Comparison of Accelerated Life Test Plans Based on Exact Small-Sample Methodology and Asymptotic Large-Sample Methodology.
Abstract not provided.
King, Caleb↗
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A Statistical Perspective on Highly Accelerated Testing
Highly accelerated life testing has been heavily promoted at Sandia (and elsewhere) as a means to rapidly identify product weaknesses caused by flaws in the product's design or manufacturing process. During product development, a small number of units are forced to fail at high stress. The failed units are then examined to determine the root causes of failure. The identification of the root causes of product failures exposed by highly accelerated life testing can instigate changes to the product's design and/or manufacturing process that result in a product with increased reliability. It is widely viewed that this qualitative use of highly accelerated life testing (often associated with the acronym HALT) can be useful. However, highly accelerated life testing has also been proposed as a quantitative means for "demonstrating" the reliability of a product where unreliability is associated with loss of margin via an identified and dominating failure mechanism. It is assumed that the dominant failure mechanism can be accelerated by changing the level of a stress factor that is assumed to be related to the dominant failure mode. In extreme cases, a minimal number of units (often from a pre-production lot) are subjected to a single highly accelerated stress relative to normal use. If no (or, sufficiently few) units fail at this high stress level, some might claim that a certain level of reliability has been demonstrated (relative to normal use conditions). Underlying this claim are assumptions regarding the level of knowledge associated with the relationship between the stress level and the probability of failure. The primary purpose of this document is to discuss (from a statistical perspective) the efficacy of using accelerated life testing protocols (and, in particular, "highly accelerated" protocols) to make quantitative inferences concerning the performance of a product (e.g., reliability) when in fact there is lack-of-knowledge and uncertainty concerning the assumed relationship between the stress level and performance. In addition, this document contains recommendations for conducting more informative accelerated tests.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Chapter 9: Reliability
This chapter describes the accumulated knowledge on CPV reliability with its fundamentals and qualification. It explains the reliability of solar cells, modules (including optics) and plants. The chapter discusses the statistical distributions, namely exponential, normal and Weibull. The reliability of solar cells includes: namely the issues in accelerated aging tests in CPV solar cells, types of failure and failures in real time operation. The chapter explores the accelerated life tests, namely qualitative life tests (mainly HALT) and quantitative accelerated life tests (QALT). It examines other well proven and experienced PV cells and/or semiconductor devices, which share similar semiconductor materials, manufacturing techniques or operating conditions, namely, III-V space solar cells and light emitting diodes (LEDs). It addresses each of the identified reliability issues and presents the current state of the art knowledge for their testing and evaluation. Finally, the chapter summarizes the CPV qualification and reliability standards.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Long term reliability study and life time model of quantum cascade lasers
Here, we present results of quantum cascade laser lifetime tests under various aging conditions including an accelerated life test. The total accumulated life time exceeds 1.5 × 106 device hours. The longest single device aging time was 46 500 hours without failure in the room temperature aging test. Four failures were found in a group of 19 devices subjected to the accelerated life test with a heat-sink temperature of 60 °C and a continuous-wave current of 1 A. Failure mode analyses revealed that thermally induced oxidation of InP in the semi-insulating layer is the cause of failure. An activation energy of 1.2 eV is derived from the dependence of the failure rate on laser core temperature. The mean time to failure of the quantum cascade lasers operating at a typical condition with the current density of 5 kA/cm2 and heat-sink temperature of 25 °C is expected to be 809 000 hours.
Xie, Feng↗
Implementation of a Biaxial Resonant Fatigue Test Method on a Large Wind Turbine Blade
A biaxial resonant test method was utilized to simultaneously fatigue test a wind turbine blade in the flap and edge (lead-lag) direction. Biaxial resonant blade fatigue testing is an accelerated life test method utilizing oscillating masses on the blade; each mass is independently oscillated at the respective flap and edge blade resonant frequency. The flap and edge resonant frequency were not controlled, nor were they constant for this demonstrated test method. This biaxial resonant test method presented surmountable challenges in test setup simulation, control and data processing. Biaxial resonant testing has the potential to complete test projects faster than single-axis testing. The load modulation during a biaxial resonant test may necessitate periodic load application above targets or higher applied test cycles.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
New understandings of failure modes in SSL luminaires
As SSL products are being rapidly introduced into the market, there is a need to develop standard screening and testing protocols that can be performed quickly and provide data surrounding product lifetime and performance. These protocols, derived from standard industry tests, are known as ALTs (accelerated life tests) and can be performed in a timeframe of weeks to months instead of years. Accelerated testing utilizes a combination of elevated temperature and humidity conditions as well as electrical power cycling to control aging of the luminaires. In this study, we report on the findings of failure modes for two different luminaire products exposed to temperature-humidity ALTs. LEDs are typically considered the determining component for the rate of lumen depreciation. However, this study has shown that each luminaire component can independently or jointly influence system performance and reliability. Material choices, luminaire designs, and driver designs all have significant impacts on the system reliability of a product. From recent data, it is evident that the most common failure modes are not within the LED, but instead occur within resistors, capacitors, and other electrical components of the driver. Insights into failure modes and rates as a result of ALTs are reported with emphasis on component influence on overall system reliability.
Shepherd, Sarah D↗
Metallurgical aspects influencing the resistance to steam oxidation and fracture toughness of select advanced replacement alloys for LWR core internals
Life extension of the existing nuclear reactors imposes accumulated damages, such as higher fluences and longer period of corrosion, to structural materials, which would result in significant challenges to the traditional reactor materials such as type 304 and 316 stainless steels. Advanced alloys with superior radiation resistance will increase safety margins, design flexibility, and economics for not only the life extension of the existing fleet but also new builds with advanced reactor designs. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) teamed up with Department of Energy (DOE) to initiate the Advanced Radiation Resistant Materials (ARRM) program, aiming to develop and test degradation resistant alloys from current commercial alloy specifications by 2021 to a new advanced alloy with superior degradation resistance in light water reactor (LWR)-relevant environments by 2024. Corrosion resistance in water environment is one of the fundamental properties required for LWR core internal materials. High-temperature steam oxidation tests are not only an accelerated life testing method to uncover potential failure modes in a short period of time, but also an approach to evaluate materials’ resistance to accidental scenarios. Coupons, prepared from fourteen candidate alloys that were selected under the ARRM program, were exposed to 1 bar full steam with ~10 part-per-billion oxygen content at 600 and 650°C for up to 5,000 h, which were weighed at 500-h intervals. Ni-base superalloys are an important class of alloys for reactor applications. Alloys 690, 725, and X- 750 were three of the selected Ni-base superalloys exposed to the steam tests. This report summarizes the metallurgical aspects, such as alloy thermodynamics and the nature of the oxides and the diffusivities of primary elements, and their effects on oxidation behavior of the three alloys. In addition to monitoring mass change, microstructures of the 5000h-exposed samples of alloys 690, 725, and X-750 were characterized using scanning and transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. Together with thermodynamic calculations, the scale constitution and its exfoliation behavior were discussed. Based on experimental and theoretical values, a new model was proposed to quantitatively estimate the metal thickness loss of the alloys. Alloy X-750 was found to have the best resistance to steam oxidation with the least metal thickness loss (<1 μm), which were slightly superior to alloy 690. Alloy 725 exhibited the worst resistance to steam oxidation with the greatest metal thickness loss, e.g., ~2.5 μm at 650°C, which is nearly three times of the metal thickness losses of alloys 690 and X-750 at 650°C. The greatest metal thickness loss of alloy 725 might be attributable to its high Mo content. Photos of the fracture toughness tested samples of eight alloys are presented, which will be correlated with their fracture toughness results and planned tensile test results to select representative alloy samples for detailed microstructural characterization to reveal their microstructure and properties relationships.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Testing and Expertise for Marine Energy (TEAMER) Program Support: MRE Dynamic Seals Performance Investigation (CRADA Final Report)
This TEAMER project allows NREL to use and augment a custom special-purpose testing system to perform accelerated-life testing of rotating seals for use in the Marine Renewable Energy (“MRE”) industry. The requirements of this industry are different from most applications including marine, and relevant performance information is lacking. In order to achieve low costs with extremely effective and reliable operation over long periods deployed underwater, more study of the best seals and arrangements of seals must be performed. By developing a rigorous framework for such testing, NREL hopes to greatly improve understanding of the relevant factors and provide significant data to the industry. Further, this work can inform standards developments for this critical component of MRE systems, leading to maturation and improved acceptance of the industry in commerce.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Reliability Assessment of Cooling Fans for PV Inverters: Testing, Modeling, and Case Studies
The reliability of photovoltaic (PV) inverters is critical for long-term solar system performance, with cooling fan failures frequently leading to costly downtime. While much research exists on general cooling fan reliability, little attention has been given to fans operating within PV inverters and their unique environmental challenges. Here, this article proposes a comprehensive methodology to address this gap. First, a failure mode and effects analysis is performed on fans to identify the key failure mechanisms in PV applications, their corresponding stressors, and the models necessary for lifetime prediction. Second, an accelerated life test is designed and conducted to collect valuable experimental data for PV inverter fans in a reasonable amount of time. Third, a mathematical conversion of dynamic mission profiles into effective constant stress levels is derived. Fourth, case studies are given, showcasing lifetime estimates that account for geographic variations in mission profile data. The results demonstrate that this integrated approach leads to an accurate reliability assessment for PV inverter cooling fans.
accelerated life testing (ALT)↗
Module-Level Thermal Interface Material Degradation in HALT
Abstract In this study, thermal interface material (TIM) degradation is driven through highly accelerated life test (HALT) using temperature cycling with a prescribed vibrational acceleration for two commercially available materials having thermal conductivities of 6.0 and 8.5 W/m K. HALT specimens were prepared by applying TIM through a 4-mil stencil over AlSiC baseplates in the shape of those used in Wolfspeed CAS325M12HM2 power electronics modules. Baseplates were mounted onto aluminum carrier blocks with embedded thermocouples to characterize the thermal resistance across the baseplate and TIM layer. Thermal dissipation into the top of the baseplates was provided by a custom heating block, which mimics the size and placement of the die junctions in CAS325 modules, applying power loads of 200, 300, and 400 W. After initial characterization, samples were transferred to the HALT chamber with one set of samples exposed to temperature cycling only (TCO) and the other temperature cycling and vibration (TCV). Both sample sets were cycled between temperature extremes of −40 °C and 180 °C with vibrations applied at a peak acceleration of 3.21 Grms. After hundreds of cycles, samples were reevaluated to assess changes in thermal resistance to provide an accelerated measure of TIM degradation. This allows for reliability prediction of useful lifetime (illustrated in a solar inverter case study herein), as well as to provide a basis for developing an accelerated testing method to related temperature cycling to faster methods of degradation. Such techniques provide a means to develop maintenance schedules for power modules for ensuring sufficient thermal performance over the operating lifetime.
Engineering↗
AGEING PROCEDURES ON LITHIUM BATTERIES IN AN INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION CONTEXT
The widespread introduction of electrically-propelled vehicles is currently part of many political strategies and introduction plans. These new vehicles, ranging from limited (mild) hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully-battery powered, will rely on a new class of advanced storage batteries, such as those based on lithium, to meet different technical and economical targets. The testing of these batteries to determine the performance and life in the various applications is a time-consuming and costly process that is not yet well developed. There are many examples of parallel testing activities that are poorly coordinated, for example, those in Europe, Japan and the US. These costs and efforts may be better leveraged through international collaboration, such as that possible within the framework of the International Energy Agency. Here, a new effort is under development that will establish standardized, accelerated testing procedures and will allow battery testing organizations to cooperate in the analysis of the resulting data. This paper reviews the present state-of-the-art in accelerated life testing in Europe, Japan and the US. The existing test procedures will be collected, compared and analyzed with the goal of international collaboration.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Electric field stimulated growth of Zn whiskers
We have investigated the impact of strong (∼10{sup 4} V/cm) electric fields on the development of Zn whiskers. The original samples, with considerable whisker infestation were cut from Zn-coated steel floors and then exposed to electric fields stresses for 10-20 hours at room temperature. We used various electric field sources, from charges accumulated in samples irradiated by: (1) the electron beam of a scanning electron microscope (SEM), (2) the electron beam of a medical linear accelerator, and (3) the ion beam of a linear accelerator; we also used (4) the electric field produced by a Van der Graaf generator. In all cases, the exposed samples exhibited a considerable (tens of percent) increase in whiskers concentration compared to the control sample. The acceleration factor defined as the ratio of the measured whisker growth rate over that in zero field, was estimated to approach several hundred. The statistics of lengths of e-beam induced whiskers was found to follow the log-normal distribution known previously for metal whiskers. The observed accelerated whisker growth is attributed to electrostatic effects. These results offer promise for establishing whisker-related accelerated life testing protocols.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Bayesian probabilistic model for life prediction and fault mode classification of solid state luminaires
A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. Failure modes of the test population of the lamps have been studied to understand the failure mechanisms in 85°C/85%RH accelerated test. Results indicate that the dominant failure mechanism is the discoloration of the LED encapsulant inside the lamps which is the likely cause for the luminous flux degradation and the color shift. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. The α-λ plots have been used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed methodology. Results show that the predicted degradation for the lamps tracks the true degradation observed during 85°C/85%RH during accelerated life test fairly closely within the ±20% confidence bounds. Correlation of model prediction with experimental results indicates that the presented methodology allows the early identification of the onset of failure much prior to development of complete failure distributions and can be used for assessing the damage state of SSLs in fairly large deployments. It is expected that, the new prediction technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.
Bayesian probability↗
Insights into accelerated aging of SSL luminaires
Although solid-state lighting (SSL) products are often intended to have product lifetimes of 15 years or more, the rapid change in technology has created a need for accelerated life tests (ALTs) that can be performed in the span of several months. A critical element of interpreting results from any systems-level ALT is understanding of the impact of the test environment on each component. Because of its ubiquity in electronics, the use of temperature-humidity environments as potential ALTs for SSL luminaires was investigated. Results from testing of populations of three commercial 6” downlights in environments of 85oC and 85% relative humidity (RH) and 75oC and 75% RH are reported. These test environments were found to accelerate lumen depreciation of the entire luminaire optical system, including LEDs, lenses, and reflectors. The effects of aging were found to depend strongly on both the optical materials that were used and the design of the luminaire; this shows that the lumen maintenance behavior of SSL luminaires must be addressed at the optical systems level. Temperature-Humidity ALTs can be a useful test in understand lumainaire depreciation provided that proper consideration is given to the different aging rates of various materials. Since the impact of the temperature-humidity environment varies among components of the optical system, uniform aging of all system components in a single test is difficult to achieve.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Integrating GLL-Weibull Distribution Within a Bayesian Framework for Life Prediction of Shape Memory Alloy Spring Undergoing Thermo-mechanical Fatigue
The present paper tackles an important but unmapped problem of the reliability estimations of smart materials. First, an experimental setup is developed for accelerated life testing of the shape memory alloy (SMA) springs. Generalized log-linear Weibull (GLL-Weibull) distribution-based novel approach is then developed for SMA spring life estimation. Applied stimulus (voltage), elongation and cycles of operation are used as inputs for the life prediction model. The values of the parameter coefficients of the model provide better interpretability compared to artificial intelligence based life prediction approaches. In addition, the model also considers the effect of operating conditions, making it generic for a range of the operating conditions. Moreover, a Bayesian framework is used to continuously update the prediction with the actual degradation value of the springs, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the data and improving the prediction accuracy. In addition, the deterioration of material with number of cycles is also investigated using thermogravimetric analysis and scanning electron microscopy.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Long operating lifetime mid-infrared LEDs based on black phosphorus
Abstract Black phosphorus (BP) is a narrow bandgap layered semiconductor promising for mid-infrared optoelectronic applications. BP-based devices have been shown to surpass state-of-the-art mid-infrared detectors and light-emitting diodes (LEDs) in terms of performance. Despite their device advantages, the material’s inherent instability in the air could hinder its use in practical optoelectronic applications. Here, we investigated the impact of passivation on the device lifetime of BP LEDs, which deteriorate in a matter of seconds without using passivation. The lifetime is significantly extended with an Al 2 O 3 passivation layer and nitrogen packaging via atomic layer deposition and ultra-violet curable resin sealing. The operational lifetime (half-life) at room temperature is extrapolated to be ~15,000 h with an initial power density of 340 mW/cm 2 based on accelerated life testing. The present results indicate that efficient BP optoelectronics can be highly robust through simple and scalable packaging technologies, with important practical implications for mid-infrared applications.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Electron beam induced growth of tin whiskers
We have investigated the influence of electron irradiation on tin whisker growth. Sputtered tin samples exposed to electron beam of 6 MeV energy exhibited fast whisker growth, while control samples did not grow any whiskers. The statistics of e-beam induced whiskers was found to follow the log-normal distribution. The observed accelerated whisker growth is attributed to electrostatic effects due to charges trapped in an insulating substrate. These results offer promise for establishing whisker-related accelerated life testing protocols.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Degradation and corresponding failure mechanism for GaN-based LEDs
The degradation behaviors of high power GaN-based vertical blue LEDs on Si substrates were measured using in-situ accelerated life test. The results show that the dominant failure mechanism would be different during the operation. Besides that, the corresponding associated failure mechanisms were investigated systematically by using different analysis technologies, such as Scan Electron Microscopy, Reflectivity spectroscopy, Transient Thermal Analysis, Raman Spectra, etc. It is shown that initially, the failure modes were mainly originated from the semiconductor die and interconnect, while afterwards, the following serious deterioration of the radiant fluxes was attributed to the package. The interface material and quality, such as die attach and frame, play an important role in determining the thermal performance and reliability. In addition, the heating effect during the operation will also release the compressive strain in the chip. These findings will help to improve the reliability of GaN-based LEDs, especially for the LEDs with vertical structure.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗