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At least 37 records · Page 2

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A search for X-ray emission associated with the great attractor

A search is reported for X-ray emission associated with the object, dubbed the 'great attractor', which has been postulated as the cause of the coherent deviations from the Hubble flow which are observed in nearby parts of the universe. The hypothesis that a substantial fraction of the dynamical mass of the great attractor exists in the form of rich clusters of galaxies is ruled out. The possibility is considered that a substantial fraction of the mass of the great attractor could exist in a form which would increase the apparently diffuse X-ray surface brightness. The observational upper limit to the diffuse X-ray sky surface brightness enhancement in the general direction of the great attractor allows interesting limits to be set on the fraction of the dynamical mass of the great attractor which can exist in the form of X-ray-luminous material.

Jahoda, Keith↗

Regular attractors and nonautonomous perturbations of them

We study regular global attractors of dissipative dynamical semigroups with discrete or continuous time and we investigate attractors for nonautonomous perturbations of such semigroups. The main theorem states that the regularity of global attractors is preserved under small nonautonomous perturbations. Moreover, nonautonomous regular global attractors remain exponential and robust. We apply these general results to model nonautonomous reaction-diffusion systems in a bounded domain of R{sup 3} with time-dependent external forces. Bibliography: 22 titles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Attractor behaviour in ELKO cosmology

We study the dynamics of ELKO in the context of accelerated phase of our universe. To avoid the fine tuning problem associated with the initial conditions, it is required that the dynamical equations lead to an early-time attractor. In the earlier works, it was shown that the dynamical equations containing ELKO fields do not lead to early-time stable fixed points. In this work, using redefinition of variables, we show that ELKO cosmology admits early-time stable fixed points. More interestingly, we show that ELKO cosmology admit two sets of attractor points corresponding to slow and fast-roll inflation. The fast-roll inflation attractor point is unique for ELKO as it is independent of the form of the potential. We also discuss the plausible choice of interaction terms in these two sets of attractor points and constraints on the coupling constant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Features from the non-attractor beginning of inflation

We study the effects of the non-attractor initial conditions for the canonical single-field inflation. The non-attractor stage can last only several e -folding numbers, and should be followed by hilltop inflation. This two-stage evolution leads to large scale suppression in the primordial power spectrum, which is favored by recent observations. Moreover we give a detailed calculation of primordial non-Gaussianity due to the ''from non-attractor to slow-roll'' transition, and find step features in the local and equilateral shapes. We conclude that a plateau-like inflaton potential with an initial non-attractor phase yields interesting features in both power spectrum and bispectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sourcing dark matter and dark energy from α-attractors

In [1], Kallosh and Linde drew attention to a new family of superconformal inflationary potentials, subsequently called α-attractors [2]. The α-attractor family can interpolate between a large class of inflationary models. It also has an important theoretical underpinning within the framework of supergravity. We demonstrate that the α-attractors have an even wider appeal since they may describe dark matter and perhaps even dark energy. The dark matter associated with the α-attractors, which we call α-dark matter (αDM), shares many of the attractive features of fuzzy dark matter, with V (φ) = ½ m {sup 2}φ{sup 2}, while having none of its drawbacks. Like fuzzy dark matter, αDM can have a large Jeans length which could resolve the cusp-core and substructure problems faced by standard cold dark matter. αDM also has an appealing tracker property which enables it to converge to the late-time dark matter asymptote, ( w ) ≅ 0, from a wide range of initial conditions. It thus avoids the enormous fine-tuning problems faced by the m {sup 2}φ{sup 2} potential in describing dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

ATTRACTOR: Toward Trustworthy and Trusted Autonomous Systems

The question of what it means and what it takes for an autonomous system to consider another autonomous system justifiably trustworthy must be addressed by all who seek to integrate intelligent machine agents into real-world operations. A satisfactory answer to this question is an essential component in accepting autonomous machine decision-making in safety-critical and time-critical environments, such as aviation. Historically, simulation platforms for test and evaluation of complex systems have proven to be effective in assessing performance and contributing to decisions on the fitness of systems to operate in current general and commercial aviation airspace. Moreover, simulations have informed the definition of safety-critical constraints. However, as machine systems progressively take on responsibilities for decision-making traditionally supplied by humans, simulations require enhancement. Mixed reality simulation that integrates real-world platforms and data or high-fidelity simulation data in a sim-to-flight paradigm provides insight into agent interaction and the rationale behind autonomous agent decision-making as well as the capacity for seamless integrated implementation, testing, and operation of systems. Strong simulation capabilities are especially important in the presence of algorithms that hold great promise in decision-making yet increase the uncertainty in the system. Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) is a subproject of NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) Project. ATTRACTOR’s objective is to build a basis for understanding trust and trustworthiness in multi-agent autonomous teams, and thus to inform future certification of safety-critical and time-critical autonomous systems in aviation. Because the concepts of trust and trustworthiness must be addressed in a context, ATTRACTOR has chosen Search and Rescue (SAR) in dynamic and unstructured environments, with emphasis on search, as its design reference mission (DRM). During dynamic planning and execution of trajectory-based operations, autonomous agents determine their trajectories given an assigned mission or missions and call for assistance from an appropriate teammate when needed. This experience along with the attendant human-machine and machine-machine interactions, serve as a platform for developing approaches to identifying and measuring trustworthiness and increasing trust. In this paper, we give an overview of some of ATTRACTOR’s research and development activities, findings, and ongoing work.

ATTRACTOR↗

Exact solution for the non-equilibrium attractor in number-conserving relaxation time approximation

We extend previous studies of the conformal 0+1d kinetic non-equilibrium attractor in relaxation time approximation by enforcing number conservation through the introduction of a dynamical fugacity (chemical potential). We derive two coupled integral equations for the effective temperature and fugacity which are then solved numerically to obtain the exact solution. The resulting solutions exhibit convergence to a unique nonequilibrium attractor when the scaled moments of the distribution function are plotted as a function of the rescaled time w = τ /τeq. This occurs even though the system is out of chemical equilibrium at late times. In addition, compared to the case where number conservation was not imposed, we find that the moments converge to their respective attractors more quickly, particularly for moments with m = 0. Finally, we compare the resulting attractor moments with predictions from different hydrodynamic frameworks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Resonances in a Chaotic Attractor Crisis of the Lorenz Flow

Local bifurcations of stationary points and limit cycles have successfully been characterized in terms of the critical exponents of these solutions. Lyapunov exponents and their associated covariant Lyapunov vectors have been proposed as tools for supporting the understanding of critical transitions in chaotic dynamical systems. However, it is in general not clear how the statistical properties of dynamical systems change across a boundary crisis during which a chaotic attractor collides with a saddle. This behavior is investigated here for a boundary crisis in the Lorenz flow, for which neither the Lyapunov exponents nor the covariant Lyapunov vectors provide a criterion for the crisis. Instead, the convergence of the time evolution of probability densities to the invariant measure, governed by the semigroup of transfer operators, is expected to slow down at the approach of the crisis. Such convergence is described by the eigenvalues of the generator of this semigroup, which can be divided into two families, referred to as the stable and unstable Ruelle–Pollicott resonances, respectively. The former describes the convergence of densities to the attractor (or escape from a repeller) and is estimated from many short time series sampling the state space. The latter is responsible for the decay of correlations, or mixing, and can be estimated from a long times series, invoking ergodicity. It is found numerically for the Lorenz flow that the stable resonances do approach the imaginary axis during the crisis, as is indicative of the loss of global stability of the attractor. On the other hand, the unstable resonances, and a fortiori the decay of correlations, do not flag the proximity of the crisis, thus questioning the usual design of early warning indicators of boundary crises of chaotic attractors and the applicability of response theory close to such crises.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Non-conformal attractor in boost-invariant plasmas

We study the dissipative evolution of (0+1)-dimensionally expanding media with Bjorken symmetry using the Boltzmann equation for massive particles in relaxation-time approximation. Breaking conformal symmetry by a mass induces a non-zero bulk viscous pressure in the medium. It is shown that even a small mass (in units of the local temperature) drastically modifies the well-known attractor for the shear Reynolds number previously observed in massless systems. For generic nonzero particle mass, neither the shear nor the bulk viscous pressure relax quickly to a non-equilibrium attractor; they approach the hydrodynamic limit only late, at small values of the inverse Reynolds numbers. Only the longitudinal pressure, which is a combination of thermal, shear and bulk viscous pressures, continues to show early approach to a far-off-equilibrium attractor, driven by the rapid longitudinal expansion at early times. Second-order dissipative hydrodynamics based on a gradient expansion around locally isotropic thermal equilibrium fails to reproduce this attractor.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dark energy from α-attractors: phenomenology and observational constraints

The possibility of linking inflation and late cosmic accelerated expansion using the $\alpha$-attractor models has received increasing attention due to their physical motivation. In the early universe, $\alpha$-attractors provide an inflationary mechanism compatible with Planck satellite CMB observations and predictive for future gravitational wave CMB modes. Additionally $\alpha$-attractors can be written as quintessence models with a potential that connects a power law regime with a plateau or uplifted exponential, allowing a late cosmic accelerated expansion that can mimic behavior near a cosmological constant. In this paper we study a generalized dark energy $\alpha$-attractor model. We thoroughly investigate its phenomenology, including the role of all model parameters and the possibility of large-scale tachyonic instability clustering. We confirm the relation that $1+w\sim 1/\alpha$ (while the gravitational wave power $r\sim\alpha$) so these models predict that a signature should appear in either the primordial B-modes or in late time deviation from a cosmological constant. We constrain the model parameters with current datasets, including the cosmic microwave background (Planck 2015 angular power spectrum, polarization and lensing), baryon acoustic oscillations (BOSS DR12) and supernovae (Pantheon compressed). Our findings demonstrate that expansion histories close to a cosmological constant exist in large regions of the parameter space, not requiring a fine-tuning of the parameters or initial conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Non-equilibrium Attractor: Beyond Hydrodynamics

The quark-gluon plasma created in heavy-ion collisions is not in local thermal equilibrium at early times. Despite this, dissipative hydrodynamics describes the evolution of the energy-momentum tensor quite well after only roughly 0.5 - 1 fm/c. This can be understood using the concept of a non-equilibrium dynamical attractor. The attractor is a uniquely identifiable solution to the dynamical equations to which all solutions are drawn as the system evolves. Once solutions collapse onto the non-equilibrium attractor they are ``pseudo-thermalized'' in the sense that they have lost information about the precise initial conditions used, but are not yet in exact local thermal equilibrium. Here, I review recent work which demonstrates that there exists a non-equilibrium attractor in full kinetic theory models which goes beyond the usual low-order momentum moments considered in hydrodynamical treatments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A search for a dynamical attractor in Cygnus X-1

A method used for searching for low-dimensional attractors in fluctuating signals is applied to the aperiodicity observed in Cyg X-1. The analysis technique for determining the dimension of an attractor given its light curve, and the practical limitations in applying the technique, are described. The requirement of large amounts of low-noise data is found to be very important in using the technique. No low-dimensional attractor is found for the set of Cyg X-1 data used, but evidence of an attractor with large dimension may be present.

Lochner, James C.↗

Statistical Properties for Flows with Unbounded Roof Function, Including the Lorenz Attractor

For geometric Lorenz attractors (including the classical Lorenz attractor) we obtain a greatly simplified proof of the central limit theorem which applies also to the more general class of codimension two singular hyperbolic attractors. We also obtain the functional central limit theorem and moment estimates, as well as iterated versions of these results. A consequence is deterministic homogenisation (convergence to a stochastic differential equation) for fast-slow dynamical systems whenever the fast dynamics is singularly hyperbolic of codimension two.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Is the Hénon attractor chaotic?

By performing a systematic study of the Hénon map, we find low-period sinks for parameter values extremely close to the classical ones. This raises the question whether or not the well-known Hénon attractor—the attractor of the Hénon map existing for the classical parameter values—is a strange attractor, or simply a stable periodic orbit. Using results from our study, we conclude that even if the latter were true, it would be practically impossible to establish this by computing trajectories of the map.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Architecture of chaotic attractors for flows in the absence of any singular point

Some chaotic attractors produced by three-dimensional dynamical systems without any singular point have now been identified, but explaining how they are structured in the state space remains an open question. We here want to explain—in the particular case of the Wei system—such a structure, using one-dimensional sets obtained by vanishing two of the three derivatives of the flow. The neighborhoods of these sets are made of points which are characterized by the eigenvalues of a 2 × 2 matrix describing the stability of flow in a subspace transverse to it. We will show that the attractor is spiralling and twisted in the neighborhood of one-dimensional sets where points are characterized by a pair of complex conjugated eigenvalues. We then show that such one-dimensional sets are also useful in explaining the structure of attractors produced by systems with singular points, by considering the case of the Lorenz system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Design and implementation of grid multi-scroll fractional-order chaotic attractors

This paper proposes a novel approach for generating multi-scroll chaotic attractors in multi-directions for fractional-order (FO) systems. The stair nonlinear function series and the saturated nonlinear function are combined to extend equilibrium points with index 2 in a new FO linear system. With the help of stability theory of FO systems, stability of its equilibrium points is analyzed, and the chaotic behaviors are validated through phase portraits, Lyapunov exponents, and Poincaré section. Choosing the order 0.96 as an example, a circuit for generating 2-D grid multiscroll chaotic attractors is designed, and 2-D 9 × 9 grid FO attractors are observed at most. Numerical simulations and circuit experimental results show that the method is feasible and the designed circuit is correct.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Scaling attractors in interacting teleparallel dark energy

It has been proposed recently the existence of a non-minimal coupling between a canonical scalar field (quintessence) and gravity in the framework of teleparallel gravity, motivated by similar constructions in the context of General Relativity. The dynamics of the model, known as teleparallel dark energy, has been further developed, but no scaling attractor has been found. Here we consider a model in which the non-minimal coupling is ruled by a dynamically changing coefficient α≡f{sub ,φ}/(f){sup 1/2}, with f(φ) an arbitrary function of the scalar field φ. It is shown that in this case the existence of scaling attractors is possible, which means that the universe will eventually enter these scaling attractors, regardless of the initial conditions. As a consequence, the cosmological coincidence problem could be alleviated without fine-tunings.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗