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Admissible Powertrain Alternatives for Heavy-Duty Fleets: A Case Study on Resiliency and Efficiency

Heavy-duty vehicles dominate global freight movement and primarily rely on fossil-derived diesel fuel. However, fluctuations in crude oil prices and evolving emissions regulations have prompted interest in alternative powertrains to enhance fleet energy resiliency. This study paired real-world operational data from a large commercial fleet with high-fidelity vehicle models to evaluate the potential for replacing diesel internal combustion engine (ICE) trucks with alternative powertrain architectures. The baseline vehicle for this analysis is a diesel-powered ICE truck. Alternatives include ICE trucks fueled by bio- and renewable diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG) or hydrogen (H 2 ), as well as plug-in hybrid (PHEV), fuel cell electric (FCEV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV). While most alternative powertrains resulted in some payload capacity loss, the overall fleetwide impact was negligible due to underutilized payload capacity for the specific fleet considered in this study. For sleeper cab trucks, CNG-powered trucks achieved the highest replacement potential, covering 85% of the fleet. In contrast, H 2 and BEV architectures could replace fewer than 10% and 1% of trucks, respectively. Day cab trucks, with shorter daily routes, showed higher replacement potential: 98% for CNG, 78% for H 2 , and 34% for BEVs. However, achieving full fleet replacement would still require significant operational changes such as route reassignment and enroute refueling, along with considerable improvements to onboard energy storage capacity. Additionally, the higher total cost of ownership (TCO) for alternative powertrains remains a key challenge. This study also evaluated lifecycle impacts across various fuel sources, both fossil and bio-derived. Bio-derived synthetic diesel fuels emerged as a practical option for diesel displacement without disrupting operations. Conversely, H 2 and electrified powertrains provide limited lifecycle impacts under the current energy scenario. This analysis highlights the complexity of replacing diesel ICE trucks with admissible alternatives while balancing fleet resiliency, operational demands, and emissions goals. These results reflect a US-based fleet’s duty cycles, payloads, GVWR allowances, and an assumption of depot-only refueling/recharging. Applicability to other fleets and regions may differ based on differing routing practices or technical features such as battery swapping.

BEV

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment of Current (2021) and Future (2035) Technologies

This study presents a cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across current (2021) and future (2035) technologies using the Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model with industry-vetted assumptions. Results vary across vehicle classes but point to common trends: today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer significant (10–60%) GHG emissions reduction compared to diesel internal combustion engine vehicles and are the lowest emissions option per ton-mile of cargo movement, followed by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (5–50% emissions reduction). Emissions savings depend largely on the duty cycle and fuel economy of the vehicle type. Future vehicle technology advancements result in comparable emission reductions associated with BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs. Weight-limited BEV trucks see less per-ton-mile emissions reduction due to the impact of battery weight on increased vehicle weight and reduced payload capacity. By 2035, improvements in vehicle efficiency can reduce emissions across all powertrains. However, very low levels of emissions require switching vehicles’ use-phase fuel/energy to low-carbon fuels and electricity. Renewable diesel, e-fuels, hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage or renewables, and use of low-carbon electricity can all achieve over 70% reduction in GHG emissions from the current day diesel-based internal combustion engine vehicle.

alternative fuels

Ambient and Initial Temperature Effects on Energy Consumption Rate Modeled in FASTSim

Ambient and initial temperatures significantly impact the energy consumption rate (ECR) of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to auxiliary loads and the temperature dependence of battery efficiency. This study introduces a streamlined, physics-based thermal modeling approach within the FASTSim tool that bridges the gap between oversimplified constant-load models and computationally expensive high-fidelity simulations. By employing a lumped thermal mass framework, the model captures fundamental energy balances and critical non-linear energy penalties while maintaining the computational efficiency required for expansive sensitivity studies. The simulations evaluated a compact BEV hatchback with a resistive heater over city (UDDS) and highway (HWFET) test cycles. Compared to a 22 degrees Celsius initial and ambient temperature baseline, a -7 degrees Celsius initial/ambient temperature resulted in a 221% increase in the ECR for the city cycle and a 100% increase for the highway cycle. Conversely, a 45 degrees Celsius initial / 40 degrees Celsius ambient temperature resulted in a 40% increase for UDDS and an 18% increase for HWFET. These results demonstrate that while cold conditions impose the most severe energy penalties due to resistive heating, the impact is consistently more pronounced in city driving where auxiliary loads represent a larger proportion of total energy. This lightweight yet robust framework enables researchers to rapidly quantify BEV thermal sensitivity across diverse climates without the need for high-overhead simulation environments.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

OR-AGENT framework – Architecting electrified heavy-duty drayage applications

The widespread adoption of zero-emission vehicles in heavy-duty (HD) commercial freight transportation faces considerable technoeconomic challenges. For heavy-duty trucks, ensuring high uptime, cost parity with diesel, and safety standards is especially critical as these vehicles operate over long distances with heavy loads, where any downtime or off-nominal behaviors significantly impacts logistics, productivity, and the total cost of ownership. Unlike traditional diesel refueling, BEV charging infrastructure must be co-optimized with vehicle deployment, operational demands, and grid capacity to ensure cost-effective and reliable freight operations. However, the lack of a standardized ownership and service model has led to a fragmented approach—where commercial vehicle operators may invest in, own, and maintain both vehicle/batteries and charging/energy infrastructure. This disconnect may exclude energy service providers from the equation, forcing fleet operators to explore ‘behind-the-fence’ energy solutions that increase capital investment, operational downtime, overhead costs, and, in some cases, net carbon emissions. To address these issues, this study introduces OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Efficient National Transport), a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates powertrain architectures, charging infrastructures, and energy backbone systems into a cohesive strategy. In this paper, OR-AGENT is applied to develop an interconnected systems architecture for energy efficiency and resiliency enhancement of heavy-duty drayage vehicles at the Port of Savannah, GA. This framework showcases an interconnected systems approach to electrifying heavy-duty drayage vehicles at the Port of Savannah, GA. The study assessed BEVs with 400–1200 kWh battery capacities, accounting for seasonal variations in weather and freight routing. A diverse charging mix (150 kW–1250 kW) was evaluated alongside grid capacity constraints, cost, and carbon intensity analysis, leading to the development of a strategic microgrid/Distributed Energy Resources (DER) deployment architecture to ensure a reliable and sustainable transition. However, the findings also highlight the need for alternative zero-emission solutions for remaining trips, such as larger batteries, electrified roadways, hydrogen powertrains, or net-zero emission fuels. In conclusion, the findings are incorporated into a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model to identify optimal architectures for an interconnected electrified ecosystem.

Commercial vehicles

Charting the Path to Electrification: Analyzing the Economic and Technological Potential of Advanced Vehicle Powertrains

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) is driving advancements in highway transportation by targeting energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and cost reductions. This study investigates the fuel economy potential and cost implications of advanced powertrain technologies using comprehensive system simulations. Leveraging tools such as Autonomie and TechScape, developed by Argonne National Laboratory, this study evaluates multiple timeframes (2023–2050) and powertrain types, including conventional internal combustion engines, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Simulations conducted across standard regulatory driving cycles provide detailed insights into fuel economy improvements, cost trajectories, and total cost of ownership. The findings highlight key innovations in battery energy density, lightweighting, and powertrain optimization, demonstrating the growing viability of BEVs and their projected economic competitiveness with conventional vehicles by 2050. This work delivers actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, underscoring the transformative potential of vehicle electrification in achieving sustainable transportation goals.

Islam, Ehsan Sabri (ORCID:0000000200220180)

Sample Diluter for Detecting Hypergolic Propellants and Other Toxic or Hazardous Gases

Hardware was developed to dilute vapor samples of purged hypergolic propellants (with air) into the range of existing instruments for detection of such toxic vapors. Since these detectors are normally used to monitor at the threshold limit value (TLV), most do not have quantitative capability at percent levels which relate to lower explosion limit (LEL) and fire hazards. For example, the upper limits of Energetic Sciences (ESI) 6000 series detectors used at KSC are 200 parts per million (ppm) for monomethyl hydrazine (MMH) and 500 ppm for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) arising from decomposition of nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4). Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) personnel servicing Shuttle thrusters need to measure up to 250 ppm MMH and 7,500 ppm NO2 with portable, intrinsically safe instruments. Our objective was to quickly fabricate a sample diluter out of existing materials as a temporary measure while other parallel efforts were conducted to provide a commercial or in-house-developed instrument to detect high propellant levels. A 3 to 1 diluter would bring 500 ppm MMH into the range of the existing fuel ESI, and a 30 to 1 diluter would do the same for NO2. In this way, familiar equipment already available would be used, resulting in minimal paperwork, safety, and training impacts and low cost. An MMH vapor sample-diluter was constructed from a 1/4-inch Kynar tee, along with specially designed lengths of sample and dilution tubing. The sample line was 3 feet of Bev-A-Line 4, 1/4-inch tube leading to the straight run of the tee. The side run of the tee had a 17-inch length of Bev-A-Line 4, 1/4-inch tube, for nominal 3 to 1 dilution. A gas sample bag was prepared and assayed at 113 ppm ppm MMH, and diluted vapor samples were assayed at 39.5 ppm, or a measured dilution of 2.9 to 1. For NO2, a 316 stainless steel (SS) 1/8-inch tee with 49.5 inches of coiled, 1/8-inch outside diameter (OD) 316 SS tubing was used as the sampling end of the dilution system. The side run of the tee was open. The measured dilution ratio, based on the input value of 6,480 ppm NO2, and the average output value of 233 ppm, was 28 to 1. Thus, sample-diluters were successful in diluting concentrated hypergolic propellant vapors, both MMH and N2O4 into the ranges of existing TLV detectors.

Barile, R. G.

Sample Diluter for Detecting Hypergolic Propellants and Other Toxic or Hazardous Gases

Hardware was developed to dilute vapor samples of purged hypergolic propellants (with air) into the range of existing instruments for detection of such toxic vapors. Since these detectors are normally used to monitor at the threshold limit value (TLV), most do not have quantitative capability at percent levels which relate to lower explosion limit (LEL) and fire hazards. For example, the upper limits of Energetic Sciences (ESI) 6000 series detectors used at KSC are 200 parts per million (ppm) for monomethyl hydrazine (MMH) and 500 ppm for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) arising from decomposition of nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4). Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) personnel servicing Shuttle thrusters need to measure up to 250 ppm MMH and 7500 ppm NO2 with portable, intrinsically safe instruments. Our objective was to quickly fabricate a sample diluter out of existing materials as a temporary measure while other parallel efforts were conducted to provide a commercial or in-house-developed instrument to detect high propellant levels. A 3 to 1 diluter would bring 500 ppm MMH into the range of the existing fuel ESI, and a 30 to 1 diluter would do the same for NO2. In this way, familiar equipment already available would be used, resulting in minimal paperwork, safety, and training impacts and low cost. An MMH vapor sample-diluter was constructed from a 1/4-inch Kynar tee, along with specially designed lengths of sample and dilution tubing. The sample line was 3 feet of Bev-A-Line 4, 1/4 inch tube leading to the straight run of the tee. The side run of the tee had a 17-inch length of Bev-A-Line 4, 1/4-inch tube, for nominal 3 to 1 dilution. A gas sample bag was prepared and assayed at 113 ppm MMH, and diluted vapor sarnples were assayed at 39.5 ppm, or a measured dilution of 2.9 to 1. For NO2, a 316 stainless steel (SS) 1/8-inch tee with 49.5 inches of coiled, 1/8-inch outside diameter (OD) 316 SS tubing was used as the sarnpling end of the dilution system. The side run of the tee was open. The measured dilution ratio, based on the input value of 6,480 ppm NO2 and the average output value of 233 ppm, was 28 to 1. Thus, sample-diluters were successful in diluting concentrated hypergolic propellant vapors, both MMH and N2O4, into the ranges of existing TLV detectors.

Barile, R. G.

Balloon Experiment at Venus

NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory is designing a return mission to the Venusian atmosphere using a reversible fluid altitude control balloon called Balloon Experiment at Venus (BEV). This is a proposed NASA flight experiment to demonstrate key technologies for operation of advanced balloons in the atmosphere of Venus. This paper includes both the mission profile and system description of the proposed BEV concept.

Venus planetary probes balloon

Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY

Individual Motorist Data - Ohio EV Ownership Trends

The individual motorist dataset contains data and analysis of consumer electric vehicle (EV) ownership trends in rural Appalachian Ohio in comparison with statewide trends. The data span four years, from Q1 2020 to Q2 2023 (partial). They are sourced from the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles registration records and contain detail on drivetrain type (battery-electric vehicle [BEV] or plug-in hybrid electric vehicle [PHEV]); specific vehicle make and model; and registration location at county, city, and ZIP code levels of spatial resolution. Registration data are analyzed at the county level against such indicators as median income, poverty status, urban-rural status, and density of public charging infrastructure. In addition to tabular data, a GIS shapefile with many analysis fields joined is included.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

High Velocity Joining of Multi-material Stacks Containing 3rd Generation Advanced High-Strength Stainless Steel and Aluminum Extrusion and Casting (Abstract)

Advanced lightweight materials, including multi-phase steels, aluminum extrusions and aluminum castings, have increasingly replaced mild steel to meet original equipment manufacturer (OEM) demand for increased fuel economy and crash-safety requirements. Third Generation (Gen 3) AHSS provides a superior combination of strength and ductility for crash energy management components in the vehicle body-in-white (BIW). Aluminum extrusions are widely used for bumper, door rocker panel, cradle and battery frame applications. Aluminum castings are increasingly being used in electric vehicles to provide part consolidation, weight saving and increased driving range. Rocker panels are, for example, an important component of the battery electric vehicle (BEV) body structure. The rocker panel serves several purposes, including structural support, crash resistance, protection for the vehicle's underbody and battery tray, and contributing to the overall aesthetics. In order to reduce weight, rocker panels are usually constructed using outer panels consisting of 3rd generation advanced high strength steels (AHSS) and an inner multicell aluminum extrusion structure for energy absorption which protects the batteries in a crash event. It is well known, however, that these material combinations provide significant challenges for joining and are susceptible to liquid metal embrittlement and loss of strength. The overall goal is to find a solution that addresses these challenges in order to produce multi-material vehicle components with reduced weight and minimal galvanic and recyclability issues. The approach being proposed here is to utilize a novel high velocity (HiVe) riveting and clinching technique recently demonstrated by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to join (2T/3T) sheets of aluminum alloys and steel. This process will not only address the aforementioned challenges but also help significantly reduce the joining cycle time. This work will also demonstrate use of HiVe assemblies to be retrofitted to existing body-shop robots thus having minimal impact to existing body shop operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Improving the Freight Productivity of a Heavy-Duty, Battery Electric Truck by Intelligent Energy Management

This project aimed to enhance the range and reduce the operating costs of battery electric Class 8 trucks traveling over 250 miles daily. This was achieved through the development and implementation of an intelligent-Energy Management System (i-EMS) that leverages vehicle and operations data, physics-aware machine learning algorithms, and vehicle-to-cloud (V2C) connectivity. The project hypothesized that advanced machine learning algorithms and real-time data analytics could significantly improve the energy efficiency and range of these trucks. Key objectives included developing a physics-aware machine learning algorithm, implementing an i-EMS with V2C connectivity and physics-aware spatial data analytics (PSDA), and validating the system’s effectiveness with fleet partners HEB Companies and Murphy Logistics. Extensive data collection from vehicle operations, including vehicle characteristics, road conditions, and payload, was conducted. A machine learning algorithm was developed to predict energy consumption and enable proactive decision-making. The i-EMS was implemented on two Volvo VNR BEVs, with operators receiving charging and routing recommendations. Charging stations were installed at depot locations in Texas and Minnesota, with an additional on-route charger in Minnesota. Significant findings included a 14% range improvement for Murphy Logistics on a highway-driving eco-route and a 22% range improvement for HEB Companies on a city-driving eco-route. The i-EMS utilized rule-based methods and physics-based algorithms to predict and reduce energy consumption, with real-time monitoring and analysis through V2C connectivity enabling proactive decision-making. The project demonstrated the feasibility and economic viability of battery electric Class 8 trucks for long-haul operations, showcasing the potential of physics-aware machine learning in optimizing energy management. The successful implementation of the i-EMS in real-world scenarios validates its practical application and effectiveness, paving the way for the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles in the freight transportation industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Analyzing Potential Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions from Plug-In Electric Vehicles: Report for CRC Project, "Carbon Return on Investment for Electrified Vehicles"

Investment in battery and electrification technologies has the potential to greatly reduce vehicular greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) will have zero tailpipe emissions. However, there will be GHG emissions associated with production of the vehicle including its battery, and with any carbon-emitting electricity sources used to charge the vehicle. This study explores the GHG reduction benefits of different plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) designs in the context of factors such as electricity production mix, per-vehicle battery requirements, and varying battery market growth scenarios. The analyses focus on the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) market, which accounts for nearly 60% of U.S. transportation sector GHG emissions - over twice as much as the next largest contributing transportation sub-sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Enabling Secure and Resilient XFC: A Software/Hardware-Security Co-Design Approach

Extremely fast charging (XFC) has the potential to reduce the charging time of battery electric vehicles (BEV) to be equivalent to the filling time of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), thus eliminating one of the few advantages ICEV still poses for light- and heavy-duty vehicles. Enabling XFC will, however, require coordination and cooperation between the grid, charging stations, and the vehicles themselves, which leads to an inevitable increase in the attack surface for all systems combined. In securing the overall system, we must not only embrace traditional cybersecurity, which is chiefly concerned with communications and the operation of digital systems, but also cyber-physical systems security as the proper operation of XFC is critically dependent on systems’ abilities to know about (sense) and interact with (actuate) the physical world. The project team consists of academic and industry researchers with backgrounds in cybersecurity, cyber-physical systems security, learning in adversarial environments, transportation security, grid security and resilience, wireless power transfer, converter design, and battery management systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

ATEAM4Py: An Efficient and Scalable Python-Based Model for Charging Demand

This report details the development and implementation of ATEAM4Py, a Python-based simulation model that projects demand for battery electric vehicle (BEV) charging based on adoption trends and consumer behavior. With Exelon’s support, Argonne National Laboratory converted the original Java-based Agent-based Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM) into Python, resulting in a faster and more efficient tool for forecasting the timing, location, and scale of charging demand growth. ATEAM4Py tackles key challenges in simulation efficiency and runtime, supporting the strategic development of cost-effective grid capacity expansion strategies and ensuring reliable service for stakeholders.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

GCAM Regional Tuning: A framework to tune GCAM parameters

GCAM assumptions typically generate scenarios that are designed to be internally consistent and globally coherent. The gcamdata tool which facilitates the compilation of data sets and user assumptions is not well suited to tailoring to specific country or regional realities, sponsor requirements, or perform harmonization for model intercomparison needs. As described in this report, the GCAM Regional Tuning project develops a computational framework that enables users to adjust GCAM parameters, so model outputs match targeted outcomes at user-defined spatial, temporal, and sectoral resolutions. The framework integrates GCAM, gcamdata, and gcamwrapper with a set of flexible “tuning directives” and an iterative numerical solver. Users can define targets (e.g., technology shares in power generation, BEV uptake, sectoral service demands), select tuners that manipulate relevant GCAM parameters (e.g., share weights, cost adders, elasticities), and export tuned parameters as reusable GCAM XML inputs for future runs. We demonstrate the approach and document usage, diagnostics, and known limitations, and we outline potential future directions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Evaluation of Commercially Available Proprietary Vehicle-to-Home Systems: A V2X Connect Project Report

Bidirectional charging and Vehicle-to-Home (V2H) technologies enable the energy stored in a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle’s (PHEV) or battery electric vehicle’s (BEV) onboard battery to supply residential loads during grid outages and support broader energy management objectives. Conventional backup solutions, such as Uninterruptible Power Supplies (UPS) and standalone inverter systems, are limited in capacity and scalability, whereas PHEV/BEV-based storage offers substantially greater energy reserves that can sustain household loads for extended periods.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS