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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

D2U: Data Driven User Emulation for the Enhancement of Cyber Testing, Training, and Data Set Generation

Whether testing intrusion detection systems, conducting training exercises, or creating data sets to be used by the broader cybersecurity community, realistic user behavior is a critical component of a cyber range. Existing methods either rely on network level data or replay recorded user actions to approximate real users in a network. Our work is the first to produce generative models trained on actual user data (sequences of application usage) collected on endpoints. Once trained to the user's behavioral data, these models can generate novel sequences of actions %that appear to come from the same distribution as the training data. These sequences of actions are then fed to our custom software via configuration files, which replicate those behaviors on end devices. Notably, our models are platform agnostic and could generate behavior data for any emulation software package. In this paper we present our model generation process, software architecture, and an initial evaluation of the fidelity of our models. Our software is currently deployed in a cyber range to help evaluate the efficacy of defensive cyber technologies. We suggest additional ways that the cyber community as a whole can benefit from more realistic user behavior emulation. The data used to train our model, as well as sample configuration files produced by the model, are available at [redacted].

Oesch, T↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the impact of Byzantine attacks on coupled phase oscillators

Abstract For many coupled dynamical systems, the interaction is the outcome of the measurement that each unit has of the others as e.g. in modern inverter-based power grids, autonomous vehicular platoons or swarms of drones, or it is the result of physical flows. Synchronization among all the components of these systems is of primal importance to avoid failures. The overall operational state of these systems therefore crucially depends on the correct and reliable functioning of the individual elements as well as the information they transmit through the network. Here, we investigate the effect of Byzantine attacks where one unit does not behave as expected, but is controlled by an external attacker. For such attacks, we assess the impact on the global collective behavior of nonlinearly coupled phase oscillators. We relate the synchronization error induced by the input signal to the properties of the attacked node. This allows to anticipate the potential of an attacker and identify which network components to secure.

Tyloo, Melvyn (ORCID:0000000317614095)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Nuclear Reactor Operations Using Spatial Importance and Multisensor Networks

Distributed multisensor networks record multiple data streams that can be used as inputs to machine learning models designed to classify operations relevant to proliferation at nuclear reactors. The goal of this work is to demonstrate methods to assess the importance of each node (a single multisensor) and region (a group of proximate multisensors) to machine learning model performance in a reactor monitoring scenario. This, in turn, provides insight into model behavior, a critical requirement of data-driven applications in nuclear security. Using data collected at the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory via a network of Merlyn multisensors, two different models were trained to classify the reactor’s operational state: a hidden Markov model (HMM), which is simpler and more transparent, and a feed-forward neural network, which is less inherently interpretable. Traditional wrapper methods for feature importance were extended to identify nodes and regions in the multisensor network with strong positive and negative impacts on the classification problem. These spatial-importance algorithms were evaluated on the two different classifiers. The classification accuracy was then improved relative to baseline models via feature selection from 0.583 to 0.839 and from 0.811 ± 0.005 to 0.884 ± 0.004 for the HMM and feed-forward neural network, respectively. While some differences in node and region importance were observed when using different classifiers and wrapper methods, the nodes near the facility’s cooling tower were consistently identified as important—a conclusion further supported by studies on feature importance in decision trees. Node and region importance methods are model-agnostic, inform feature selection for improved model performance, and can provide insight into opaque classification models in the nuclear security domain.

Tibbetts, Jake↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dataset 2: A National Dataset on Human Choices in Pooled Rideshare, 2022

Dataset 2: A National Dataset on Human Choices in Pooled Rideshare, 2022. Dataset Description: Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Survey - Phase 2 (2022, N = 2,884). This dataset captures responses from a nationally representative sample of 2,884 adults across the United States to understand choice behaviors between personal and pooled rideshare services. The primary objective of this research is to investigate choice behaviors in rideshare services and provide insights that inform service design, policymaking, and transportation planning, with the aim of encouraging pooled rideshare adoption and enhancing transportation network energy efficiency. Data was collected via an online survey administered through a national panel provider. Participants ranged in age from 18 to 94 years, and representation from all U.S. regions. The survey was designed with a focus on investigating the stated-preference between personal and pooled rideshare services. Each participant responded to 20 stated-preference questions, where they were presented with a hypothesized situation to choose between a personal rideshare option and a pooled rideshare option to complete a trip. The sociodemographic information and attitudes towards factors of pooled rideshare acceptance were also collected to support the comprehensive investigation of participants’ rideshare choice behaviors. - Phase_2_Final - Each row represents an individual respondent, and each column corresponds to a variable such as stated-preference scenario attributes, stated-preference scenario responses, attitudes toward specific service features, and sociodemographic data. The data is available in both .CSV and .SAV formats. - Phase_2_Final_MapFile - The accompanying data dictionary explains all variable labels, response scales, and codes. An .XLSX format of the full survey instrument is included to support interpretation and reuse of the dataset.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Survey of Collectives

Due to the increasing sophistication and miniaturization of computational components, complex, distributed systems of interacting agents are becoming ubiquitous. Such systems, where each agent aims to optimize its own performance, but where there is a well-defined set of system-level performance criteria, are called collectives. The fundamental problem in analyzing/designing such systems is in determining how the combined actions of self-interested agents leads to 'coordinated' behavior on a iarge scale. Examples of artificial systems which exhibit such behavior include packet routing across a data network, control of an array of communication satellites, coordination of multiple deployables, and dynamic job scheduling across a distributed computer grid. Examples of natural systems include ecosystems, economies, and the organelles within a living cell. No current scientific discipline provides a thorough understanding of the relation between the structure of collectives and how well they meet their overall performance criteria. Although still very young, research on collectives has resulted in successes both in understanding and designing such systems. It is eqected that as it matures and draws upon other disciplines related to collectives, this field will greatly expand the range of computationally addressable tasks. Moreover, in addition to drawing on them, such a fully developed field of collective intelligence may provide insight into already established scientific fields, such as mechanism design, economics, game theory, and population biology. This chapter provides a survey to the emerging science of collectives.

Tumer, Kagan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model calibration of the liquid mercury spallation target using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions

The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source. We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some individual sensors experiencing up to 30% improvement. The calibrated simulations can aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime, which reduces abrupt failure and saves tremendous amount of costs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Order Model of Transactive Bidding Loads

Transactive energy (TE) has been identified to provide better grid efficiency and reliability by market-based transactive exchanges between energy producers and energy consumers. Simulations of TE systems are crucial to evaluate the benefits and impacts of different transactive mechanisms. However, such simulations can be time consuming due to the information exchange between various participants and complex co-simulation environments. In this paper, we develop a reduced order model to speed up the simulation of transactive systems in TE simulation platform (TESP) while achieving very low error between the reduced order and full model results. Specifically, the developed reduced order model consists of an aggregate responsive load agent which utilizes two Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with Long Short-Term Memory units (LSTMs) to enable transactive elements to collectively participate in the TE system. The proposed aggregate responsive load (ARL) agent is able to produce similar transactive behaviors to the full simulation model while achieving significant simulation time reduction. Finally, we also show that the developed model enables generalization of simulation results across different dates and across different number of loads included in the simulations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resilient Inverter-Driven Black Start with Collective Parallel Grid-Forming Operation

As modern power systems are experiencing exceptional changes with increasing penetrations of inverter-based resources (IBRs), system restoration using IBRs has received attention. Using local grid-forming (GFM) assets near consumers, engineered to establish grid voltages in the absence of a stiff grid, i.e., bottom-up restoration, a distribution system could obtain high system resilience by not relying on the bulk power system restoration, which requires significant human intervention and procedure. This paper studies the technical feasibility of the novel approach with detailed electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations. To thoroughly evaluate the potential of GFM inverters and the technical challenges in IBR-driven black start, a detailed three-phase inverter model is developed, including negative-sequence control for voltage balance and a phase-by- phase current limiter to sustain momentary overloading during the black start. To examine dynamic aspects of the black-start process, the EMT simulation also models transformer and motor dynamics to emulate their inrush and startup behaviors as well as network dynamics. In addition, active involvement of grid- following distributed energy resources is also studied to facilitate the black-start process. By allowing multiple GFM inverters to collectively black start without leader-follower coordination, we demonstrate that a system can achieve high resilience even with a fraction of assets lost. Two test cases of inverter-driven black start, using two and one GFM inverters, respectively, for a heavily unbalanced 2-MVA distribution feeder are demonstrated. Takeaways for further study and field deployment are provided.

grid-forming inverter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative Ceilometer-Radar Studies of Clouds Field Campaign Report

The Long Island Solar Farm (LISF) is a 32-megawatt solar photovoltaic power plant built through a collaboration including BP Solar, the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The LISF, located on the Brookhaven National Laboratory site, began delivering power to the LIPA grid in November 2011, and is currently one of the largest solar photovoltaic power plants in the eastern United States. It is generating enough renewable energy to power approximately 4,500 homes and is helping New York State meet its clean energy and carbon reduction goals. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BN)L has the LISF instrumented and is capturing solar insolation and power data that can be used for research purposes. Additional information on LISF is available here: https://www.bnl.gov/lisf/. A network of nine high-definition (HD cameras) and 32 pyranometers are deployed within the LISF for the purpose of monitoring the location and characteristics of clouds and available global horizontal irradiance at the surface across the region. Information collected by this network every 30 s is currently used in BNL’s solar NowCasting algorithm, which forecasts near-term solar energy availability accounting for the behavior of clouds. The most important parameters for forecasting the near-term solar energy availability are accurate estimations of their horizontal extend, horizontal motion, and cloud base height. Currently, images from nearly located cameras are used to estimate the cloud base height. In order to evaluate the potential of this method for estimating the cloud base height, we decided to deploy a Vaisala ceilometer at the LISF.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Black Start of Unbalanced Microgrids Harmonizing Single- and Three-Phase Grid-Forming Inverters

As power systems are transforming with increasing penetrations of inverter-based resources (IBRs), system restoration using IBRs has drawn attention. Using distributed grid-forming (GFM) assets located near critical loads, either three-phase or single-phase, to establish microgrid voltages in the absence of a bulk grid, a distribution system could obtain high system survivability. For swift and secure recovery of a critical load in a single-phase lateral, local single-phase GFM inverters can form a microgrid, and then it can be combined with a neighbouring grid with the inverters remaining in GFM mode for voltage and frequency regulation until the bulk grid comes online. It leads to dynamic interoperation of single-phase GFM inverters with three-phase ones in the black start process. This paper studies the novel approach with electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations. To evaluate the potential and the technical challenges of the heterogeneous IBR-driven black start, three-phase and single-phase GFM inverter models are developed, including negative-sequence control for voltage balance and a phase-by-phase current limiter (three-phase) and current magnitude limiter (single-phase). To examine dynamic aspects of the black-start process, the EMT simulation also models transformer and motor dynamics emulating their inrush and startup behavior as well as network dynamics. Involvement of grid-following assets to facilitate the black-start process is also modeled. By allowing multiple GFM inverters to collectively black start without leader-follower coordination, regardless of phases, a system can achieve extreme resilience. An inverter-driven black start of a heavily unbalanced 2-MVA distribution feeder using 1 three-phase and 3 single-phase GFM inverters is demonstrated. The simulation shows the heterogeneous system can maintain stability with the single-phase GFM dynamics coupled with the three-phase one.

grid-forming inverter↗

DOE OSTI2023

Black Start of Unbalanced Microgrids Harmonizing Single- and Three-Phase Grid-Forming Inverters: Preprint

grid-forming inverter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stardust Network Measurement Components (esnet-stardust-components) v1

This software contains a set of components that allow us to measure and analyze the use and performance of computer networks using existing off the shelf Open Source components organized into a scalable and extensible system. The components were developed for and used within ESnet's Stardust Measurement Environment. The components are used to collect, process and display network measurement data in an architecture that employs a combination of Elasticsearch, Logstash and Grafana. The advantage of this approach is we can tailor system behavior to our analytical needs and expand its capability with new types of network measurement without waiting for a commercial vendor to support our fairly niche use cases. Additionally we have existing collaborations within our community that came about from prior research efforts that will benefit from the release of this software so that others can also contribute features.

Balas, Edward↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Cyber Supply Chain Incidents with Multilayered Graph Motifs

As noted within the literature, supply chain includes people and organizations---manufacturers, integrators, and third-party vendors---that are involved in one or more stages of a product lifecycle. Since supply chains, by definition, include organizations and people, supply chain risk management activities must consider dependencies between an organization's business processes and third-party resources. Just as adversarial tactics can be implemented via techniques implemented via networked computer systems, so can such tactics be expressed via legal business relationships. A cyber incident may have an exponential impact downstream, for example, by leveraging a product's distribution channel (e.g. malicious updates in SolarWinds, buggy updates in CrowdStrike). Similarly, legitimate and legal business relationships also affect the attack surface exposure of systems, enabling long-term persistence and/or unknown impacts to product quality that are hard to detect. This paper catalogs several recent digital supply chain incidents and applies a multilayered network formalism to develop structural indicators (graph motifs) that reflect potentially-adversarial behavior. Finally, we compare and contrast the characteristics of adversarial tactics (e.g. Loss of Availability, Data Collection) that leverage cyber-physical dependencies to those that leverage legal organizational relationships.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resilient Inverter-Driven Black Start with Collective Parallel Grid-Forming Operation: Preprint

As the modern power systems are experiencing exceptional changes with increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs), system restoration using IBRs has received attention. Using local grid-forming (GFM) assets near consumers, engineered to establish grid voltages in the absence of a stiff grid, i.e., bottom-up restoration, a distribution system would obtain high system resilience, by not relying on the bulk power system restoration requiring significant human intervention and procedure to restore. This paper studies the technical feasibility of the novel approach with detailed electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations. To thoroughly evaluate the potential of GFM inverters and technical challenges in IBR-driven black start, a detailed three-phase inverter model is developed, including negative-sequence control for voltage balance and a phase-by-phase current limiter to sustain momentary overloading during the black start. To examine dynamic aspects of the black start process, the EMT simulation also models transformer and motor dynamics to emulate their inrush and start-up behaviors as well as network dynamics. In addition, active involvement of grid-following distributed energy resources (DER) is also studied to facilitate the black start process. It is shown that, by allowing multiple GFM inverters to collectively black start without master-slave coordination, a system can achieve high resilience even with a fraction of assets lost. Two test cases of inverter-driven black start using two and one GFM inverters, respectively, for a heavily unbalanced 2-MVA distribution feeder are demonstrated. Takeaways for further study and field deployment are provided.

grid-forming inverter↗

NASA NTRS1997

Object-Oriented Control System Design Using On-Line Training of Artificial Neural Networks

This report deals with the object-oriented model development of a neuro-controller design for permanent magnet (PM) dc motor drives. The system under study is described as a collection of interacting objects. Each object module describes the object behaviors, called methods. The characteristics of the object are included in its variables. The knowledge of the object exists within its variables, and the performance is determined by its methods. This structure maps well to the real world objects that comprise the system being modeled. A dynamic learning architecture that possesses the capabilities of simultaneous on-line identification and control is incorporated to enforce constraints on connections and control the dynamics of the motor. The control action is implemented "on-line", in "real time" in such a way that the predicted trajectory follows a specified reference model. A design example of controlling a PM dc motor drive on-line shows the effectiveness of the design tool. This will therefore be very useful in aerospace applications. It is expected to provide an innovative and noval software model for the rocket engine numerical simulator executive.

Rubaai, Ahmed↗

NASA NTRS2012

Multiscale Dynamics of Solar Magnetic Structures

Multiscale topological complexity of the solar magnetic field is among the primary factors controlling energy release in the corona, including associated processes in the photospheric and chromospheric boundaries.We present a new approach for analyzing multiscale behavior of the photospheric magnetic flux underlying these dynamics as depicted by a sequence of high-resolution solar magnetograms. The approach involves two basic processing steps: (1) identification of timing and location of magnetic flux origin and demise events (as defined by DeForest et al.) by tracking spatiotemporal evolution of unipolar and bipolar photospheric regions, and (2) analysis of collective behavior of the detected magnetic events using a generalized version of the Grassberger-Procaccia correlation integral algorithm. The scale-free nature of the developed algorithms makes it possible to characterize the dynamics of the photospheric network across a wide range of distances and relaxation times. Three types of photospheric conditions are considered to test the method: a quiet photosphere, a solar active region (NOAA 10365) in a quiescent non-flaring state, and the same active region during a period of M-class flares. The results obtained show (1) the presence of a topologically complex asymmetrically fragmented magnetic network in the quiet photosphere driven by meso- and supergranulation, (2) the formation of non-potential magnetic structures with complex polarity separation lines inside the active region, and (3) statistical signatures of canceling bipolar magnetic structures coinciding with flaring activity in the active region. Each of these effects can represent an unstable magnetic configuration acting as an energy source for coronal dissipation and heating.

Magnetic fields↗

NASA NTRS1990

MEASURE: An integrated data-analysis and model identification facility

The first phase of the development of MEASURE, an integrated data analysis and model identification facility is described. The facility takes system activity data as input and produces as output representative behavioral models of the system in near real time. In addition a wide range of statistical characteristics of the measured system are also available. The usage of the system is illustrated on data collected via software instrumentation of a network of SUN workstations at the University of Illinois. Initially, statistical clustering is used to identify high density regions of resource-usage in a given environment. The identified regions form the states for building a state-transition model to evaluate system and program performance in real time. The model is then solved to obtain useful parameters such as the response-time distribution and the mean waiting time in each state. A graphical interface which displays the identified models and their characteristics (with real time updates) was also developed. The results provide an understanding of the resource-usage in the system under various workload conditions. This work is targeted for a testbed of UNIX workstations with the initial phase ported to SUN workstations on the NASA, Ames Research Center Advanced Automation Testbed.

Singh, Jaidip↗