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At least 37 records · Page 2

Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) Special Case Study Report: Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) Program

This special case study report presents the Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) team's findings for exploring the correlation between the underlying models of Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) relative to how it identifies, estimates, and integrates Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) activities. The special case study was conducted under the provisions of SETA Contract Task Order (CTO) 15 and the approved technical approach documented in the CTO-15 Modification #1 Task Project Plan.

Kirsch, Paul J.↗

Coccidioidomycosis Osteoarticular Dissemination

Valley fever or coccidioidomycosis is a pulmonary infection caused by species of Coccidioides fungi that are endemic to California and Arizona. Skeletal coccidioidomycosis accounts for about half of disseminated infections, with the vertebral spine being the preferred site of dissemination. Most cases of skeletal coccidioidomycosis progress to bone destruction or spread to adjacent structures such as joints, tendons, and other soft tissues, causing significant pain and restricting mobility. Manifestations of such cases are usually nonspecific, making diagnosis very challenging, especially in non-endemic areas. The lack of basic knowledge and research data on the mechanisms defining susceptibility to extrapulmonary infection, especially when it involves bones and joints, prompted us to survey available clinical and animal data to establish specific research questions that remain to be investigated. In this review, we explore published literature reviews, case reports, and case series on the dissemination of coccidioidomycosis to bones and/or joints. We highlight key differential features with other conditions and opportunities for mechanistic and basic research studies that can help develop novel diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground‐based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010‐2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Morin, Cory↗

SeaWiFS Technical Report Series: Case Studies for SeaWiFS Calibration and Validation - Volume 41

This document provides brief reports, or case studies, on a number of investigations sponsored by the Calibration and Validation Team (CVT) within the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project. Chapter I describes the calibration and characterization of the GSFC sphere, which was used in the recent recalibration of the SeaWiFS instrument. Chapter 2 presents a revision of the diffuse attenuation coefficient, K(490), algorithm based on the SeaWiFS wavelengths. Chapter 3 provides an implementation scheme for an algorithm to remove out-of-band radiance when using a sensor calibration based on a finite width (truncated) spectral response function, e.g., between the 1% transmission points. Chapter 4 describes the implementation schemes for the stray light quality flag (local area coverage [LAC] and global area coverage [GAC]) and the LAC stray light correction.

Yeh, Eueng-nan↗

COVID-19 Lead Time: Evaluating the timeliness and reliability of reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations as leading indicators of hospitalizations and death in the US

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a reliance on real-time data sources to understand the global spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Reported cases were presumed leading indicators for hospitalizations, while hospitalizations were considered predictive of deaths. However, studies have questioned the consistency of reported cases as leading indicators. This study systematically assesses the reliability of United States (US) reported cases and hospitalizations as leading indicators for hospitalizations and deaths respectively, examining the first 2.5 years of the pandemic (January 2020 - June 2022) across different phases of the pandemic and states. Using correlation analysis, population data, and forecasting accuracy measures, we investigate the temporal relationships and identify possible determinants of lead time variability. Notably, we found that the average lead time between reported cases and hospitalizations across US states is relatively short at 1.76 days, implying that reported cases might not be as effective a leading indicator for hospitalizations as previously believed. Populations with higher comorbidity burdens, such as proportion of smokers, are expected on average to have shorter lead times, possibly due to shorter time to hospitalization among these vulnerable populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Case Descriptions and Observations About Cutis Marmorata From Hypobaric Decompressions

There is disagreement about the pathophysiology, classification, and treatment of cutis marmorata (CM), so there is disagreement about the disposition and medical status of a person that had CM. CM is rare, associated with stressful decompressions, and may be associated with serious signs and symptoms of decompression sickness (DCS). CM presents as purple or bluish-red skin mottling, often in the pectoral region, shoulders, chest, or upper abdomen. It is unethical to induce CM in humans so all information comes from retrospective analysis of case reports, or from animal models. A literature search, seven recent case reports from the Johnson Space Center and Brooks Air Force Base Hypobaric DCS Databases, interviews with DCS treatment experts, and responses to surveys provided the factual information used to arrive at our conclusions and recommendations. The "weight of evidence" indicates that CM is a local, not centrally mediated or systemic response to bubbles. It is unclear whether obstruction of arterial or venous blood flow is the primary insult since the lesion is reported under either condition. Any neurological or cardiovascular involvements are coincidental, developing along the same time course. The skin could be the source of the bubbles due to its mass, the associated layer of fat, and the variable nature of skin blood flow. CM should not be categorized as Type II DCS, should be included with other skin manifestations in a category called cutaneous DCS, and hyperbaric treatment is only needed if ground level oxygen is ineffective in the case of altitude-induced CM.

Conkin, Johnny↗

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Unsteady viscous-inviscid interaction procedures for transonic airfoils using Cartesian grids

A viscous-inviscid interaction procedure for transonic airfoils using an Euler/integral boundary layer formulation and Cartesian grids is presented. The approach is based on a time dependent formulation for both the integral boundary layer equations and the Euler equations. Effects of upstream history on the shear stress are modeled by a time dependent rate equation derived from the turbulent kinetic energy equation. Results are presented for two of the test cases reported by Cook et al. (1979) for the RAE 2822 supercritical airfoil and one of the cases reported by Harris (1981) for the NACA 0012 symmetric airfoil. In general, the results are in good agreement with experiment.

Fenno, Charles C., Jr.↗

Clinical utility of T-wave alternans

Electrical alternans represents a variation in the morphology of electrocardiographic complexes on an every-other-beat basis in an ABABAB... pattern. Apparent electrical alternans associated with pericardial effusion results from rotation of the heart in the pericardial sac, and not true alternation in electrical conduction patterns. In contrast, true electrical alternans results from an alternation in electrical conduction patterns in the heart itself. Repolarization alternans is true electrical alternans associated with the ST segment and T wave of the electrocardiogram (ECG). Here we will focus on T-wave alternans (TWA) and its association with susceptibility to ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Electrical alternans was reported in the literature as early as 1909. Historically, electrical alternans has been regarded as a fairly rare electrocardiographic abnormality. Case reports of electrical alternans have been associated with a variety of disease states, including acute ischemia, Prinzmetal's angina, a variety of electrolyte abnormalities, and the long QT syndrome. Interestingly, patients born with the prolonged QT syndrome have a very high incidence of sudden cardiac death at an early age. Schwartz and Malliani showed that patients with the prolonged QT syndrome who do not demonstrate alternans at rest, may evidence alternans during stress such as emotional excitement. Thus, over the years electrical alternans has been associated anecdotally with conditions associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias. In 1948, Kalter reviewed the world literature on electrical alternans and found a total of 41 reported cases. In addition, he reviewed clinical ectrocardiograms from 6059 patients and found five new cases (incidence of less than 1 in 1000 patients). Interestingly, he found a very high mortality, 62%, associated with this condition. Despite the clinical associations reported in the literature, the consensus view of electrical alternans until recent years has been that alternans is an electrocardiographic curiosity rarely encountered in clinical practice which, when identified, does not have specific clinical significance.

Review, Tutorial↗

Exploring the environmental drivers of human blastomycosis cases in the Midwestern United States

Blastomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the eastern United States (US) and Canada caused by the inhalation of the fungi Blastomyces spp. Currently, the environmental drivers of disease dynamics are poorly understood. The goal of our work was to explore what environmental conditions are associated with the annual presence of blastomycosis cases, and therefore are potentially explanatory of the ecological niche of Blastomyces. We examined the relationships between reported cases of blastomycosis in three Midwestern US states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) from 2007–2017 in relation to eleven hypothesized environmental conditions, including climate, stream and soil mineral content, and land cover variables. Then, we fit logistic regression models to explore the relationships between the environmental variables and yearly blastomycosis case occurrence. Mean soil moisture, stream sediment mercury content, percent of water within the county, and woody wetlands land cover were all positively associated with the presence of annual cases, with woody wetlands having the most consistent signal across the three states. We also found significant differences in the likelihood of case presence between US states that were not explained by the variables in our model, suggesting state-level differences in case reporting and disease awareness. Our results provide a perspective on potential biological hypotheses to further test regarding environmental controls on the life cycle and ecological niche of Blastomyces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Geo-temporal patterns to design cost-effective interventions for zoonotic diseases -the case of brucellosis in the country of Georgia

Control of zoonosis can benefit from geo-referenced procedures. Focusing on brucellosis, here the ability of two methods to distinguish disease dissemination patterns and promote cost-effective interventions was compared. Geographical data on bovine, ovine and human brucellosis reported in the country of Georgia between 2014 and 2019 were investigated with (i) the Hot Spot (HS) analysis and (ii) a bio-geographical (BG) alternative. More than one fourth of all sites reported cases affecting two or more species. While ruminant cases displayed different patterns over time, most human cases described similar geo-temporal features, which were associated with the route used by migrant shepherds. Other human cases showed heterogeneous patterns. The BG approach identified small areas with a case density twice as high as the HS method. The BG method also identified, in 2018, a 2.6–2.99 higher case density in zoonotic (human and non-human) sites than in non-zoonotic sites (which only reported cases affecting a single species) –a finding that, if corroborated, could support cost-effective policy-making. Three dissemination hypotheses were supported by the data: (i) human cases induced by sheep-related contacts; (ii) human cases probably mediated by contaminated milk or meat; and (iii) cattle and sheep that infected one another. This proof-of-concept provided a preliminary validation for a method that may support cost-effective interventions oriented to control zoonoses. To expand these findings, additional studies on zoonosis-related decision-making are recommended.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Large-scale Nonlinear Approaches for Inference of Reporting Dynamics and Unobserved SARS-CoV-2 Infections

This work focuses on estimation of unknown states and parameters in a discrete-time, stochastic, SEIR model using reported case counts and mortality data. An SEIR model is based on classifying individuals with respect to their status in regards to the progression of the disease, where S is the number individuals who remain susceptible to the disease, E is the number of individuals who have been exposed to the disease but not yet infectious, I is the number of individuals who are currently infectious, and R is the number of recovered individuals. For convenience, we include in our notation the number of infections or transmissions, T, that represents the number of individuals transitioning from compartment S to compartment E over a particular interval. Similarly, we use C to represent the number of reported cases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the basic reproduction number and underestimated fraction of Mpox cases worldwide at the onset of the outbreak

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks. Sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually transmitted infections, the real burden of mpox could be masked. We quantified the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and the underestimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) and two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated R 0 ranged between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). The underestimation rates for the high- and low-risk populations varied between 25–93% and 65–85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3.60) and lowest in Canada (1.08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and the importance of religion. Given the substantial mpox underestimation, surveillance should be enhanced, and country-specific campaigns against the stigmatization of MSM should be organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗