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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Motivations for early high-profile FRIB experiments

This white paper is the result of a collaboration by many of those that attended a workshop at the facility for rare isotope beams (FRIB), organized by the FRIB Theory Alliance (FRIB-TA), on ‘Theoretical Justifications and Motivations for Early High-Profile FRIB Experiments’. It covers a wide range of topics related to the science that will be explored at FRIB. After a brief introduction, the sections address: section 2: Overview of theoretical methods, section 3: Experimental capabilities, section 4: Structure, section 5: Near-threshold Physics, section 6: Reaction mechanisms, section 7: Nuclear equations of state, section 8: Nuclear astrophysics, section 9: Fundamental symmetries, and section 10: Experimental design and uncertainty quantification.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular diversity of dissolved organic matter reflects macroecological patterns in river networks

Deciphering dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecular complexity is crucial for understanding ecosystem function. Using the continental-scale Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic Rivers Systems (WHONDRS) Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) dataset, we reveal fundamental scaling patterns of DOM chemodiversity with watershed characteristics. Analysis of 54 river sites shows local and regional watershed features significantly influence DOM chemodiversity (2500–8718 unique formulae), exhibiting consistent scaling patterns across compound classes and a novel latitudinal gradient (decreasing diversity with increasing latitude). Scaling relationships for DOM composition vary by compound class. Crucially, the scaling parameters (B, baseline chemodiversity; Z, sensitivity) are linearly interrelated. This B–Z relationship is most robust for potentially bio-labile carbohydrates (coefficient of determination R 2 ≈ 0.85), diminishing for recalcitrant, plant-derived molecules (such as lignin), and indicates (potential) biolability-dependent coupling between baseline diversity and environmental responsiveness. These quantitative scaling relationships, with scaling exponents ranging from − 2.1 to 2.2 across compound classes, enable prediction of DOM composition across watersheds, offering a framework to understand ecosystem responses to environmental change. This research bridges biogeochemistry and ecology, providing tools to anticipate molecular transformations across scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hund’s flat band in a frustrated spinel oxide

Electronic flat bands associated with quenched kinetic energy and heavy electron mass have attracted great interest for promoting strong electronic correlations and emergent phenomena such as high-temperature charge fractionalization and superconductivity. Intense experimental and theoretical research has been devoted to establishing the rich nontrivial metallic and heavy fermion phases intertwined with such localized electronic states. Here, in this study, we investigate the transition metal oxide spinel LiV 2 O 4 , an enigmatic heavy fermion compound lacking localized f orbital states. We use angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy and dynamical mean-field theory to reveal a kind of correlation-induced flat band with suppressed interatomic electron hopping arising from intra-atomic Hund’s coupling. The appearance of heavy quasiparticles is ascribed to a proximate orbital-selective Mott state characterized by fluctuating local moments as evidenced by complementary magnetotransport measurements. The spectroscopic fingerprints of long-lived quasiparticles and their disappearance with increasing temperature further support the emergence of a high-temperature “bad” metal state observed in transport data. This work resolves a long-standing puzzle on the origin of heavy fermion behavior and unconventional transport in LiV 2 O 4 . Simultaneously, it opens a path to achieving flat bands through electronic interactions in d-orbital systems with geometrical frustration, potentially enabling the realization of exotic phases of matter such as the fractionalized Fermi liquids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Key Environmental and Ecological Variables of Wetland CH 4 and CO 2 Fluxes Change With Warming

Wetlands are important ecosystems for the global carbon cycle, impacting regional and global methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) budgets. This study examines how environmental and ecological variables impact wetland CH 4 flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) across 17 sites globally. We also quantified the importance of variables for each wetland type and site at monthly scale under normal and warm temperatures using dominance analysis. We identified soil and air temperature (TS, TA, respectively) as key variables influencing wetland CH4, and latent heat (LE) and shortwave radiation (SW) for NEE under normal and warm conditions. However, the importance of some variables shifted with warming. For predicting the variability of wetland CH4 flux under warming, gross primary productivity (GPP) and LE, replacing wind direction (WD), were dominant variables for tropical swamps, while NEE was important for high-latitude fens and bogs under warm temperatures. For wetland NEE, the role of TA and TS decreased across all wetland types with warming, while vapor pressure deficit (VPD) became more important for mid and high-latitude wetlands. Our results reveal the complex responses of wetland carbon flux to environmental and ecological variables with warming and provide new insights into improving wetland models by incorporating additional variables and accounting for the changing roles of variables in carbon flux under warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Budget's dynamic vegetation models

Computational models play an increasingly vital role in scientific research by enabling the numerical simulation of complex processes. Such models are also fundamental in geosciences. For instance, they offer critical insights into the impacts of global change on the Earth system today and in the future. Beyond their value as research tools, models are also software products and should therefore adhere to certain established software engineering standards. However, scientists are rarely trained as software developers, which can lead to potential deficiencies in software quality like unreadable, inefficient, or erroneous code. The complexity of models, coupled with their integration into broader workflows, also often makes it challenging to reproduce results, evaluate processes, and build upon them. In this paper, we review the state and current practices of the development processes of the state-of-the-art land surface models used by the Global Carbon Budget. We combine the experience of modelers from the respective research groups with the expertise of software engineers from tech companies to outline key principles and tools for improving software quality in research. We explore four main areas: (1) model testing and validation, (2) scientific, technical, and user documentation, (3) version control, continuous integration, and code review, and (4) the portability and reproducibility of workflows. Our review reveals that while modeling communities are incorporating many best practices, significant room for improvement remains in areas such as automated testing, automated documentation, and reproducibility. Therefore, we here identify and promote essential software engineering practices, including numerous examples of practices from within the community that can serve as guidelines for other models and could help streamline processes across the entire community. We conclude with an open-source example implementation of these principles, demonstrating portable and reproducible data flows, a continuous integration setup, and web-based visualizations. This example may serve as a practical resource for model developers, users, and all scientists engaged in scientific programming.

Gregor, Konstantin [Technical Univ. of Munich (Ger↗
DOE OSTI2026

Silicon pinhole strip defects and their impact on ATLAS Inner Tracker HV current measurement

In preparation for the High-Luminsity LHC (HL-LHC) [1], the ATLAS detector will undergo major detector upgrades, including the replacement of the current Inner Detector with the new all-silicon Inner Tracker (ITk) [2]. The ITk consists of a pixel detector close to the beamline surrounded by a large-area strip detector. During detector production, the electrical properties of silicon sensors and readout electronics must be characterized through a series of quality control (QC) and quality assurance tests. These tests ensure any defect is captured at the earliest possible stage. One such defect, callled a pinhole, occurs when the strip implant and the metal readout electrode are shorted through the intermediary dielectric layer. Notably, the introduction of pinholes during module assembly and pinhole effects on completed modules, especially on leakage current measurement circuitry, have never been studied. In this paper, we investigate the effect of such connections on the sensor leakage current measurements of completed modules and introduce new ways to locate pinholed strips. Here, with minor modifications to testing procedures, such defects are shown not to impede module testing or performance.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coulomb excitation of 80 Sr and the limits of the 𝑁 ≈ 𝑍 ≈ 40 island of deformation

The region of 𝑁 ≈ 𝑍 ≈ 40 has long been associated with strongly deformed nuclear configurations. The presence of this strong deformation was recently confirmed through lifetime measurements in 𝑁 ≈ 𝑍 Sr and Zr nuclei. Theoretically, however, these nuclei present a challenge due to the vast valence space required to incorporate all necessary orbitals. Recent state-of-the-art predictions indicate a near axial prolate deformation for 𝑁 = 𝑍 and 𝑁 = 𝑍+2 nuclei between 𝑁 = 𝑍 = 36 and 𝑁 = 𝑍 = 40. In this work we investigate the shores of this island of deformation through a sub-barrier Coulomb excitation study of the 𝑁 = 𝑍+4 nucleus, 80 Sr . Extracting a spectroscopic quadrupole moment of 𝑄 𝑠 ⁡($2^+_1$)= $0.5^{+0.8}_{−0.9}$𝑒⁢b, we find that 80 Sr is inconsistent with significant axial prolate deformation with a significance of 1.5⁢𝜎. This result, albeit with a large uncertainty, indicates that the predicted region of strong prolate deformation around 𝑁 = 𝑍 = 40 is tightly constrained to the quartet of nuclei: 76,78 Sr and 78,80 Zr .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comprehensive earthquake catalogue update and spatiotemporal distribution analysis for Iraq and surrounding regions, northeastern Arabian Plate

The updated earthquake catalogue for Iraq covers the period from 1900 to the end of 2021 and includes over 37 000 recorded earthquakes. To create this comprehensive catalogue, five key steps were taken: compiling bulletins, calculating moment magnitudes, harmonizing magnitudes, establishing empirical conversion relations and evaluating the completeness of the catalogue. A notable enhancement in this update is the direct calculation of moment magnitudes for approximately 2800 earthquakes, achieved through the coda envelope technique and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq. This updated catalogue serves as a valuable resource for examining the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes, with respect to earthquake density, maximum moment magnitude and seismogenic depths. Additionally, the Gutenberg–Richter relationship was applied to calculate the a- and b-values specific to Iraq. The findings show that the Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt has a seismogenic layer (source) that ranges from 2 to 33 km deep and experiences high seismic activity. In contrast, the Mesopotamian Foredeep has a seismogenic layer ranging from 1 to 25 km deep and has lower seismic activity. The greatest seismic activity is concentrated around the Mandili-Badra-Teeb fault, which has experienced significant ruptures over time. The Outer Arabian Platform is identified as the main area of seismic activity, while additional activity occurs on the Inner Arabian Platform. Three major tectonic boundaries define the distribution of earthquakes in the northeastern Arabian Plate. These boundaries are defined by the Main Zagros Reverse Fault, the Zagros Foredeep Fault and the Anah Graben and Abu Jir-Euphrates Fault Zone. These boundaries highlight variations in seismicity levels and the spatial distribution of deformation in the region. The updated earthquake catalogue presented in this study is expected to play a vital role in regional seismicity assessments and seismic hazard analyses for Iraq and its surrounding areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overestimated natural biological nitrogen fixation translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect in Earth system models

CO 2 fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere is limited by nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the dominant natural nitrogen source to the terrestrial biosphere and can alleviate nitrogen limitation but is poorly constrained in Earth system models (ESMs). Here, in this study, we compare terrestrial BNF from an ensemble of ESMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to a new global synthesis of observations across natural and agricultural biomes. We find that compared to observations, ESMs underestimate agricultural BNF but overestimate natural BNF in the present day by over 50%. Natural BNF is overestimated in the most productive ecosystems that contribute most to the terrestrial carbon sink (forests and grasslands). ESMs with different BNF representations yield a range of BNF responses to CO 2 enrichment. Some ESMs with phenomenological representations of BNF predict a natural BNF increase in response to a doubling of CO 2 that aligns with a meta-analysis of CO 2 enrichment experiments (31% increase) but fail to account for the substantial carbon cost of BNF. In contrast, ESMs with mechanistic representations of BNF account for its carbon cost as well as its regulation by nitrogen limitation but overestimate the BNF response to a doubling of CO 2 (135% increase). Overall, all current BNF representations in ESMs fall short of fully capturing its response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, we find a positive correlation between modeled present-day natural BNF and the CO 2 fertilization effect across ESMs, suggesting that overestimated natural BNF translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect of approximately 11% in ESMs.

Biological nitrogen fixation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Cosmic Filaments on Galaxy Morphological Evolution and Predictions of Early Cosmic Web Structure for Roman

We leverage the IllustrisTNG cosmological simulations to test how the large-scale cosmic web shapes galaxy morphology and to forecast the early cosmic web structure that the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will reveal. In the hydrodynamic TNG50 and N-body TNG50-Dark runs, we reconstruct the cosmic web at redshifts z = 0, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, and 4 with the Monte Carlo Physarum Machine density estimator and the DisPerSE structure identification framework. We confirm that dark matter halos start out predominantly prolate (elongated), and their shapes are aligned with their nearest filaments; prolate galaxies retain strong shape alignment with their outer halos to later times. At z ≥ 1, the fraction of prolate (spheroidal) halos increases (decreases) toward lower stellar mass, higher redshift, and lower filament density. At z < 1, more spheroidal (oblate) stellar structures preferentially reside in higher-density (lower-density) filaments. We also find that higher-density filaments favor extended rotationally supported disks, whereas lower-density filaments more often host smaller dispersion-supported systems. Then, generating mock galaxy samples from TNG100 and TNG50, we predict the early cosmic web accessible to Roman. We find that the spectroscopic emission-line depth planned for the High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey (HLWAS) yields a highly incomplete galaxy sample that does not accurately trace the z = 1 cosmic web. A survey ≥2.5× deeper over a few square degrees would enable a proper reconstruction and reveal qualitatively correct filament–galaxy morphology relationships. Nevertheless, the planned HLWAS Deep field should still identify most galaxy overdensities; targeted deeper spectroscopy of these regions would efficiently and adequately map the early filamentary structure.

Hasan, Farhanul [Space Telescope Science Institute↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO 2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

JWST’s PEARLS: A z ≃ 6 quasar in a train-wreck galaxy merger system

We present JWST NIRSpec integral field spectroscopy observations of the z = 5.89 quasar NDWFS J1425+3254 from 0.6–5.3 μm, covering the rest-frame ultraviolet and optical at a spectral resolution of R ∼ 100. The quasar has a black hole mass of M BH = (1.4 +3.1 −1.0 ) × 10 9 M ⊙ and an Eddington ratio of L Bol /L Edd = 0.3 +0.6 −0.2 , as implied from the broad Balmer Hα and Hβ lines. The quasar host has significant ongoing obscured star formation, as well as a quasar-driven outflow with velocity 6050 +460 −630 km s −1 and ionised outflow rate of 1650 +130 −1230 M ⊙ yr −1 . This is possibly one of the most extreme outflows in the early Universe. The data also reveal that two companion galaxies are merging with the quasar host. The north-eastern companion galaxy is relatively old and very massive, with a luminosity-weighted stellar age of 65 +9 −4 Myr, stellar mass of (3.6 +0.6 −0.3 #x00D7; 10 11 M ⊙ , and star-formation rate (SFR) of ∼15–30 M ⊙ yr −1 . A bridge of gas connects this companion galaxy and the host, confirming their ongoing interaction. A second merger is occurring between the quasar host and a much younger companion galaxy to the south, with a stellar age of 6.7 ± 1.8 Myr, stellar mass of (1.9 ± 0.4)×10 10 M ⊙ , and SFR of ∼40–65 M ⊙ yr −1 . There is also another galaxy in the field, likely in the foreground at z = 1.135, which could be gravitationally lensing the quasar with a magnification of 1 < μ < 2 and, thus, < 0.75 mag. Overall, the system is a ‘train-wreck’ merger of three galaxies, with star formation and extreme quasar activity that were likely triggered by these ongoing interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Airborne imaging spectroscopy surveys of Arctic and boreal Alaska and northwestern Canada 2017–2023

Since 2015, NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) has investigated how climate change impacts the vulnerability and/or resilience of the permafrost-affected ecosystems of Alaska and northwestern Canada. ABoVE conducted extensive surveys with the Next Generation Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG) during 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022 and with AVIRIS-3 in 2023 to characterize tundra, taiga, peatlands, and wetlands in unprecedented detail. The ABoVE AVIRIS dataset comprises ~1700 individual flight lines covering ~120,000 km 2 with nominal 5 m × 5 m spatial resolution. Data include individual transects to capture important gradients like the tundra-taiga ecotone and maps of up to 10,000 km 2 for key study areas like the Mackenzie Delta. The ABoVE AVIRIS surveys enable diverse ecosystem science, provide crucial benchmark data for validating retrievals from the PACE, PRISMA, and EnMAP satellite sensors and help prepare for the SBG and CHIME missions. This paper guides interested researchers to fully explore the ABoVE AVIRIS spectral imagery and complements our guide to the ABoVE airborne synthetic aperture radar surveys.

Miller, Charles E. [California Institute of Techno↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗