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DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced methanol production from photothermal CO 2 reduction via multilevel interface design

Photothermal CO 2 hydrogenation is a promising route to produce methanol as a sustainable liquid solar fuel. However, most existing catalysts require a combination of solar irradiation and additional heat input to achieve a satisfactory reaction rate. For the few that can be driven solely by light, their reaction rates are one order of magnitude lower. We develop a photothermal catalyst with multilevel interfaces that achieves improved methanol production from photothermal CO 2 hydrogenation without external heat. The catalyst features a layered structure comprising Cu/ZnO/Al 2 O 3 (CZA) covered by oxidized carbon black (oCB), where the oCB/CZA interface promotes efficient heat generation and transfer, and the Cu/oxide interface contributes to high catalytic activity. Under a mild pressure of 8 bar, our oCB/CZA catalyst shows a methanol selectivity of 64.7% with a superior production rate of 4.91 mmol·g cza −1 ·h −1 , at least one order of magnitude higher than other photothermal catalysts solely driven by light. This work demonstrates a photothermal catalyst design strategy for liquid solar fuel production.

CO2 hydrogenation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regulating catalyst and ionomer interactions to promote oxygen transport in fuel cells

The cost of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) has been a major impediment to their widespread commercialization. Reducing platinum (Pt) usage in PEMFC represents an essential step in lowering the cost. However, decreasing Pt loading in the cathode catalyst layer (CCL) often leads to a significant increase in the local oxygen transport resistance (R Local ), which not only slows the oxygen reduction reaction but also causes a higher polarization overpotential. The poisoning of Pt by perfluorosulfonic acid ionomers also becomes more predominant at low Pt loadings. Therefore, regulating catalyst and ionomer interactions by optimizing their interface in the CCL is crucial to improving PEMFC performance. Here, in this review, the strategies of improving oxygen transport by controlling Pt-ionomer interactions and interfaces through catalyst design, ionomer structure, and incorporation of additives are summarized. Finally, perspectives on future optimization of catalyst and ionomer interactions are proposed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heterogeneous catalysis: Optimal performance at a phase boundary?

Most of the industrially used heterogeneous catalysts have been discovered by trial and error, and despite decades of experience, the discovery of new catalysts continues to be extremely challenging. The drive to uncover guiding principles in catalyst design is more present than ever. We share a series of observations indicating that optimal catalysts typically function at characteristic phase boundaries (e.g., abrupt changes in adsorbate coverage, catalyst structure, etc.) accessed in the reaction conditions. The catalyst exploits the associated instability—the desire to exist in multiple states simultaneously—as a driving force for chemical transformations. In other words, phase boundaries are good places to start the catalyst search, and indeed, we should focus on at least two phases at once rather than just one. Here, we substantiate this claim with several studies that combine statistical operando modeling and experiments. Transpiring from these observations is a hitherto unrecognized vector in catalyst discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review—In Situ X-ray and Infrared Spectroscopic Studies of Electrochemical Systems

Despite of intense research and a wealth of data, the phenomena occurring during electrocatalysis are still a major obstacle in many chemical processes. Molecular analysis of the electrode/electrolyte interface is needed to correctly describe the reaction through identifying the species involved, their interaction with the environment and kinetics in situ, i.e. while the reaction is taking place. That can be done by coupling the electrochemical system with complementary non-electrochemical techniques. Particularly revealing are in situ X-ray spectroscopic techniques to analyze the electrode itself, providing the information on the changes in the catalyst during the reaction. The synergy of the traditional electrochemical techniques with the complementary spectroscopic methodologies offer understanding of the electrode/electrolyte interface above and beyond traditional experimental mainframe. Here we demonstrate how in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), in situ infrared reflection/absorption spectroscopy (IRRAS), and traditional voltammetric studies can increase our understanding of electrochemical processes during oxidation of ethanol. The results show the pronounced role of electrode surface in determining reaction kineticks and revealed the selectivity of the catalyst to complete oxidation pathway. They further provide understanding of the parameters that enhance its oxidation for future designing catalysts for alcohol oxidation fuel cells.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Deep Learning for Advancing Field-Enhanced Catalysis

This DOE Early Career project developed a physics-informed, interpretable AI-and-modeling framework to understand and exploit electric-field effects in heterogeneous catalysis, with ammonia cracking and synthesis as a representative pathway. The team built and validated methods to map local electric fields on metal surfaces and nanoparticles, showing that low-coordination features (tips/edges/corners) can concentrate fields by several-fold relative to flat facets. Using DFT-generated datasets, the project created physics-guided machine learning models that rapidly predict local electric fields and field-dependent adsorption energetics with near-DFT accuracy while reducing computational cost by orders of magnitude. These predictions were integrated with microkinetic modeling to quantify how field-dipole interactions reshape reaction energetics and mechanisms, enabling large increases in predicted catalytic rates and substantial reductions in operating temperature under favorable field conditions. To accelerate discovery of earth-abundant catalysts, the project combined interpretable ML screening (with electronic-structure descriptors identified as key drivers) with a generative inverse-design workflow based on diffusion models and physics constraints. The resulting closed-loop approach, linking simulation, mechanistic modeling, and AI, provides reusable tools and datasets for designing catalysts and operating conditions in field-enhanced catalysis, with broad relevance to electrostatic catalysis, plasma catalysis, electrocatalysis, and other energy-related chemical transformations.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent advances in rational design of defect-engineered photocatalysts toward sustainable NH 3 synthesis as H 2 carrier: From fundamental and development to machine-learning

In this study, we provide a detailed overview of the fundamental mechanisms underpinning photocatalytic N 2 reduction. We also discuss advances in catalyst design for the synthesis of NH 3 . Particular emphasis is placed on the role of surface defect engineering, which includes the creation of surface defects to enhance the performance of semiconducting photocatalysts for efficient N 2 reduction. In addition, the application of a machine learning-based computational modeling approach is discussed as an important driving force for predicting and regulating NH 3 synthesis efficiency based on catalyst features and reaction conditions. Finally, existing challenges and future perspectives for improving the performance of defect-engineered photocatalysts are outlined to contribute to the ongoing discourse on sustainable ammonia generation. This review aims to clarify recent progress in the rational design of defect-containing photocatalysts for the synthesis of NH 3 and encourages innovative approaches to catalyst optimization rather than solely focusing on new materials.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Facet-Dependent Hydrogen Evolution Reaction on M 2 P (M = Ni, Co, Fe) Single Crystals

Transition-metal phosphides (MPs) are promising earth-abundant catalysts for hydrogen evolution reactions (HERs) due to their remarkable activity and stability. To further improve their properties, facet control is a key strategy. The growth of shape-selected nanoparticles may substantially enhance electrocatalytic activity, but this approach requires fundamental studies of facet-specific catalytic properties. There are only a few reports on the facet effects of MPs, which leads to a limited understanding of the activity of each facet and hampers catalyst design. Here, in this study, we grew large hexagonal-prism-shaped single crystals of three representative M 2 P (M = Ni, Co, and Fe) catalysts using metal flux routes. Two facets of M 2 P single crystals were tested to study facet-dependent HER activities, and it was consistently demonstrated that for all M 2 P crystals, a tip facet [(0001) for Ni 2 P/Fe 2 P and (010) for Co 2 P] had a higher activity than the side facet [(101̅0) for Ni 2 P/Fe 2 P and (100) for Co 2 P]. HER activity between the same facet elucidated the activity ordered between different transition metals as Fe 2 P > Co 2 P > Ni 2 P under low-potential regions. At high applied potentials, this trend is reversed due to the differences in Tafel slopes, with Ni 2 P becoming the most active catalyst, such that the activity of the (0001) facet of Ni 2 P approaches that of Pt. The calculated surface density of states (DOS) of each facet and its local curvature were found to be a useful descriptor for the activity trends among different transition metals of the same facets.

Co2P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deactivation of Mo/H-ZSM-5 in Microwave-Assisted and Thermal-Driven Methane Dehydroaromatization

A better understanding of catalyst deactivation is needed to improve catalyst design and performance in microwave-enhanced methane dehydroaromatization (MDA). Here, this study investigates the deactivation of a molybdenum supported H-ZSM-5 zeolite (Mo/H-ZSM-5) catalyst in MDA under microwave-heated conditions, comparing its performance to that of the same catalyst under conventional heating. While the microwave-assisted (MW) process achieved higher benzene yields, the catalyst experienced faster deactivation due to the selective and rapid deposition of coke within the pores of the zeolite, as confirmed through Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET), X-ray diffraction (XRD), ammonia-temperature programmed desorption (NH 3 -TPD), thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), temperature programmed oxidation (TPO), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analyses. The quantification of total coke content via TGA/TPO and surface carbon (XPS) revealed that nearly twice as much coke was deposited on the catalyst under MW conditions compared to that on the conventionally heated material, and the coke exhibited a more conductive and graphitic nature. The accelerated deactivation rates were attributed to the formation of hot spots in the MW system, leading to enhanced coupling with coke formed in situ during the reaction and resulting in increased Mo reduction. Observations indicated that the CO activation used to carburize the catalyst prior to the reaction is not advantageous in the MW heating environment. The presence of large amounts of Mo oxides at elevated temperatures (through hot spots) exposed to methane leads to instability under the reaction conditions. Optimizing the activation environment and improvement of the Mo dispersion within the pores are potential strategies to improve catalyst stability.

Mo/H-ZSM-5 zeolite↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of Ternary Transition Metal Oxide Catalysts for Oxygen Evolution Reaction

Electrochemical water splitting, a promising method for green hydrogen production, is currently hindered by the high cost of precious-group metal (PGM)-based catalysts for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). This study addresses this challenge by advancing the development of catalysts for OER, focusing on the development of high-performance PGM-free catalysts using nickel-iron-cobalt (NiFeCo)-based aerogels. The catalysts were synthesized via a sol-gel method and critical point drying to achieve a highly porous structure with an exceptionally high surface area. The designed catalyst structure provides an ideal platform for maximizing catalytic active sites and enhancing mass transport kinetics. Co has been systematically incorporated into the current PGM-free state-of-the-art, NiFeOx catalyst, and the metal ratios have been optimized. In addition to the experimental studies, density functional theory calculations were performed to study the material’s properties of this ternary catalyst and the effect of Co addition on enhancing OER catalysis.

Mizrahi, Michal [Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, I↗

DOE OSTI2026

Base-Free Catalytic Transfer Hydrogenation of Alkyl Formates and Organic Esters at Mild Temperature

The pincer-ligated ruthenium complex ( iPr PN H P)Ru(CO)H 2 ( iPr PN H P = ( i Pr 2 PC 2 H 4 ) 2 NH) is an active catalyst for the transfer hydrogenation of alkyl formates (HCO 2 R) and organic esters (RCO 2 R′) to the corresponding alcohols under base-free reaction conditions at mild temperatures. Specifically, a range of alkyl formate esters were reduced to MeOH and the corresponding alcohols in high yields using ( iPr PN H P)Ru(CO)H 2 as the catalyst and isopropanol ( i PrOH) as the hydrogen donor at 30 °C. The first step in the process is the metal-catalyzed transesterification of the alkyl formate with i PrOH to generate isopropyl formate, which is then reduced. The use of i PrOH as the hydrogen donor is crucial. ( iPr PN H P)Ru(CO)H 2 can also catalyze the transfer hydrogenation of a broad range of organic esters, including cyclic, acyclic, heteroatom-substituted, and long-chain bio-derived esters, to the corresponding alcohols in good yields using ethanol (EtOH) as the hydrogen donor at 55 °C. Computational studies were used to elucidate the proposed pathway for alkyl formate reduction and the underlying reasons why i PrOH is the most effective hydrogen donor for alkyl formate reduction, while EtOH is optimal for organic ester reduction. Overall, this work describes a highly active catalyst for alkyl formate and organic ester transfer hydrogenation and provides mechanistic insight into the factors responsible for the strong catalytic performance. Finally, these findings will be valuable for designing catalysts for both transfer hydrogenation and related reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A dual promotional effect of doping tantalum (Ta) in atomically dispersed Ru/CeO 2 catalyst toward CO 2 methanation: Enhanced associative adsorption of CO 2 and activation of H 2

Precisely controlling the product selectivity in CO 2 hydrogenation through rational catalyst design presents a promising approach to mitigate environmental and energy-related challenges, though it remains a significant scientific hurdle. Herein, the CH 4 selectivity of 0.5 wt% Ru loaded catalysts at 250 °C was effectively shifted from approximately 35 % to 100 % through the incorporation of Ta dopant into the CeO 2 support. The EXAFS spectra in conjunction with CO DRIFTS experiment indicated the presence of atomically dispersed Ru particles anchored on the Ta-doped CeO 2 surface. A higher oxidized CeO 2 surface was evidenced in the presence of Ta dopant. The presence of Ta dopant also improved the dispersion of Ru species and their interaction with the support. Most importantly, the Ru/Ta-CeO 2 catalyst exhibited a pronounced capacity for associative CO 2 -adsorption under atmospheric pressure at 50 °C. An improved H 2 activation was also observed under CO 2 hydrogenation conditions. This novel finding of the dual promotional effect of Ta carries a significant impact in the field of CO 2 capture and utilization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Methanol Partial Oxidation on Cu(111) and PtCu(111) Single-Atom Alloy Surfaces: Effect of Surface Oxygen Coverage on Selectivity

The selective oxidation of methanol to formaldehyde on Cu surfaces is an important and well-studied reaction. However, a systematic analysis of product selectivity as a function of oxygen coverage on Cu(111) and Cu-based single-atom alloys (SAAs) has not been previously reported. In this work, we present a comprehensive investigation of deuterated methanol (CD 3 OH) partial oxidation on Cu(111) and 1% PtCu(111) SAA surfaces as a function of preadsorbed oxygen coverage. Temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) reveal that isolated Pt atoms inhibit the initial surface oxidation of Cu(111) under low oxygen exposures. Despite this difference in oxidation kinetics, the product selectivity remains largely unaffected: on both Cu(111) and PtCu(111), formaldehyde (CD 2 O) is the predominant partial oxidation product over a broad range of oxygen coverages. The selectivity toward formaldehyde peaks at intermediate oxygen coverages (∼0.3 monolayers, ML), indicating the existence of an optimal oxygen loading for partial oxidation. Notably, the similar product selectivities on Cu(111) and PtCu(111) over a range of surface oxygen coverage indicate that Pt single atoms do not significantly alter the reaction pathway or shift the optimal oxygen coverage for formaldehyde formation. Control experiments confirm that Cu(111) is unreactive toward methanol in the absence of oxygen, while PtCu(111) surfaces produce a small amount of formaldehyde even when oxygen is not preadsorbed, indicating that isolated Pt atoms facilitate O−H activation at below 150 K, leading to H 2 desorption, followed by C−D activation at higher temperatures (∼350 K). Density functional theory (DFT)-based calculations show that Pt atoms increase the O 2 dissociation barrier relative to Cu(111), consistent with the observed inhibition of oxidation at low exposures. Overall, this work provides the first detailed selectivity map for methanol oxidation on oxidized Cu(111) and PtCu(111) SAA surfaces. By linking classical mechanistic insights such as methoxy- and formate-mediated pathways with single-atom alloy catalyst design, this work demonstrates that while Pt substitution modulates the oxidation kinetics and oxygen binding, the overall selectivity toward formaldehyde is governed primarily by oxygen coverage. These findings underscore the potential of isolated dopants to tune surface oxidation behavior without compromising the intrinsic partial oxidation selectivity of copper-based catalysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ternary Phosphides Ba M 2 P 2 : Tailoring Crystal and Electronic Structures Enables Highly Efficient HER Electrocatalysis

Binary transition metal phosphides and their solid solutions have emerged as promising hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) catalysts. Although many research endeavors have adopted strategies to vary compositions to optimize catalytic performance, they mainly focus on binary structures, which represent only a small fraction of the abundant phase space of structure types among transition metal phosphides. Here, the largely unexplored class of ternary and multinary ordered phosphides in catalysis comprises two or more metals with quite different chemical nature, concealing the structure–property relationships essential for advancing catalyst design. Here, we explored phosphides crystallizing in one of the most abundant ordered intermetallic structure types, —the ThCr 2 Si 2 type, —where square nets of 3d transition metal M and P atoms are separated by layers of electropositive Ba cations. Four ternary BaM 2 P 2 (M = Fe, Fe/Cu, Fe/Ni, Ni) catalysts were synthesized and characterized. BaNi 2 P 2 showed high HER activity in acidic electrolyte, which required an overpotential, η 10 , of only 62 mV to drive current density j = –10 mA/cm 2 and high stability with a potential drop rate of 0.25 mV/h. BaNi 2 P 2 outperformed other Ni-based catalysts, such as Ni 2 P and Ni 5 P 4 . Notably, at current densities above –170 mA/cm 2 , BaNi 2 P 2 outperformed the standard Pt electrode measured under identical conditions. Electronic structure analysis revealed a volcano-type activity trend among the four BaM 2 P 2 catalysts based on their d-band center positions, highlighting the role of electropositive Ba cations in shifting the Ni-3d orbitals into an optimal position.

BaNi2P2↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Origins of Aerobic Oxidation Catalysis with TAM-3, a MOF with Accessible Co(II) Sites and Large Pores

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are attractive platforms that merge concepts of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysis. Catalyst design and optimization are enabled by an array of synthetic methods that offer independent control over the local chemical structure of lattice-embedded metal ions (i.e., ligand identity and geometry) and the long-range materials properties (i.e., porosity). Establishing the origin of catalytic activity in MOF-promoted reactions remains a significant challenge: The relative rates of catalyst turnover and substrate diffusion dictate the extent to which interstitial sites are accessible and operational in catalysis. To minimize the contributions of surface sites in catalysis, materials with large pore dimensions are often sought, however, the impact of pore expansion on the origins of catalytic activity is similarly challenging to establish. Here, we describe TAM-3, a Co(II) based MOF with accessible metal sites supported by a facially coordinating tris-tetrazole ligand set. TAM-3 features large channel-like pores (17 × 23 Å) and promotes aerobic C−H oxidation and olefin epoxidation. Using a set of simple kinetics experiments, based on the analysis of kinetic isotope effects and olefin oxidation diastereoselectivities, we demonstrate that despite the large pores, interstitial metal ions do not significantly contribute to the observed substrate oxidation. This study highlights the importance of conducting kinetic experiments to assess the origin of apparent catalytic activity with MOFs and the challenge of harnessing reactive oxidants with microporous catalyst materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of structure and coverage on the reactivity of realistic heterogeneous catalysts

Adsorbates often cover the surfaces of catalysts densely as they carry out reactions, dynamically altering their structure and reactivity. Understanding adsorbate-induced phenomena and harnessing them in our broader quest for improved catalysts is a substantial challenge that is only beginning to be addressed. Here, in this work, we chart a path toward a deeper understanding of such phenomena by focusing on emerging in silico modeling methodologies, which will increasingly incorporate machine learning techniques. We first examine how adsorption on catalyst surfaces can lead to local and even global structural changes spanning entire nanoparticles, and how this affects their reactivity. We then evaluate current efforts and the remaining challenges in developing robust and predictive simulations for modeling such behavior. Last, we provide our perspectives in four critical areas—integration of artificial intelligence, building robust catalysis informatics infrastructure, synergism with experimental characterization, and adaptive modeling frameworks—that we believe can help surmount the remaining challenges in rationally designing catalysts in light of these complex phenomena.

catalytic mechanisms↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cobalt(II) Phthalocyanine Substituents Tune the Electrocatalytic CO 2 Conversion to Methanol

Cobalt phthalocyanine (Co(II)Pc) and its derivatives are promising molecular electrocatalysts for the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 to CO and methanol (CH 3 OH). Despite increasing interest, a detailed mechanistic understanding of how ligand substituents influence catalytic activity, selectivity, and efficiency remains limited. In this study, we employ density functional theory (DFT) to systematically investigate the influence of electron-donating groups (EDGs) and electron-withdrawing groups (EWGs) on the electronic structure and redox properties of the Co(II)Pc electrocatalyst, and to elucidate CO 2 RR mechanistic pathways. Our results reveal that EWGs cause a positive shift in the reduction potentials, favor CO 2 binding over protonation of the Co metal center and promote downstream methanol formation at mild potentials. EDGs show opposite trends including favorable protonation steps, promoting a negative shift in the reduction potential, and facilitating the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), which competes with the desired CO 2 RR pathway. Notably, CO dissociation is thermodynamically and kinetically unfavorable across all systems, positioning the redox potential versus CO dissociation energy as a key factor for methanol selectivity. Furthermore, these insights provide a predictive framework for rational catalyst design and underscore the critical role of electronic tuning in advancing molecular electrocatalysts for sustainable CO 2 conversion.

Alcohols↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self‐Stabilized Heterometallic Pair Sites for Selective Ethanol Dehydrogenation on Pt–Cr–Ag Alloy Catalysts

Self‐stabilized, heterometallic pair‐sites can enable fine‐tuning of catalytic functionality while also mitigating dynamic structural changes that degrade catalytic performance. This study demonstrates the development and characterization of trimetallic Pt x Cr x Ag 1‐2x ( x ≤ 0.1) alloys with active Pt–Cr pair‐ensembles for non‐oxidative ethanol dehydrogenation, leveraging predictions that favorable bonding stabilizes Pt–Cr pairs diluted in Ag. Operando X‐ray absorption spectroscopy confirms the preferential formation and stability of Pt–Cr pairings dispersed throughout the Ag matrix, and ambient‐pressure X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy shows that Pt–Cr sites have significant activity for ethanol dehydrogenation, while suppressing reaction processes that deactivate binary Pt–Ag and Cr–Ag alloys. This work demonstrates that stabilizing heterometallic pair sites within trimetallic alloys provides a new avenue for designing catalysts with discrete active sites that are durable and highly selective.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗