifecycle each model is capable of estimating cost. The models taken into consideration consisted of both those that were developed by NASA and those that were commercially developed: GSECT, NAFCOM, SCAT, QuickCost, PRICE, and SEER. Once the initial survey was completed, the next step in the project was to compare the cost models' capabilities in terms of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements. This final comparison was then portrayed in a visual manner with Venn diagrams. All of the materials produced in the process of this study were then posted on the Ground Segment Team (GST) Wiki.

cost models

Estimating the Cost to do a Cost Estimate

This article provides a model for estimating the cost required to do a cost estimate. Overruns may lead to concellation of a project. In 1991, we completed a study on the cost of doing cost estimates for the class of projects normally encountered in the development and implementation of equipment at the network of tracking stations operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for NASA.

estimation cost estimate

Cost containment and KSC Shuttle facilities or cost containment and aerospace construction

This presentation has the objective to show examples of Cost Containment of Aerospace Construction at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), taking into account four major levels of Project Development of the Space Shuttle Facilities. The levels are related to conceptual criteria and site selection, the design of construction and ground support equipment, the construction of facilities and ground support equipment (GSE), and operation and maintenance. Examples of cost containment are discussed. The continued reduction of processing time from landing to launching represents a demonstration of the success of the cost containment methods. Attention is given to the factors which led to the selection of KSC, the use of Cost Engineering, the employment of the Construction Management Concept, and the use of Computer Aided Design/Drafting.

Brown, J. A.

Estimating the cost of major ongoing cost plus hardware development programs

Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

Bush, J. C.

Estimating the Cost of NASA's Space Launch Initiative: How SLI Cost Stack Up Against the Shuttle

NASA is planning to replace the Space Shuttle with a new completely reusable Second Generation Launch System by approximately 2012. Numerous contracted and NASA in-house Space Transportation Architecture Studies and various technology maturation activities are proceeding and have resulted in scores of competing architecture configurations being proposed. Life cycle cost is a key discriminator between all these various concepts. However, the one obvious analogy for costing purposes remains the current Shuttle system. Are there credible reasons to believe that a second generation reusable launch system can be accomplished at less cost than the Shuttle? The need for a credible answer to this question is critical. This paper reviews the cost estimating approaches being used by the contractors and the government estimators to address this issue and explores the rationale behind the numbers.

Hamaker, Joseph H.

Breaking the Cost Curve: Applying Lessons Learned from the James Webb Space Telescope Development to Build More Cost-Effective Large Space Telescopes in the Future

This paper looks at the key programmatic and technical drivers of the James Webb Space Telescope and assesses ways to building more cost-effective telescopes in the future. The paper evaluates the top level programmatics for JWST along with the key technical drivers from design through integration and testing. Actual data and metrics from JWST are studied to identify what ultimately drove cost on JWST. Finally, the paper assesses areas where applying lessons learned can reduce costs on future observatories and will provide better insights into critical areas to optimize for cost.

ATLAST

The NASA Analogy Software Cost Model: A Web-Based Cost Analysis Tool

This paper provides an overview of the many new features and algorithm updates in the release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA Flight Software analysis. ASCoT employs advanced statistical methods such as Cluster Analysis to provide an analogy based estimate of software delivered lines of code and development effort, a regression based Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) model that estimates cost (dollars), and a COCOMO II based estimate. The ASCoT algorithms are designed to primarily work with system level inputs such as mission type (earth orbiter vs. planetary vs. rover), the number of instruments, and total mission cost. This allows the user to supply a minimal number of mission-level parameters which are better understood early in the life-cycle, rather than a large number of complex inputs.

Hihn, Jairus

Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

data mining

Using Historical Cost and Schedule Data to Predict Cost Risk for Future NASA X-Planes

Accurate cost estimates help managers understand critical cost-risk information, which improves their perception of the impact project changes have on the budget and schedule. This research project examined buffer reserves, a key aspect of cost estimation. The main focus of this project was to utilize historical data to calculate the extent to which NASA programs typically exceed their original buffers.

cost analysis