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Financial-technical co-design for capital-intensive, resource-responsive energy systems

Because of their capital-intensive operation, wind energy systems that are competitive in terms of the cost of the energy that they produce lead to risk-reward trade-offs that make their business cases less favorable than those of conventional energy generation technologies. However, wind energy systems tend to be designed to maximize energy production or minimize cost of energy rather than to maximize their business cases. In this work, we attempt to exploit designs specifically tailored to business cases. We develop a novel framework for analyzing energy systems that ties their design variables to monthly operating incomes using simple models and historical hourly market and resource data. Using this approach, we demonstrate that for a wind site with abundant wind resource in the California Independent System Operator market, we can control the trade-off between mean and 5th percentile monthly returns by choosing the specific power of the turbine at a fixed modeled initial capital cost. Our framework gives a measure of the risk-reward spectrum of energy generation assets that could be built at a given site with respect to the sub-annual resource/market variation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft

Independent Market Study: Commercial Hypersonic Transportation

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft

Insights from FEED studies for retrofitting existing fossil power plants with carbon capture technology

Recent United States Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored front-end engineering design (FEED) studies for retrofitting existing fossil-fueled power plants with state-of-the-art carbon capture technology contain previously overlooked real-world design considerations for near-term deployment of carbon capture. Insights from examining seven recently published FEED study reports are summarized in this paper. This includes a discussion of the design, performance, and cost implications associated with (1) location-specific considerations such as water availability, land availability, and accessibility; (2) host-plant-specific factors such as flue gas specifications, allowable degree of integration between the capture system and host plant, and operational mode; and (3) miscellaneous factors such as market conditions, permitting requirements, and business case incentives. In conclusion, this manuscript highlights (1) water availability as a key design and cost driver, with host plant steam extraction increasing capture system cooling water availability, (2) modularization and constructability impacts on the number of capture trains, (3) the impacts of host plant operational mode and capacity factor on the business case for installing capture, and (4) the merit of continued research, development, and demonstration efforts addressing steam extraction, host plant tie-in at the stack, solvent reclamation and air emissions control.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Gender Diversity in Heliophysics

Science is conducted by people. When those people do not feel safe in their workplace, they will struggle to produce quality science. The American scientific community has traditionally been dominated by cisgender white men–cisgender meaning that their gender aligns with the one assigned to them at birth. Individuals who are not part of this dominant demographic group have historically been excluded from scientific debate. However, the demographic landscape is changing rapidly [e.g., Jones (2022)], and organizations must ensure early career scientists of all identities feel accepted so they can achieve their goals in the field. Heliophysics describes the confluence and interaction of historically delineated scientific disciplines, including plasma, solar, and space physics. The scientific architecture of our field is founded on collaboration between people with diverse interests, backgrounds, skill sets, and ways of approaching problems. It should follow that the cohort of heliophysicists is at least as diverse as our research problems. A framing often referred to as “the business case” for diversity holds that perspectives different than our own enrich the ways in which we solve problems and communicates the positive outcomes for diverse working groups Starck et al. (2021). However, this rationale is insufficient in scope and uncompassionate in motivation; the safety of marginalized individuals is just as important as the achievements of a group. From the expectations that marginalized people outperform in order to prove themselves to the tokenization of their inclusion in an otherwise normative space, the “business case” for diversity is often harmful to historically marginalized individuals Haacker et al. (2022). The primary motivation for a diverse constituency of heliophysicists ought to be equity. Only by accepting the authentic selves of our fellow heliophysicists can we create an environment in which they have the mental and emotional safety necessary to do their best work. This white paper focuses on a particular axis of identity which the authors believe lacks visibility within heliophysics: gender expansion. It begins with definitions, explains the current landscape, and suggests actions toward a better future. The authors seek to shed light on these issues so that we can work together as a community to create a more inclusive, safe, and welcoming space for people of all identities.

M. Kenny

Feasibility of a Networked Air Traffic Infrastructure Validation Environment for Advanced NextGen Concepts

Abstract-Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) applications reliant upon aircraft data links such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) offer a sweeping modernization of the National Airspace System (NAS), but the aviation stakeholder community has not yet established a positive business case for equipage and message content standards remain in flux. It is necessary to transition promising Air Traffic Management (ATM) Concepts of Operations (ConOps) from simulation environments to full-scale flight tests in order to validate user benefits and solidify message standards. However, flight tests are prohibitively expensive and message standards for Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) systems cannot support many advanced ConOps. It is therefore proposed to simulate future aircraft surveillance and communications equipage and employ an existing commercial data link to exchange data during dedicated flight tests. This capability, referred to as the Networked Air Traffic Infrastructure Validation Environment (NATIVE), would emulate aircraft data links such as ADS-B using in-flight Internet and easily-installed test equipment. By utilizing low-cost equipment that is easy to install and certify for testing, advanced ATM ConOps can be validated, message content standards can be solidified, and new standards can be established through full-scale flight trials without necessary or expensive equipage or extensive flight test preparation. This paper presents results of a feasibility study of the NATIVE concept. To determine requirements, six NATIVE design configurations were developed for two NASA ConOps that rely on ADS-B. The performance characteristics of three existing in-flight Internet services were investigated to determine whether performance is adequate to support the concept. Next, a study of requisite hardware and software was conducted to examine whether and how the NATIVE concept might be realized. Finally, to determine a business case, economic factors were evaluated and a preliminary cost-benefit analysis was performed.

McCormack, Michael J.

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Futures of Deep Space Exploration, Commercialization, and Colonization: The Frontiers of the Responsibly Imaginable

The reusable rocket, printing, automation engendered reductions in space access costs are rapidly opening up deep space, beyond GEO, to commercialization. Report addresses the related issues, technologies, approaches, opportunities for the key requirement, closed business cases, in the context of the longer than usual decade or less business outlook. Report also addresses the requirements and approaches, options for humans in deep space on the way to colonization. Martian colonization has moved from extremely difficult to increasingly feasible with regard to radiation, cost, and safety, in just a few years, due to space access cost reductions.

Dennis M Bushnell

Surprising Results from Large Crowds Using Micro-Purchase Challenges - Using Contests on Freelancing Communities to Source Innovative, Impactful and Cost-Effective Solutions

Our world is more connected than ever before. The new digital economy is empowering platforms and crowds to become a progressively strategic way for organizations to innovate ahead of their competition. Existing research shows the effectiveness and quality of solutions crowdsourcing yields, yet few organizations genuinely understand it nor are leveraging those solutions to unlock the full range of benefits. Moreover, early adopters often face structural and financial barriers towards evangelizing digital platforms at scale within their organizations. NASA is an exception - being an advocate of the field since 2010, it has paved the path for large organizations to follow. An empirical analysis is conducted on NASA's Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation (CoECI) micro-purchase challenges on a crowd-based platform to assess the cost-savings, quality of work, time for work turnaround and brand effects of using this problem-solving mechanism. The results proved to provide a tangible impact on all four parameters. As such, micro-purchases could become a compelling entry-point for organizations who are willing to experiment and subsequently build a convincing business case to present to stakeholders. The paper concludes with NASA's learnings, supplemented by literature, on how to redesign business processes, change conventional thinking and create an organization that will transform its future with crowds.

Tang, Sarah

Commercial Space In The Age Of “New Space”, Reusable Rockets and The Ongoing Tech Revolutions

A plethora of converging frontier technologies are reducing the costs of space access and utilization, enabling major growth going forward in commercial space, both in orbits up to Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) and in “Deep Space” beyond GEO. This paper reviews these frontier technologies and enabling technological approaches, the landscape of enabled emerging commercial applications, their issues, and in some cases their competition and outlook, along with the attendant “hard problems”. Major issues include mitigation of the inspace human health issues, reliability and safety, details regarding on body space resources, and a closed competitive and timely business case.

Bushnell, Dennis M

Making the Case for Reusable Booster Systems: The Operations Perspective

Presentation to the Aeronautics Space Engineering Board National Research Council Reusable Booster System: Review and Assessment Committee. Addresses: the criteria and assumptions used in the formulation of current RBS plans; the methodologies used in the current cost estimates for RBS; the modeling methodology used to frame the business case for an RBS capability including: the data used in the analysis, the models' robustness if new data become available, and the impact of unclassified government data that was previously unavailable and which will be supplied by the USAF; the technical maturity of key elements critical to RBS implementation and the ability of current technology development plans to meet technical readiness milestones.

reusable launch vehicle

NASA Alternate Access to Station Service Concept

The evolving nature of the NASA space enterprise compels the agency to develop new and innovative space systems concepts. NASA, working with increasingly strained budgets and a declining manpower base, is attempting to transform from operational activities to procurement of commercial services. NASA's current generation reusable launch vehicle, the Shuttle, is in transition from a government owned and operated entity to a commercial venture to reduce the civil servant necessities for that program. NASA foresees its second generation launch vehicles being designed and operated by industry for commercial and government services. The "service" concept is a pioneering effort by NASA. The purpose the "service" is not only to reduce the civil servant overhead but will free up government resources for further research - and enable industry to develop a space business case so that industry can sustain itself beyond government programs. In addition, NASA desires a decreased responsibility thereby decreasing liability. The Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) program is implementing NASA's Space Launch Initiative (SLI) to enable industry to develop the launch vehicles of the future. The Alternate Access to Station (AAS) project office within this program is chartered with enabling industry to demonstrate an alternate access capability for the International Space Station (ISS). The project will not accomplish this by traditional government procurement methods, not by integrating the space system within the project office, or by providing the only source of business for the new capability. The project funds will ultimately be used to purchase a service to take re-supply cargo to the ISS, much the same as any business might purchase a service from FedEx to deliver a package to its customer. In the near term, the project will fund risk mitigation efforts for enabling technologies. AAS is in some ways a precursor to the 2nd Generation RLV. By accomplishing ISS resupply with existing technologies, not only will a new category of autonomous vehicles deliver cargo, but a commercial business base will be incubated that will improve the likelihood of commercial convergence with the next generation of RLVs. Traditional paradigms in government management and acquisition philosophy are being challenged in order to bring about the objective of the AAS project. The phased procurement approach is proving to be the most questionable aspect to date. This work addresses the fresh approach AAS is adopting in management and procurement through a study of the AAS history, current solutions, key technologies, procurement complications, and an incremental forward plan leading to the purchase of a service to deliver goods to ISS. Included in this work is a discussion of the Commercial Space Act of 1998 and how it affects government purchase of space launch and space vehicle services. Industry should find these topics pertinent to their current state of business.

Bailey, Michelle D.

Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

NASA Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft Technology for Public Services – A White Paper

History has shown that our personal life is highly dependent on the technology that people have developed. A strategic scan of the aerospace environment at the beginning of the 21st century strongly suggests that the world might be approaching a new age of airpower—the era of electrified/hybrid aircraft propulsion. Undeniably, starting from the Montgolfier Brothers balloon flight in 1783, to the Wright Brothers piston engine flight in 1903, and the jet engine of the 1960s, or the space age of today, one can say that leaps in propulsion technology have marked the different ages of human flight. The technological advancements, brought at the beginning of 21st century by the revolution in data exchange, computational power, sensors, wireless communication, internet, and autonomy, contributed to the vision of this new age of propulsion we are approaching. Historically, conventional vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft have been equipped with propulsion units relying on complex internal combustion machines (turbines, piston engines, for example), and complex mechanical arrangements (gearboxes, shafts, variable pitch propeller). By contrast, electric VTOL aircraft (eVTOL)1 rely on simpler propulsion units (electric motors and in some cases fixed-pitch propellers). This promotes redundancy and improves tolerance to failures, in turn improving safety. The use of simpler electric propulsion units should also allow significant acquisition and operating cost reductions. Whether full-electric (relying solely on batteries) or hybrid-electric (relying on a combination of batteries, fuel-powered engines, and generators.), eVTOLs are also expected to generate less noise and air pollution than conventional aircraft with similar payloads. According to the 2019 Annual Review of IATA (International Air Transport Association) [ref.1], due to an expected increase in air transport traffic by 5% every year and a doubling of air transport passenger numbers to 8.2 billion by 2037 significant challenges are posed to the aviation industry. Furthermore, this report does not factor in the expected demand for short-range (intra-city) air transportation, which is in development and yet to be operational. The increased demand to fly creates a responsibility to expand in a sustainable manner and an endeavor to develop more environmentally-friendly aircraft. eVTOL aircraft, either piloted or autonomous, is gathering considerable interest worldwide. Modern and novel full-electric or hybrid-electric eVTOL configurations enable a new paradigm shift in air transportation as the aviation industry remains committed to its goals of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards and cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. While electric power has been used for decades, recent developments in mobile electric/hybrid propulsion coupled with advanced materials and autonomous systems may create the possibility to transition into the next age of air mobility propelled by electric/hybrid VTOL aircraft technology. Although eVTOL aircraft might seem like an incremental improvement or even a counterintuitive regression with regard to past VTOL development, it has in fact the potential to transform air mobility across a wide range of government applications. Previous transformations in aviation generated dramatic leaps in performance, but the cost was commensurate with performance, limiting quantity produced. This next age appears to take a different approach. Performance may not increase, but at this moment technology is poised for future urban mobility that will spawn commercial passenger drone services, that is, autonomous (pilotless) air taxis and thereby add a new dimension to the urban transportation mix of the future [ref. 2]. Advances in electric propulsion, autonomous flight technology, and 5G communication networks will enable this fast new-growing market to become a reality. It is now time to envision the introduction of electric/hybrid eVTOL aircraft for Public Services2. We believe that in the next decades eVTOL aircraft will have the potential to become an essential tool to Public Service agencies around the world in applications such as firefighting, public safety, search and rescue, disaster relief and law enforcement. This is due to several major factors. • First, with the increasing popularity of small, unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) or drones, many companies today are focusing on the development of passenger UAVs designed to accommodate up to five passengers or equivalent cargo payload. Many such configurations are electric or hybrid-electric designs with VTOL capabilities. Several of these projects have started a flight test program and many more are expected to be in the experimental and development phase in 2020. Such revolutionary vehicles could be in commercial operations by 2030. These eVTOL systems could be ready for selected Public Services missions even sooner. • Second, although these advanced eVTOL vehicles under development still need access to fuel (hybrid) and/or electric charging capability, they can take off and land from almost anywhere. Therefore, such vehicles, both manned and unmanned can be successfully integrated for the critical missions of the Public Services with extra deployment flexibilities. • Third, advancement in electric propulsion systems in the automotive industry together with NASA’s leading efforts in electrification of aircraft propulsion systems, FAA’s ongoing active eVTOL certification programs, and EASA’s proposed framework for the certification of electric/hybrid small category VTOL aircraft in Europe [ref. 3] will help accelerate industry electric propulsion system development and integration. • Finally, eVTOL vehicles could be deployed for Public Services sooner than air taxi or other commercial applications, since Public Services missions may be more easily approved based on specific mission criteria, localized airworthiness authority for public-use aircraft3, and are normally operating under centralized airspace management and control by the theater command. Moreover, public perception and acceptance are generally less of a concern when operations save lives and benefit the wider community. The prioritized introduction of eVTOL aircraft in Public Services is ambitious, but we believe it is achievable in the coming decades if fundamental enablers (people and technologies) are engaged in defining the objectives and needs of these missions. The revolution that is currently taking place in eVTOL aircraft represents an unprecedented opportunity to develop a safer, more affordable, more available and more environmentally friendly future of vertical flight. To ensure that these novel aircraft meet the future expectations of Public Services, it is essential to take a collaborative and multi-disciplinary approach to their development, across engineering disciplines, policy-making, program management, business case development, manufacturing, and flight demonstrations. It should be noted that the term eVTOL (in the near term) used throughout this publication implies aircraft capable of transporting up to 5 persons which may or may not include a pilot if operated fully autonomously, assuming an average of 200 pounds (91 kg) per person or equivalent payload and a range up to 60 miles plus a suitable reserve. Hybrid or hydrogen powered eVTOLs would have greater range. For example, a “3-seat” eVTOL aircraft may only be able to carry two fully equipped firemen, and payload capacity is more relevant when used for the supply mission. Moreover, this paper concentrates on the “last-mile” solutions with a deployment time of no more than 6 hours. Although not specifically discussed in this document, it is understood that the future of Transformative Vertical Flight in general and Public Services, in particular, will also involve smaller UAVs that will undoubtedly play a crucial role in future aerial operations. For example, smaller unmanned aircraft may be used to dispatch medical supplies, portable filtration systems or perform the Search task of future Search and Rescue (SAR) operations. Close collaboration between the aircraft industry, the Civil Aviation Authorities (CAA), e.g., Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Transport Canada Civil Aviation (TCCA) and the Department of Defense (DoD) certifiers, will help identify Public Services requirements, define expectations and limit development cost and timescales. Take the US Air Force Agility Prime as an example, the majority of the eVTOL application opportunities and mission elements identified are in line with the NASA TVF WG-4 objectives and use cases. Together, it forms a strong partnership to accelerate the development, certification, and practical deployment for public service missions. The US Air Force Agility Prime has been a collaboration partner on this white paper, and provided valuable input and recommendations. Most of the eVTOL public service mission elements discussed in this paper and additional use cases envisioned by the NASA TVF WG-4 team are shared by the Agility Prime program. The focus and efforts of the Agility Prime in product and system development, industry and government partnership, accelerated certifications as well as early test and deployment are totally in sync with the path forward recommended by this white paper. This kind of collaboration and partnership will help enable the practical use of the eVTOL for public service missions, benefit the eVTOL public acceptance, and accelerate the eVTOL industry revolution.

Johnny T. Doo

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan

Considerations for Introducing Artificial Intelligence into Nuclear Power Plants

Advanced computational tools and techniques such as artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) can transform the nuclear power industry. This is necessary given that the economic viability of the existing fleet is in jeopardy and its labor-centric approach to operations and maintenance. Currently, AI/ML research is being undertaken for reactor system design and analysis including fault and accident prognosis, nuclear risk analysis such as plant safety and security evaluation, and plant operations and maintenance including predictive maintenance. Applications include both existing and advanced reactor technologies with the aim of improving operational and business efficiencies. Most every aspect of the organization can benefit, from instrumentation and control, to work planning, to human-machine interactions and business management. AI/ML in nuclear can simplify complex problems and produce more effective decision-making. Nonetheless, careful consideration must be given to the implementation of an AI/ML initiative. The aims of this research are to 1) review barriers to AI/ML adoption within the nuclear power industry, and 2) suggest potential solutions. These barriers are organized along five distinct categories (Figure 1) that are interconnected. The first are historical barriers that track the industry’s development over the decades including worldwide nuclear events that shaped public perceptions. The resulting federal scrutiny and intense safety culture that emerged are discussed. Technical barriers to AI/ML adoption are considerable, and include data privacy concerns, data governance, and the current lack of AI/ML expert knowledge at the plants. The main business case barrier remains cost, but an absence of an industry-wide vision and wide-scale adoption also produces reluctance. Stakeholder readiness is reviewed with special attention given to regulatory readiness. The 5-year strategic plan for AI readiness recently published by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is highlighted. Last, adoption barriers at the user level are addressed including the importance of user experience and explainable AI. The AI adoption barriers described here are inter-related and ideally should be addressed in a holistic fashion.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND