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DOE OSTI2024

A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention

A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Taming the Wild West: Assessing Impacts-Relevant Climate Data Products (Abbreviated Report)

Impacts-relevant Earth system data refers to observational and ESM data that are downscaled, debiased, validated, and provisioned for use by decision-makers. Impacts-relevant Earth system data is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning across a variety of regions and sectors. A vast number of these data products have emerged in recent years, which has led to confusion among stakeholders and scientists as to the best product to use. With no standard evaluation protocol available for these products, the decision on which product to use was sometimes made because it was pragmatic rather than the best product to use. This project sought to develop foundational capabilities around impacts-relevant data products that would support more informed selection and application of these products. This work has been immensely successful, driving several academic publications and supported the development of a community of practice around impacts-relevant data products. Over the project’s three years we have addressed six tasks: First, the development of standard evaluation metrics for impacts-relevant climate data; second, the development of a novel suite of atmospheric river metrics; third, the development of novel metrics for precipitation feature analysis; fourth, the development of novel metrics for assessing co-variances between temperature and precipitation; fifth, the development of a dashboard for interactive examination of impacts-relevant climate data; and sixth, the establishment of a community of practice around impacts-relevant climate data that will continue beyond the conclusion of this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Expanding the Capabilities of the Climate Futures Impact Tool for the Next Generation of Climate Data

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Crockett, Joseph Lafayette [Sandia National Labora↗

DOE OSTI2025

A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems

The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings indicate that the negative effects of climate mitigation on global hunger could be partially offset by the ozone reduction impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Taming the Wild West: Assessing Impacts-Relevant Climate Data Products (Final Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development

Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.

climate impacts↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global warming potential estimates of mass timber constructions beyond the first life: A dynamic radiative forcing modeling approach

In the face of a warming planet, steps must be taken to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) associated with our building industry, which is a significant contributor to global emissions. Large, prefabricated wood elements such as mass timber panels (MTP) have great potential to achieve these reductions as they help displace high-embodied‑carbon materials like concrete and steel. Furthermore, storing the wood's biogenic carbon in buildings benefits the climate because it delays the eventual release of the carbon into the atmosphere. While these climate impacts have been assessed for the construction phase of mass timber buildings, relatively few life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have evaluated the climate impacts for the buildings' end-of-life (EOL) phase. This research estimates the climate impacts of four EOL scenarios for MTP: reusing as MTP, recycling into particleboard, incinerating, and landfilling. Using dynamic radiative forcing modeling and factoring in temporal GHG emissions and biogenic carbon storage, the global warming potential impacts are calculated for construction, deconstruction, and EOL processing of hybrid mass timber buildings in the U.S. Pacific Northwest for 160 years (GWP 160 ). The 160-year temporal scale used in this paper is an arbitrary scale, with the first 80 years being the assumed life of the building, followed by a series of reuse, recycle, or disposal scenarios over the second 80 years of that temporal scale. Of the four EOL scenarios considered in this paper, the ‘reuse’ scenario has the lowest net GWP 160 impact (calculated by summing the GWP 160 and carbon storage benefits, i.e., GWP$^{bioCS}_{160}$ ), emerging as a climate-preferred scenario, followed by ‘landfill’, ‘incinerate’, and ‘recycle’ scenarios. The lower net GWP 160 impact associated with the reuse scenario is due to the low fossil carbon emissions during EOL processing, as well as the biogenic carbon storage benefits. The results of this study also highlight the importance of efficient reuse and recycling strategies for wood in MTP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation Potential of Solar and Wind Energy Systems in India

Low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar are essential for decarbonizing the electricity sector. In addition, the cost of electricity generated from these sources has plummeted over the last decade. Therefore, these energy sources are poised to take a significant share of the total installed capacity soon. However, they are susceptible to the impacts of climate change as their generation potential depends on the weather conditions. Estimating the installed capacity requirements of solar and wind energy to decarbonize the power sector without accounting for these possible changes in generation potential could lead to missing out on the set climate goals and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar energy systems in India for two future periods, 2050 and 2070, under two climate scenarios or Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP): SSP245 and SSP585. Almost all regions show a decrease, and most regions show a significant decline (>5%) in the generation potential of solar Photovoltaic (PV) as compared to 2010 levels under both climate scenarios and future periods. The changes in the generation potential of wind energy are more significant (>10%), and the majority of regions show a decline in generation potential. Southwestern and central regions show an increase in wind generation potential for 2070 as compared to 2050 levels under the SSP245 scenario and the SSP585 scenario, respectively.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Climate Change Effects of Bioenergy and BECCS: Critical Considerations and Guidance on Methodology

Bioenergy is a critical element in many national and international climate change mitigation efforts, including as a carbon dioxide removal strategy combined with the capture and durable geological storage of flue gas emissions (BECCS). However, divergent results on the effectiveness of bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure are reported in the scientific literature. Climate impacts of bioenergy depend on case-specific factors, primarily biophysical features of the biomass production system, and the design and efficiency of conversion and capture processes. Estimates of climate impacts are also strongly affected by methodological choices and assumptions, and much of the divergence between studies derives from differences in the assumed alternate use of the land or feedstock, the alternate energy source and the system boundaries applied. We present a methodology to support robust estimates of the climate change effects of bioenergy systems, updating the standard methodology developed by the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Program on Bioenergy. We provide guidance on the key choices including the reference land use and energy system that bioenergy is assumed to displace, spatial and temporal system boundaries, co-product handling, climate forcers considered, metrics applied and time horizon of impact assessment. Researchers should consider the whole bioenergy system including all life cycle stages, and choose system boundaries, reference systems and treatment of co-products that are consistent with the intended application of the results. The assessment should be normalised to a functional unit that can be compared with other systems delivering an equivalent quantity of the same function. All significant climate forcers should be included, and climate effects should be quantified using appropriate impact assessment methods that distinguish the impact of time. Consistency in methodology and interpretation will facilitate comparison between studies of different bioenergy systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment

Thermokarst lakes cause abrupt and sustained permafrost degradation and have the potential to release large quantities of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. Despite concerns about how lakes will affect the permafrost carbon feedback, the magnitude of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from deep permafrost soils remains poorly understood. Here we incubated a very deep sediment core (20 m) to constrain the potential productivity of thawed Yedoma and underlying Quaternary sand and gravel deposits. Through radiocarbon dating, sediment incubations and sediment facies classifications, we show that extensive permafrost thaw can occur beneath lakes on timescales of decades to centuries. Although it has been assumed that shallow, aerobic carbon dioxide production will dominate the climate impact of permafrost thaw, we found that anaerobic carbon dioxide and methane production from deep sediments was commensurate with aerobic production on a per gram carbon basis, and had double the global warming potential at warmer temperatures. Carbon release from deep Arctic sediments may thus have a more substantial impact on a changing climate than currently anticipated. These environments are presently overlooked in estimates of the permafrost carbon feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗