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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Unraveling the Mechanisms and Implications of a Stronger Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in PlioMIP2

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic.

AMOC↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Meridional Distribution of Aerosol Optical Thickness over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Previous studies showed that, over the global ocean, there is hemispheric asymmetry in aerosols and no noticeable asymmetry in cloud fraction (CF). In the current study, we focus on the tropical Atlantic (30 Deg N 30 Deg S) which is characterized by significant amounts of Saharan dust dominating other aerosol species over the North Atlantic. We found that, by contrast to the global ocean, over a limited area such as the tropical Atlantic, strong meridional asymmetry in dust aerosols was accompanied by meridional CF asymmetry. During the 10-year study period (July 2002 June 2012), NASA Aerosol Reanalysis (aka MERRAero) showed that, when the meridional asymmetry in dust aerosol optical thickness (AOT) was the most pronounced (particularly in July), dust AOT averaged separately over the tropical North Atlantic was one order of magnitude higher than dust AOT averaged over the tropical South Atlantic. In the presence of such strong meridional asymmetry in dust AOT in July, CF averaged separately over the tropical North Atlantic exceeded CF averaged over the tropical South Atlantic by 20%. Our study showed significant cloud cover, up to 0.8 - 0.9, in July along the Saharan Air Layer which contributed to above-mentioned meridional CF asymmetry. Both Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) measurements and MERRAero data were in agreement on seasonal variations in meridional aerosol asymmetry. Meridional asymmetry in total AOT over the Atlantic was the most pronounced between March and July, when dust presence over the North Atlantic was maximal. In September and October, there was no noticeable meridional asymmetry in total AOT and meridional CF distribution over the tropical Atlantic was almost symmetrical.

Cloud Fraction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric and oceanic energy transport during North Atlantic freshening events: influences of moisture transport and hydrologic cycle feedbacks

Analogs of present-day rapid ice melt can be found in episodic discharges of icebergs that occurred during glacial periods called Heinrich events. This introduces excess meltwater into the North Atlantic and weakens the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (AMOC), triggering a hydrologic cycle–AMOC collapse feedback as the atmospheric energy transport compensates for reduced northward heat transport. Here we employ a novel series of 100-year North Atlantic “hosing” simulations to investigate atmospheric and oceanic energy transport response from freshwater forcing, focusing in particular on the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) within atmospheric energy transport. Importantly, we use an “overwriting” methodology that allow us to attribute AMOC weakening to added North Atlantic meltwater and subsequent hydrologic cycle responses, respectively. In contrast to far-reaching response of transient eddies, our results show a substantial increase in moisture convergence from ARs that is geographically constrained to the North Atlantic midlatitudes. Such AR changes nevertheless comprise an important component of net precipitation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector, with the amount being comparable to that from transient eddies over the subpolar Atlantic. Over the course of the century-long simulations, we demonstrate that hydrologic cycle responses to North Atlantic freshening and subsequent feedbacks, including those from ARs, account for approximately half of the simulated AMOC collapse. Furthermore, our work highlights the dynamics of atmospheric moisture transport response to North Atlantic freshening events and elucidates how intensifying moisture transport may accelerate AMOC collapse in the future.

Atmospheric Science↗
NASA NTRS2007

Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Rainfall in the Equatorial Atlantic

Tropical Atlantic rainfall patterns and variation during boreal summer [June-July-August (JJA)] are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979-2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring [March-April-May (MAM)] is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strength and the basin-mean rainfall are found during both seasons. Interannual variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location during JJA however are generally negligible, in contrasting to intense year-to-year fluctuations during MAM. Sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations along the equatorial region (usually called the Atlantic Nino events) and in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) are shown to be the two major local factors modulating the tropical Atlantic climate during both seasons. During MAM, both SST modes tend to contribute to the formation of an evident interhemispheric SST gradient, thus inducing anomalous shifting of the ITCZ and then forcing a dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies across the equator primarily in the western basin. During JJA the impacts however are primarily on the ITCZ strength likely due to negligible changes in the ITCZ latitudinal location. The Atlantic Nino reaches its peak in JJA, while much weaker SST anomalies appear north of the equator in JJA than in MAM, showing decaying of the interhemispheric SST mode. SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (the El Nino events) have a strong impact on tropical Atlantic including both the tropical north Atlantic and the equatorial-southern Atlantic. However, anomalous warming in the tropical north Atlantic following positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific disappears during JJA because of seasonal changes in the large-scale circulation cutting off the ENSO influence passing through the mid-latitudes. Hence the anomalies associated with the tropical Pacific during JJA are forced through an anomalous Walker circulation primarily working on the western basin, and likely a lagged oceanic response in the equatorial region.

Gu, Guojun↗
NASA NTRS2009

A GCM Study of Responses of the Atmospheric Water Cycle of West Africa and the Atlantic to Saharan Dust Radiative Forcing

The responses of the atmospheric water cycle and climate of West Africa and the Atlantic to radiative forcing of Saharan dust are studied using the NASA finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), coupled to a mixed layer ocean. We find evidence of an "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism that underlines the responses of the atmospheric water cycle to dust forcing as follow. During the boreal summerr, as a result of large-scale atmospheric feedback triggered by absorbing dust aerosols, rainfall and cloudiness are ehanIed over the West Africa/Eastern Atlantic ITCZ, and suppressed over the West Atlantic and Caribbean region. Shortwave radiation absorption by dust warms the atmosphere and cools the surface, while longwave has the opposite response. The elevated dust layer warms the air over West Africa and the eastern Atlantic. As the warm air rises, it spawns a large-scale onshore flow carrying the moist air from the eastern Atlantic and the Gulf of Guinea. The onshore flow in turn enhances the deep convection over West Africa land, and the eastern Atlantic. The condensation heating associated with the ensuing deep convection drives and maintains an anomalous large-scale east-west overturning circulation with rising motion over West Africa/eastern Atlantic, and sinking motion over the Caribbean region. The response also includes a strengthening of the West African monsoon, manifested in a northward shift of the West Africa precipitation over land, increased low-level westerlies flow over West Africa at the southern edge of the dust layer, and a near surface westerly jet underneath the dust layer overr the Sahara. The dust radiative forcing also leads to significant changes in surface energy fluxes, resulting in cooling of the West African land and the eastern Atlantic, and warming in the West Atlantic and Caribbean. The EHP effect is most effective for moderate to highly absorbing dusts, and becomes minimized for reflecting dust with single scattering albedo at0.95 or higher.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Introduction to: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)

A striking conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report is the crucial role that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play in anthropogenic climate change. However, these IPCC coupled climate simulations show a broad range of uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of AMOC transport change ranging from none to nearly complete collapse within the 21st century. The potential consequences of large changes in the characteristics of AMOC have motivated the creation in the United States of an interagency program and implementation plan to develop monitoring and prediction capabilities for the AMOC This program parallels the development of substantial monitoring efforts by European, South American and African countries -- notably the UK Rapid and Rapid-Watch programs. The papers contained in this volume are derived from presentations at the First U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Meeting held 4 - 6 May, 2009 to review the US implementation plan and its coordination with other monitoring activities. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation consists of multiple components illustrated in an attached figure. Water enters the South Atlantic at upper and intermediate depths through both western and eastern routes (where eddy transport is especially important) and is transported northward across the equator, where it recirculates within the northern subtropical and subpolar gyres. The northern end is defined by the sinking regions of the Nordic Seas and the Labrador Sea where the waters that eventually form the upper and lower branches of North Atlantic Deep Water are conditioned. High surface salinities, the result of high net evaporation in the tropics and subtropics (including the Mediterranean Sea), and presence of regions of the Arctic Ocean that remain ice-free even in winter allow for the rapid cooling and thus densification of surface water. This dense surface water becomes the source of deep water formation in the sinking regions. In addition to transporting mass, the AMOC transports roughly half of the total amount of heat carried northward through the northern subtropics (down the temperature-gradient) by the ocean. In contrast in the Southern Hemisphere AMOC transports heat up-gradient from the cool Circumpolar Current to the warm tropics. Paleoevidence suggests that AMOC heat transport in the two hemispheres has varied over time in ways intimately tied to millennial changes in the Earth's climate. In one example, the abrupt Younger Dryas spell of cold weather over the North Atlantic, which began 13,000 years ago, has generally been linked to a millennial shutdown of the AMOC as a result of massive freshwater discharge from the North American continent. The current AMOC monitoring array consists of a series of instrumented transects located across key passages (see Cunningham et al., 2010 for a recent review). In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, transects cross Fram Strait, Denmark Strait and the Faroe Channel (connecting Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom), as well as the entrance to the Labrador Sea. Further south and extending outwards from the east coast of North America there are a series of monitoring arrays including arrays of the Canadian Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program, deployments of the Rapid Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE), Line W at 39 N, as well as the Rapid-MOC moored array. The latter spans the entire Atlantic basin along 26.5 N. At tropical latitudes we have the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array at 16 N, while in the Southern Hemisphere a corresponding basin-spanning transect is being established at the latitude of Cape of Good Hope, complemented by arrays at Drake Passage.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ~8–12°C in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and model–data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (Pl↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of the tropical Atlantic in tropical Pacific climate variability

Abstract Interactions between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can affect tropical Pacific variability and its global impacts at both interannual and decadal timescales. Thus, a deepened understanding of the coupled Atlantic-Pacific interactions is needed. While possible dynamical mechanisms by which the Atlantic can influence the Pacific have been identified, the effectiveness of those mechanisms is difficult to establish using climate model simulations where Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed and Pacific feedbacks cannot be realistically included. As an alternative approach, here we use a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) trained on observations and capable of correctly reproducing the observed statistics, to assess the relative role of the Atlantic-to-Pacific and Pacific-to-Atlantic influences on tropical Pacific variability. Our results indicate that Atlantic internal variability can enhance interannual SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and decadal SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, while Pacific influences on the Atlantic significantly damp tropical Pacific decadal variability. This methodological framework could also be used to assess climate model fidelity in representing tropical basin interactions, helping to reconcile existing differences among models’ results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emergence of the Central Atlantic Niño

The Atlantic Niño is characterized by sea surface warming in the equatorial Atlantic, which can trigger La Niña, the cold phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although observations show that the Atlantic Niño has weakened by approximately 30% since the 1970s, its remote influence on ENSO remains strong. Here, we show that this apparent discrepancy is due to the existence of two types of Atlantic Niño with distinct patterns and climatic impacts, which we refer to as the central and eastern Atlantic Niño. Our results show that with equal strength, the central Atlantic Niño has a stronger influence on tropical climate than its eastern counterpart. Meanwhile, the eastern Atlantic Niño has weakened by approximately 50% in recent decades, allowing the central Atlantic Niño to emerge and dominate the remote impact on ENSO. Given the distinct climatic impacts of the two types, it is necessary to distinguish between them and investigate their behaviors and influences on climate in future studies.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular phylogenetic reassessment of eastern Atlantic Callinectes (Brachyura, Portunidae)

Abstract Several species from the genusCallinectesare economically important, yet the number of species and their geographic distributions remain unclear. Recently, one of the American species,Callinectes larvatus, was synonymized with one of the African species,C. marginatus, makingC. marginatusthe only species of the genus regarded to be amphi-Atlantic in distribution. However, there was no formal taxonomic study to support this taxonomic change, which was in contradiction to earlier studies that had provided morphological characters to support the taxonomic separation of the eastern Atlantic species from those of western Atlantic distribution.Callinectes maracaiboensishas also been questionably resurrected. Here we present a molecular based analysis for all species ofCallinectes, using the two common mitochondrial genes 16S and 12S. Our molecular data support the presence of three eastern Atlantic, three eastern Pacific, and nine western Atlantic species. Historically, it appears that the separation of Africa and South America with the opening of the Atlantic basin gave rise to sister species distributed on opposite sides of the Atlantic Ocean. In a second isolation event, the emergence of the Panamanian isthmus resulted in pairs of geminate species distributed in eastern Pacific and western Atlantic waters.

Marine & Freshwater Biology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Connecting the Radiative Influences of Aerosol upon the Mass Flux Profiles of Shallow Cumuli across the Southeast Atlantic Ocean Basin and its Boundaries (Final Report)

The Atlantic Ocean covers approximately 25% of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it is home to a complex array of clouds and aerosols that have important influences on regional and global weather and climate. These influences must be accurately depicted in short range, medium range, seasonal, and climate forecast models. Conditions over the tropical Atlantic are particularly complex due to continental scale plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert and smoke from agricultural burning in Africa that drift across the Atlantic Ocean basin toward the Americas. These plumes are often found meandering in the lower atmosphere above shallow tropical clouds that form above the ocean surface, presumably mingling with these clouds on occasion due to convective mixing processes. Elevated dust and smoke particles absorb incoming sunlight and substantially warm the marine atmosphere in the layer in which they are present. This warming may alter the thermal stability of the marine atmosphere and may throttle or enhance the development of clouds, change their internal structure and the rate at which they precipitate. Alternatively, it may isolate the lower atmosphere from drier layers above enabling water vapor to accumulate near the ocean surface potentially leading to the development of deeper convection. Our study was organized around the principal concept of determining the impact of African smoke and dust plumes upon cloud development at ASI and understanding how a popular shallow convection parameterization used in models responds to the presence of this aerosol. We analyzed observations collected during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Mobile Facility #1 (AMF-1), which was deployed to Ascension Island (ASI) in Southeastern Atlantic for a one-year period. Ascension Island is immediately downwind from an African source of these plumes, but far enough removed to enable the lower atmosphere to have reacted to their presence. A main goal of our study was to compute radiative heating rate profiles over Ascension Island and along the trajectory from the biomass burning regions along coastal Africa to Ascension Island. To compute the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds, we employed observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from LASIC alongside aerosol optical properties from the Modern-era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). Radiative heating was also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We were successful in this effort and the resulting publication is already being cited despite its relatively short lifetime in the literature. The second part of our study involved the process-level representation of the clouds observed over the Southeastern Atlantic in models. Our initial task, upon which the balance of this portion of the study depended, was to evaluate the representativeness of the clouds observed by AMF-1. What orographic influence did Ascension Island have on the measured cloud structure? We set out to answer this question by trying to separate observations that were clearly indicative of orographic forcing from those that were representative of open ocean. The siting of AMF-1, which was 340-m above sea-level on the slope of a steep escarpment, proved demonstrably problematic for cloud process measurements. Despite considerable effort using multiple approaches including artificial intelligence (AI), we were unable to successfully compensate for the orographic forcing present at the AMF-1 site on ASI and, hence, produce process-level summaries of the convective mass flux representative of open ocean over the Southeastern Atlantic. Even though the project has officially ended, we are making a final attempt using two new types of clustering algorithm (i.e., AI) on the recommendation of a former student, who is an expert in this area. Since we have only recently begun to test these new AI schemes, the recommendations from the second part of our project outlined below are based on our experience at the time of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A meteorological overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the southeastern Atlantic during 2016–2018: Part 1 – Climatology

In 2016–2018, the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) project undertook 3-month-long deployments to the southeastern (SE) Atlantic Ocean using research aircraft to better understand the impact of biomass burning (BB) aerosol transport to the SE Atlantic Ocean on climate. In this (part 1 of the meteorological overview) paper, the climatological features at monthly timescales are investigated. The southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S), defined as the zonal easterlies over 600-700 hPa exceeding 6 m s-1 around 5-15°S, is a characteristic feature of the mid-level circulation over southern Africa that was also during the deployment months of August 2017, September 2016, and October 2018. Climatologically, the AEJ-S develops at lower altitudes (~3 km; 700 hPa) between 5-10° S in August, while it develops at around 4 km (~600 hPa) and further south (5-15 °S) in September and October, largely driven by the strong sensible heating over the African plateau. Notable meteorological anomalous characteristics during the 3 deployment months, compared to climatology (2000-2018), include the following: (1) during August 2017, the AEJ-S was weaker than the climatological mean, with an additional anomalous upper-level jet aloft (~6 km) around 10 °S. August 2017 was also drier over the SE Atlantic at 600-700 hPa than climatology, with a stronger Benguela low-level jet (LLJ) at 925-950 hPa along the Namibian coast of the SE Atlantic. Consistent with this, the southern Atlantic anticyclone was also stronger and closer to the coast than the August climatological mean. (2) During September 2016, the AEJ-S intensity was similar to the climatological mean, although the heat low and vertical motion over the land was slightly stronger compared to the September climatology. The LLJ and the large-scale southern Atlantic anticyclone were stronger than the climatological mean. (3) During October 2018, the AEJ-S was slightly weaker compared to the climatological mean, as was the LLJ and the southern Atlantic anticyclone. October 2018 was wetter over the Benguela coastal region at 600 hPa than the climatological mean. During all the deployment months, the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the SE Atlantic were warmer than the climatological means, but the monthly mean low cloud fraction was only noticeably reduced in August 2017. A weak August 2017 AEJ-S can explain low offshore black carbon (BC) mixing ratios within the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, although the BC peak altitude, at 2-3 km, is below that of the AEJ-S. The upper-level wave disturbance and the associated anomalous circulation also explain the weakening of AEJ-S through the reduction of the strength of the heat low over the land during August 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

On the Pathways of the Return Flow of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Tropical Atlantic

A numerical model of the tropical Atlantic ocean is used to investigate the upper layer pathways of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the tropical Atlantic. The main focus of this thesis is on those parts of the tropical circulation that are thought to be important for the MOC return flow, but whose dynamics have not been understood yet. It is shown how the particular structure of the tropical gyre and the MOO act to inhibit the flow of North Atlantic water into the equatorial thermocline. As a result, the upper layers of the tropical Atlantic are mainly fed by water from the South Atlantic. The processes that carry the South Atlantic water across the tropical Atlantic into the North Atlantic as part of the MOO are described here, and three processes that were hitherto not understood are explained as follows: The North Brazil Current rings are created as the result of the reflection of Rossby waves at the South American coast. These Rossby waves are generated by the barotropically unstable North Equatorial Countercurrent. The deep structure of the rings can be explained by merger of the wave's anticyclones with the deeper intermediate eddies that are generated as the intermediate western boundary current crosses the equator. The bands of strong zonal velocity in intermediate depths along the equator have hitherto been explained as intermediate currents. Here, an alternative interpretation of the observations is offered: The Eulerian mean flow along the equator is negligible and the observations are the signature of strong seasonal Rossby waves. The previous interpretation of the observations can then be explained as aliasing of the tropical wave field. The Tsuchyia Jets are driven by the Eliassen-Palm flux of the tropical instability waves. The equatorial current system with its strong shears is unstable and generates tropical instability waves.

Jochum, Markus↗
NASA NTRS2016

Saharan Dust as a Causal Factor of Significant Cloud Cover Along the Saharan Air Layer in the Atlantic Ocean

The tropical Atlantic is frequently affected by Saharan dust intrusions. Based on MODIS cloud fraction (CF) data during the ten-year study period, we found that these dust intrusions contribute to significant cloud cover along the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Below the temperature inversion at the SAL's base, the presence of large amounts of settling dust particles, together with marine aerosols, produces meteorological conditions suitable for the formation of shallow stratocumulus clouds. The significant cloud fraction along the SAL together with clouds over the Atlantic Inter-tropical Convergence Zone contributes to the 20% hemispheric CF asymmetry between the tropical North and South Atlantic. This leads to the imbalance in strong solar radiation, which reaches the sea surface between the tropical North and South Atlantic, and, consequently, affects climate formation in the tropical Atlantic. Therefore, despite the fact that, over the global ocean, there is no noticeable hemispheric asymmetry in cloud fraction, over the significant area such as the tropical Atlantic the hemispheric asymmetry in CF takes place. Saharan dust is also the major contributor to hemispheric aerosol asymmetry over the tropical Atlantic. The NASA GEOS-5 model with aerosol data assimilation was used to extend the MERRA reanalysis with five atmospheric aerosol species (desert dust, sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, and sea-salt). The obtained ten-year (2002 - 2012) MERRA-driven aerosol reanalysis dataset (aka MERRAero) showed that, over the tropical Atlantic, dust and carbonaceous aerosols were distributed asymmetrically relative to the equator, while other aerosol species were distributed more symmetrically.

CF↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

Gu, Guojun↗