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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Two-Stage Approach for PV Inverter Engagement in Power Factor Correction and Voltage Regulation

The rapid integration of distributed energy resources, like solar photovoltaics (PVs), can lead to overvolt-age challenges due to reverse power flow and a noticeable decrease in power factor at the substation interface. While existing literature extensively explores utilizing smart inverter capabilities for reactive power flexibility using a volt-var curve (VVC), obtaining time-varying operating points of such curves in real-time is challenging due to computational demands and communication requirements. Similarly, employing optimization-based approaches for reactive power control and active voltage regulation in large-scale distribution feeders is difficult due to the complexity of the problem and the challenges in effectively engaging customer-owned resources. This paper proposes a two-stage strategy to harness smart inverters for reactive power support. The first stage formulates short-term planning by optimally designing VVCs (on a daily or hourly basis) for large-scale solar PVs based on projected system needs and communicating optimal curves to smart inverters in advance. Subsequently, the second stage employs a transactive-based method to involve customer-owned PVs for reactive power support, effectively enhancing overall system performance and addressing real-time demands. In conclusion, the efficacy of this approach will be demonstrated using real-world distribution circuits provided by Vermont Electric Power Company (VELCO) and Vermont Electric Cooperative (VEC).

Poudel, Shiva [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual aging pathways of Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts: Hydrothermal vs. sulfur-induced deactivation

Hydrothermal aging (HTA) and chemical poisoning are two primary factors contributing to the real-world degradation of Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts. Investigating field-returned samples offers valuable insights into performance degradation caused by these mechanisms. However, the simultaneous presence of both deactivation pathways complicates the isolation of their individual effects in post-mortem analyses. In this study, we separately prepared model Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts subjected to hydrothermal-aging and sulfur-induced chemical poisoning. Using various characterization techniques, we elucidated the specific role of each aging process in catalyst deactivation and compared the results to real-world field-aged catalysts. Our findings show that hydrothermal aging at 650 °C for 100 h caused dealumination of the zeolite framework but no significant CuO x cluster formation. In contrast, sulfur aging (via sulfur exposure, calcination at 550 °C, and desulfation up to 750 °C) led to CuO x formation without any observable dealumination. On model catalysts, sulfur poisoning was found to reduce Cu mobility and the amount of active Cu sites, thus degrading catalyst activity. Although some activity was recovered upon desulfation, a portion of the initial catalyst activity remained irreversibly lost due to CuO x formation. We demonstrate that this occurs because sulfated species impede the ability of multi-nuclear Cu species (e.g., Cu dimers) to split back into their isolated form, leading to CuSO 4 -clusters that oxidatively desulfate to CuO x species. This degradation pathway explains the significant reduction in activity of field-aged samples, where substantial CuSO 4 -cluster accumulation leads to reduced active Cu and subsequent conversion to CuO x . Furthermore, the conclusions from model catalysts were extended directly to field-aged commercial samples, elucidating the decline in activity and chemical properties during field deployment.

Catalyst Deactivation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities (Revision 1)

This project will demonstrate a multi-hazard time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for nuclear facilities considering aging-related deterioration of structures. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor subjected to seismic mainshock-aftershock sequences considering the aging of the containment structure will be used as a case study to demonstrate the multi-hazard PRA approach. Using advanced modeling and simulation, seismic mainshock-aftershock fragility functions will be simulated for the containment structure considering aging effects. A multi-hazard PRA model for a generic PWR reactor will be built to quantify the multi-hazard core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) with explicit time-dependent modeling of event sequences. To date, the cascading impacts of multi-hazards are not adequately accounted for in the PRA models for nuclear facilities. In addition, for both initial and periodic evaluation of facilities to withstand natural phenomena hazards (NPH), deterioration of the SSCs due to aging and other effects is not adequately considered. By advancing multi-hazard considerations accounting for aging effects, this project will contribute to improved understanding of the safety of aging nuclear facilities. Project outcomes such as the multi-hazard CDF and LERF will also allow facility owners to optimize upgrade and retrofit protocols. This project is divided into two components: (1) advanced modeling and simulations; and (2) multi-hazard PRA. For the first component, Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) and BlackBear codes will be used to simulate the seismic response and damage of a containment structure under cascading mainshock-aftershock sequences with aging effects. Uncertainties related to the seismic inputs, material parameters, and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity will be identified and propagated to the fragility functions. These fragility functions, which consider aging effects, will be time dependent. The second component will take the fragility information from the first component to build a multi-hazard time-dependent PRA model starting from a generic PWR model to evaluate the multi-hazard CDF and LERF and characterize the associated consequences. For this component, OpenPRA Web Application and SAPHIRE code will be used. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of considering the cascading impacts of multi-hazards for PRA. Moreover, many of the reactors in the current nuclear fleet in the United States (US) are already operating well beyond their initially planned design life, and applications for further extensions to operating licenses are being considered. Therefore, considering multi-hazard effects and aging deterioration in the NPH risk assessment process will contribute to the safety of both existing and future nuclear facilities. Outcomes of this project will thus directly benefit the standards DOE-STD-1020-16 and DOE-HDBK-1224-18.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multilayer network analysis of Alzheimer's disease pathogenesis: Roles for p‐tau, synaptic peptides, and physical activity

INTRODUCTION: In the aging brain, cognitive abilities emerge from the coordination of complex pathways arising from a balance between protective lifestyle and environmental factors and accumulation of neuropathologies. METHODS: As part of the Rush Memory and Aging Project (n = 440), we measured accelerometer-based actigraphy, cognitive performance, and after brain autopsy, selected reaction monitoring mass spectrometry. Multilevel network analysis was used to examine the relationships among the molecular machinery of vesicular neurotransmission, Alzheimer's disease (AD) neuropathology, cognition, and late-life physical activity. RESULTS: Synaptic peptides involved in neuronal secretory function were the most influential contributors to the multilayer network, reflecting the complex interdependencies among AD pathology, synaptic processes, and late-life cognition. Older adults with lower physical activity evidenced stronger adverse relationships among phosphorylated tau peptides, markers of synaptic integrity, and tangle pathology. DISCUSSION: Network-based approaches simultaneously model interdependent biological processes and advance understanding of the role of physical activity in age-associated cognitive impairment. Highlights: Network-based approaches simultaneously model interdependent biological processes. Secretory synaptic peptides were influential contributors to the multilayer network. Older adults with lower physical activity had adverse relationships among pathology. There was interdependence among phosphorylated tau, synaptic integrity, and tangles. Network methods elucidate the role of physical activity in cognitive impairment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of loblolly pine anatomical fractions and tree age on oil yield and composition during fast pyrolysis

Fast pyrolysis of woody materials is a technology pathway for producing renewable fuels and chemicals. This is a presentation of isolating needles, bark, and stemwood from a single tree as well as isolating stemwood and whole tree samples from the same species of tree with different ages and pyrolyzing each individually as well as in mixtures. This gives insight into the role of tree anatomical fractions on the resulting intermediate oil product as well as into interactions between these components. The highest carbon content oil (45.1 wt% as received) was produced from a one-to-one mixture of stemwood and needles, followed by the pure stemwood (43.4–43.8 wt% as received), while the lowest oil carbon content was from a one-to-one blend of bark and needles (26.7 wt% as received). The pyrolysis oil yield (combining oil and aqueous where separation occurred) varied from 54 wt% as received (needles) to 72.3 wt% as received (stemwood). When comparing trees of different ages, we find the change in the ratio of the anatomical fractions is a dominant factor in the product composition and yields, while the product composition and yields vary slightly with tree age when only the stemwood is pyrolyzed. Here, in this study, we present the bench-scale pyrolysis, yields, and product characterization of loblolly pine feedstocks (13- vs. 23 year-old, residues, air-classified residues, whole tree, needles, bark, and stemwood).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Timing based clustering of childhood BMI trajectories reveals differential maturational patterns; Study in the Northern Finland Birth Cohorts 1966 and 1986

Children’s biological age does not always correspond to their chronological age. In the case of BMI trajectories, this can appear as phase variation, which can be seen as shift, stretch, or shrinking between trajectories. With maturation thought of as a process moving towards the final state - adult BMI, we assessed whether children can be divided into latent groups reflecting similar maturational age of BMI. The groups were characterised by early factors and time-related features of the trajectories. We used data from two general population birth cohort studies, Northern Finland Birth Cohorts 1966 and 1986 (NFBC1966 and NFBC1986). Height (n = 6329) and weight (n = 6568) measurements were interpolated in 34 shared time points using B-splines, and BMI values were calculated between 3 months to 16 years. Pairwise phase distances of 2999 females and 3163 males were used as a similarity measure in k-medoids clustering. We identified three clusters of trajectories in females and males (Type 1: females, n = 1566, males, n = 1669; Type 2: females, n = 1028, males, n = 973; Type 3: females, n = 405, males, n = 521). Similar distinct timing patterns were identified in males and females. The clusters did not differ by sex, or early growth determinants studied. Trajectory cluster Type 1 reflected to the shape of what is typically illustrated as the childhood BMI trajectory in literature. However, the other two have not been identified previously. Type 2 pattern was more common in the NFBC1966 suggesting a generational shift in BMI maturational patterns.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of spent nuclear fuel canister surface roughness using surface replicating molds

In this study we present a replication method to determine surface roughness and to identify surface features when a sample cannot be directly analyzed by conventional techniques. As a demonstration, this method was applied to an unused spent nuclear fuel dry storage canister to determine variation across different surface features. In this study, an initial material down-selection was performed to determine the best molding agent and determined that non-modified Polytek PlatSil23-75 provided the most accurate representation of the surface while providing good usability. Other materials that were considered include Polygel Brush-On 35 polyurethane rubber (with and without Pol-ease 2300 release agent), Polytek PlatSil73-25 silicone rubber (with and without PlatThix thickening agent and Pol-ease 2300 release agent), and Express STD vinylpolysiloxane impression putty. The ability of PlatSil73-25 to create an accurate surface replica was evaluated by creating surface molds of several locations on surface roughness standards representing ISO grade surfaces N 3 , N 5 , N 7 , and N 8 . Overall, the molds were able to accurately reproduce the expected roughness average (R a ) values, but systematically over-estimated the peak-valley maximum roughness (R z ) values. Using a 3D printed sample cell, several locations across the stainless steel spent nuclear fuel canister were sampled to determine the surface roughness. These measurements provided information regarding variability in normal surface roughness across the canister as well as a detailed evaluation on specific surface features (e.g., welds, grind marks, etc.). The results of these measurements can support development of dry storage canister ageing management programs, as surface roughness is an important factor for surface dust deposition and accumulation. This method can be applied more broadly to different surfaces beyond stainless steel to provide rapid, accurate surface replications for analytical evaluation by profilometry.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic insights into N 2 O formation as a side product in NH 3 -SCR over small pore Cu-zeolites

Here, the present contribution provides clarity to N 2 O formation mechanisms and key influencing factors during low temperature NH 3 -SCR, with the goal of enabling the rational design of advanced SCR catalysts with low greenhouse gas impact. By studying more than 50 small pore Cu-exchanged zeolite SCR catalyst samples, including model catalysts synthesized in our laboratories and state-of-the-art industrial catalysts, we explored a wide range of factors affecting N 2 O formation. These factors included Cu loading, support Si/Al ratio, support topology, catalyst aging, reaction temperature and reactant feed composition effects. We probed N 2 O formation under both steady-state SCR, and during NH 4 NO 3 decomposition via temperature programmed desorption (TPD). Finally, we used DFT to probe energetics of possible N 2 O formation pathways. Based on these studies, we confirm that low temperature N 2 O formation occurs via multiple reaction pathways that all involve NH 4 NO 3 and are supported by Cu moieties that facilitate in-situ NO oxidation to NO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

RAIS Slope Factors for Radionuclides

For a given radionuclide, Slope Factors (SFs) represent the ELCR equivalent per unit intake (i.e., ingestion or inhalation) or external exposure of that radionuclide. These SFs are used to convert a radionuclide concentration in soil, air, water, or foodstuffs to a radiation ELCR. The primary use of SFs, also called risk coefficients, is to compute the ELCR resulting from site-related exposures. This is accomplished by multiplying the route-specific SF by the CDI of each radionuclide of potential concern for each route of exposure. Ingestion and inhalation slope factors are central estimates in a linear model of the age-averaged, lifetime attributable radiation cancer incidence (fatal and nonfatal cancer) risk per unit of activity inhaled or ingested, expressed as risk/picocurie (pCi). External exposure SFs are central estimates of lifetime attributable radiation cancer incidence risk for each year of exposure to external radiation from photon-emitting radionuclides distributed uniformly in a thick layer of soil, expressed as risk/year per pCi/gram soil. External exposure SF units can also be risk/year per pCi/square centimeters (cm2) of soil. When combined with site-specific media concentration data and appropriate exposure assumptions, SFs can be used to estimate lifetime cancer risks to members of the general population due to radionuclide exposures. The SFs presented on are updated values from Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 supplement using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 107 decay data. The derivation and values are found in “Calculations of Slope Factors and Dose Coefficients” (ORNL, 2014).

Noto, Katie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2026

Out With the Old: Empirical Trends in U.S. Land‐Based Wind Turbine Decommissioning and Repowering

A growing number of wind turbines (WTs) across the globe are now reaching or exceeding their expected service lifetime; WT decommissioning is on the rise. Accordingly, questions pertaining to WT end-of-life have risen in importance in policy and practice. Yet, research on the various factors relating to WT decommissioning is relatively sparse. Moreover, the key assumptions underpinning that prior research (e.g., the lifespan of WTs, characteristics of WTs being decommissioned, and whether the site is repowered with new WTs) have never been empirically tested across a large set of decommissioned WTs. Leveraging a uniquely comprehensive and spatially explicit dataset of decommissioned WTs in the United States, this research analyzes spatial, technological, and temporal trends in WT decommissioning and develops a novel predictive model for WT decommissioning. Our analysis pinpoints more than 12,400 WTs that have been fully decommissioned in the United States., the majority of which have been relatively old (> 30 years) and small (< 200 kW). While a WT's age alone is a good predictor of the likelihood of decommissioning, other factors such as the size of the WT and recent performance are also important and significant predictors. Most sites where decommissioning has occurred have seen subsequent repowering, with repowered plants featuring substantially fewer WTs (−86 on average) and higher rated plant capacity (+62 MW on average). Many existing WTs in the U.S. are approaching the end of their expected life with roughly 7500 being 20 or more years old. Findings can help policymakers and stakeholders begin preparing for this potential wave of future decommissioning and repowering.

Decommissioning / End-of-life↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cognitive aging outcomes are related to both tau pathology and maintenance of cingulate cortex structure

Abstract INTRODUCTION Successful cognitive aging is related to both maintaining brain structure and avoiding Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology, but how these factors interplay is unclear. METHODS A total of 109 cognitively normal older adults (70+ years old) underwent amyloid beta (Aβ) and tau positron emission tomography (PET) imaging, structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and cognitive testing. Cognitive aging was quantified using the cognitive age gap (CAG), subtracting chronological age from predicted cognitive age. RESULTS Lower CAG (younger cognitive age) was related to slower decline in episodic memory, multi‐domain cognition, and atrophy of the midcingulate cortex (MCC). Lower entorhinal cortical tau was linked to slower decline in episodic memory, multi‐domain cognition, and hippocampal atrophy. DISCUSSION These results suggest that aging outcomes may be influenced by two independent pathways: one associated with tau accumulation, affecting primarily memory and hippocampal atrophy, and another involving tau‐independent structural preservation of the MCC, benefiting multi‐domain cognition over time. Highlights Younger cognitive age (lower cognitive age gap [CAG]) is related to slower cognitive decline. Lower CAG is linked to slower midcingulate cortex (MCC) atrophy. Reduced tau in the entorhinal cortex is related to less hippocampal atrophy and cognitive decline. Structural preservation of the MCC benefits multi‐domain cognition over time. Two independent pathways influence cognitive aging: tau accumulation and MCC preservation.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Flexibility Framework (Final Technical Report)

The Hydropower Flexibility Framework (HFF) tool focuses on providing the hydropower community with an effective means of assessing optimized hydropower plant outcomes. This tool combines both site specific characteristics, which act to constrain plant operation, and the hydrologic and grid characteristics which drive hydropower plant operation. The hydropower community faces a confluence of factors which drive the importance of developing such a capability, including an aging hydropower fleet subject to a range of modernization opportunities, a large number of hydropower plant relicensing activities which may affect operational requirements, an electrical grid with increasing levels of variable resources which must be balanced to maintain grid stability, and climate change influencing riverine hydrologic patterns outside of design characteristics. With support from the hydropower community, the project team developed the HFF tool and demonstrated the tool through a series of Use Cases. This guidance was developed as a part of the larger HFF tool User’s Manual (see Appendix B), a resource designed to inform other users and to empower community uptake of the tool. The HFF tool, hosted at https://hfftool.com/, was developed with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). EPRI is currently exploring alternatives to support the continued maintenance and functionally of the online tool.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eight decades of research on the long-term health effects of radiation in atomic bomb survivors and their offspring

Abstract This year marks the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Over the past eight decades, large-scale cohort studies of atomic bomb survivors and their offspring conducted by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission, have provided critical insights into the long-term health effects of radiation exposure. Key findings include early identification of radiation-associated leukemia, as well as excess risks of all solid cancers combined, and most individual cancer sites. Observed radiation dose–response relationships have generally followed a linear-quadratic model for leukemia and a linear model for all solid cancers. Recent findings indicating possible upward curvature in the dose–response for all solid cancers may reflect underlying heterogeneity in factors related to individual cancer sites and should be explored further. Generally, younger age at exposure, lower attained age, and female sex appear to show greater radiation sensitivity for all solid cancers combined but results differ by individual cancer site. Recent studies have also identified potential radiation-related excesses for non-cancer diseases such as cataracts, various circulatory diseases, and others. Studies of heritable effects on the offspring of exposed atomic bomb survivors, in contrast, have shown no elevated risk to date in offspring from parental radiation exposure, either at the molecular or disease level. With the cooperation of the atomic bomb survivors and their families, Radiation Effects Research Foundation’s research will continue to play a crucial role in informing the health of survivors, their families, and global radiation protection in the decades to come.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic drivers of gut microbiome diversity

Abstract The gut microbiome plays a central role in orchestrating metabolic, immune, and neurological functions essential for human health. While extensive research has explored the effects of diseases and pathological conditions on gut microbiome composition, the influence of demographic factors remains underexplored, limiting our understanding of microbiome variations in disease states. This study addresses this gap by investigating the impact of demographic variables, including age, sex, and geography, on gut microbiome diversity in healthy individuals. Using the American Gut Project’s extensive dataset and the QIIME2 bioinformatics pipeline, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of microbial profiles across diverse demographic groups. Our results revealed significant age-related shifts in microbial richness and composition, and geographic location strongly influenced phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, sex exhibited limited impact on microbial diversity within healthy BMI ranges. These findings highlight the critical role of demographic factors in shaping gut microbiome diversity, providing a foundational framework to better contextualize disease-related microbiome variations and advance personalized healthcare approaches.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hygrothermal aging effects on polyimide and acrylate-based adhesive materials in high-performance flat-flex cable assemblies

Flat-flex assemblies are widely used across a diverse range of technologies, including consumer electronics, automotive systems, aerospace and defense applications, and medical devices, due to their compact form factor and flexibility. However, environmental stressors like temperature and humidity are known to degrade performance over time, though the main mechanisms for degradation remain unknown. Here, in this work, we examined the aging behavior of copper/polyimide/adhesive laminate systems under varying temperature and humidity conditions, focusing on material degradation and its effects on mechanical and dielectric properties. Results show that peel strength and breakdown voltage decrease with exposure time, temperature, and humidity; spectroscopic characterization revealed that the adhesive, and not the polyimide, is the weak link in the material stack-up. The adhesive, identified as a butyl acrylate-acrylonitrile (BA-AN) copolymer, exhibited age-related spectral changes that correlated with exposure severity and duration. Hydrolysis at BA ester and AN nitrile groups was identified as the primary degradation mechanism, producing amides, acids, and alcohols. We developed a mechanistic model that connects kinetic parameters for BA-AN spectral band decay to peel strength and breakdown voltage, and implicates hydrolysis at the AN moiety, not BA, in performance decrements. Modeling predictions at ambient conditions indicate faster decline in peel strength than dielectric strength at early times, followed by plateauing of both properties at longer times. These findings provide critical insights into laminate aging mechanisms and highlight the importance of addressing BA-AN degradation to improve the long-term reliability of these systems in high-humidity environments.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2026

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Inspection of Advanced Manufacturing via Process-Scale Digital Twins (Abbreviated Report)

Inspection and certification comprise the most significant bottlenecks in advanced manufacturing for NNSA applications, often requiring far more time and resources than the fabrication of the parts themselves. Traditional methods, such as manual review and X-ray computed tomography, are not only slow and costly, but also struggle to provide a clear connection between manufacturing instructions and the final performance of critical components. This gap limits both the agility and assurance needed to support the modernization and safety of the United States nuclear stockpile. In response, our Strategic Initiative established a digital twin framework that integrates realtime process monitoring, automated data analysis, and immersive virtual reality collaboration into a unified inspection pipeline. By leveraging data from sensors, machine instructions, and imaging, we created high-fidelity virtual models of manufactured parts that could be rapidly analyzed and certified. This approach was first demonstrated with Direct Ink Write, and then extended to other manufacturing settings, including conventional (or “subtractive”) manufacturing and to predict the end of life performance of parts per the aging and lifetimes programs. The result is a transformational capability: inspection times have been reduced by a factor of 120,000 without loss of accuracy and while simultaneously improving traceability and confidence in part quality. This framework not only streamlines certification for critical applications, but also positions the national security enterprise to respond more flexibly to emerging challenges, supporting agile manufacturing and digital engineering practices across a broad range of mission-relevant domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗