Increasing frequency and precipitation intensity of convective storms in the Peruvian Central Andes: Projections from convection‐permitting regional climate simulations
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NASA conducted the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers (CRYSTAL) Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (FACE) during July 2002 for improved understanding of tropical cirrus. One of the goals was to improve the understanding of cirrus generation by convective updrafts. The reasons why some convective storms produce extensive cirrus anvils is only partially related to convective instability and the vertical transport ice mass by updrafts. Convective microphysics must also have an important role on cirrus generation, for example, there are hypotheses that homogeneous nucleation in convective updrafts is a major source of anvil ice particles. In this paper, we report on one intense CRYSTAL-FACE convective case on 16 July 2002 that produced extensive anvil. During CRYSTAL-FACE, up to 5 aircraft flying from low- to high-altitudes, were coordinated for the study of thunderstorm-generated cirrus. The NASA high-altitude (20 km) ER-2 aircraft with remote sensing objectives flew above the convection, and other aircraft such as the WB-57 performing in situ measurements flew below the ER-2. The ER-2 remote sensing instruments included two nadir viewing airborne radars. The CRS 94 GHz radar and the EDOP 9.6 GHz radar were flown together for the first time during CRYSTAL-FACE and they provided a unique opportunity to examine the structure of 16 July case from a dual-wavelength perspective. EDOP and CRS are complementary for studying convection and cirrus since CRS is more sensitive than EDOP for cirrus, and EDOP is considerably less attenuating in convective regions. In addition to the aircraft, coordinated ground-based radar measurements were taken with the NPOL S-Band (3 GHz) multiparameter radar. One of the initial goals was to determine whether dual-wavelength airborne measurements could identify supercooled water regions.
NASA conducted the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers (CRYSTAL) Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (FACE) during July 2002 for improved understanding of tropical cirrus. One of the goals was to improve the understanding of cirrus generation by convective updrafts. The reasons why some convective storms produce extensive cirrus anvils is only partially related to convective instability and the vertical transport ice mass by updrafts. Convective microphysics must also have an important role on cirrus generation, for example, there are hypotheses that homogeneous nucleation in convective updrafts is a major source of anvil ice particles. In this paper, we report on one intense CRYSTAL- FACE convective case on 16 July 2002 that produced extensive anvil.
An account is given of the radiative properties of hydrometeors in order to evaluate the influences of water, ice, and melting layers on the upwelling microwave radiances of convective storms. Attention is given to storm overflights conducted by the ER-2 aircraft in coordination with the NCAR dual-polarization/dual-wavelength mode radar. Radar-radiometer comparisons are conducted for one overflight from each day of the study campaign, using the various multiparameter radar observations to delineate regions of water, ice, and melting, as well as to obtain raindrop-size distribution. Model-computed brightness temperatures are compared with the ER-2 aircraft measurements.
GOES digital infrared data during the time period between two hours before the touchdown of tornado and the tornado touchdown time were used in this study. Comparison between tornado-associated clouds and non-tornado-associated clouds indicates that the difference between overshooting cloud top temperature and the tropopause temperature, or how much the cloud has penetrated above the tropopause, rather than either the absolute temperature of penetrative cloud top or the height of the top of overshooting turret is significant for the possible formation of severe storms. The penetrative overshooting cloud top collapses about 15 to 30 minutes before the touchdown of tornado. Gravity waves were detected from the severe convective storms.
The capability of a unique Airborne Doppler Lidar System to measure the horizontal winds in the vicinity of severe storm activity is demonstrated. The Airborne Doppler Lidar System (ADLS), developed at NASA/MSFC, was flown on a CV990 research aircraft during the CCOPE (Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiments, Montana, Summer 1981). Flown between 400 and 600 m AGL, the lidar probed the subcloud regions of several deep convection storms. ADLS data collected near storms on 21 and 23 July 1981 are presented along with satellite imagery, radar echo maps and surface station measurements. These case studies are evidence of the successful performance of an airborne remote wind sensing system and the advantages of two dimension flow visualization of storm outflow structures and interactions.
Major research accomplishments which were achieved during the first year of the grant are summarized. The research concentrated in the following areas: (1) an examination of observational requirements for predicting convective storm development and intensity as suggested by recent numerical experiments; (2) interpretation of recent 3D numerical experiments with regard to the relationship between overshooting tops and surface wind gusts; (3) the development of software for emulating satellite-inferred cloud properties using 3D cloud model predicted data; and (4) the development of a conceptual/semi-quantitative model of eastward propagating, mesoscale convective complexes forming to the lee of the Rocky Mountains.
The utility of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) retrieval datasets for mesoscale analysis is explored. A detailed mesoscale air mass analysis method is presented in which VAS soundings, satellite imagery, and conventional surface data are used to diagnose mesoscale differences in air mass character. Comparisons are made with radiosonde observations of the same air mass differences. A mesoscale air mass analysis is presented with a discussion of the role that the various air masses play in subsequent convective development. In a second technique, several VAS-derived thermodynamic parameters, such as positive and negative buoyant energy, are shown to be well suited to operational forecasting of convective storm development and evolution. The derivation of these parameters and their applications in forecasting are illustrated.
The structure, evolution and mechanisms of mesoscale convective disturbances are reviewed and observation techniques for "nowcasting" their nature are discussed. A generalized mesometeorological scale is given, classifying both low and high pressure systems. Mesoscale storms are shown often to induce strong winds, but their wind speeds are significantly less than those accompanied by submesoscale disturbances, such as tornadoes, downbursts, and microbursts. Mesoscale convective complexes, severe storm wakes, and flash floods are considered. The understanding of the evolution of supercells is essential for improving nowcasting capabilities and a very accurate combination of radar and satellite measurements is required.
Abstract. Isolated deep convective cloud life cycle and seasonal changes in storm properties are observed for daytime events during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon Experiment (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign to understand controls on storm behavior. Storm life cycles are documented using surveillance radar from initiation through maturity and dissipation. Vertical air velocity estimates are obtained from radar wind profiler overpasses, with the storm environment informed by radiosondes. Dry-season storm conditions favored reduced morning shallow cloud coverage and larger low-level convective available potential energy (CAPE) than wet-season counterparts. The typical dry-season storm reached its peak intensity and size earlier in its life cycle compared with wet-season cells. These cells exhibited updrafts in core precipitation regions (Z>35 dBZ) to above the melting level as well as persistent downdrafts aloft within precipitation adjacent to their cores. Moreover, dry-season cells recorded more intense updrafts to earlier life cycle stages as well as a higher incidence of strong updrafts (i.e., >5 m s−1) at low levels. In contrast, wet-season storms were longer-lived and featured a higher incidence of moderate (i.e., 2–5 m s−1) updrafts aloft. These storms also favored a shift in their most intense properties to later life cycle stages. Strong downdrafts were less frequent within wet-season cells aloft, indicating a potential systematic difference in draft behaviors, as linked to graupel loading and other factors between the seasons. Results from a stochastic parcel model suggest that dry-season cells may expect stronger updrafts at low levels because of larger low-level CAPE in the dry season. Wet-season cells anticipate strong updrafts aloft because of larger free-tropospheric relative humidity and reduced entrainment-driven dilution. Enhanced dry-season downdrafts are partially attributed to increased evaporation, dry-air entrainment mixing, and negative buoyancy in regions adjacent to sampled dry-season cores.
SEASAT synthetic aperture radar (SAR) echoes from the sea have previously been shown to be the result of rain and winds produced by convective stroms; rain damps the surface waves and causes ech-free holes, while the diverging winds associated with downdraft generate waves and associated echoes surrounding the holes. Gust fronts are also evident. Such a snapshot from 8 July 1978 has been examined in conjunction with ground-based radar. This leads to the conclusion that the SAR storm footprints resulted from storm processes that occurred up to an hour or more prior to the snapshot. A sequence of events is discerned from the SAR imagery in which new cell growth is triggered in between the converging outflows of two preexisting cells. In turn, the new cell generates a mini-squall line along its expanding gust front. While such phenomena are well known over land, the spaceborne SAR now allows important inferences to be made about the nature and frequency of convective storms over the oceans. The storm effects on the sea have significant implications for spaceborne wind scatterometry and rainfall measurements. Some of the findings herein remain speculative because of the great distance to the Miami weather radar-the only source of corroborative data.
An analysis is presented of a series of severe storms which occurred in the north central United States on 9 May 1979 and whose spatial distribution and movement correlate well with observed gravity waves. Two gravity wave trains of 2.1-3 mb amplitude, 2.5-3.3 h period and 240-265 km horizontal wavelength were isolated through power spectra analysis and cross-correlation techniques applied to National Weather Service barograph traces. The wave trains propagated in the 200 deg direction, which coincided with the jet axis, with a phase velocity of 20-30 m/s and within a 300 km wide band. The storms were identified on enhanced infrared GOES satellite pictures with the help of radar summaries. These convective systems initially developed in Nebraska and propagated north-northeast at 25 m/s, revealing wave-like characteristics with a separation of 300-400 km. The convective systems were closely linked to the observed wave trains with cell intensity, height and associated rainfall maximized at the wave ridge. One of the two wave trains developed in regions of weak or no convection and appeared to initiate more intense convective clusters downstream from the point of origin. It is shown that the characteristics of the wave trains are consistent with those of gravity waves generated in a region of strong vertical shear associated with the jet. It is suggested that the wave trains continue to extract energy from the basic state all along their track through critical level interaction.
The basic features of a new and improved bulk-microphysical parameterization capable of simulating the hydrometeor structure of convective systems in all types of large-scale environments (with minimal adjustment of coefficients) are studied. Reflectivities simulated from the model are compared with radar observations of an intense midlatitude convective system. Simulated reflectivities using the novel four-class ice scheme with a microphysical parameterization rain distribution at 105 min are illustrated. Preliminary results indicate that this new ice scheme works efficiently in simulating midlatitude continental storms.
The Tibet Plateau significantly affects the initiation and development of heavy rainfall and severe storms in China, just as the Rocky Mountains influence local severe storms in the United States. The study shows that the heavy rainfall in the Plateau area is usually preceded by a high growth rate of the convective clouds, followed by a rapid collapse of the cloud top. The study also shows that the tops of the convective clouds associated with heavy rainfall over the Plateau usually lie between the altitude of the two tropopauses which exist over the Plateau. There is good agreement between the collapsing of the cloud as observed from the satellite imagery, and the beginning of the rainfall observed by the ground stations and also between the dissipation of the cloud observed from the satellite infrared imagery, and the ending of the rainfall, observed by the ground stations. Comparison of the volumetric dissipation of clouds per unit area over the location of the ground station with the rainfall recorded at that station shows a linear relationship for rainfall mounts exceeding 8 mm. The ratio of observed rainfall at the ground station over the satellite observed cloud volume dissipation per unit area was also computed. The result shows that the ratio is almost constant with the value of 9.55 mm/(pixel . km/pixel) for rainfall amounts exceeding 15 mm; and the variation is less then 10 percent for rainfall mounts between 8 and 15 mm. Needless to say, further investigation is required to verify this ratio.
A radar development is presently funded by the NASA Mesoscale Atmospheric Research Program to build an X-band Doppler radar (EDOP) for the ER-2 aircraft for measuring the structure of updrafts and downdrafts in deep convective systems. In this paper, the radar's scientific objectives and characteristics are briefly reviewed. These objectives include documentation of deep isolated thunderstorms, examination of cloud top and anvil structure, structure of microscale convective systems, cloud microphysics, and testing of satellite precipitation estimation algorithms. System specifications for the radar are given.
Various mechanisms of secondary ice production (SIP) cause multiplication of numbers of ice particle, after the onset of primary ice. A measure of SIP is the ice enhancement ratio (“IE ratio”) defined here as the ratio between number concentrations of total ice (excluding homogeneously nucleated ice) and active ice-nucleating particles (INPs). A convective line observed on 11 May 2011 over the Southern Great Plains in the Mesoscale Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) campaign was simulated with the “Aerosol–Cloud” (AC) model. AC is validated against coincident MC3E observations by aircraft, ground-based instruments, and satellite. Four SIP mechanisms are represented in AC: the Hallett–Mossop (HM) process of rime splintering, and fragmentation during ice–ice collisions, raindrop freezing, and sublimation. The vertical profile of the IE ratio, averaged over the entire simulation, is almost uniform (10 2 to 10 3 ) because fragmentation in ice–ice collisions dominates at long time scales, driving the ice concentration toward a theoretical maximum. The IE ratio increases with both the updraft (HM process, fragmentation during raindrop freezing, and ice–ice collisions) and downdraft speed (fragmentation during ice–ice collisions and sublimation). As reported historically in aircraft sampling, IE ratios were predicted to peak near 10 3 for cloud-top temperatures close to the −12°C level, mostly due to the HM process in typically young clouds with their age less than 15 min. Here, at higher altitudes with temperatures of −20° to −30°C, the predicted IE ratios were smaller, ranging from 10 to 10 2 , and mainly resulted from fragmentation in ice–ice collisions.
Using passive microwave data from the NASA CV-990 aircraft and radar data collected during the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE), an empirical model was developed relating brightness temperatures sensed at 19.35 GHz to surface rainfall rates. This model agreed well with theoretical computations of the relationship between microwave radiation and precipitation in the tropics. The GATE aircraft microwave data was then used to determine the detailed structure of convective systems. The high spatial resolution of the data permitted identification of individual cells which retained unique identities throughout their lifetimes in larger cloud masses and allowed analysis of the effects of cloud merger.
Satellite radar retrievals of clouds and precipitation rely on assumptions about the microphysical properties of hydrometeors such as particle size distributions (PSDs) and massdimensional relationships, which have been shown to vary in distinct environments. A deeper understanding of linkages between mass-dimensional relationships, ice crystal shape, and radar reflectivities across cloud and precipitation regimes is necessary for developing new retrievals for upcoming satellite radar missions, including the INvestigation of Convective UpdraftS (INCUS), as well as future missions that will feature space-borne radars observing clouds, convection, and precipitation. This study investigates ice microphysical characteristics through aircraft in-situ and remote sensing observations from two convective events during the Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) in the Southern Great Plains, and tests implications for ice particle habit in forward modeled radar observations. During MC3E, the Ka/Ku- band High Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP) was onboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft, while in-situ measurements were taken onboard the University of North Dakota Citation. In-situ PSDs and particle shape information from optical array probe data are used to forward model radar reflectivities from particle scattering databases and are compared against HIWRAP reflectivities. Various particle combinations can be used to find agreement with HIWRAP observations, and the forward modeled reflectivities were sensitive to particle type. Varying the riming on the aggregate and graupel particles resulted in larger than 10 dB differences in reflectivities. The in-situ and radar observations imply the occurrence of aggregation, size sorting and lofting particles.