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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America

Over the last two decades, southwestern North America (SWNA) has been in the grip of one of the most severe droughts of the last 1,200 years, with one third to nearly one half of its severity attributable to climate change. We analyze how the risk of extreme soil moisture droughts in SWNA, analogous to the most severe 21-year (≥ in magnitude to 2000–2020) and single-year (≥ in magnitude to 2002) events of the last several decades, changes in projections from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By the end of the 21st century, SWNA experiences robust (R ≥ 0.80) soil moisture drying and substantial increases in extreme single-year drought risk that scale strongly with warming, spanning an 8%–26% probability of occurrence across +2–4 K. Notably, our results show that 21-year droughts analogous to 2000–2020 are up to 5 times more likely than extreme single-year droughts under all levels of warming (≈50%). These high levels of 21-year drought risk are largely invariant across scenarios because of large spring precipitation declines in half the models, shifting SWNA into a drier mean state. Despite projections of this sweeping and ostensibly inevitable increase in 21-year drought risk, climate mitigation reduces their severity by reducing the magnitude of extreme single-year droughts during these events. Our results emphasize both the importance of preparing SWNA for imminent increases in persistent drought events and constraining projected precipitation uncertainty to better resolve future long-term drought risk.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2018

Distinct Influences of Land Cover and Land Management on Seasonal Climate

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change is primarily represented in climate model simulations through prescribed transitions from natural vegetation to cropland or pasture. However, recent studies have demonstrated that land management practices, especially irrigation, have distinct climate impacts. Here we disentangle the seasonal climate impacts of land cover change and irrigation across areas of high agricultural intensity using climate simulations with three different land surface scenarios: (1) natural vegetation cover/no irrigation, (2) year 2000 crop cover/no irrigation, and (3) year 2000 crop cover and irrigation rates. We find that irrigation substantially amplifies land cover‐induced climate impacts but has opposing effects across certain regions. Irrigation mostly causes surface cooling, which substantially amplifies land cover change‐induced cooling in most regions except over Central, West, and South Asia, where it reverses land cover change‐induced warming. Despite increases in net surface radiation in some regions, this cooling is associated with enhancement of latent relative to sensible heat fluxes by irrigation. Similarly, irrigation substantially enhances the wetting influence of land cover change over several regions including West Asia and the Mediterranean. The most notable contrasting impacts of these forcings on precipitation occur over South Asia, where irrigation offsets the wetting influence of land cover during the monsoon season. Differential changes in regional circulations and moist static energy induced by these forcings contribute to their precipitation impacts and are associated with differential changes in surface and tropospheric temperature gradients and moisture availability. These results emphasize the importance of including irrigation forcing to evaluate the combined impacts of land surface changes for attributing historical climatic changes and managing future impacts.

Singh, Deepti↗
NASA NTRS2022

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.

decadal climate↗
NASA NTRS2023

A 1D Model for Nucleation of Ice From Aerosol Particles: An Application to a Mixed-Phase Arctic Stratus Cloud Layer

Mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) have been identified as significant contributors to uncertainties in climate projections, attributable to model representation of processes controlling the formation and loss of supercooled water droplets and ice particles from the atmosphere. Arctic MPCs are commonly widespread and long-lived, with sustained ice crystal formation processes that challenge current understanding. This study examines the ice-nucleating particle (INP) reservoir dynamics governing immersion-mode heterogeneous freezing in an observed case of Arctic MPCs using a simplified 1D aerosol-cloud model. The model setup includes prescribed dynamical forcings and thermodynamic profiles, and represents INPs as multicomponent and polydisperse particle size distributions. Diagnostic and prognostic approaches to immersion freezing parameterization are compared, including time-independent (singular) number- and surface area-based descriptions and a time-dependent description following classical nucleation theory (CNT). The choice of freezing parameterization defines the size of the INP reservoir. The CNT-based description yields an orders of magnitude larger INP reservoir than the singular parameterizations, which is the dominant factor for sustained ice crystal formation. The efficiency of the freezing process and cloud cooling are of secondary importance. A diagnostic treatment neglecting INP loss is only accurate when the INP reservoir size is large and INP depletion weak. Since a larger INP reservoir sustains ice crystal formation substantially longer, and ice water path scales with ice crystal concentrations for the conditions considered, resolving the source of differences in INP reservoir dynamics due to model implementation is a high priority for advancing climate model physics.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2013

Onboard Radar Processor Development for Disaster Response

Natural hazards often result in significant loss of human lives, economic assets and productivity as well as significant damage to the ecosystem. Scientists have reported more frequent and intense natural disasters in recent years, which may well be attributed to climate change. Many of the disaster response efforts were hampered by lack of up-to-date knowledge of the state of the affected areas because damaged infrastructure rendered the areas inaccessible. Radar remote sensing is playing an increasingly critical role in providing timely information to disaster response agencies due to the increasing fidelity and availability of geospatial information products.

VV (vertical transmit and vertical receive)↗
NASA NTRS2020

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, F(M1)(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, F(M2)(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. F(M2)(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Human influence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monitoring and Assessing Heat Vulnerability to Identify Locations for Heat Mitigation Efforts in Sarasota, Florida

Located in the coastal subtropical region, Florida’s Sarasota County receives plenty of sunlight for more than half of the year. However, the ongoing rise in summer temperatures attributed to climate change poses an increasing vulnerability to extreme heat for the residents. Moreover, the area's high relative humidity exacerbates the discomfort of high temperatures, thereby intensifying the severity of heat events and elevating the risks of heat-related illnesses. Our collaborations with Sarasota County Sustainability underscore shared concerns about the impact of urban heat island (UHI) on the community. We utilized Earth observation data from NASA Landsat 8 and Landsat 9’s Thermal Infrared Sensors (TIRS) and the International Space Station’s Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) to model UHI effects within the county during the summer from 2019 to 2023. By implementing the open-source Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Cooling software model, ArcGIS ModelBuilder, and principal component analysis, we identified the land surface temperature variance within the county and areas that are least capable of mitigating the effects of UHI. In addition, we use socioeconomic and demographic data as indicators to quantify vulnerability at the census tract level. The results revealed that heat intensity varies significantly across Sarasota County, with the highest temperatures being in the more developed western part of the region. We pinpointed that at least three vulnerable communities reside in high-heat regions: North Sarasota, Venice, and North Port. These areas demonstrate a confluence between socioeconomic sensitivity and environmental hazard, indicating a high priority in future heat mitigation efforts.

Theresia Phoa↗
NASA NTRS2013

Global Premature Mortality Due to Anthropogenic Outdoor Air Pollution and the Contribution of Past Climate Change

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr (exp -1) due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.

human health↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reference Intercalibration for the Climate Observing System

Reference Intercalibration is critical in supporting the construction of climate data records, which, given their necessary longevity, must consist of measurements from multiple instruments. Reference intercalibration enables placing multiple instruments on the same radiometric scale, reducing calibration-based biases in climate data records. Measurements that have characteristics of a climate benchmark make excellent in-orbit intercalibration references. Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder (CPF) consists of a reflected solar (RS) spectrometer (350-2300 nm) that will take hyperspectral Earth reflectance measurements with unprecedented SI-traceable accuracy (0.3%, 1-sigma) from the International Space Station (ISS). CPF measurements will have several characteristics of climate benchmark measurements and will demonstrate its capability as a rigorous in-orbit intercalibration reference with Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The methodologies that have been developed to support CPF-CERES and CPF-VIIRS intercalibration can readily be extended to other Low Earth Orbit and Geostationary instrument targets. With its highly accurate hyperspectral observations, CPF measurements can also be used to improve the characterization of targets widely used for satellite instrument vicarious calibration including Earth land surface pseudo-invariant calibration sites, deep convective clouds, and the Moon. We will discuss the importance of climate benchmark measurement attributes for intercalibration and considerations for the associated intercalibration data analysis to support building and maintaining climate data records.

Yolanda Shea↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Managing Traffic on the Three-Way Street: Steps Toward Closing the Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Gap

Understanding changes in the radiative forcing of climate is critical for any effort to attribute, mitigate, or predict climate change. Although greenhouse gases (GHGs) contribute most of the radiative forcing, uncertainty in the climate forcing by airborne particles (aerosols) dominates the uncertainty in forcing changes overall. Yet, aerosol forcing has remained virtually undiminished for more than 20 years despite considerable advances in most of the key contributing elements. Satellite and suborbital measurements, as well as modeling, each have essential roles to play in reducing the uncertainty in the aerosol forcing of climate. This presentation will begin by briefly covering the reasons why aerosols are important for climate study, and will then summarize what we are learning about aerosols from current satellite remote-sensing work, and allude to the roles of suborbital measurements and models. Emphasis will be placed on nascent efforts to link satellite data with models, the need to continue as planned current programs supporting advanced, global-scale satellite and surface-based aerosol and precursor gas observations, climate modeling, as well as intensive field campaigns aimed at characterizing the underlying physical and chemical processes involved. The talk will conclude by highlighting new efforts needed to obtain systematic in situ measurements of aerosol microphysical and chemical properties, along with a greater research focus on integrating the unique contributions of measurements and modeling toward reducing the aerosol climate forcing uncertainty gap.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2013

Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(−2) DU(−1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(−2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1983

Experimental philosophy leading to a small scale digital data base of the conterminous United States for designing experiments with remotely sensed data

Research using satellite remotely sensed data, even within any single scientific discipline, often lacked a unifying principle or strategy with which to plan or integrate studies conducted over an area so large that exhaustive examination is infeasible, e.g., the U.S.A. However, such a series of studies would seem to be at the heart of what makes satellite remote sensing unique, that is the ability to select for study from among remotely sensed data sets distributed widely over the U.S., over time, where the resources do not exist to examine all of them. Using this philosophical underpinning and the concept of a unifying principle, an operational procedure for developing a sampling strategy and formal testable hypotheses was constructed. The procedure is applicable across disciplines, when the investigator restates the research question in symbolic form, i.e., quantifies it. The procedure is set within the statistical framework of general linear models. The dependent variable is any arbitrary function of remotely sensed data and the independent variables are values or levels of factors which represent regional climatic conditions and/or properties of the Earth's surface. These factors are operationally defined as maps from the U.S. National Atlas (U.S.G.S., 1970). Eighty-five maps from the National Atlas, representing climatic and surface attributes, were automated by point counting at an effective resolution of one observation every 17.6 km (11 miles) yielding 22,505 observations per map. The maps were registered to one another in a two step procedure producing a coarse, then fine scale registration. After registration, the maps were iteratively checked for errors using manual and automated procedures. The error free maps were annotated with identification and legend information and then stored as card images, one map to a file. A sampling design will be accomplished through a regionalization analysis of the National Atlas data base (presently being conducted). From this analysis a map of homogeneous regions of the U.S.A. will be created and samples (LANDSAT scenes) assigned by region.

Labovitz, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Plant Responses to Increased UV-B Radiation: A Research Project

Ozone decrease implies more ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. Increased UV-B radiation triggers responses by living organisms. Despite the large potential impacts on vegetation, little is known about UV-B effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Long-term ecological studies are needed to quantify the effects of increased UV radiation on terrestrial ecosystems, asses the risks, and produce reliable data for prediction. Screening pigments are part of one of the protective mechanism in plants. Higher concentrations of screening pigments in leaves may be interpreted as a response to increased UV radiation. If the screening effect is not sufficient, important molecules will be disturbed by incoming radiation. Thus, genetics, photosynthesis, growth, plant and leaf shape and size, and pollen grains may be affected. This will have an impact on ecosystem dynamics, structure and productivity. It is necessary to monitor selected terrestrial ecosystems to permit detection and interpretation of changes attributable to global climate change and depleted ozone shield. The objectives of this project are: (1) To identify and measure indicators of the effects of increased solar UV-B radiation on terrestrial plants; (2) to select indicators with the greatest responses to UV-B exposure; (3) to test, adapt or create ecosystem models that use the information gathered by this project for prediction and to enhance our understanding of the effects of increased UV-B radiation on terrestrial ecosystems. As a first step to achieve these objectives we propose a three-year study of forest and steppe vegetation on the North slope of the Brooks Range (within the Arctic circle, in Alaska), in the Saguaro National Monument (near Tucson, Arizona) and in the forests and steppes of Patagonia (Argentina). We selected (1) vegetation north of the Polar Circle because at 70N there is 8% risk of plant damage due to increased UV-B radiation; (2) the foothills of Catalina Mountains because there is anecdotal evidence of plant damage on the saguaros that has been linked to increased UV radiation, and (3) the forests of Nothofagus spp. and the steppe of Patagonia where the risk of plant damage at 35S is 5% and increases to as much as 15% at 55S due to increased UV-B radiation. Measurements of UV-B radiation impinging on the surface at 55S largely exceed the predicted UV-B radiation values at 50 latitude and 0% ozone depletion. Preliminary HPLC analyses of UV-B absorbing compounds in Nothofagus antartica, N. pumilio, N. betuloides and Rumex sp. in natural conditions show species-specific patterns. The spectrum of N. antartica grown at 38S differs significantly from that of N. antartica in natural conditions in Ushuaia (55S). These results suggest that the selected main area (Patagonia) is appropriate for assessing the problem and its magnitude and that Nothofagus is appropriate for our study.

DAntoni, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗
NASA NTRS2019

Hurricane Stalling Along the North American Coast and Implications for Rainfall

The average speed of tropical cyclone (TC) translation has slowed since the mid 20th century. Here we report that North Atlantic (NA) TCs have become increasingly likely to "stall" near the coast, spending many hours in confined regions. The stalling is driven not only by slower translation, but also by an increase in abrupt changes of direction. We compute residence-time distributions for TCs in confined coastal regions, and find that the tails of these distributions have increased significantly. We also show that TCs stalling over a region result in more rain on the region. Together, increased stalling and increased rain during stalls imply increased coastal rainfall from TCs, other factors equal. Although the data are sparse, we do in fact find a significant positive trend in coastal annual-mean rainfall 1948-2017 from TCs that stall, and we verify that this is due to increased stalling frequency. We make no attribution to anthropogenic climate forcing for the stalling or rainfall; the trends could be due to low frequency natural variability. Regardless of the cause, the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations.

tropical cyclone tracks↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of the Biomass Productivity Decline in the Lower Mekong Basin

This study aimed to delineate the geographic hotspots of negative trends in biomass productivity in the Lower Mekong Basin countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand) and identify correlated regional environmental and anthropogenic factors. A long-term time-series (1982–2015) of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index at a resolution of approximately 9.16 km x 9.16 km was used to specify the areas with significant decline or increase in productivity. The relationships between vegetation changes and land attributes, such as climate, population density, soil/terrain conditions, and land-cover types, were examined. Rainfall time-series maps were used to identify areas that might have been affected by land degradation from those correlated with rainfall. Most of the detected potentially degraded areas were found in Cambodia, the Northwest and the Highland of Vietnam, the Northern Mountains of Thailand and Laos, and the mountainous border between Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. About 15% of the total land area of these four countries experienced a reduction in biomass productivity during the 34-year study period. The map of hotspots of changes in productivity can be used to direct further studies, including those at finer spatial resolution that may support policy makers and researchers in targeting the strategies for combating land degradation.

land degradation↗
NASA NTRS2022

Rapid Intensification of the Emerging Southwestern North American Megadrought in 2020–2021

A previous reconstruction back to 800 ce indicated that the 2000–2018 soil moisture deficit in southwestern North America was exceeded during one megadrought in the late-1500s. Here, we show that after exceptional drought severity in 2021, ~19% of which is attributable to anthropogenic climate trends, 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800. This drought will very likely persist through 2022, matching the duration of the late-1500s megadrought.

Hydrology↗