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DOE OSTI2023

Late Holocene glacier and climate fluctuations in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain ranges, northwestern Canada

Over the last century, northwestern Canada experienced some of the highest rates of tropospheric warming globally, which caused glaciers in the region to rapidly retreat. Our study seeks to extend the record of glacier fluctuations and assess climate drivers prior to the instrumental record in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountains of northwestern Canada. We collected 27 10 Be surface exposure ages across nine cirque and valley glacier moraines to constrain the timing of their emplacement. Cirque and valley glaciers in this region reached their greatest Holocene extents in the latter half of the Little Ice Age (1600–1850 CE). Four erratic boulders, 10–250 m distal from late Holocene moraines, yielded 10 Be exposure ages of 10.9–11.6 ka, demonstrating that by ca. 11 ka, alpine glaciers were no more extensive than during the last several hundred years. Estimated temperature change obtained through reconstruction of equilibrium line altitudes shows that since ca. 1850 CE, mean annual temperatures have risen 0.2–2.3 °C. We use our glacier chronology and the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to estimate that from 1000 CE, glaciers in this region reached a maximum total volume of 34–38 km 3 between 1765 and 1855 CE and had lost nearly half their ice volume by 2019 CE. OGGM was unable to produce modeled glacier lengths that match the timing or magnitude of the maximum glacier extent indicated by the 10 Be chronology. However, when applied to the entire Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain region, past millennium OGGM simulations using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) yield late Holocene glacier volume change temporally consistent with our moraine and remote sensing record, while the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model 2 (MRI-ESM2) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) fail to produce modeled glacier change consistent with our glacier chronology. Finally, OGGM forced by future climate projections under varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios predicts 85 % to over 97 % glacier volume loss by the end of the 21st century. The loss of glaciers from this region will have profound impacts on local ecosystems and communities that rely on meltwater from glacierized catchments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-Assembly of Accumulated Sphingolipids into Cytotoxic Fibrils in Globoid Cell Leukodystrophy and Their Inhibition by Small Molecules In Vitro

Globoid cell leukodystrophy (GLD) is a rare hereditary inborn error of metabolism due to recessive mutations that cause loss of function of the enzyme galactosylceramidase (GALC). This results in the accumulation of the sphingolipids galactosylceramide (GalCer) and galactosylsphingosine (GalSph) in the lysosomes of neuronal cells. The accumulated GalCer and GalSph in cerebral macrophages of GLD patients are neurotoxic to oligodendrocytes and Schwann cells, leading to demyelination in the nervous system. The disease typically presents with infantile onset in the first six months of life and death by age 2. Here, we identified a supramolecular structure of GalCer and GalSph that may contribute to GLD pathology. Using biophysical assays commonly used for studying proteinaceous amyloids, e.g., amyloidspecific dyes, microscopical imaging, and a series of analytical methods (FTIR, PXRD, and SAXS), we demonstrate that both GalCer and GalSph can self-assemble in vitro into highly organized fibrils reminiscent of fibrils of amyloidogenic proteins. These fibrils exhibit significant cytotoxicity to both neuronal and oligodendroglial cells. Using an inhibitor of the GALC enzyme in cell culture to mimic the GLD pathophysiology, we could detect the accumulation of these fibrils in cells. We also observed that small molecules, which are bona fide inhibitors of proteinaceous amyloids, effectively mitigated the formation of the GalCer and GalSph fibrillar structures in vitro. Finally, the small molecule ameliorated the cytotoxic effects of the sphingolipid fibrils in SH-SY5Y cells, suggesting a potential avenue for therapeutic intervention in GLD orphan disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Q1 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q1: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis: $/circ$ Initially run CESOL with SOLPS and map heat flux using simple HEAT method: ▪ Generate SOLPS grid for CAT reference case, ▪ Implement and apply ‘lower’ fidelity method of using HEAT-like analytic method to map SOLPS heat flux from charged particles to first wall, and ▪ Provide initial heat flux + neutron loading for further engineering analysis. 2. Demonstrate multiphysics magnet analysis: $/circ$ Demonstrate validation of the Elmer workflow by comparing induced stresses due to EM forces generated by TF coils using multiple codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A tale of two towers: comparing NEON and AmeriFlux data streams at Bartlett Experimental Forest

Long-term ecological data are essential for detecting impacts of climate change and other global change factors, and for making informed predictions about future change. However, long-term measurements are rarely replicated at the site level, which raises questions about their representativeness. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the agreement of parallel observations from AmeriFlux and NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) towers at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. The two towers are separated by a horizontal distance of 93 m. Here, we focused our analysis on standard meteorological variables; fluxes of CO 2 , sensible heat, and latent heat measured by eddy covariance; and phenology derived from PhenoCam imagery. Results suggest excellent agreement between AmeriFlux and NEON in meteorology and phenology, and good agreement in fluxes at the half-hourly scale. However, large disagreements in CO 2 and latent heat fluxes occurred at the annual scale, with implications especially for the forest carbon balance. The AmeriFlux tower measurements indicate a site that is close to carbon-neutral (-8 ± 65 g C m -2 y -1 , mean ± 1 SD), whereas the NEON tower measurements indicate a forest that is a carbon sink (-137 ± 10 g C m -2 y -1 ). Causes of this disagreement may include measurement height (26 m vs. 35 m), which resulted in different flux footprints being measured by the two towers, and differences in the flux measurement systems. Our results suggest the need for caution when attempting to merge long-term flux data from two different measurement platforms, and when using measurements from any one measurement platform to inform decision-making on issues related to carbon accounting or natural climate solutions.

Carbon cycle↗

DOE OSTI2026

Highly Anisotropic Quasi‐Direct Organic Metal Halide Hybrids: A Platform for Polarization‐Sensitive Optoelectronics

Low-dimensional organic–inorganic metal halide hybrids (OMHHs) exhibit remarkable optical properties and enhanced environmental stability. We investigate a 1D OMHH with formula C 4 N 2 H 14 PbBr 4 , consisting of Pb–Br chains separated by organic cations, which shows a large Stokes shift (0.83 eV) and broadband emission. Through first-principles calculations and polarized Raman spectroscopy, we characterize the material's vibrational properties and identify the specific phonon modes that drive exciton self-trapping. Our novel GW/Bethe-Salpeter equation force formalism reveals that low-frequency phonons (∼ 100 cm −1 , primarily involving Pb–Br motions) couple strongly with excitons, with a remarkably high Huang-Rhys factor of 137 ± 4, and gives a pathway for ultrafast structural analysis during the absorption process. This phonon-exciton coupling mechanism explains the material's broadband emission and provides a pathway for controlling optical properties through vibrations and for tuning vibrations through optical excitations. The material also exhibits highly anisotropic optical properties and electronic transport, with bands that are dispersive along the Pb–Br chains but nearly flat in perpendicular directions, resulting in direction-dependent electrical conductivity that is calculated to be an order of magnitude higher along the chain direction and consistent with measurements. These combined properties make this system an excellent platform for polarization-sensitive optoelectronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Q3 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q3: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis. • Benchmark between two first wall heat flux mapping methods, identify importance of various heat flux sources and physics impact of using fully coupled CESOL vs post-analysis evaluation. 2. Generate medium fidelity parametrized CAD. • Generate parametrized CAD components for the CAT example case via either user-defined modules called within the geometry generation or by defeatured/parametrized CAD, including DCLL blanket matched to divertor boundary and magnets. Define materials, labels, and boundary conditions for passing the mesh to CFD tools. 3. Demonstrate multiphysics magnet analysis. • Demonstrate magnet analysis workflow called from the FREDA workflow, and 4. Demonstrate nuclear analysis. • Add model to OpenFOAM and/or other codes possibly including Diablo to account for tritium diffusion in solids.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preemptive optimization of a clinical antibody for broad neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 variants and robustness against viral escape

Most previously authorized clinical antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have lost neutralizing activity to recent variants due to rapid viral evolution. To mitigate such escape, we preemptively enhance AZD3152, an antibody authorized for prophylaxis in immunocompromised individuals. Using deep mutational scanning (DMS) on the SARS-CoV-2 antigen, we identify AZD3152 vulnerabilities at antigen positions F456 and D420. Through two iterations of computational antibody design that integrates structure-based modeling, machine-learning, and experimental validation, we co-optimize AZD3152 against 24 contemporary and previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, as well as 20 potential future escape variants. Our top candidate, 3152-1142, restores full potency (100-fold improvement) against the more recently emerged XBB.1.5+F456L variant that escaped AZD3152, maintains potency against previous variants of concern, and shows no additional vulnerability as assessed by DMS. This preemptive mitigation demonstrates a generalizable approach for optimizing existing antibodies against potential future viral escape.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Q2 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q2: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis: $\circ$ Run CESOL with BOUT++/Hermes-3 and immersed boundary condition to directly map to wall: • Run BOUT++/Hermes-3 through the IPS workflow to find radial particle and energy diffusivities to match either the Eich or the physics-based scaling of the SOL heat flux width, and • Expand source of first wall heat flux to include charged particles, neutrals, and radiation from the core+edge. 2. Generate medium fidelity parametrized CAD: $\circ$ Develop the TRACER tool to read an existing CAD, regenerate the geometry based on vertex location and connectivity information, define vertex translation and parameters needed for scaling the CAD, and $\circ$ Utilize the FreeGS code to determine CAT PF coil placement, including minimizing the number of coils, coil current, and electromechanical stresses. 3. Utilize plasma loading for engineering analysis: $\circ$ Couple the plasma loading to input for OpenFOAM and demonstrate initial test of thermal analysis of CAT first wall loading with typical DCLL blanket component cooling boundary conditions. 4. Demonstrate nuclear analysis: $\circ$ Apply initial analysis of tritium transport in DCLL blanket by evaluating spatially resolved tritium generation rates, tritium diffusion and convection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electronic Spin Relaxation and Clustering in High-Pressure High-Temperature Synthesized Microcrystalline Diamond Particles with Reduced Nitrogen Content

The negatively charged nitrogen-vacancy (NV – ) color center in diamonds is widely studied because of numerous applications of this unique quantum system in sensing and quantum information sciences. While substitutional nitrogen is required to form the NV – centers in diamond, it also yields other paramagnetic defects─primarily the neutrally charged substitutional nitrogen centers (P1)─that decrease NV – spin coherence, which in turn degrades performance in applications. Herein, we investigate high-pressure high-temperature synthesized diamond microparticles (ca. 140–185 μm) having lower─ranging from 3 to 38 ppm─than the typical nitrogen content of type 1b diamond ( ca. 100 ppm and higher) typically used for the production of fluorescent diamond particles with NV – centers. A suite of electron paramagnetic resonance, optically detected magnetic resonance, and nuclear magnetic resonance methods are used to characterize spin properties of P1 and NV – centers in the particles. Upon decreasing the nitrogen content from 29 to 3 ppm, the ensemble NV – T 2 relaxation time increased by about 3-fold as measured directly in the Hahn Echo experiment at magnetic field of 1.2 T. Analysis of electronic relaxation of P1 centers revealed the existence of at least two distinct populations of P1 centers, consisting of fast and slower relaxing spins and allowed for an estimation of local concentrations. Even with <10 ppm nitrogen contents, the analysis indicated a highly heterogeneous distribution of P1 centers, suggesting the possibility of P1 spin clustering even at low nitrogen concentrations. The combined data demonstrate that the particles prepared from HPHT diamond with a low nitrogen content offer improved spin properties that are beneficial for NV – sensing applications.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electrochemically mediated disproportionation for selective formaldehyde upcycling in acid

Formaldehyde (FA) electrolysis is attractive for paired production of value‑added chemicals. However, conventional electrolysis adopts alkaline electrolytes, which triggers FA self-disproportionation and severe feed loss. Here we introduce a sustainable and selective strategy for valorizing FA through electrochemically mediated disproportionation in acidic electrolytes. By leveraging a dual-electrode system consisting of a hydrophobic copper tetraminophthalocyanine layer (CuTAPc-layer) cathode and a Pt 2 Ru bimetallic anode, we efficiently convert FA into methanol and formic acid at high Faradaic efficiencies of 93.2% and 91.3%, respectively. Compared with alkaline FA oxidation, which can lose up to 76% FA and complicate downstream separation, the acidic system suppresses side reactions to ensure high product purity. Mechanism studies reveal that the hydrophobic microenvironment of CuTAPc-layer suppresses hydrogen evolution, while the stronger oxophilicity of Pt 2 Ru enhances FA activation and lowers the key deprotonation barrier for FA oxidation. The integrated device demonstrates application potential in polyoxymethylene upgrading, delivering 374.2 mA at 4 V with ~90% single-pass conversion, establishing a scalable and eco-friendly electrochemical pathway for chemical upcycling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Grassroots Network and Community Roadmap for Interconnected Autonomous Science Laboratories for Accelerated Discovery

Scientific discovery is being revolutionized by AI and autonomous systems, yet current autonomous laboratories remain isolated islands unable to collaborate across institutions. We present the Autonomous Interconnected Science Lab Ecosystem (AISLE), a grassroots network transforming fragmented capabilities into a unified system that shorten the path from ideation to innovation to impact and accelerates discovery from decades to months. AISLE addresses five critical dimensions: (1) cross-institutional equipment orchestration, (2) intelligent data management with FAIR compliance, (3) AI-agent driven orchestration grounded in scientific principles, (4) interoperable agent communication interfaces, and (5) AI/ML-integrated scientific education. By connecting autonomous agents across institutional boundaries, autonomous science can unlock research spaces inaccessible to traditional approaches while democratizing cutting-edge technologies. This paradigm shift toward collaborative autonomous science promises breakthroughs in sustainable energy, materials development, and public health.

Ferreira da Silva, Rafael [Oak Ridge National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2025

JWST’s PEARLS: A z ≃ 6 quasar in a train-wreck galaxy merger system

We present JWST NIRSpec integral field spectroscopy observations of the z = 5.89 quasar NDWFS J1425+3254 from 0.6–5.3 μm, covering the rest-frame ultraviolet and optical at a spectral resolution of R ∼ 100. The quasar has a black hole mass of M BH = (1.4 +3.1 −1.0 ) × 10 9 M ⊙ and an Eddington ratio of L Bol /L Edd = 0.3 +0.6 −0.2 , as implied from the broad Balmer Hα and Hβ lines. The quasar host has significant ongoing obscured star formation, as well as a quasar-driven outflow with velocity 6050 +460 −630 km s −1 and ionised outflow rate of 1650 +130 −1230 M ⊙ yr −1 . This is possibly one of the most extreme outflows in the early Universe. The data also reveal that two companion galaxies are merging with the quasar host. The north-eastern companion galaxy is relatively old and very massive, with a luminosity-weighted stellar age of 65 +9 −4 Myr, stellar mass of (3.6 +0.6 −0.3 #x00D7; 10 11 M ⊙ , and star-formation rate (SFR) of ∼15–30 M ⊙ yr −1 . A bridge of gas connects this companion galaxy and the host, confirming their ongoing interaction. A second merger is occurring between the quasar host and a much younger companion galaxy to the south, with a stellar age of 6.7 ± 1.8 Myr, stellar mass of (1.9 ± 0.4)×10 10 M ⊙ , and SFR of ∼40–65 M ⊙ yr −1 . There is also another galaxy in the field, likely in the foreground at z = 1.135, which could be gravitationally lensing the quasar with a magnification of 1 < μ < 2 and, thus, < 0.75 mag. Overall, the system is a ‘train-wreck’ merger of three galaxies, with star formation and extreme quasar activity that were likely triggered by these ongoing interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS aerosol optical depth and AeroCom multi-model simulations: implications for model constraints and emission inventories

We assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis

The First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis (aka the STEP 1 Project or the Project) aimed to (1) developed a brand-new web tool that could provide decision support through free, rapid techno-economic analysis of behind-the-meter solar+storage systems for industrial process heat and (2) conduct high-level analyses of the cost-competitiveness of the same systems across the US in key sectors. The STEP 1 web tool collects key location, land availability, thermal load profile, proccess heat temperature and media, and other key parameters through an easy-to-use user interface (UI). The UI was designed to meet the user at their level of understanding by minimizing the number of required inputs as much as possible while including options for more nuanced inputs if the user desires. STEP 1 advises users on which solar thermal tehcnologies that could fit their needs based on the inputs provided (namely process media and temperature). The tool can model a wide range of solar thermal technologies including flat plate collectors, evacuated tubes, parabolic troughs, linear Fresnel, and molten salt towers all with corresponding thermal energy storage (TES) - solar PV with resistive heating and TES is also included. Once the parameters are collected, a nominal thermal energy production profile for the facility's location is generated using NREL's System Advisory Model (SAM) and then passed to a modified version of NREL's REopt platform to optimize the size (capacity) and dispatch of the solar+storage system to minimize lifecycle costs subject to energy balance, fuel and electricity rates, emission reductions goals, and other constraints. This entire process takes less than 20 minutes, is completely free, requires zero coding skills, and provides the user with a high-level assessment on the techno-economic feasability of deploying solar+storage systems for their energy needs. In addition to the development of the STEP 1 web tool, the project completed two complementary analyses focused on leveraging the backend code of STEP 1, public industrial facility locations and fuel consumption data, and key sector information to assess the economic opportunity of reducing fuel costs at various levels of capacity factor around the US. Both analyses found that there are key markets, locations, industrial sectors (namely food and beverage), and degrees of offset where solar thermal technologies could be cost-effectively deployed, highlighting a key market entry point for these technologies, and assessing deployment potential. In summary, the STEP 1 project improved the opportunities for solar+storage systems to expand into the industrial process heat market through breaking down barriers to assessing these technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗