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At least 37 records · Page 2

Bayesian estimation of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation for accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics

In some experiments, there might be a correlation of experimental errors such as an error caused by fabrication. The correlation of calculation errors also might exist among analyses of experiments. In the present study, considering these correlations, the cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are adjusted for the accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics. The adjustment method is derived based on Bayesian theory. The 'a posteriori' distributions of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are obtained by the derivation. The case study is performed by using the benchmarks of light-water moderated experiments reported in ICSBEP. The error from fuel rod fabrication and measurement are included in the experiment error, and the error from the simplification of the benchmark model is included in the calculation error. Since these errors have a positive correlation among the benchmarks, the prediction accuracy is expected to be improved by considering these correlations. For the sensitivity analysis of the correlation among benchmarks, the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error is assumed from 0.0 to 0.9. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the multiplication factor can be improved by increasing the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A comparison of deep-learning-based inpainting techniques for experimental X-ray scattering

The implementation is proposed of image inpainting techniques for the reconstruction of gaps in experimental X-ray scattering data. The proposed methods use deep learning neural network architectures, such as convolutional autoencoders, tunable U-Nets, partial convolution neural networks and mixed-scale dense networks, to reconstruct the missing information in experimental scattering images. In particular, the recovered pixel intensities are evaluated against their corresponding ground-truth values using the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient metrics. The results demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve better performance than traditional inpainting algorithms such as biharmonic functions. Overall, tunable U-Net and mixed-scale dense network architectures achieved the best reconstruction performance among all the tested algorithms, with correlation coefficient scores greater than 0.9980.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of the quantum state of top quark pairs produced in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using the beam and helicity bases

Measurements of the spin correlation coefficients in the beam basis are presented for top quark-antiquark $(t\bar{t}⁢)$ systems produced in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment in 2016–2018, and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The $t\bar{t}$ system is reconstructed from final states containing an electron or muon and jets. Together with the previously reported results in the helicity basis, these measurements are used to decompose the system into the Bell and spin eigenstates in various kinematic regions. The spin correlation coefficients are also used to evaluate properties of the $t\bar{t}$ quantum state, such as the purity, von Neumann entropy, and entanglement. All results are consistent with standard model predictions.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Physics Institute]↗

Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)

We compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced from the observed temperature much better than the CESM2. The correlation coefficient within the 1970–2012 time period between CESM1-simulated AA and the observed one is 0.47, while the CESM2 simulation leads to an anticorrelation of r = –0.53. Even the more successful model (CESM1) is not able to reproduce recent high AA values of 4–5. The main cause of this failure is the model’s overestimate of the rate of increase in the mean global temperature in years post 1990. When the CESM1 model’s simulated trend of the mean global temperature is replaced in the expression for the AA by the observed temperature trend, the correlation coefficient increases from 0.47 to 0.75. The CESM1 model is among the best north American models in AA simulation while the CESM2 model is among the least successful.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗

More Than 40 yr of Potentially Induced Seismicity Close to the San Andreas Fault in San Ardo, Central California

Evidence for fluid–injection–induced seismicity is rare in California hydrocarbon basins, despite widespread injection close to seismically active faults. We investigate a potential case of injection–induced earthquakes associated with San Ardo oilfield operations that began in the early 1950s. The largest potentially induced events occurred in 1955 (M L 5.2) and 1985 (M w 4.5) within ~6 km from the oilfield. We analyze Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometric images acquired by Sentinel–1A/B satellites between 2016 and 2020 and find surface deformation of up to 1.5 cm/yr, indicating pressure–imbalance in parts of the oilfield. Fluid injection in San Ardo is concentrated within highly permeable rocks directly above the granitic basement at a depth of ~800 m. Seismicity predominantly occurs along basement faults at 6–13 km depths. Seismicity and wastewater disposal wells are spatially correlated to the north of the oilfield. Temporal correlations are observed over more than 40 yr with correlation coefficients of up to 0.71 for seismicity within a 24 km distance from the oilfield. Such large distances have not previously been observed in California but are similar to the large spatial footprint of injection in Oklahoma. Furthermore, the San Ardo seismicity shows anomalous clustering with earthquakes consistently occurring at close spatial proximity but long interevent times. Similar clustering has previously been reported in California geothermal fields and may be indicative of seismicity driven by long–term, spatially persistent external forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Unique impacts of strong and westward-extended western Pacific subtropical high on ozone pollution over eastern China

As a subtropical anticyclonic high-pressure system that typically forms over the northwestern Pacific Ocean in summer, the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) affects meteorological conditions and ozone pollution in China. The relationship between maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O 3 ) concentrations and the extremely strong and westward-extended WPSH occurred in 2022 is investigated using observations, reanalysis data and GEOS-Chem model simulations. The intensity of WPSH has a significant positive correlation with MDA8 O3 over southern China during July-August in 2022, with a correlation coefficient of +0.44, but the correlation is negative (–0.40) in northern China. During the strong WPSH days, MDA8 O 3 increased by 16.5µgm -3 (16.4% relative to July-August average) over southern China and decreased by 19.0µgm -3 (14.5%) in northern China compared to the weak WPSH days. The unique dipole pattern in the relationship between ozone levels and the WPSH in 2022 exhibited a contrast to that during 2015–2021. The difference is primarily due to the extremely strong WPSH intensity and its unusual westward expansion in 2022. In this case, an anomalous anticyclone at 500 hPa dominates over southern China, which creates conditions conducive for ozone formation and accumulation. The anticyclone weakened horizontal winds and reduced the dispersion of ozone, alongside a high temperature and low relative humidity, which favored the chemical production of ozone. In contrast, abnormal northerly winds enhanced ozone diffusion in northern China and the low temperature reduced ozone chemical production. Here, this study reveals the mechanism for the significant impact of strong and westward-extended WPSH on ozone concentrations over China, emphasizing the role of the WPSH location in modulating meteorology and ozone levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitive parameter identification and uncertainty quantification for the stability of pipeline conveying fluid

In this study, several uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis methods are used to determine the most sensitive geometric and material input parameters of a cantilevered pipeline conveying fluid when uncertainty is introduced to the system at the onset of instability. The full nonlinear equations of motion are modeled using the extended Hamilton’s principle and then discretized using Galerkin’s method. A parametric study is first performed, and the Morris elementary effects are calculated to obtain a preliminary understanding of how the onset speed changes when each parameter is introduced to a ± 5% uncertainty. Then, four different input uncertainty distributions, mainly, uniform and Gaussian distribution, are chosen to investigate how input distributions affect uncertainty in the output. A convergence analysis is used to determine the number of samples needed to maintain simulation accuracy while saving the most computational time. Then, Monte Carlo simulations are run, and the output distributions for each input distribution at ± 1%, ± 3% and ± 5% input uncertainty range are found and discussed. Additionally, the Pearson correlation coefficients are evaluated for different uncertainty ranges. A final Monte Carlo study is performed in which single parameters are held constant while all others still have uncertainty. Overall, the flow speed at the onset of instability is the most sensitive to changes in the outer diameter of the pipe.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗

The Quest for New Correlations in the Realm of the Gamma-Ray Burst—Supernova Connection

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are very energetic cosmological transients. Long GRBs are usually associated with Type Ib/c supernovae (SNe), and we refer to them as GRB-SNe. Since the associated SN for a given GRB is observed only at low redshift, a possible selection effect exists when we consider intrinsically faint sources that cannot be observed at high redshift. Thus, it is important to explore the possible relationships between GRB and SN parameters after these have been corrected for astrophysical biases due to the instrumental selection effects and redshift evolution of the variables involved. So far, only GRB prompt emission properties have been checked against the SN Ib/c properties without considering the afterglow (AG). This work investigates the existence of relationships among GRBs’ prompt and AG and associated SN properties. We investigate 91 bidimensional correlations among the SN and GRB observables before and after their correction for selection biases and evolutionary effects. As a result of this investigation, we find hints of a new correlation with a Pearson correlation coefficient >0.50 and a probability of being drawn by chance <0.05. This correlation is between the luminosity at the end of the GRB optical plateau emission and the rest-frame peak time of the SN. According to this relation, the brightest optical plateaus are accompanied by the largest peak times. This correlation is corrected for selection biases and redshift evolution and may provide new constraints for the astrophysical models associated with the GRB-SN connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fast baryonic field painting for Sunyaev-Zel’dovich analyses: Transfer function vs hybrid effective field theory

Here, we present two approaches for “painting” baryonic properties relevant to the Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect—optical depth and Compton-y—onto three-dimensional N-body simulations, using the MillenniumTNG suite as a benchmark. The goal of these methods is to produce fast and accurate reconstruction methods to aid future analyses of baryonic feedback using the SZ effect. The first approach employs a Gaussian process emulator to model the SZ quantities via a transfer function, while the second utilizes hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) to reproduce these quantities within the simulation. Our analysis involves comparing both methods to the true MillenniumTNG optical depth and Compton-y fields using several metrics, including the cross-correlation coefficient, power spectrum, and power spectrum error. Additionally, we assess how well the reconstructed fields correlate with dark matter haloes across various mass thresholds. The results indicate that the transfer function method yields more accurate reconstructions for fields with initially high correlations (r ≈ 1), such as between the optical depth and dark matter fields. Conversely, the HEFT-based approach proves more effective in enhancing correlations for fields with weaker initial correlations (r ∼ 0.5), such as between the Compton-y and dark matter fields. Lastly, we discuss extensions of our methods to improve the reconstruction performance at the field level.

Liu, R. Henry [University of California, Berkeley,↗

HSC-XXL: Baryon budget of the 136 XXL groups and clusters

Abstract We present our determination of the baryon budget for an X-ray-selected XXL sample of 136 galaxy groups and clusters spanning nearly two orders of magnitude in mass (M500 ∼ 1013–1015 M⊙) and the redshift range 0 ≲ z ≲ 1. Our joint analysis is based on the combination of Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP) weak-lensing mass measurements, XXL X-ray gas mass measurements, and HSC and Sloan Digital Sky Survey multiband photometry. We carry out a Bayesian analysis of multivariate mass-scaling relations of gas mass, galaxy stellar mass, stellar mass of brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs), and soft-band X-ray luminosity, by taking into account the intrinsic covariance between cluster properties, selection effect, weak-lensing mass calibration, and observational error covariance matrix. The mass-dependent slope of the gas mass–total mass (M500) relation is found to be $1.29_{-0.10}^{+0.16}$, which is steeper than the self-similar prediction of unity, whereas the slope of the stellar mass–total mass relation is shallower than unity; $0.85_{-0.09}^{+0.12}$. The BCG stellar mass weakly depends on cluster mass with a slope of $0.49_{-0.10}^{+0.11}$. The baryon, gas mass, and stellar mass fractions as a function of M500 agree with the results from numerical simulations and previous observations. We successfully constrain the full intrinsic covariance of the baryonic contents. The BCG stellar mass shows the larger intrinsic scatter at a given halo total mass, followed in order by stellar mass and gas mass. We find a significant positive intrinsic correlation coefficient between total (and satellite) stellar mass and BCG stellar mass and no evidence for intrinsic correlation between gas mass and stellar mass. All the baryonic components show no redshift evolution.

Akino, Daichi↗

A Search for Correlations between Turbulence and Star Formation in LITTLE THINGS Dwarf Irregular Galaxies

Turbulence has the potential for creating gas density enhancements that initiate cloud and star formation (SF), and it can be generated locally by SF. To study the connection between turbulence and SF, we looked for relationships between SF traced by FUV images, and gas turbulence traced by kinetic energy density (KED) and velocity dispersion (v {sub disp}) in the LITTLE THINGS sample of nearby dIrr galaxies. We performed 2D cross-correlations between FUV and KED images, measured cross-correlations in annuli to produce correlation coefficients as a function of radius, and determined the cumulative distribution function of the cross-correlation value. We also plotted on a pixel-by-pixel basis the locally excess KED, v {sub disp}, and H i mass surface density, Σ{sub HI}, as determined from the respective values with the radial profiles subtracted, versus the excess SF rate density Σ{sub SFR}, for all regions with positive excess Σ{sub SFR}. We found that Σ{sub SFR} and KED are poorly correlated. The excess KED associated with SF implies a ∼0.5% efficiency for supernova energy to pump local H i turbulence on the scale of the resolution here, which is a factor of ∼2 too small for all of the turbulence on a galactic scale. The excess v {sub disp} in SF regions is also small, only ∼0.37 km s{sup −1}. The local excess in Σ{sub HI} corresponding to an excess in Σ{sub SFR} is consistent with a H i consumption time of ∼1.6 Gyr in the inner parts of the galaxies. The similarity between this timescale and the consumption time for CO implies that CO-dark molecular gas has comparable mass to H i in the inner disks.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Identification of Suitable Vacuum Gas Oils as Plasticizers Using HT-GC × GC-HRMS

Vacuum gas oils (VGOs) have long been heralded as effective plasticizers due to their high boiling-points and lubricating properties. One of these VGOs, HyVac Oil 93050, is a paraffinic plasticizer that is currently utilized in polymer–plasticizer explosive formulations, while this oil effectively increases the elasticity and decreases the sensitivity for current formulations. We seek to identify alternative VGOs with similar density, viscosity, molecular composition, and impurities for future formulations. In this study, 18 VGOs, including HyVac Oil 93050, were initially evaluated for their density and viscosity. The oils were then ranked based on physical characteristics and analyzed for molecular composition using high-temperature comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography with high-resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometry (HT-GC × GC-HRMS). Further, the HT-GC × GC-HRMS chromatograms of the top 10 most similar VGOs to HyVac Oil 93050, according to density, were compared utilizing the Pearson correlation coefficient. Three of the oils with densities similar to those of HyVac Oil 93050 had a Pearson correlation within the lot-to-lot variation of HyVac Oil 93050. For the top 3 candidates, Pearson correlation was then utilized as a feature selection technique to discover significant chemical differences. Positive chemical ionization (PCI) and negative chemical ionization (NCI) HT-GC × GC-HRMS chromatograms were also evaluated and aided in the discovery and identification of several key compounds including additives that acted as stabilizers for the VGOs. After this further chemical analysis, two of the original 17 potential VGOs were determined to be physically and chemically similar to HyVac Oil 93050.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Bayesian merging of numerical modeling and remote sensing for saltwater intrusion quantification in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Saltwater intrusion has become one of the most concerning issues in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) due to its increasing impacts on agriculture and food security of Vietnam. Reliable estimation of salinity plays a crucial role to mitigate the impacts of saltwater intrusion. Here, this study developed a hybrid technique that merges satellite imagery with numerical simulations to improve the estimation of salinity in the VMD. The salinity derived from Landsat images and by numerical simulations was fused using the Bayesian inference technique. The results indicate that our technique significantly reduces the uncertainties and improves the accuracy of salinity estimates. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient is 0.74, which is much higher than that of numerical simulation (0.63) and Landsat estimation (0.6). The correlation coefficient between the ensemble and measured salinity is relatively high (0.88). The variance of the ensemble salinity errors (5.0 ppt 2 ) is lower than that of Landsat estimation (10.4 ppt 2 ) and numerical simulations (9.6 ppt 2 ). The proposed approach shows a great potential to combine multiple data sources of a variable of interest to improve its accuracy and reliability wherever these data are available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonlinear ultrasonic technique for the characterization of microstructure in additive materials

This study employs nonlinear ultrasonic techniques to track microstructural changes in additively manufactured metals. The second harmonic generation technique based on the transmission of Rayleigh surface waves is used to measure the acoustic nonlinearity parameter, β. Stainless steel specimens are made through three procedures: traditional wrought manufacturing, laser-powder bed fusion, and laser engineered net shaping. The β parameter is measured through successive steps of an annealing heat treatment intended to decrease dislocation density. Dislocation density is known to be sensitive to manufacturing variables. In agreement with fundamental material models for the dislocation-acoustic nonlinearity relationship in the second harmonic generation, β drops in each specimen throughout the heat treatment before recrystallization. Geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) are measured from electron back-scatter diffraction as a quantitative indicator of dislocations; average GND density and β are found to have a statistical correlation coefficient of 0.852 showing the sensitivity of β to dislocations in additively manufactured metals. Moreover, β shows an excellent correlation with hardness, which is a measure of the macroscopic effect of dislocations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Functional Predictor Variables for the Leaching Potential of Arsenic and Selenium from Coal Fly Ash

The release of leachates from intact coal ash impoundments is a concern due to the enrichment and mobilization of toxic elements such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se). This study aims to explore the intrinsic properties of coal fly ash that correlate with the relative leachability of As and Se. We performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic regions. We assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition, and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, and Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗