Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Conflict Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Cockpit Displays to Support Hazard Awareness in Free Flight

Three experiments are described which each examine different aspects of the formatting and integration of cockpit displays of traffic information to support pilots in traffic avoidance planning. The first two experiments compared two-dimensional (coplanar) with three-dimensional (perspective) versions of a cockpit display of traffic information. In Experiment 1, 30 certified flight instructors flew a series of traffic conflict detection and avoidance maneuvers around an intruder aircraft, sometimes in the presence of a second intruder. The results revealed an advantage for the coplanar display, particularly when there was vertical intruder behavior. In Experiment 2, 17 instructors flew with the coplanar and perspective formats when weather information was either overlaid or displayed separately. Again performance was best with the coplanar display, particularly when the weather data were overlaid. The results of both experiments are also discussed in ten-ns of the traffic maneuver stereotypes exhibited by the pilots. Experiment 3 examined the benefits of the two different predictor elements used in the coplanar displays of Experiments 1 and 2. The study was carried out in a multitask context. These elements were both found to improve safety (reduce actual and predicted conflicts) and to reduce workload, although the different elements affected workload in different ways. Neither predictor element imposed a cost to concurrent task performance.

Wickens, Christopher D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rippled metamaterials with scale-dependent tailorable elasticity

Thermally induced ripples are intrinsic features of nanometer-thick films, atomically thin materials, and cell membranes, significantly affecting their elastic properties. Despite decades of theoretical studies on the mechanics of suspended thermalized sheets, controversy still exists over the impact of these ripples, with conflicting predictions about whether elasticity is scale-dependent or scale-independent. Experimental progress has been hindered so far by the inability to have a platform capable of fully isolating and characterizing the effects of ripples. This knowledge gap limits the fundamental understanding of thin materials and their practical applications. Here, we show that thermal-like static ripples shape thin films into a class of metamaterials with scale-dependent, customizable elasticity. Utilizing a scalable semiconductor manufacturing process, we engineered nanometer-thick films with precisely controlled frozen random ripples, resembling snapshots of thermally fluctuating membranes. Resonant frequency measurements of rippled cantilevers reveal that random ripples effectively renormalize and enhance the average bending rigidity and sample-to-sample variations in a scale-dependent manner, consistent with recent theoretical estimations. The predictive power of the theoretical model, combined with the scalability of the fabrication process, was further exploited to create kirigami architectures with tailored bending rigidity and mechanical metamaterials with delayed buckling instability.

Applied Physical Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Automotive Intrusion Detection Through Multi-Modal Fusion: A CAN FD-LiDAR Approach

As vehicles become smarter and more autonomous, they increasingly depend on advanced sensors and communication technologies to operate securely. However, such growing dependence on technology—whether it’s CAN (Controller Area Network) for internal communication or LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) for sensing the world around them—also expands the attack surface for the types of cyber attacks. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDS) typically monitor these systems in isolation, limiting their ability to detect sophisticated, crosssystem attacks. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion approach that combines real-world CAN FD signals (from the HCRL dataset) with LiDAR features (from the nuScenes dataset) to enhance attack detection. Our method employs a twostage ensemble approach. Calibrated XGBoost and LightGBM models initially process CAN FD (Fuzzing Data) and LiDAR data independently, detecting timing anomalies and space abnormalities. They are subsequently logarithmically combined with a logistic regression meta-model along with 17 engineered features capturing cross-modal behavior, prediction conflicts, and nonlinear interactions. This approach achieves an AUC of 0.87 and an F1-score of 0.82, surpassing single-modality baselines and early fusion methods, at merely 2 ms inference latency. Compared with deep learning competitors, it is 3 times more efficient, providing a lightweight, interpretable, and real time solution to automotive cybersecurity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1984

Comments on the BLAG model - The carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle and its effect on atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 100 million years

A self-consistent method of determining initial conditions for the model presented by Berner, Lasaga, and Garrels (1983) (henceforth, the BLAG model) is derived, based on the assumption that the CO2 geochemical cycle was in steady state at t = -100 m.y. (million years). This initialization procedure leads to a dissolved magnesium concentration higher than that calculated by Berner, Lasaga, and Garrels and to a low ratio of dissolved calcium to bicarbonate prior to 60 m.y. ago. The latter prediction conflicts with the geologic record of evaporite deposits, which requires that this ratio remain greater than 0.5. The contradiction is probably caused by oversimplifications in the BLAG model, such as the neglect of the cycles of organic carbon and sulfur.

Kasting, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The behavior of fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 in the atmosphere of Jupiter

Studies of the entry of fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 into the atmosphere of Jupiter give conflicting predictions as to whether or not most of the energy is deposited above the clouds. Using analytical models, we find that for a typical fragment radius of 1.5 km, both deceleration and mass loss (ablation) are negligible above the 1 bar level, so most of the energy will be deposited below the clouds, where radiation is blocked from escaping. The bulk of the energy produced by entering fragments will be observable only if the energy deposited below the clouds is transported above the clouds by means other than radiation. We provide new calculations of the flattening of fragments by ram pressure, of radiation-driven evaporative ablation and of ablation of droplets formed by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability.

Field, G. B.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Comments on the BLAG model: the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle and its effect on atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 100 million years

A self-consistent method of determining initial conditions for the model presented by Berner, Lasaga, and Garrels (1983) (henceforth, the BLAG model) is derived, based on the assumption that the CO2 geochemical cycle was in steady state at t = -100 my (million years). This initialization procedure leads to a dissolved magnesium concentration higher than that calculated by Berner, Lasaga, and Garrels and to a low ratio of dissolved calcium to bicarbonate prior to 60 my ago. The latter prediction conflicts with the geologic record of evaporite deposits, which requires that this ratio remain greater than 0.5. The contradiction is probably caused by oversimplifications in the BLAG model, such as the neglect of the cycles of organic carbon and sulfur.

Evolution, Planetary↗
NASA NTRS2014

Investigating Surveillance Performance for UAS Detect-and-Avoid Systems

Most unmanned aircraft systems will be required to be equipped with a detect-and-avoid system that is capable of maintaining appropriate separation from other aircraft. One of the critical components of detect-and-avoid systems is a surveillance system that identifies potential threat aircraft in real time and tracks these aircraft so that their future trajectories may be used to predict conflicts. The performance of the detect-and-avoid system generally depends on technical parameters of the surveillance system, such as the surveillance range. The quantitative requirements for detect-and-avoid systems will be determined to meet safety metrics for the operation of unmanned aircraft systems in the National Airspace System. This study employs a sensor model comprised of the surveillance range, and horizontal and vertical fields of regard that mainly characterize the overall performance of a surveillance system. In this study, potential metrics for evaluating the performance of a surveillance system were investigated through fast-time simulation with a traffic scenario that included both proposed unmanned aircraft flights and historical visual flight rule aircraft tracks. Using the simulation results, an overall analysis of encounter geometry highlights the encounter characteristics that relate surveillance parameters to safety metrics and detect-and-avoid system performance. Then, given several candidate surveillance volumes, performance and safety metrics are derived; these metrics include the ratio of undetected and late-detected violations and the time to violation at first detection. These example metrics demonstrate the utility of the database of encounters created in this work, a database which will be useful in the derivation of required detect-and-avoid surveillance system requirements.

Lee, Seung Man↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Integration of a Conflict Probabilities Service for Upper Class E Traffic Management

This paper outlines the development and integration of a conflict probability calculation-based service designed for Upper Class E Airspace operations. A key aspect of this effort is the integration of the conflict probability calculation algorithm into a simulated situational awareness client application. This application serves as a tool for flight operators to submit operations for Upper Class E Airspace within a simulated environment. The focus is on validating the effectiveness of the service through simulated intentional conflicting scenarios. The paper delves into the practicalities of integrating the conflict probability service into the user interface of the simulated situational awareness client application. This integration aims to enhance the decision-making capabilities of ETM operators within the simulated environment. The experiments and observations conducted in this simulated facility provide insights into the operational effectiveness of the proposed approach. In conclusion, this paper emphasizes the development, integration, and simulation-based validation of a conflict probability calculation service for Upper Class E Airspace. The findings underscore the potential impact of our approach on decision-making within a simulated setting, contributing to the understanding of its practical applications in operational scenarios.

Upper Class E Traffic Management↗
NASA NTRS2011

Terminal - Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSafe)

The Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (TSAFE) has been previously tested as a conflict detection and resolution tool in the en-route phase of flight. Fast time simulations of a terminal version of this tool called Terminal TSAFE (T-TSAFE) have shown promise over the current conflict detection tools. It has shown to have fewer false alerts (as low as 2 per hour) and better prediction to conflict time than Conflict Alert. The tool will be tested in the simulated terminal area of Los Angeles International Airport, in a Human-in-the-loop experiment to identify controller procedures and information requirements. The simulation will include comparisons of T-TSAFE with NASA's version of Conflict Alert. Also, some other variables such as altitude entry by the controller, which improve T-TSAFE's predictions for conflict detection, will be tested. T-TSAFE integrates features of current conflict detection tools such as Automated Terminal Proximity Alert used to alleviate compression errors in the final approach phase. Based on fast-time simulation analysis, the anticipated benefits of T-TSAFE over Conflict Alert include reduced false/missed alerts and increased time to predicted loss of separation. Other metrics that will be used to evaluate the tool's impact on the controller include controller intervention, workload, and situation awareness.

Verma, Savita Arora↗
NASA NTRS2016

Conflict Resolution for Wind-Optimal Aircraft Trajectories in North Atlantic Oceanic Airspace with Wind Uncertainties

Air traffic in the North Atlantic oceanic airspace (NAT) experiences very strong winds caused by jet streams. Flying wind-optimal trajectories increases individual flight efficiency, which is advantageous when operating in the NAT. However, as the NAT is highly congested during peak hours, a large number of potential conflicts between flights are detected for the sets of wind-optimal trajectories. Conflict resolution performed at the strategic level of flight planning can significantly reduce the airspace congestion. However, being completed far in advance, strategic planning can only use predicted environmental conditions that may significantly differ from the real conditions experienced further by aircraft. The forecast uncertainties result in uncertainties in conflict prediction, and thus, conflict resolution becomes less efficient. This work considers wind uncertainties in order to improve the robustness of conflict resolution in the NAT. First, the influence of wind uncertainties on conflict prediction is investigated. Then, conflict resolution methods accounting for wind uncertainties are proposed.

wind uncertainties↗
NASA NTRS2021

Carolina Coastal Plain Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map Suitable Venus Flytrap Habitat in an Effort to Inform Conservation, Seed Banking, and Reintroduction in the Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills Regions

Although the carnivorous plant Venus flytrap (Dionaea muscipula) is recognized globally, its native range is restricted to a small portion of the North and South Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Within this limited range, Venus flytrap populations are threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the North Carolina Botanical Garden (NCBG), the University of North Carolina Herbarium (NCU), and the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program (NCNHP) to support Venus flytrap conservation. The team developed models based on species presence data and environmental variables using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) to create a 2021 habitat suitability map for Venus flytrap. These models incorporated Earth observations collected by Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI). To predict areas at high risk of development, the team produced a 2050 land-use change map using TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The team found potential areas of conflict between predicted habitat and forecasted future development. Many areas of suitable habitat were concentrated along the coast where development was likely to occur, placing populations there at risk of extirpation. Overlaying suitable habitat with forecasted land change also identified suitable habitats with minimal risk of development, which may serve as lasting Venus flytrap habitat. These results can inform the NCBG and NCNHP’s conservation decision-making, including targeted seed banking, reintroduction, and prioritization of enduring habitats for protection and management.

Monika Rock↗
NASA NTRS2022

Carolina Coastal Plain​ Ecological Forecasting

Although the carnivorous plant Venus flytrap (Dionaea muscipula) is recognized globally, its native range is restricted to a small portion of the North and South Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Within this limited range, Venus flytrap populations are threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the North Carolina Botanical Garden (NCBG), the University of North Carolina Herbarium (NCU), and the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program (NCNHP) to support Venus flytrap conservation. The team developed models based on species presence data and environmental variables using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) to create a 2021 habitat suitability map for Venus flytrap. These models incorporated Earth observations collected by Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI). To predict areas at high risk of development, the team produced a 2050 land-use change map using TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The team found potential areas of conflict between predicted habitat and forecasted future development. Many areas of suitable habitat were concentrated along the coast where development was likely to occur, placing populations there at risk of extirpation. Overlaying suitable habitat with forecasted land change also identified suitable habitats with minimal risk of development, which may serve as lasting Venus flytrap habitat. These results can inform the NCBG and NCNHP’s conservation decision-making, including targeted seed banking, reintroduction, and prioritization of enduring habitats for protection and management.

Monika Rock↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A 3D Simulation Platform for Decentralized Decision-Making in Advanced Air Mobility

This paper presents a general purpose, plug-and-play simulation platform for the use of future aviation stakeholders, such as urban airspace planners, air vehicle operators, ground operation managers, air traffic controllers and aviation researchers. The presented simulator platform is envisioned to serve as a toolkit to visualize, evaluate, and configure future advanced air mobility (AAM) operations. Highlighting features of this toolkit include a modular architecture that allows multiple smart unmanned aerial systems (UASs) to remotely connect to the simulation server and participate in decentralized decision-making scenario simulations. As an example of the decentralized decision-making scenario, an inter-agent negotiation-based conflict resolution use case is considered in this paper, where the UASs leverage the on-board/on-the-edge artificial intelligence (AI) capability to continually build situational awareness, and use this information to predict future conflicts and resolve them through machine-to-machine negotiation. As such operations are non-existent at scale currently, the presented simulation platform offers a viable and cost-effective alternative for assessing the efficacy of AAM research outcomes and challenges in future shared airspace usage. The simulation platform allows plug-n-play connectivity with AI and non-AI compute modules representing individual UAS’s flight control. Each module can interact with the simulation platform independently to communicate current and desired future states, situational awareness, and conflict resolution utilization costs for inter-agent negotiation. The simulation environment orchestrates realistic operational scenarios with spatiotemporal details, dynamic events, tactical conflict-resolution methods, interfaces for customizing air traffic control parameters, and information exchange uncertainties. In the future, this can serve as a community focused cloud simulation platform, incorporating multi-stakeholder airspace constraints from regulatory, government, city, and local agencies.

Aditya N Das↗
NASA NTRS2022

A 3D Simulation Platform for Decentralized Decision-Making in Advanced Air Mobility

This paper presents a general purpose, plug-and-play simulation platform for the use of future aviation stakeholders, such as urban airspace planners, air vehicle operators, ground operation managers, air traffic controllers and aviation researchers. The presented simulator platform is envisioned to serve as a toolkit to visualize, evaluate, and configure future advanced air mobility (AAM) operations. Highlighting features of this toolkit include a modular architecture that allows multiple smart unmanned aerial systems (UASs) to remotely connect to the simulation server and participate in decentralized decision-making scenario simulations. As an example of the decentralized decision-making scenario, an inter-agent negotiation-based conflict resolution use case is considered in this paper, where the UASs leverage the on-board/on-the-edge artificial intelligence (AI) capability to continually build situational awareness, and use this information to predict future conflicts and resolve them through machine-to-machine negotiation. As such operations are non-existent at scale currently, the presented simulation platform offers a viable and cost-effective alternative for assessing the efficacy of AAM research outcomes and challenges in future shared airspace usage. The simulation platform allows plug-n-play connectivity with AI and non-AI compute modules representing individual UAS’s flight control. Each module can interact with the simulation platform independently to communicate current and desired future states, situational awareness, and conflict resolution utilization costs for inter-agent negotiation. The simulation environment orchestrates realistic operational scenarios with spatiotemporal details, dynamic events, tactical conflict-resolution methods, interfaces for customizing air traffic control parameters, and information exchange uncertainties. In the future, this can serve as a community focused cloud simulation platform, incorporating multi-stakeholder airspace constraints from regulatory, government, city, and local agencies.

Aditya Das↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photoinduced hydrogen dissociation in thymine predicted by coupled cluster theory

The fate of thymine upon excitation by ultraviolet radiation has been the subject of intense debate. Today, it is widely believed that its ultrafast excited state gas phase decay stems from a radiationless transition from the bright ππ* state to a dark nπ* state. However, conflicting theoretical predictions have made the experimental data difficult to interpret. Here we simulate the early gas phase ultrafast dynamics in thymine at the highest level of theory to date. This is made possible by performing wavepacket dynamics with a recently developed coupled cluster method. Our simulation confirms an ultrafast ππ* to nπ* transition (τ = 41 ± 14 fs). Furthermore, the predicted oxygen-edge X-ray absorption spectra agree quantitatively with experiment. We also predict an as-yet uncharacterized πσ* channel that leads to hydrogen dissociation at one of the two N-H bonds. Similar behavior has been identified in other heteroaromatic compounds, including adenine, and several authors have speculated that a similar pathway may exist in thymine. However, this was never confirmed theoretically or experimentally. This prediction calls for renewed efforts to experimentally identify or exclude the presence of this channel.

Kjønstad, Eirik F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Definition and Demonstration of a Methodology for Validating Aircraft Trajectory Predictors

This paper presents a new methodology for validating an aircraft trajectory predictor, inspired by the lessons learned from a number of field trials, flight tests and simulation experiments for the development of trajectory-predictor-based automation. The methodology introduces new techniques and a new multi-staged approach to reduce the effort in identifying and resolving validation failures, avoiding the potentially large costs associated with failures during a single-stage, pass/fail approach. As a case study, the validation effort performed by the Federal Aviation Administration for its En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) system is analyzed to illustrate the real-world applicability of this methodology. During this validation effort, ERAM initially failed to achieve six of its eight requirements associated with trajectory prediction and conflict probe. The ERAM validation issues have since been addressed, but to illustrate how the methodology could have benefited the FAA effort, additional techniques are presented that could have been used to resolve some of these issues. Using data from the ERAM validation effort, it is demonstrated that these new techniques could have identified trajectory prediction error sources that contributed to several of the unmet ERAM requirements.

Vivona, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Extreme ultraviolet spectroscopy of Capella

The X-ray active binary system Capella was observed with a moderate-resolution extreme ultraviolet spectrograph from 200 to 330 A. Two low-level emission features were detected. One most likely is geocoronal He II 304 A emission, while the other probably originates from the corona of Capella. The weak stellar emission at 304 A is in direct conflict with predictions of the intrinsic stellar He II flux based on standard scaling arguments but is consistent with the only previous observation of Capella in the EUV. The most plausible explanation for the lack of stellar 304 A emission is a warm wind from the active G0 III star.

Green, James C.↗