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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1974

Rigidity spectrum of z greater than or equal to 3 cosmic-ray nuclei in the range 4-285 GV and a search for cosmic antimatter

A measurement, using the magnetic emulsion spectrometer system, of the differential rigidity spectrum of Z greater than or equal to 3 nuclei of the galactic cosmic radiation is presented. The system was flown on Aug. 22, 1969, from Palestine, Texas. The instrument floated above 125,000 feet for eight hours. The data in the rigidity range 8-285 GV can be represented by a power-law spectrum in rigidity, J(rho) = A rho to the minus gamma power, with the exponent gamma = 2.6 plus or minus 0.10. The spectrum in the range 15-285 GV is also described by the same exponent, gamma = 2.6 plus or minus 0.25. The data below 8 GV cannot be described by the same power law without invoking solar modulation. A set of nonunique parameters for modulation are given. Upper limit for the fraction of antimatter in the rigidity range 4-125 GV is .005 with 95% confidence limit.

Golden, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The detection of large amounts of cool, x ray absorbing gas in distant clusters of galaxies. What does this mean?

We present an x-ray spectral study of 12 distant (z = 0.17-0.54) rich clusters of galaxies observed with the Einstein Observatory Imaging Proportional Counter. These x-ray spectral data show evidence for substantial excess absorptions beyond those expected in the galaxy, indicating the presence of large amounts of x-ray absorbing cool gas in these distant clusters. The mean value of the excess absorptions corresponds to an absorbing gas column density approximately greater than 10(exp 21)/sq cm. We calculate the x-ray luminosities of the clusters with observed fluxes only in the 0.8-3.5 keV band where the fluxes are less effected by the absorptions, and use the temperature-to-luminosity correlation (known only for nearby clusters) to estimate the temperatures of the hot intracluster medium (ICM) in the distant clusters. These temperature estimates, together with the spectral fits, provide further constraints on the column densities in the individual clusters. For the cluster CL 0016+16, the lower limit on the column density is found to be 8 x 10(exp 20)/sq cm at the 99 percent confidence limit. We also show that the ratio of the temperature obtained from the spectral fit to the temperature expected from the correlation tends to decrease with increasing look-back time, indicating possible temperature evolution of the hot ICM in the recent past. The inclusion of this evolutionary effect further increases the absorptions required in fitting the spectra.

Wang, Qingde↗
NASA NTRS1994

The massive halos of spiral galaxies

We use a sample of satellite galaxies to demonstrate the existence of extended massive dark halos around spiral galaxies. Isolated spirals with rotation velocities near 250 km/s have a typical halo mass within 200 kpc of 1.5-2.6 x 10(exp 12) solar mass (90% confidence range for H(sub 0) = 75 km/s/Mpc). This result is most easily derived using standard mass estimator techniques, but such techniques do not account for the strong observational selection effects in the sample, nor for the extended mass distributions that the data imply. These complications can be addressed using scale-free models similar to those previously employed to study binary galaxies. When satellite velocities are assumed isotropic, both methods imply massive and extended halos. However, the derived masses depend sensitively on the assumed shape of satellite orbits. Furthermore, both methods ignore the fact that many of the satellites in the sample have orbital periods comparable to the Hubble time. The orbital phases of such satellites cannot be random, and their distribution in radius cannot be freely adjusted; rather these properties reflect ongoing infall onto the outer halos of their primaries. We use detailed dynamical models for halo formation to evaluate these problems, and we devise a maximum likelihood technique for estimating the parameters of such models from the data. The most strongly constrained parameter is the mass within 200-300 kpc, giving the confidence limits quoted above. The eccentricity, e, of satellite orbits is also strongly constrained, 0.50 less than e less than 0.88 at 90% confidence, implying a near-isotropic distribution of satellite velocities. The cosmic density parameter in the vicinity of our isolated halos exceeds 0.13 at 90% confidence, with preferred values exceeding 0.3.

Zaritsky, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS2017

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Chappell, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An upper limit to coronal X-rays from single, magnetic white dwarfs

Pointed ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) exposures of 9277 and 6992 sec, directed toward the nearby, single, cool, magnetic white dwarfs GR 290 and EG 250 yielded no counts significantly above the expected background rate. The corresponding flux limits (for an assumed source temperature of 1 keV) are 1.0 and 1.7 x 10(exp -14) erg/sq cm/s, within the 0.1-2.5 keV bandpass of the instrument (99% confidence limits). This is more than an order of magnitude below the tentative detection level (for GR 290) and limits (for four other similar stars) obtained from archival Einstein data in 1991. The corresponding limits on coronal electron density are comparable with those implied if cyclotron emission is not responsible for any of the features observed in the optical spectra of magnetic white dwarfs. X-ray data currently provide no evidence for the existence of coronae around these stars. A final long observation (25,000 sec of GD 356) is scheduled for later this year on ROSAT, along with coordinated Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) observations.

Cavallo, Rob↗
NASA NTRS1996

Helium and Neon in Comets

Two comets were observed with EUVE in late 1994. Both comet Mueller and comet Borrelly are short-period comets having well established orbital elements and accurate ephemerides. Spectra of 40 ksec were taken of each. No evidence for emission lines from either Helium or Neon was detected. We calculated limits on the production rates of these atoms (relative to solar) assuming a standard isotropic outflow model, with a gas streaming speed of 1 km/s. The 3-sigma (99.7% confidence) limits (1/100,000 for He, 0.8 for Ne) are based on a conservative estimate of the noise in the EUVE spectra. They are also weakly dependent on the precise pointing and tracking of the EUVE field of view relative to the comet during the integrations. These limits are consistent with ice formation temperatures T greater than or equal to 30 K, as judged from the gas trapping experiments of Bar-Nun. For comparison, the solar abundances of these elements are He/O = 110, Ne/O = 1/16. Neither limit was as constraining as we had initially hoped, mainly because comets Mueller and Borrelly were intrinsically less active than anticipated.

Jewitt, David↗
NASA NTRS1985

Archival searches for optical counterparts to gamma ray bursters

The results of searches of about 1500 h of archival astronomical plates, taken with a variety of instruments at two observatories are reported. The areas of the sky photographed coincided with the positions of ten recently observed gamma ray bursts. The limiting magnitudes of the plates would in most cases have allowed the detection of the type of optical transients recently observed to be associated with gamma-bursters, although no such transients were found. A simple statistical argument is presented which allows confidence limits to be set for the repetition rates of bursters using these or other archival data.

Atteia, J.-L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Determination of Rolling-Element Fatigue Life From Computer Generated Bearing Tests

Two types of rolling-element bearings representing radial loaded and thrust loaded bearings were used for this study. Three hundred forty (340) virtual bearing sets totaling 31400 bearings were randomly assembled and tested by Monte Carlo (random) number generation. The Monte Carlo results were compared with endurance data from 51 bearing sets comprising 5321 bearings. A simple algebraic relation was established for the upper and lower L(sub 10) life limits as function of number of bearings failed for any bearing geometry. There is a fifty percent (50 percent) probability that the resultant bearing life will be less than that calculated. The maximum and minimum variation between the bearing resultant life and the calculated life correlate with the 90-percent confidence limits for a Weibull slope of 1.5. The calculated lives for bearings using a load-life exponent p of 4 for ball bearings and 5 for roller bearings correlated with the Monte Carlo generated bearing lives and the bearing data. STLE life factors for bearing steel and processing provide a reasonable accounting for differences between bearing life data and calculated life. Variations in Weibull slope from the Monte Carlo testing and bearing data correlated. There was excellent agreement between percent of individual components failed from Monte Carlo simulation and that predicted.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Abundance recovery error analysis using simulated AVIRIS data

Measurement noise and imperfect atmospheric correction translate directly into errors in the determination of the surficial abundance of materials from imaging spectrometer data. The effects of errors on abundance recovery were investigated previously using Monte Carlo simulation methods by Sabol et. al. The drawback of the Monte Carlo approach is that thousands of trials are needed to develop good statistics on the probable error in abundance recovery. This computational burden invariably limits the number of scenarios of interest that can practically be investigated. A more efficient approach is based on covariance analysis. The covariance analysis approach expresses errors in abundance as a function of noise in the spectral measurements and provides a closed form result eliminating the need for multiple trials. Monte Carlo simulation and covariance analysis are used to predict confidence limits for abundance recovery for a scenario which is modeled as being derived from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS).

Stoner, William W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Unexpectedly Bright Comet C-2012 F6 (Lemmon) Unveiled at Near-Infrared Wavelengths

We acquired near-infrared spectra of the Oort cloud comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) at three different heliocentric distances (R h) during the comet's 2013 perihelion passage, providing a comprehensive measure of the outgassing behavior of parent volatiles and cosmogonic indicators. Our observations were performed pre-perihelion at R h = 1.2 AU with CRIRES (on 2013 February 2 and 4), and post-perihelion at R h = 0.75 AU with CSHELL (on March 31 and April 1) and R h = 1.74 AU with NIRSPEC (on June 20). We detected 10 volatile species (H2O, OH* prompt emission, C2H6, CH3OH, H2CO, HCN, CO, CH4, NH3, and NH2), and obtained upper limits for two others (C2H2 and HDO). One-dimensional spatial profiles displayed different distributions for some volatiles, confirming either the existence of polar and apolar ices, or of chemically distinct active vents in the nucleus. The ortho-para ratio for water was 3.31 +/- 0.33 (weighted mean of CRIRES and NIRSPEC results), implying a spin temperature >37 K at the 95% confidence limit. Our (3σ) upper limit for HDO corresponds to D/H < 2.45 × 10-3 (i.e., <16 Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water, VSMOW). At R h = 1.2 AU (CRIRES), the production rate for water was Q(H2O) = 1.9 +/- 0.1 × 1029 s-1 and its rotational temperature was T rot ~ 69 K. At R h = 0.75 AU (CSHELL), we measured Q(H2O) = 4.6 +/- 0.6 × 1029 s-1 and T rot = 80 K on March 31, and 6.6 +/- 0.9 × 1029 s-1 and T rot = 100 K on April 1. At R h = 1.74 AU (NIRSPEC), we obtained Q(H2O) = 1.1 +/- 0.1 × 1029 s-1 and T rot ~ 50 K. The measured volatile abundance ratios classify comet C/2012 F6 as rather depleted in C2H6 and CH3OH, while HCN, CH4, and CO displayed abundances close to their median values found among comets. H2CO was the only volatile showing a relative enhancement. The relative paucity of C2H6 and CH3OH (with respect to H2O) suggests formation within warm regions of the nebula. However, the normal abundance of HCN and hypervolatiles CH4 and CO, and the enhancement of H2CO, may indicate a possible heterogeneous nucleus of comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon), possibly as a result of radial mixing within the protoplanetary disk

C/2012 F6↗
NASA NTRS1982

Optimal GSTDN/TDRSS bit error rate evaluation using limited sample sizes

Statistical studies of telemetry errors were made on data from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). Examination of frame sync words, as received at the ground station, indicated a wide spread of Bit Error Rates (BER) among stations. A study of the distribution of errors per station pass, however, showed that there was a tendency for the station software to add an even number of spurious errors to the count. A count of wild points in science data, rejecting drop-outs and other system errors, yielded an average random BER of 3.1 x 10 to the -6 with 99% confidence limits of 2.6 and 3.8 x 10 to the -6. The system errors are typically 5 to 100 times more frequent than the truly random errors.

Coffey, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Interpretation of the COBE FIRAS CMBR spectrum

The cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) spectrum measured by the Far-Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS) instrument on NASA's Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) is indistinguishable from a blackbody, implying stringent limits on energy release in the early universe later than the time t = 1 yr after the big bang. We compare the FIRAS data to previous precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background spectrum and find a reasonable agreement. We discuss the implications of the absolute value of y is less than 2.5 x 10(exp -5) and the absolute value of mu is less than 3.3 x 10(exp -4) 95% confidence limits found by Mather et al. (1994) on many processes occurring after t = 1 yr, such as explosive structure formation, reionization, and dissipation of small-scale density perturbations. We place limits on models with dust plus Population III stars, or evolving populations of IR galaxies, by directly comparing the Mather et al. spectrum to the model predictions.

Wright, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Constraints on Black Hole Spin in a Sample of Broad Iron Line AGN

We present a uniform X-ray spectral analysis of nine type-1 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have been previously found to harbor relativistically broadened iron emission lines. We show that the need for relativistic effects in the spectrum is robust even when one includes continuum "reflection" from the accretion disk. We then proceed to model these relativistic effects in order to constrain the spin of the supermassive black holes in these AGN. Our principal assumption, supported by recent simulations of geometrically-thin accretion disks, is that no iron line emission (or any associated Xray reflection features) can originate from the disk within the innermost stable circular orbit. Under this assumption, which tends to lead to constraints in the form of lower limits on the spin parameter, we obtain non-trivial spin constraints on five AGN. The spin parameters of these sources range from moderate (a approximates 0.6) to high (a > 0.96). Our results allow, for the first time, an observational constraint on the spin distribution function of local supermassive black holes. Parameterizing this as a power-law in dimensionless spin parameter (f(a) varies as absolute value of (a) exp zeta), we present the probability distribution for zeta implied by our results. Our results suggest 90% and 95% confidence limits of zeta > -0.09 and zeta > -0.3 respectively.

Brenneman, Laura W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Intelligent System Development Using a Rough Sets Methodology

The purpose of this research was to examine the potential of the rough sets technique for developing intelligent models of complex systems from limited information. Rough sets a simple but promising technology to extract easily understood rules from data. The rough set methodology has been shown to perform well when used with a large set of exemplars, but its performance with sparse data sets is less certain. The difficulty is that rules will be developed based on just a few examples, each of which might have a large amount of noise associated with them. The question then becomes, what is the probability of a useful rule being developed from such limited information? One nice feature of rough sets is that in unusual situations, the technique can give an answer of 'I don't know'. That is, if a case arises that is different from the cases the rough set rules were developed on, the methodology can recognize this and alert human operators of it. It can also be trained to do this when the desired action is unknown because conflicting examples apply to the same set of inputs. This summer's project was to look at combining rough set theory with statistical theory to develop confidence limits in rules developed by rough sets. Often it is important not to make a certain type of mistake (e.g., false positives or false negatives), so the rules must be biased toward preventing a catastrophic error, rather than giving the most likely course of action. A method to determine the best course of action in the light of such constraints was examined. The resulting technique was tested with files containing electrical power line 'signatures' from the space shuttle and with decompression sickness data.

Anderson, Gray T.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Roles of divergent and rotational winds in the kinetic energy balance during intense convective activity

Contributions of divergent and rotational wind components to the synoptic-scale kinetic energy balance are described using rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals from NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability experiment. Two intense thunderstorm complexes occurred during the period. Energy budgets are described for the entire computational region and for limited volumes that enclosed storm-induced, upper level wind maxima located poleward of convection. Although small in magnitude, the divergent wind component played an important role in the cross-contour generation and horizontal flux divergence of kinetic energy. The importance of V(D) appears directly related to the presence and intensity of convection. Although K(D) usually comprised less than 10 percent of the total kinetic energy content, generation of kinetic energy by V(D) was a major factor in the creation of upper-level wind maxima to the north of the storm complexes. Omission of the divergent wind apparently would lead to serious misrepresentations of the energy balance. A random error analysis is presented to assess confidence limits in the various energy parameters.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Contributions of divergent and nondivergent winds to the kinetic energy balance of a severe storm environment

Divergent and rotational components of the synoptic scale kinetic energy balance are presented using rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals from the Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE 4). Two intense thunderstorm complexes occurred during the period. Energy budgets are described for the entire computational region and for limited volumes that enclose and move with the convection. Although small in magnitude, the divergent wind component played an important role in the cross contour generation and horizontal flux divergence of kinetic energy. The importance of V sub D appears directly to the presence and intensity of convection within the area. Although K sub D usually comprised less than 10 percent of the total kinetic energy content within the storm environment, as much as 87 percent of the total horizontal flux divergence and 68 percent of the total cross contour generation was due to the divergent component in the upper atmosphere. Generation of kinetic energy by the divergent component appears to be a major factor in the creation of an upper level wind maximum on the poleward side of one of the complexes. A random error analysis is presented to assess confidence limits in the various energy parameters.

Browning, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A degree scale anisotropy measurement of the cosmic microwave background near the star Gamma Ursae Minoris

Results from a search for anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) are presented from the third flight of the Millimeter-wave Anisotropy experiment. The CMB observation occurred over 1.37 hours and covered a 6.24 sq deg area of the sky where very little foreground emission is expected. Significant correlated structure is observed at 6 and 9/cm. At 12/cm we place an upper limit on the structure. The relative amplitudes at 6, 9, and 12/cm are consistent with a CMB spectrum. The spectrum of the structure is inconsistent with thermal emission from known forms of interstellar dust. Synchrotron and free-free emission would both require unusually flat spectral indices at cm wavelengths in order to account for the amplitude of the observed structure. Although known systematic errors are not expected to contribute significantly to any of the three optical channels, excess sidelobe contamination cannot be definitively ruled out. If all the structure is attributed to CMB anisotropy, a value of the weighted rms of the 6 and 9/cm channels of Delta T/T(CMB) = 4.7 +/- 0.8 x 10 exp -5 (+/- 1 sigma) was measured. If the CMB anisotropy is assumed to have a Gaussian autocorrelation function with a coherence angle of 25 arcmin, then the most probable value is Delta T/T(CMB) = 4.2 +1.7 or -1.1 x 10 exp -5, where the +/- refers to the 95 percent confidence limits.

Gundersen, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗