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At least 37 records · Page 2

Interferometric SAR modelling of near surface data to improve geological model in the Surat Basin, Australia

Here we present a study on geophysical inverse modelling for subsurface structural properties of an unconventional hydrocarbon site that was monitored previously by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology for surface deformation. A static three-dimensional geomodel along with extracted property maps replicates the depth of each underlying stratigraphic unit and structural feature with the density of each geological layer. We examine the hypothesis that integration of elastic properties of each formation layer with InSAR observations in a stratified elastic medium will lead to a viscoelastic geophysical inverse problem that can be solved to estimate fractional volume change at the reservoir level. Moreover, we examine synthetic scenarios in which the elastic properties of the formations are perturbed before determining the resulting impact on the rate of surface deformation. The results show that although the slope of underlying formations, their density and depth can define the extent and pattern of a deformation signal, their properties have a marginal impact on volumetric change compared to the dense network of shallow depth Coal Seam Gas (CSG) mining wells. Besides, it is also demonstrated that the inversion of InSAR deformation maps can resolve the uncertainties associated with low-resolution seismic interpretation as well as filling the data gaps within seismic acquisitions. A significant contribution of this investigation to the geological basin modelling involves a) introducing a remote and non-invasive technology such as InSAR to improve geophysical mapping of subsurface structures such as faults in areas with sparse or no reflective seismic information, and b) applying a multi-layer viscoelastic geophysical source model for an unconventional hydrocarbon reservoir such as CSG.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss

The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens of meters due to local distortion of paleoshorelines caused by mantle dynamics. We combine an Australian sea level marker compilation with geodynamic simulations and probabilistic inversions to quantify and remove these post-Pliocene vertical motions at continental scale. Dynamic topography accounts for most of the observed sea level marker deflection, and correcting for this effect and glacial isostatic adjustment yields a Mid-Pliocene global mean sea level of +16.0 (+10.4 to +21.5) m (50th/16th to 84th percentiles). Recalibration of recent high-end sea level projections using this revised estimate implies a more stable Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming scenarios, consistent with midrange forecasts of sea level rise that do not incorporate a marine ice cliff instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptation to climate change through strategic integration of long fallow into cropping system in a dryland Mediterranean-type environment

The crop-growing region of Western Australia characterized by a Mediterranean-type climate is projected to become warmer and drier. Appropriate selection of crop sequences will be of importance to cope with these climatic changes for this largest grain-producing region of Australia. Through linking a widely used crop model (APSIM), 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with one Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP585) and economic analysis, we explored how the climate change would affect dryland wheat cropping and whether/how long fallow (the practice of leaving a field out of production for an entire growing season) could be integrated into wheat cropping system in Western Australia. The potential adaptation of long fallow into wheat system was assessed with four fixed rotations (fallow-wheat, fallow-wheat-wheat, fallow-wheat-wheat-wheat, and fallow-wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat) and four flexible sowing rule-based rotations (the land was fallowed if sowing rule was not met), compared with continuous wheat. The simulation results at four representing locations show that climate change would have negative impacts on both yield and economic return of continuous wheat cropping in Western Australia. Wheat after fallow out-yielded and out-profited wheat after wheat under future climate. But integrating fallow into wheat cropping systems with the above fixed rotations would lead to yield and economic loss. By contrast, cropping systems in which fallowing took place when sowing condition could not be met at a certain time would achieve comparable yield and economic return to continuous wheat, with wheat yield being only 5% less than continuous wheat and the gross margin being $12ha -1 more than continuous wheat averaged across locations. We highlight strategic integration of long fallow into cropping system in a dryland Mediterranean-type environment would have a great potential to cope with future climate change. These findings can be extended into other Mediterranean-type cropping regions in Australia and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent aspects on epidemiology, clinical disease, and genetic diversity of Toxoplasma gondii infections in Australasian marsupials

Toxoplasma gondii infections are common in humans and animals worldwide. Among all intermediate hosts of T. gondii, captive marsupials from Australia and New Zealand are highly susceptible to clinical toxoplasmosis. However, most free-range marsupials establish chronic T. gondii infection. Infected marsupial meat may serve as a source of T. gondii infection for humans. Differences in mortality patterns in different species of kangaroos and other marsupials are not fully understood. Lifestyle, habitat, and the genotype of T. gondii are predicted to be risk factors. For example, koalas are rarely exposed to T. gondii because they live on treetops whereas wallabies on land are frequently exposed to infection. The present review summarizes worldwide information on the prevalence of clinical and subclinical infections, epidemiology, and genetic diversity of T. gondii infecting Australasian marsupials in their native habitat and among exported animals over the past decade. The role of genetic types of T. gondii and clinical disease is discussed. Fatal toxoplasmosis has been diagnosed in captive Australasian marsupials in Argentina, Chile, China, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Spain, Turkey, and the USA. Most deaths occurred because of disseminated toxoplasmosis. Genetic characterization of T. gondii strains isolated from fatal marsupial infections identified Type III as well as atypical, nonclonal genotypes. Fatal toxoplasmosis was also diagnosed in free-ranging wombats (Vombatus ursinus) in Australia. Genetic characterization of DNA amplified directly from host tissues of subclinical culled kangaroos at slaughter identified many mixed-strain infections with both atypical and recombinant genotypes of T. gondii. Most Australasian marsupials in their native land, Australia and New Zealand, have high prevalence of T. gondii, and kangaroo meat can be a source of infection for humans if consumed uncooked/undercooked. The genotypes prevalent in kangaroos in Australia and New Zealand were genetically distinct from those isolated or genotyped from most macropods in the USA and other countries. Thus, clinical toxoplasmosis in marsupials imported from Australia is most likely to occur from infections acquired after importation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments

Abstract A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden–Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs 1–2 weeks ahead of tornado occurrence. Significance Statement The main goal of this study is to describe what atmospheric conditions (from local to global scales) are present prior to and during tornadic storms impacting southeast South America (SESA). Increasing potential for deep convection, wind shear, and potential for rotating updrafts, as well as reducing convective inhibition and cloud-base height, are predominant a few hours before and during the events in connection to low-level northerly winds enhancing moisture transport to the region. Remote convective activity near northern Australia appears to influence large-scale atmospheric circulation that subsequently triggers convective storms supporting tornadogenesis 1–2 weeks later in SESA. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for atmospheric processes occurring at different scales to understand and predict tornado occurrences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Assessing the representation of the Australian carbon cycle in global vegetation models

Australia plays an important role in the global terrestrial carbon cycle on inter-annual timescales. While the Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations of net biome production (NBP) and the carbon stored in vegetation between 1901 to 2018 from 13 DGVMs (TRENDY v8 ensemble). We focused our analysis on Australia's short-term (inter-annual) and long-term (decadal to centennial) terrestrial carbon dynamics. The TRENDY models simulated differing magnitudes of NBP on inter-annual timescales, and these differences resulted in significant differences in long-term vegetation carbon accumulation (–4.7 to 9.5 Pg C). We compared the TRENDY ensemble to several satellite-derived datasets and showed that the spread in the models' simulated carbon storage resulted from varying changes in carbon residence time rather than differences in net carbon uptake. Differences in simulated long-term accumulated NBP between models were mostly due to model responses to land-use change. The DGVMs also simulated different sensitivities to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, although notably, the models with nutrient cycles did not simulate the smallest NBP response to CO 2 . Our results suggest that a change in the climate forcing did not have a large impact on the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, the inter-annual variability in precipitation drives the year-to-year variability in NBP. We analysed the impact of key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on NBP. While the DGVMs agreed on sign of the response of NBP to El Niño and La Niña and to positive and negative IOD events, the magnitude of inter-annual variability in NBP differed strongly between models. In addition, we find that differences in the timing of simulated phenology and fire dynamics are associated with differences in simulated or prescribed vegetation cover and process representation. We further find model disagreement in simulated vegetation carbon, phenology, and apparent carbon residence time, indicating that the models have different types and coverage of vegetation across Australia (whether prescribed or emergent). Our study highlights the need to evaluate parameter assumptions and the key processes that drive vegetation dynamics, such as phenology, mortality, and fire, in an Australian context to reduce uncertainty across models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Novel fisheries investigations by Harald Dannevig: some parallels with Johan Hjort on the other side of the world

Abstract Harald Dannevig was Australia’s first Director of fisheries research and Director of Australia’s first ocean-going research vessel. Dannevig’s initial contributions concerned hatchery technology, freshwater fisheries, and impacts of estuarine prawn trawling. Later, he revealed the growth and migration of sea mullet, the spawning of pelagic eggs in the coastal ocean, and he was the first to demonstrate the effect of onshore winds on recruitment to estuarine fisheries. Using plans of the first Norwegian research trawler Michael Sars, he advised on the construction and commissioning of Endeavour. He organized 99 research voyages over 6 years to determine suitable trawling grounds over ∼7000 km, discovering 263 new species, including 96 new fish species and ∼5000 catalogued specimens. Harald Dannevig’s significant achievements in Australia were soon forgotten after his death with the loss of Endeavour in the Southern Ocean at the beginning of World War I. Both Johan Hjort and Dannevig were numerate, loved natural history, and were keenly observant on the deck. As these two scientists did not correspond, their innovative and parallel thinking stems from the shared university environment with G.O. Sars, and the rapport between Sars and Harald’s father Gunder Dannevig, concerning the fish hatchery and stocking of larval cod.

Suthers, Iain M.↗

Climate Services for Agriculture: Tools for Informing Decisions Relating to Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Wine Industry

Australia’s changing climate is already impacting the agriculture sector and will continue to do so in the future. To help respond to these impacts, the Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) platform presents readily accessible climate data, including future climate projections, relevant to specific agricultural commodities. This wine industry example aims to demonstrate the functionality and utility of the CSA for national use across a broad range of commodities. Methods and Results. The platform includes commodity-relevant climate indices designed in consultation with experts to ensure that they are as salient to producers as possible; the wine-grape specific indices include measures of growing season temperature, rainfall, extreme heat, and frost. Here, we describe the research behind the wine-grape specific indices and present sample outputs from the CSA platform for a site within a selected winegrowing region. We note the CSA platform has been developed through an extensive and continuing user engagement initiative, ensuring it meets the needs of the agriculture community as they grapple with how to make decisions based on longer term climate projections. Conclusions. Provision of past, seasonal outlook, and future climate information for Australia and for a range of important agricultural commodities can help improve on-farm planning and decision-making to respond to climate risks. The wine industry provides a leading example of how to use these data for decision-making, noting ongoing adjustments will be needed. Significance of the Study. The CSA platform brings together historical climate data, seasonal climate outlooks, and future climate projections to assist agricultural producers to better manage climate variability and climate change. It aims to nationalise this information for all major agricultural commodities in Australia. We use wine production as a demonstration case here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topsoil bulk geochemical compositions - An updated harmonized global dataset

Mineral weathering is a key biogeochemical process because of the capacity of minerals to stabilize organic matter. However, predicting soil weathering status across large spatial areas still isn’t possible due to a lack of global data and theoretical frameworks. To address this knowledge gap, multiple global datasets of bulk topsoil geochemical compositions have been harmonized using R. These datasets document topsoil bulk geochemical compositions across five continents (n = ~16,000 observations). Source data for these observations include the EuroGEOSurveys Geochemical Baseline Database (FOREGS), the US Geological Survey National Geochemical Database (NASGLP), the Geochemical Atlas of Australia (GAA), the US Geological Survey Alaska Geochemical Database (AGD84), the National Cooperative Soil Survey (NCSS), the European Geochemical Mapping of Agricultural Soil (GEMAS), Ecorespira-Amazon (ERA), the New Zealand Geochemical Baseline Survey (NZ_GBS), and the African Soil Information Service (AFSIS). Major elements observed include Aluminum (Al), Calcium (Ca), Iron (Fe), Potassium (K), Magnesium (Mg), Sodium (Na), Titanium (Ti), Manganese (Mn), Phosphorus (P), Carbon (C), and Sulfur (S). This data package includes the harmonized dataset itself, and the R scripts necessary to harmonize these datasets, in addition to metadata that describes all columns, files, and databases used in this project. Methods & Sampling Step 1 – Databases of geochemical data identified This study aimed to leverage existing measurements of topsoil geochemical data. Databases were first identified and deemed appropriate for inclusion if they were measuring soils and performed these measurements on the <2mm soil fraction. Databases such as NCSS and AGD84 needed more post processing to include in the database and this was done using the NCSS_datamerge_031626 R file and Alaska_USGSmerge_031626 R file, respectively. Step 2 – Database harmonization Once appropriate databases were identified, they were harmonized for ease of analysis using the R script Database_Harmonization_031826. This included removing columns from original datasets that would not be used in analysis (removed columns are noted in the code). Then, data cleaning procedures specific to each dataset were undertaken. This includes standardizing columns to include units and adding metadata columns regarding procedures for analyzing specific elements. Functions for standardizing measurements and units are outline in R files: calculate element_mg_kg_031626, calculate_oxide_wt_perc_031626, change_oxide_caps_031626, and conv_2_numeric_031626. This also included adding a unique identifier for each sample to identify it with its respective database (see CD_ID in data dictionary). Geographic information: Data reflect a compilation of datasets collected globally. Geographic areas covered by each of the datasets include: - EuroGEOSurveys Geochemical Baseline Database (FOREGS) - European continent - North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes (NASGLP) - continental United States and limited parts of Canada (see database key for more details) - National Geochemical Survey of Australia (GAA) - Australia - Alaska geochemical database (AGDB4) - Alaska - National Cooperative Soil Survey (NCSS) - Global measurements, but concentrated in the continental United States - Geochemical data for arable land and land under permanent grass cover in continental Europe (GEMAS) - continental Europe - Ecorespira-Amazon (ERA) - Geochemical data from the Amazon basin - Geochemical baseline data for New Zealand (NZGBS) - New Zealand - Geochemical data collected across continental Africa (AfSIS) - Measurements across Africa

EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > SOILS↗

Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) (CRADA CRD-14-541 Final Report)

This project forms a part of the broader project with the same name which is funded by ASI under the US-Australia Solar Energy Collaboration (Broader Project). The Broader Project involves a number of other participants, being the University of New South Wales, the University of South Australia, the Australian Energy Market Operator Limited and the Commonwealth of Australia acting through the Bureau of Meteorology (Other Participants). NREL and CSIRO will each work with the Other Participants in the performance of this CRADA. However, for the avoidance of doubt, this CRADA does not cover the whole of the Broader Project and only relates to the work described in this Joint Work Statement, which is to be carried out by NREL. In the course of this project, NREL may be provided with materials belonging to CSIRO or the Other Participants, which it may use solely for the purpose of performing the project described in this Joint Work Statement. Similarly, CSIRO may provide NREL project materials to Other Participants pursuant to Article IX or XV of the CRADA, for the purpose of performing research forming part of the Broader Project in collaboration with CSIRO.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Tools for Design and Scale-Up of Solar Thermochemical Reactors: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-13-00530

NREL will be collaborating with the Participant on a United States - Australia Solar Energy Collaboration (USASEC) Project Number 1-USO034 "Tools for design and scale-up of solar thermochemical reactors." The grant funds for the Participant's 3.5 year project number 1-US034 commencing on 1 February 2013 have been awarded to the Participant by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and NREL will be collaborating with the Participant during the final 28 months of this project. This project seeks to provide basic knowledge required to design solar thermochemical reactors able to perform the required energy conversions. In several proposed and demonstrated reactors, concentrated sunlight directly irradiates small solid particles suspended in fluid, enabling very high heat transfer rates to the particles which are the sites of chemical reaction. The reactors, therefore, involve the complex and couple dynamics of turbulent, chemically reacting, particle-laden flows and their interaction with concentrating solar radiation. A strong understanding of these coupled interactions will be crucial important in predicting and optimizing the performance of prototype reactors, but this understanding does not yet exist, since they have never been studied in any fundamental way. The project has a assembled an internationally leading team from The University of New South Wales (UNSW) and the University of Adelaide in Australia and the NREL in the United States to address this key gap in available know-how. The project will use U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) supercomputers, among the most powerful available worldwide, with cutting-edge software tools to perform first-principles simulations of the relevant interactions. These studies will be combined with detailed laser-based measurements in Australia to provide the first comprehensive databases concerning the governing phenomena in directly irradiated solar-thermochemical reactors. The outcomes will be the basic scientific knowledge, engineering knowhow and modeling tools necessary to design new reactor concepts and then scale up from the laboratory bench to practical size systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗