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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Stellar mass as a galaxy cluster mass proxy: application to the Dark Energy Survey redMaPPer clusters

Abstract We introduce a galaxy cluster mass observable, μ⋆, based on the stellar masses of cluster members, and we present results for the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 (Y1) observations. Stellar masses are computed using a Bayesian model averaging method, and are validated for DES data using simulations and COSMOS data. We show that μ⋆ works as a promising mass proxy by comparing our predictions to X-ray measurements. We measure the X-ray temperature–μ⋆ relation for a total of 129 clusters matched between the wide-field DES Y1 redMaPPer catalogue and Chandra and XMM archival observations, spanning the redshift range 0.1 < $z$ < 0.7. For a scaling relation that is linear in logarithmic space, we find a slope of α = 0.488 ± 0.043 and a scatter in the X-ray temperature at fixed μ⋆ of $\sigma _{{\rm ln} T_\mathrm{ X}|\mu _\star }= 0.266^{+0.019}_{-0.020}$ for the joint sample. By using the halo mass scaling relations of the X-ray temperature from the Weighing the Giants program, we further derive the μ⋆-conditioned scatter in mass, finding $\sigma _{{\rm ln} M|\mu _\star }= 0.26^{+ 0.15}_{- 0.10}$. These results are competitive with well-established cluster mass proxies used for cosmological analyses, showing that μ⋆ can be used as a reliable and physically motivated mass proxy to derive cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accessing the gluon momentum fraction of nucleons through the gradient flow

We calculate the gluon momentum fraction of the nucleon using lattice QCD, with a nonperturbative renormalization technique based on the gradient flow. The gluon momentum fraction is determined on a single Wilson-clover ensemble using 𝑁 𝑓 =2 +1 flavors with pion mass 358 MeV and lattice spacing 0.094 fm. We employ the variational method to reduce excited-state contamination and apply the distillation framework to ensure a large operator basis. To reduce systematic uncertainties, we apply Bayesian model averaging to all fit procedures. We apply matching coefficients to the flow-time dependent lattice results to recover the gluon momentum fraction in the $\overline{MS}$-scheme at 2 GeV. Our final result is ⟨𝑥⟩ 𝑔 ⁢(𝜇 =2 GeV) =0.482⁢(35), where we quote only statistical uncertainties.

Lattice QCD↗
DOE OSTI2023

Light-quark connected intermediate-window contributions to the muon 𝑔 − 2 hadronic vacuum polarization from lattice QCD

We present a lattice-QCD calculation of the light-quark connected contribution to window observables associated with the leading-order hadronic vacuum polarization contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a^{HVP,LO}_μ$. We employ the MILC Collaboration’s isospin-symmetric QCD gauge-field ensembles, which contain four flavors of dynamical highly improved staggered quarks with four lattice spacings between $a ≈ 0.06-0.15$ fm and close-to-physical quark masses. We consider several effective-field-theory-based schemes for finite volume and other lattice corrections and combine the results via Bayesian model averaging to obtain robust estimates of the associated systematic uncertainties. After unblinding, our final results for the intermediate and "W2" windows are $a^{U,W}_μ$(conn) = 206.6(1.0) x 10 -10 and $a^{U,W2}_μ$ (conn) = 100.7(3.2) x 10 -10 , respectively

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hadronic vacuum polarization for the muon 𝑔 − 2 from lattice QCD: Complete short and intermediate windows

We present complete results for the hadronic vacuum polarization (HVP) contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment 𝑎 𝜇 in the short- and intermediate-distance window regions, which account for roughly 10% and 35% of the total HVP contribution to 𝑎 𝜇 , respectively. In particular, we perform lattice-QCD calculations for the isospin-symmetric connected and disconnected contributions, as well as corrections due to strong-isospin breaking. For the short-distance window observables, we investigate the so-called log-enhancement effects as well as the significant oscillations associated with staggered quarks in this region. For the dominant, isospin-symmetric light-quark-connected contribution, we obtain 𝑎$^{𝑙⁢𝑙,SD}_{𝜇⁡}$(conn) = 48.139⁢(11) stat ⁢(91) syst ⁢[92] total × 10 −10 and 𝑎$^{𝑙⁢𝑙,W}_{𝜇}$⁡(conn) = 206.90⁢(14) stat ⁢(61) syst ⁢[63] total × 10 −10 . We use Bayesian model averaging to fully estimate the covariance matrix between the individual contributions. Our determinations of the complete window contributions are 𝑎$^{SD}_{𝜇}$ = 69.05⁢(1) stat⁢ (21) syst ⁢[21] total × 10 −10 and 𝑎$^{W}_{𝜇}$ = 236.45⁢(17) stat⁢ (83) syst ⁢[85] total × 10 −10 . This work is part of our ongoing effort to compute all contributions to HVP with an overall uncertainty at the few-permille level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low Energy Analysis of NuclEar Reactions v0.0.1

This is a lightweight, easy to use Python analysis package for analyzing public low-energy nuclear reaction data relevant to understanding basic nuclear processes, often of relevance to Solar Fusion, to improve our theoretical understanding of them, and enable connections with input from lattice QCD. It performs the analysis in a Bayesian Framework and supports Bayesian Model Averaging to provide a robust uncertainty quantification.

Walker-Loud, André↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operations (SUMMER-GO): Project Final Report

The Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operation (SUMMER-GO) project was recently completed through a collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Maxar, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the University of Texas at Dallas, the University of California Berkeley, and the University of Colorado Boulder. The project made significant advances in probabilistic solar power forecasting, both through the development of Bayesian model averaging methods for ensemble forecasting and in bringing these and other advancements into practice with Maxar's delivery of operational forecasts to ERCOT. In addition to creating more reliable solar power forecasts, the project developed methods for their utilization in power system operations. These include the development of risk-aware unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithms and methods to reformulate probabilistic forecasts to be used in these power system operational models. Dynamic power system reserve methods were also developed, which have been shown in silico to create economic savings and reliability improvements on an ERCOT-like system as well as financial savings in the ERCOT system through more granular consideration of the uncertainty associated with solar power forecasts. Finally, a situational awareness tool to help grid operators better understand solar power forecast uncertainty in daily operations was developed and extensively vetted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Investigations of 82Se Using Three Shell Model Hamiltonians

Neutrinoless double-beta decay is considered one of the most promising processes that would help clarify some of the symmetry-breaking problems in our understanding of the observable universe. Recent studies of neutrinoless double-beta decay matrix elements have employed statistical approaches based on modified shell model effective Hamiltonians for 48Ca (Phys. Rev. C 106, 054302 (2022)) and 136Xe (Phys. Rev. C 107, 045501 (2023)). The analyses rely on inducing perturbations in the starting effective Hamiltonians to observe the behavior of a wide range of observables, besides the 0νββ) NME, that are compared with experimental data. Following a Bayesian model averaging approach, the range of probable values for the neutrinoless double-beta decay matrix elements is presented. In this paper, we present a similar study for 82Se, which is described in the same model space as 76Ge that is under experimental observation. Due to its faster calculation time compared to 76Ge, 82Se can be used as an appropriate substitute in our complex statistical study. Using the calculations performed for the statistical analysis of the neutrinoless double-beta decay matrix elements, we also search for the correlations between the observables that we can compare to experimental data.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistical Analysis for the Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Matrix Element of 136Xe

Neutrinoless double beta decay nuclear matrix element (M0ν) for 136Xe was recently analyzed using a statistical approach (Phys. Rev. C 107, 045501 (2023)). In the analysis, three initial shell model effective Hamiltonians were randomly altered, and their results for 23 measured observables were used to infer credibility for the M0ν nuclear matrix element (NME) based on a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. In that analysis, a reasonable Gamow-Teller quenching factor of 0.7 was assumed for each starting effective Hamiltonian. Given that the result of the statistical analysis was sensible to this choice, we are here improving that analysis by assuming that the Gamow-Teller quenching factor is also randomly chosen within reasonabe limits for all three starting Hamiltonians. The outcomes are slightly higher expectation values and uncertainties for the M0ν NME.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hadronic vacuum polarization for the muon g - 2 from lattice QCD: Complete short and intermediate windows

We present complete results for the hadronic vacuum polarization (HVP) contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a μ in the short- and intermediate-distance window regions, which account for roughly 10% and 35% of the total HVP contribution to a μ , respectively. In particular, we perform lattice-QCD calculations for the isospin-symmetric connected and disconnected contributions, as well as corrections due to strong-isospin breaking. For the short-distance window observables, we investigate the so-called log-enhancement effects as well as the significant oscillations associated with staggered quarks in this region. For the dominant, isospin-symmetric light-quark-connected contribution, we obtain a μ l l , SD ( conn ) = 48.139 ( 11 ) stat ( 91 ) syst [ 92 ] total × 10 - 10 and a μ l l , W ( conn ) = 206.90 ( 14 ) stat ( 61 ) syst [ 63 ] total × 10 - 10 . We use Bayesian model averaging to fully estimate the covariance matrix between the individual contributions. Our determinations of the complete window contributions are a μ SD = 69.05 ( 1 ) stat ( 21 ) syst [ 21 ] total × 10 - 10 and a μ W = 236.45 ( 17 ) stat ( 83 ) syst [ 85 ] total × 10 - 10 . This work is part of our ongoing effort to compute all contributions to HVP with an overall uncertainty at the few-permille level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precision mass measurement of lightweight self-conjugate nucleus 80 Zr

Protons and neutrons in the atomic nucleus move in shells analogous to the electronic shell structures of atoms. The nuclear shell structure varies due to changes of the nuclear mean field with the number of neutrons N and protons Z, and these variations can be probed by measuring mass differences between nuclei. The N=Z=40 self-conjugate nucleus 80 Zr is of particular interest as its proton and neutron shell structures are expected to be very similar, and its ground state is highly deformed. Here, we provide evidence for the existence of a deformed double shell closure in 80Zr through high precision Penning trap mass measurements of 80-83 Zr. Our mass values show that 80Zr is significantly lighter, and thus more strongly bound than predicted. This can be attributed to the deformed shell closure at N=Z=40 and the large Wigner energy. A statistical Bayesian model mixing analysis employing several global nuclear mass models demonstrates difficulties with reproducing the observed mass anomaly using current theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined selection of the dynamic model and modeling error in nonlinear aeroelastic systems using Bayesian Inference

Here, we report a Bayesian framework for concurrent selection of physics-based models and (modeling) error models. We investigate the use of colored noise to capture the mismatch between the predictions of calibrated models and observational data that cannot be explained by measurement error alone within the context of Bayesian estimation for stochastic ordinary differential equations. Proposed models are characterized by the average data-fit, a measure of how well a model fits the measurements, and the model complexity measured using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The use of a more complex error models increases the average data-fit but also increases the complexity of the combined model, possibly over-fitting the data. Bayesian model selection is used to find the optimal physical model as well as the optimal error model. The optimal model is defined using the evidence, where the average data-fit is balanced by the complexity of the model. The effect of colored noise process is illustrated using a nonlinear aeroelastic oscillator representing a rigid NACA0012 airfoil undergoing limit cycle oscillations due to complex fluid–structure interactions. Several quasi-steady and unsteady aerodynamic models are proposed with colored noise or white noise for the model error. The use of colored noise improves the predictive capabilities of simpler models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers

Numerous algorithms have been developed to determine the source characteristics for an atmospheric release, e.g., (Bieringer et al., 2017). This study compares three models that have been applied to the data collected by the International Monitoring System operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Preparatory Commission to estimate source event parameters. Each model uses a different approach to estimate the parameters. A deterministic model uses a possible source region (PSR) approach (Ringbom et al., 2014) that is based on the correlation between predicted and measured sample values. An unnamed model developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (herein called BAYEST) uses a Bayesian formulation (Eslinger et al., 2019; Eslinger et al., 2020; Eslinger and Schrom, 2016). The FREAR model uses a different Bayesian formulation (De Meutter and Hoffman, 2020; De Meutter et al., 2021; Pieter De Meutter, 2021). The performance of the three source-location models is evaluated with 100 synthetic release cases for the single xenon isotope, 133 Xe. The release cases resulted in detections in a fictitious network with 120 noble gas samplers. All three source-location models use the same sampling data. The two Bayesian models yield more accurate location estimates than the deterministic PSR model, with FREAR having slightly better location performance than BAYEST. Samplers with collection periods of 3, 6, 8, 12, and 24-h were used. Results from BAYEST show that location accuracy improves with each reduction in sample collection length. The BAYEST model is slightly better for estimating the start time of the release. The PSR model has about the same spread in start times as the FREAR model, but the PSR results have a better average start time. The Bayesian source-location algorithms give more accurate results than the PSR approach, and provide release magnitude estimates, while the base PSR model does not estimate the release magnitude. This investigation demonstrates that a reasonably dense sampling grid will sometimes yield poor location and time estimates regardless of the model. The poor estimates generally coincide with cases where there is a much larger distance between the release point and the first detecting sampler than the average sampler spacing.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating hypersonic turbulence flow models with the HIFiRE-1 experiment using data-driven machine-learned models.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model’s input parameters. Here we develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model’s response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of hyperelastic constitutive models: the role of boundary conditions, search algorithms, and experimental variability

The calibration of hyperelastic constitutive models of soft tissue and tissue surrogates is often treated as an exercise in curve-fitting to the average experimental response, and many of the complicating factors such as experimental boundary conditions and data variability are ignored. Here, we focus on three questions that arise in this area: the ramifications of ignoring the experimental boundary conditions, the use of local optimizers, and the role of data variability. Using data from a uniaxial extension experiment on a tissue surrogate, we study how these three factors affect the calibration of isotropic hyperelastic constitutive models. Our results show that even with the simplest of constitutive models, it is necessary to look beyond a "good fit" to the average.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗