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NASA NTRS1978

The effect of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

A zonally averaged climate model is used to investigate the effects of different evaporation parameterizations on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations. The model is based on the annual mean zonally averaged hemispheric climate model of Ohring and Adler (1978), with some modifications on the heating parameterizations. The dynamic model utilizes the two-level quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equations. The heating processes are related to solar radiation, long-wave radiation, convection, evaporation, latent heat release, and ocean transport. Evaporation parameterization has been improved by using a nonlinear formulation in which the Bowen ratio is determined by the vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature near the earth's surface.

Chow, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS2020

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Climate↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale Climate Features and Climate Sensitivity

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impact of Albedo Contrast Between Cirrus and Boundary-Layer Clouds on Climate Sensitivity

In assessing the iris effect suggested by Lindzen et al. (2001), Fu et al. (2001) found that the response of high-level clouds to the sea surface temperature had an effect of reducing the climate sensitivity to external radiative forcing, but the effect was not as strong as LCH found. This weaker reduction in climate sensitivity was due to the smaller contrasts in albedos and effective emitting temperatures between cirrus clouds and the neighboring regions. FBH specified the albedos and the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the LCH 3.5-box radiative-convective model by requiring that the model radiation budgets at the top of the atmosphere be consistent with that inferred from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). In point of fact, the constraint by radiation budgets alone is not sufficient for deriving the correct contrast in radiation properties between cirrus clouds and the neighboring regions, and the approach of FBH to specifying those properties is, we feel inappropriate for assessing the iris effect.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗
NASA NTRS2018

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Marvel, Kate↗
NASA NTRS2022

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.

equilibrium climate sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS1979

The effects of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

The effects of two different evaporation parameterizations on the climate sensitivity to solar constant variations are investigated by using a zonally averaged climate model. The model is based on a two-level quasi-geostrophic zonally averaged annual mean model. One of the evaporation parameterizations tested is a nonlinear formulation with the Bowen ratio determined by the predicted vertical temperature and humidity gradients near the earth's surface. The other is the linear formulation with the Bowen ratio essentially determined by the prescribed linear coefficient.

Chou, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Climate sensitivity from fluctuation dissipation - Some simple model tests

Leith has suggested that climatic response to change in external forcing parameters of the climate system may be estimated via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT). The method, which uses the natural fluctuations of the atmosphere to probe its dynamics, is tested here using a twenty-variable truncation model of the barotropic vorticity equation. Dissipative terms are added to the equations, so that the model is pushed away from the region where it is expected to satisfy the FDT. It is found that, even though the FDT is no longer satisfied in every detail, the FDT continues to provide an excellent estimate of the climatic sensitivity of the model.

Bell, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Improved Representation of Atmospheric Dynamics in CMIP6 Models Removes Climate Sensitivity Dependence on Hadley Cell Climatological Extent

The persistent inter-model spread in the response of global mean surface temperature to increased CO. (known as the “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity”, or “ECS”) is a crucial problem across model generations. This work examines the influence of the models’ present-day atmospheric circulation climatologies, and the accompanying climatological cloud radiative effects, in explaining that spread. We analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and _nd that they simulate a more poleward, and thus more realistic, edge of the Hadley Circulation (HC) in the SouthernHemisphere than the CMIP5 models, although the climatological shortwave cloud radiative effects are similar in the two generations of models. A few CMIP5 models with extreme equatorward biases in the HC edge exhibited high ECS due to strong Southern midlatitude shortwave cloud radiative warming in response to climate change, suggesting an ECS dependence on HC position. We find that such constraint no longer holds for the CMIP6 models, due to absence of models with extreme HC climatologies. In spite of this, however, the CMIP6 models show an increased spread in ECS, with more models in the high ECS range. Additionally, an improved representation of the climatological jet dynamics does not lead to a new emergent constraint in the CMIP6 models either.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS1994

Obliquity-oblateness feedback: Are climatically sensitive values of obliquity dynamically unstable?

A new model is presented for feedback between rotational and climatic variations, operative on time scales of 10(exp 4) - 10(exp 7) years. Due to the combined effect of planetary perturbations to the Earth's orbit plane and luni-solar torques on the oblate figure of the Earth, the obliquity varies by approximately 1 deg on a 4 x 10(exp 4) year time scale. Associated changes in the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of incident solar radiation cause major glaciations. Mass transport from the oceans to the polar ice sheets during these glaciations can change the gravitational oblateness of the Earth by amounts approaching 1%. As the rate of spin axis precession is directly proportional to the oblateness, the climatically forced mass transport can by dynamically significant. A simple parameterization of this coupled orbital-rotational-climatic system suggests that there is a strong tendency for the system to evolve away from climatically sensitive values of the obliquity. This may explain the mid-Pleistocene transition from an obliquity dominated regime to the present regime in which most climatic variability is concentrated at longer (10(exp 5) year) periods.

Bills, Bruce G.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The effects of surface evaporation parameterizations on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

The effects of two different evaporation parameterizations on the sensitivity of simulated climate to solar constant variations are investigated by using a zonally averaged climate model. One parameterization is a nonlinear formulation in which the evaporation is nonlinearly proportional to the sensible heat flux, with the Bowen ratio determined by the predicted vertical temperature and humidity gradients near the earth's surface (model A). The other is the formulation of Saltzman (1968) with the evaporation linearly proportional to the sensible heat flux (model B). The computed climates of models A and B are in good agreement except for the energy partition between sensible and latent heat at the earth's surface. The difference in evaporation parameterizations causes a difference in the response of temperature lapse rate to solar constant variations and a difference in the sensitivity of longwave radiation to surface temperature which leads to a smaller sensitivity of surface temperature to solar constant variations in model A than in model B. The results of model A are qualitatively in agreement with those of the general circulation model calculations of Wetherald and Manabe (1975).

Chou, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS2020

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 1: Model Structure, Climatology, Variability and Climate Sensitivity

We introduce a new climate model (GISS E2.2) that has been specially optimized for the Middle Atmosphere, and whose output is being contributed to the CMIP6 archive. The top of the model is at a geopotential altitude of 89 km, and parameterizations of moist convection and various forms of gravity wave drag based on tropospheric processes are chosen specifically for this optimization. We first evaluate the model in its configuration as a coupled atmosphere-chemistry model with respect to its simulation of the mean state of the Middle Atmosphere, from the mesosphere down through the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere. Then we assess its use as a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model by exploring its mean ocean climatology. To evaluate its variability, we report on its simulation of the primary modes in the troposphere, stratosphere and ocean. Two climate change simulations are presented, the responses to instantaneous increases of 2xCO2 and 4xCO2, run with two different ocean models. Sensitivity studies are performed to illustrate the effect of parameterizations on the model results. We compare these results to the lower vertical resolution/top GISS Model E2.1, whose output has also been submitted to CMIP6. The different choices made for these models are explored. It is shown that important improvements in the circulation above and below the tropopause can be obtained when attention is paid to representation of Middle Atmosphere processes in climate model development.

D. Rind↗
NASA NTRS2011

Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Energy Balance: Relevance to Climate Sensitivity?

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of organization for tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, here we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged heat and moisture budget. One unresolved question concerns the degree to which observable variations in the "fast" processes (e.g. convection, radiative / turbulent fluxes) can inform our understanding of feedback mechanisms operable in the context of climate change. Our analysis use daily data from satellite observations, the Modern Era analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and other model integrations to address these questions: (i) How are tropospheric temperature variations related to that tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF), ice water path (IWP), and properties of warmer liquid clouds? (ii) What role does moisture transport play vis-a-vis ocean latent heat flux in enabling the evolution of deep convection to mediate PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007 GRL ) whereby a composite time series of various quantities over 60+ ISO events is built using tropical mean tropospheric temperature signal as a reference to which the variables are related at various lag times (from -30 to +30 days). The area of interest encompasses the global oceans between 20oN/S. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. The decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, is part of the response that constitutes a "discharge" / "recharge" mechanism that facilitates tropical heat balance maintenance on these time scales. However, water vapor and hydrologic scaling relationships for this mode of variability cast doubt on the utility of ISO variations as proxies for climate sensitivity response to external radiatively forced (e.g. greenhouse gas-induced) climate change.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A parameterization of the absorption in the 15 micron CO2 spectral region with application to climate sensitivity studies

A technique for quantifying the absorption that takes place in the 15 micron CO2 band in the atmosphere is developed as a function of the scaled CO2 content. A spectrally averaged transmission function is defined and a scaling approximation for the absorption coefficient is calculated, as is the width of the absorption band. An assessment is made of the accuracies of the parameterized atmospheric transmittance and cooling rate. The resulting radiation parameterization is applied in a climate sensitivity study. The model is concluded useful in examining atmospheres with a variable CO2 content, with the highest accuracies being available in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. CO2 doubling the earth's atmosphere is projected to cause a 20 percent warming in the surface temperatures and a 30 percent warming for the tripling of the CO2 content, provided the spectral range for CO2 absorption is extended from 580-760 to 540-800/cm.

Chou, M.-D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Lorius, C.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Differences between seasonal and mean annual energy balance model calculations of climate and climate sensitivity

The paper extends a simple Budyko-Sellers mean annual energy balance climate model with diffusive transport to include a seasonal cycle. In the model the latitudinal distribution of the zonal average surface temperature is represented by Legendre polynomials and its time-dependence by a Fourier sine-cosine series, and it has three parameters adjusted so that the observed amplitudes of the Northern Hemisphere zonal mean surface temperature are recovered. The seasonal model is used to reveal how the annual mean climate and the sensitivity to changes in incident radiation differ from the predictions obtained with the corresponding mean annual model. The distribution of the incident solar radiation in the models is shown to be insensitive to changes in the eccentricity and the longitude of perihelion and sensitive only to changes in the obliquity of the earth, and for past orbital changes both the seasonal and the mean annual model fail to produce glacial advances of the magnitude that are thought to have occurred.

North, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Climate Fluctuations and Climate Sensitivity

Some evidence is presented that the main part of the atmospheric climate system is such that small forcings in the heat balance lead to linear responses in the surface temperature field. By examining first a noise forced energy-balance climate model and then comparing it with a long run of a highly symmetrical general circulation model, one finds a remarkable connection between spatial autocorrelation statistics and the thermal influence function for a point heat source. These findings are brought together to indicate that this particular climatological field may be largely governed by linear processes.

North, Gerald R.↗