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At least 37 records · Page 2

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

Cess, R. D.↗

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Chen, Wei-Ting↗

POMS, Polar Meteorological Satellite: A contribution for global radiation budget measurement

A proposal for a climate research mission specialized to Earth radiation budget measurements is given. This mission requires daily global coverage established by a system of three orbiting satellites. One of them is represented by the European Space Agency satellite SEOCS that is on a drifting orbit with respect to the Sun with 57 degrees inclination. The two others are polar orbiting satellites (POMS). The mission concept is treated with reference to the payload side requirements, the choice of orbit, orbital analysis, and satellite requirements.

Puls, J.↗

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX) - Some questions answered

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX) is to provide a basis for improving the understanding of the general circulation of the global oceans. In the context of this experiment, measurements of the surface topography of the oceans are to be conducted with the aid of radar altimetry. The obtained data, when combined with appropriate in situ observations, will make it possible to determine the three-dimensional structure of the ocean currents. The in situ observations needed are to be provided by the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). Information regarding the ocean surface winds obtained with the aid of the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) to be flown on the Navy Remote Ocean Sensing System (N-ROSS) can supplement the TOPEX and WOCE data about the oceans. The TOPEX satellite is to be designed for a three year lifetime, but it will carry expendables for two additional years. Attention is given to TOPEX as an international program, aspects of timing regarding the conduction of the various experiments dealing with the oceans and the global climate, and the special characteristics of the TOPEX mission.

Townsend, W. F.↗

The Sun as a Variable Star: Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variations; Colloquium of the International Astronomical Union, 143rd, Boulder, CO, Jun. 20-25, 1993

Variations in solar and stellar irradiances have long been of interest. An International Astronomical Union (IAU) colloquium reviewed such relevant subjects as observations, theoretical interpretations, and empirical and physical models, with a special emphasis on climatic impact of solar irradiance variability. Specific topics discussed included: (1) General Reviews on Observations of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (2) Observational Programs for Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (3) Variability of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Related to the Network, Active Regions (Sunspots and Plages), and Large-Scale Magnetic Structures; (4) Empirical Models of Solar Total and Spectral Irradiance Variability; (5) Solar and Stellar Oscillations, Irradiance Variations and their Interpretations; and (6) The Response of the Earth's Atmosphere to Solar Irradiance Variations and Sun-Climate Connections.

Pap, Judit M.↗

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program May 2003 Intensive Operations Period Examining Aerosol Properties and Radiative Influences: Preface to Special Section

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate by scattering and absorbing radiation in clear air (direct effects) and by serving as cloud condensation nuclei, modifying the microphysical properties of clouds, influencing radiation and precipitation development (indirect effects). Much of present uncertainty in forcing of climate change is due to uncertainty in the relations between aerosol microphysical and optical properties and their radiative influences (direct effects) and between microphysical properties and their ability to serve as cloud condensation nuclei at given supersaturations (indirect effects). This paper introduces a special section that reports on a field campaign conducted at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in North Central Oklahoma in May, 2003, examining these relations using in situ airborne measurements and surface-, airborne-, and space-based remote sensing.

Ferrare, Richard↗

Some Impacts of Solar Irradiance Variation on Terrestrial Climate

As chairman of the Special Session addressing the above topic, a brief overview of the problem will be offered, after which 20-minute talks will be given on the determination of solar irradiance variations from space observations (Dr. Judit Pap) and from groundbased measurements of solar magnetic fields (Dr. Harrison Jones). The chairman will then introduce four panel members representing different areas of expertise bearing on the topic. Each panel member will offer a brief 5-minute summary of his views. Panel members are: Chick Keller, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Drew Shindell, Goddard Institute for Space Science, Columbia University; Michael Schlesinger, University of Illinois; Sabatino Sofia, Yale University. General Circulation Models of the terrestrial atmosphere, the possible impact on this atmosphere of large percentage changes in the solar EUV over a solar cycle, and the role of strong magnetic field in the solar convection zone on irradiance variation will all be considered in brief summaries. The chairman will conclude the session by facilitating a discussion between the audience, the main speakers, and the panel members.

Jordan, Stuart D.↗

Improving Aerosol Simulation over South Asia for Climate and Air Quality Studies

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, the water cycle, and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions found there. However, it has been proved quite challenging to adequately represent the aerosol spatial distribution and magnitude over this critical region in global models (Pan et al. 2014), with the surface concentrations, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and absorbing AOD (AAOD) significantly underestimated, especially in October-January when the agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic aerosol dominate over dust aerosol. In this study, we aim to investigate the causes for such discrepancy in winter by conducting sets of model experiments with NASA's GEOS-5 in terms of (1) spatial resolution, (2) emission amount, and (3) meteorological fields.

Aerosol simulation↗

Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City

The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City's ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28 - 53 cm by the 2050s and 46 - 99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000 - 2004 (mid-range, 25th - 75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9-4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0 - 5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement with stakeholders and community-based organizations.

Coastal flooding↗

Buoy systems during the PGGE

The data quality, impact, and application of various buoy systems deployed during the FGGE are discussed. Three general categories of buoy systems provided critical coverage of environmental phenomena in the Arctic Ocean basin, the tropical oceans, and the Southern Hemisphere. Results of the added pressure information in the Arctic are presented. The impacts of the Southern Hemisphere buoy systems on pressure fields, SST fields, and ocean circulation are provided. Those findings from the tropical drifters, relevant to the FGGE time scales, are indicated. All three types of buoy systems, each uniquely engineered for application in different regions of our planet, contributed to the broad objective of advancing weather and climate predictions in several special ways. Comments are provided about the role of buoys in a future observing system, and a consortium of interested countries is strongly advocated in order to accelerate this role.

Fleming, R. J.↗

Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 C over the subtropics and 3-5 C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional downscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in Africa.

climate change↗

Operator's Manual for SHEBA Powered Tether Balloon System

The Surface Heat and Energy Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) was an intensive field project which took place in the Arctic Ocean from October 1997 through October 1998. Its purpose was to measure as many facets of the Arctic environment as possible so that we would be able to better understand the interaction between the ice, atmosphere, and ocean and their interactions with global climate. One aspect of the atmospheric field component was launching tethered balloons to monitor the profiles of temperature, wind, pressure, and humidity, as well as examine the vertical structure of cloud droplet sizes and distributions. The tethered balloon that we used was one specially designed for use in freezing climates by SPEC Corporation in Boulder, Colorado. A special winch that was able to withstand Arctic temperature and weather became necessary when the testing of simple winch systems used in warmer climates failed under these extreme conditions. The purpose of this manual is to acquaint any new user to the powered tethered balloon system deployed at the The Surface Heat and Energy Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA ice camp. It includes a description of the preparations necessary to get ready for a launch, the mechanics of the actual launch, and an account of the proper procedure for taking down the equipment when finished. It will also include tips on how to minimize potential equipment failures, some trouble shooting, and some safety ideas. This manual is designed so that new operators can use the system with minimal previous training. At the end of this manual, the reader will find a quick checklist.

Lappen, Cara-Lyn↗

The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS): a New Lidar for Aerosol and Cloud Profiling from the International Space Station

Spaceborne lidar profiling of aerosol and cloud layers has been successfully implemented during a number of prior missions, including LITE, ICESat, and CALIPSO. Each successive mission has added increased capability and further expanded the role of these unique measurements in wide variety of applications ranging from climate, to air quality, to special event monitoring (ie, volcanic plumes). Many researchers have come to rely on the availability of profile data from CALIPSO, especially data coincident with measurements from other A-Train sensors. The CALIOP lidar on CALIPSO continues to operate well as it enters its fifth year of operations. However, active instruments have more limited lifetimes than their passive counterparts, and we are faced with a potential gap in lidar profiling from space if the CALIOP lidar fails before a new mission is operational. The ATLID lidar on EarthCARE is not expected to launch until 2015 or later, and the lidar component of NASA's proposed Aerosols, Clouds, and Ecosystems (ACE) mission would not be until after 2020. Here we present a new aerosol and cloud lidar that was recently selected to provide profiling data from the International Space Station (ISS) starting in 2013. The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) is a three wavelength (1064, 532, 355 nm) elastic backscatter lidar with HSRL capability at 532 nm. Depolarization measurements will be made at all wavelengths. The primary objective of CATS is to continue the CALIPSO aerosol and cloud profile data record, ideally with overlap between both missions and EarthCARE. In addition, the near real time data capability of the ISS will enable CATS to support operational applications such as air quality and special event monitoring. The HSRL channel will provide a demonstration of technology and a data testbed for direct extinction retrievals in support of ACE mission development. An overview of the instrument and mission will be provided, along with a summary of the science objectives and simulated data.

Welton, Ellsworth J.↗

The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS): A New Lidar for Aerosol and Cloud Profiling from the International Space Station

Spaceborne lidar profiling of aerosol and cloud layers has been successfully implemented during a number of prior missions, including LITE, ICESat, and CALIPSO. Each successive mission has added increased capability and further expanded the role of these unique measurements in wide variety of applications ranging from climate, to air quality, to special event monitoring (ie, volcanic plumes). Many researchers have come to rely on the availability of profile data from CALIPSO, especially data coincident with measurements from other A-Train sensors. The CALIOP lidar on CALIPSO continues to operate well as it enters its fifth year of operations. However, active instruments have more limited lifetimes than their passive counterparts, and we are faced with a potential gap in lidar profiling from space if the CALIOP lidar fails before a new mission is operational. The ATLID lidar on EarthCARE is not expected to launch until 2015 or later, and the lidar component of NASA's proposed Aerosols, Clouds, and Ecosystems (ACE) mission would not be until after 2020. Here we present a new aerosol and cloud lidar that was recently selected to provide profiling data from the International Space Station (ISS) starting in 2013. The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) is a three wavelength (1064,532,355 nm) elastic backscatter lidar with HSRL capability at 532 nm. Depolarization measurements will be made at all wavelengths. The primary objective of CATS is to continue the CALIPSO aerosol and cloud profile data record, ideally with overlap between both missions and EarthCARE. In addition, the near real time (NRT) data capability ofthe ISS will enable CATS to support operational applications such as aerosol and air quality forecasting and special event monitoring. The HSRL channel will provide a demonstration of technology and a data testbed for direct extinction retrievals in support of ACE mission development. An overview of the instrument and mission will be provided, along with a summary of the science objectives and simulated data. Input from the ICAP community is desired to help plan our NRT mission goals and interactions with ICAP forecasters.

Welton, Ellsworth J.↗

Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature since the publication of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. he assessment is undertaken within the context of the evolving international landscape, in particular, developments in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, including the outcomes of the Kyoto Protocol and the adoption of the Paris Agreement. It reflects the increasing diversity of those involved in climate action. This report integrates the main findings of the AR6 Working Group reports and the three AR6 Special Reports. It recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development. Building on multiple analytical frameworks, including those from the physical and social sciences, this report identifies opportunities for transformative action which are effective, feasible, just and equitable using concepts of systems transitions and resilient development pathways. Different regional classification schemes4 are used for physical, social and economic aspects, reflecting the underlying literature.

climate impacts↗

Giovanni: A System for Rapid Access, Visualization and Analysis of Earth Science Data Online

Collecting data and understanding data structures traditionally are the first steps that a user must take, before the core investigation can begin. This is a time-consuming and challenging task, especially when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data that are usually in different formats and internal structures. The Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has created the GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and ANalysis Infrastructure, Giovanni, to enable Web-based visualization and analysis of satellite remotely sensed meteorological, oceanographic, and hydrologic data sets, without users having to download data. The current operational Giovanni interfaces provide the capability to process a number of important satellite measurements, such as (1) ozone and other trace gases from TOMS, OMI, HALOE, and MLS; (2) air temperature, water vapor, and geopotential height from AIRS; (3) aerosols from MODIS TerrdAqua, and GOCART model; (4) precipitation from TRMM and ground measurements; (5) chlorophyll and other ocean color products from SeaWiFS and MODIS Aqua; and (6) sea surface temperature from MODIS Aqua. Depending on the input data structure, the system provides simple statistical analysis and creates time-averaged area plot, area-averaged time series, animations, Hovmoller latitude vs. time and longitude vs. time plots, as well as vertical profiles. The inter-comparison interfaces allow a user to compare observations from different instruments, to conduct anomaly analysis, and to study basic relationships between physical parameters. Giovanni handles data with different temporal and spatial resolutions and, thus, enables both regional and global long-term climate research and short-term special events investigation, as well as data validations and assessments. Because of its simplicity of usage, Giovanni is powerful and versatile, able to assist a wide range of users, from the discipline scientists conducting preliminary research in various fields, to students in the classroom learning about weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. Giovanni can be accessed from: http://disc. esfc.nasa.gov/techlab/giovanni/index.shtml

Shen, S.↗

Mars - Epochal climate change and volatile history

The epochal climate change and volatile history of Mars are examined, with special attention given to evidence for and mechanisms of long-term climate change. Long-term climate change on Mars is indicated most directly by the presence, age, and distribution of the valley networks. They were almost certainly formed by running water, but it seems more likely that they were formed by groundwater sapping than by rainfall. It is argued to be physically plausible that a higher early intensity of surface insolation caused by a CO2 greenhouse effect could have overcompensated for an early weak sun and raised temperatures to the freezing point near the equator under favorable conditions of obliquity and eccentricity. This could account for the morphological changes.

Fanale, Fraser P.↗