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Presented in viewgraph form are techniques to improve the conceptual design of complex systems. The paper discusses theory of design, flexible software tools for computer aided design, and methods for enhancing communication among design teams.
Flight research experiments have demonstrated that adaptive flight controls can be an effective technology for improving aircraft safety in the event of failures or damage. However, the nonlinear, timevarying nature of adaptive algorithms continues to challenge traditional methods for the verification and validation testing of safety-critical flight control systems. Increasingly complex adaptive control theories and designs are emerging, but only make testing challenges more difficult. A potential first step toward the acceptance of adaptive flight controllers by aircraft manufacturers, operators, and certification authorities is a very simple design that operates as an augmentation to a non-adaptive baseline controller. Three such controllers were developed as part of a National Aeronautics and Space Administration flight research experiment to determine the appropriate level of complexity required to restore acceptable handling qualities to an aircraft that has suffered failures or damage. The controllers consist of the same basic design, but incorporate incrementally-increasing levels of complexity. Derivations of the controllers and their adaptive parameter update laws are presented along with details of the controllers implementations.
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A discomforting reality has materialized on the transportation scene: our existing air and ground infrastructures will not scale to meet our nation's 21st century demands and expectations for mobility, commerce, safety, and security. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity in the 21st century. Clearly, new thinking is required for transportation that can scale to meet to the realities of a networked, knowledge-based economy in which the value of time is a new coin of the realm. This paper proposes a framework, or topology, for thinking about the problem of scalability of the system of networks that comprise the aviation system. This framework highlights the role of integrated communication-navigation-surveillance systems in enabling scalability of future air transportation networks. Scalability, in this vein, is a goal of the recently formed Joint Planning and Development Office for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. New foundations for 21PstP thinking about air transportation are underpinned by several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems. Complexity science and modern network theory give rise to one of the technological developments of importance. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of scalability, efficiency, robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The paper offers an air transportation system topology as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system architectures, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. The topology proposed considers air transportation as a system of networks, within which strategies for scalability of the topology may be enabled by technologies and policies. In particular, the effects of scalable ICNS concepts are evaluated within this proposed topology. Alternative business models are appearing on the scene as the old centralized hub-and-spoke model reaches the limits of its scalability. These models include growth of point-to-point scheduled air transportation service (e.g., the RJ phenomenon and the 'Southwest Effect'). Another is a new business model for on-demand, widely distributed, air mobility in jet taxi services. The new businesses forming around this vision are targeting personal air mobility to virtually any of the thousands of origins and destinations throughout suburban, rural, and remote communities and regions. Such advancement in air mobility has many implications for requirements for airports, airspace, and consumers. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more places.
A discomforting reality has materialized on the transportation scene: our existing air and ground infrastructures will not scale to meet our nation's 21st century demands and expectations for mobility, commerce, safety, and security. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity in the 21st century. Clearly, new thinking is required for transportation that can scale to meet to the realities of a networked, knowledge-based economy in which the value of time is a new coin of the realm. This paper proposes a framework, or topology, for thinking about the problem of scalability of the system of networks that comprise the aviation system. This framework highlights the role of integrated communication-navigation-surveillance systems in enabling scalability of future air transportation networks. Scalability, in this vein, is a goal of the recently formed Joint Planning and Development Office for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. New foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation are underpinned by several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems. Complexity science and modern network theory give rise to one of the technological developments of importance. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of scalability, efficiency, robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The paper offers an air transportation system topology as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system architectures, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. The topology proposed considers air transportation as a system of networks, within which strategies for scalability of the topology may be enabled by technologies and policies. In particular, the effects of scalable ICNS concepts are evaluated within this proposed topology. Alternative business models are appearing on the scene as the old centralized hub-and-spoke model reaches the limits of its scalability. These models include growth of point-to-point scheduled air transportation service (e.g., the RJ phenomenon and the Southwest Effect). Another is a new business model for on-demand, widely distributed, air mobility in jet taxi services. The new businesses forming around this vision are targeting personal air mobility to virtually any of the thousands of origins and destinations throughout suburban, rural, and remote communities and regions. Such advancement in air mobility has many implications for requirements for airports, airspace, and consumers. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more places.
KEKADA, a system that is capable of carrying out a complex series of experiments on problems from the history of science, is described. The system incorporates a set of experimentation strategies that were extracted from the traces of the scientists' behavior. It focuses on surprises to constrain its search, and uses its strategies to generate hypotheses and to carry out experiments. Some strategies are domain independent, whereas others incorporate knowledge of a specific domain. The domain independent strategies include magnification, determining scope, divide and conquer, factor analysis, and relating different anomalous phenomena. KEKADA represents an experiment as a set of independent and dependent entities, with apparatus variables and a goal. It represents a theory either as a sequence of processes or as abstract hypotheses. KEKADA's response is described to a particular problem in biochemistry. On this and other problems, the system is capable of carrying out a complex series of experiments to refine domain theories. Analysis of the system and its behavior on a number of different problems has established its generality, but it has also revealed the reasons why the system would not be a good experimental scientist.
Multivariable control allows controller designs that can provide decoupled command tracking and robust performance in the presence of modeling uncertainties. Although the last two decades have seen extensive development of multivariable control theory and example applications to complex systems in software/hardware simulations, there are no production flying systems aircraft or spacecraft, that use multivariable control. This is because of the tremendous challenges associated with implementation of such multivariable control designs. Unfortunately, the curriculum in schools does not provide sufficient time to be able to provide an exposure to the students in such implementation challenges. The objective of this paper is to share the lessons learned by a practitioner of multivariable control in the process of applying some of the modern control theory to the Integrated Flight Propulsion Control (IFPC) design for an advanced Short Take-Off Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft simulation.
Continuous one dimensional nonconservative elastic systems under complex forces, examining stability theory
Large flexible spacecraft represent highly complex distributed-parameter systems. In theory, a distributed-parameter system possesses an infinite number of degrees of freedom. For practical reasons, however, it must be discretized, which implies truncation. From a structural dynamics point of view, a mathematical model can be made more accurate by retaining an increasing number of degrees of freedom. From a control theory point of view, however, an increasing number of degrees of freedom places severe demands on the reliability of the various control algorithms. There is a difference of at least one order of magnitude between the structural modeling requirements and control theory capability. One of the challenges of large space structures control technology is to bridge this difference.
Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.
Space systems can be characterized as both large and complex but they often rely on reusable subcomponents. One problem in the design of such systems is the representation and validation of the system, particularly at the higher levels of management. An automated tool is described for the representation, refinement, and validation of such complex systems based on a formal design theory, the Theory of Plausible Design. In particular, the steps necessary to automate the tool and make it a competent, usable assistant, are described.
The interactions that occur in human-teaming are inspiring novel aerospace designs aimed at improving how humans and machines, or multiple machines, work together. Unfortunately, current Systems Engineering processes are ill-equipped to handle these complex relationships and are unable to design and assure the safety for these systems. To close part of this gap, this paper introduces a novel system-theoretic analytical process to identify unsafe collaborative control actions. It is part of a broader set of techniques that extend the state-of-the-art in hazard analysis, System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), to systematically address collaboration. The method rigorously expresses the different ways multiple commands may be unsafe together. Using Systems Theory, it employs abstraction to manage the combinatorial complexity in enumerating control contributions from multiple collaborating components. An algorithm integrates these concepts into an end-to-end process and is supported by automation to enumerate, refine, prune, and prioritize unsafe combinations of control actions. The output of the method feeds the specification of system requirements to implement safety-guided design starting early in concept development. The process is demonstrated on a manned-unmanned aircraft teaming case study and finds new causal factors that were not previously found in a past hazard analysis of the same system.
Human operator dynamics during actual manual control or while monitoring the automatic control systems involved in air-to-air tracking, automobile driving, the operator of undersea vehicles, and remote handling are examined. Optimal control models and the use of mathematical theory in representing man behavior in complex man machine system tasks are discussed with emphasis on eye/head tracking and scanning; perception and attention allocation; decision making; and motion simulation and effects.
Analysis of specific problems in rotorcraft dynamics. Topics include hingeless rotor theory, dynamic stall modelling, periodic systems identification, analysis of complex systems with phasing matrices, flapping stability, flap-lag dynamics at high advance ratios, finite element analysis and fuselage free-vibration characteristics, coupled rotor/frame vibration methods, gust response characteristics with unsteady stall effects, antiresonance theory, cyclic feathering motions and dynamic loads, control load envelope shaping, rotor aeroelasticity, use of Floquet theory, theory of proprotors and tilt-rotors, two-bladed teetering rotors, stability of air and ground resonance, vertical-plane pendulum absorbers, multicyclic jet-flap control, engine/frame interface dynamics, and others. The minutes of the question and answer periods following the presentations are presented in the supplement. Individual items are announced in this issue.
Due to recent advances in methods and computers, the accuracy of ab calculations has reached a point where these methods can be used to provide accurate spectroscopic constants for small molecules; this will be illustrated with several examples. We will show how ab initio calculations where used to identify the Hermann infrared system in N2 and two band systems in CO. The identification of all three of these band systems relied on very accurate calculations of quintet states. The analysis of the infrared spectra of cool stars requires knowledge of the intensity of vibrational transitions in SiO for high nu and J levels. While experiment can supply very accurate dipole moments for nu = 0 to 3, this is insufficient to construct a global dipole moment function. We show how theory, combined by the experiment, can be used to generate the line intensities up to nu = 40 and J = 250. The spectroscopy of transition metal containing systems is very difficult for both theory and experiment. We will discuss the identification of the ground state of Ti2 and the spectroscopy of AlCu as examples of how theory can contribute to the understanding of these complex systems.
Some results of a new theory of multidimensional complex variables are reported, including analytic functions of a three-dimensional (3-D) complex variable. Three-dimensional complex numbers are defined, including vector properties and rules of multiplication. The necessary conditions for a function of a 3-D variable to be analytic are given and shown to be analogous to the 2-D Cauchy-Riemann equations. A simple example also demonstrates the analogy between the newly defined 3-D complex velocity and 3-D complex potential and the corresponding ordinary complex velocity and complex potential in two dimensions.
Many modeling, simulation and performance analysis studies of sampled imaging systems are inherently incomplete because they are conditioned on a discrete-input, discrete-output model that only accounts for blurring during image acquisition and additive noise. For those sampled imaging systems where the effects of digital image acquisition, digital filtering and reconstruction are significant, the modeling, simulation and performance analysis should be based on a more comprehensive continuous-input, discrete-processing, continuous-output end-to-end model. This more comprehensive model should properly account for the low-pass filtering effects of image acquisition prior to sampling, the potentially important noiselike effects of the aliasing caused by sampling, additive noise due to device electronics and quantization, the generally high-boost filtering effects of digital processing, and the low-pass filtering effects of image reconstruction. This model should not, however, be so complex as to preclude significant mathematical analysis, particularly the mean-square (fidelity) type of analysis so common in linear system theory. We demonstrate that, although the mathematics of such a model is more complex, the increase in complexity is not so great as to prevent a complete fidelity-metric analysis at both the component level and at the end-to-end system level: that is, computable mean-square-based fidelity metrics are developed by which both component-level and system-level performance can be quantified. In addition, we demonstrate that system performance can be assessed qualitatively by visualizing the output image as the sum of three component images, each of which relates to a corresponding fidelity metric. The cascaded, or filtered, component accounts for the end-to-end system filtering of image acquisition, digital processing, and image reconstruction; the random noise component accounts for additive random noise, modulated by digital processing and image reconstruction filtering; and the aliased noise component accounts for the frequency folding effect of sampling, modulated by digital processing and image reconstruction filtering.
As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST to reduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.