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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2015

Affordable Development and Demonstration of a Small NTR Engine and Stage: A Preliminary NASA, DOE, and Industry Assessment

The Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) represents the next evolutionary step in cryogenic liquid rocket engines. Deriving its energy from fission of uranium-235 atoms contained within fuel elements that comprise the engine's reactor core, the NTR can generate high thrust at a specific impulse of approx. 900 seconds or more - twice that of today's best chemical rockets. In FY'11, as part of the AISP project, NASA proposed a Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) effort that envisioned two key activities - "Foundational Technology Development" followed by system-level "Technology Demonstrations". Five near-term NTP activities identified for Foundational Technology Development became the basis for the NCPS project started in FY'12 and funded by NASA's AES program. During Phase 1 (FY'12-14), the NCPS project was focused on (1) Recapturing fuel processing techniques and fabricating partial length "heritage" fuel elements for the two candidate fuel forms identified by NASA and the DOE - NERVA graphite "composite" and the uranium dioxide (UO2) in tungsten "cermet". The Phase 1 effort also included: (2) Engine Conceptual Design; (3) Mission Analysis and Requirements Definition; (4) Identification of Affordable Options for Ground Testing; and (5) Formulation of an Affordable and Sustainable NTP Development Strategy. During FY'14, a preliminary plan for DDT&E was outlined by GRC, the DOE and industry for NASA HQ that involved significant system-level demonstration projects that included GTD tests at the NNSS, followed by a FTD mission. To reduce development costs, the GTD and FTD tests use a small, low thrust (approx. 7.5 or 16.5 klbf) engine. Both engines use graphite composite fuel and a "common" fuel element design that is scalable to higher thrust (approx. 25 klbf) engines by increasing the number of elements in a larger diameter core that can produce greater thermal power output. To keep the FTD mission cost down, a simple "1-burn" lunar flyby mission was considered along with maximizing the use of existing and flight proven liquid rocket and stage hardware (e.g., from the RL10-B2 engine and Delta Cryogenic Second Stage) to further ensure affordability. This paper provides a preliminary NASA, DOE and industry assessment of what is required - the key DDT&E activities, development options, and the associated schedule - to affordably build, ground test and fly a small NTR engine and stage within a 10-year timeframe.

Nuclear rocket engines↗

NASA NTRS2015

Affordable Development and Demonstration of a Small NTR Engine and Stage: How Small is Big Enough?

The Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) derives its energy from fission of uranium-235 atoms contained within fuel elements that comprise the engine's reactor core. It generates high thrust and has a specific impulse potential of approximately 900 seconds - a 100% increase over today's best chemical rockets. The Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) project, funded by NASA's AES program, includes five key task activities: (1) Recapture, demonstration, and validation of heritage graphite composite (GC) fuel (selected as the "Lead Fuel" option); (2) Engine Conceptual Design; (3) Operating Requirements Definition; (4) Identification of Affordable Options for Ground Testing; and (5) Formulation of an Affordable Development Strategy. During FY'14, a preliminary DDT&E plan and schedule for NTP development was outlined by GRC, DOE and industry that involved significant system-level demonstration projects that included GTD tests at the NNSS, followed by a FTD mission. To reduce cost for the GTD tests and FTD mission, small NTR engines, in either the 7.5 or 16.5 klbf thrust class, were considered. Both engine options used GC fuel and a "common" fuel element (FE) design. The small approximately 7.5 klbf "criticality-limited" engine produces approximately 157 megawatts of thermal power (MWt) and its core is configured with parallel rows of hexagonal-shaped FEs and tie tubes (TTs) with a FE to TT ratio of approximately 1:1. The larger approximately 16.5 klbf Small Nuclear Rocket Engine (SNRE), developed by LANL at the end of the Rover program, produces approximately 367 MWt and has a FE to TT ratio of approximately 2:1. Although both engines use a common 35 inch (approximately 89 cm) long FE, the SNRE's larger diameter core contains approximately 300 more FEs needed to produce an additional 210 MWt of power. To reduce the cost of the FTD mission, a simple "1-burn" lunar flyby mission was considered to reduce the LH2 propellant loading, the stage size and complexity. Use of existing and flight proven liquid rocket and stage hardware (e.g., from the RL10B-2 engine and Delta Cryogenic Second Stage) was also maximized to further aid affordability. This paper examines the pros and cons of using these two small engine options, including their potential to support future human exploration missions to the Moon, near Earth asteroids, and Mars, and recommends a preferred size. It also provides a preliminary assessment of the key activities, development options, and schedule required to affordably build, ground test and fly a small NTR engine and stage within a 10-year timeframe.

Spacecraft design↗

NASA NTRS2016

Affordable Development and Demonstration of a Small Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) Engine and Stage: How Small Is Big Enough?

The Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) derives its energy from fission of uranium-235 atoms contained within fuel elements that comprise the engine's reactor core. It generates high thrust and has a specific impulse potential of approximately 900 specific impulse - a 100 percent increase over today's best chemical rockets. The Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) project, funded by NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program, includes five key task activities: (1) Recapture, demonstration, and validation of heritage graphite composite (GC) fuel (selected as the Lead Fuel option); (2) Engine Conceptual Design; (3) Operating Requirements Definition; (4) Identification of Affordable Options for Ground Testing; and (5) Formulation of an Affordable Development Strategy. During fiscal year (FY) 2014, a preliminary Design Development Test and Evaluation (DDT&E) plan and schedule for NTP development was outlined by the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), Department of Energy (DOE) and industry that involved significant system-level demonstration projects that included Ground Technology Demonstration (GTD) tests at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), followed by a Flight Technology Demonstration (FTD) mission. To reduce cost for the GTD tests and FTD mission, small NTR engines, in either the 7.5 or 16.5 kilopound-force thrust class, were considered. Both engine options used GC fuel and a common fuel element (FE) design. The small approximately 7.5 kilopound-force criticality-limited engine produces approximately157 thermal megawatts and its core is configured with parallel rows of hexagonal-shaped FEs and tie tubes (TTs) with a FE to TT ratio of approximately 1:1. The larger approximately 16.5 kilopound-force Small Nuclear Rocket Engine (SNRE), developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) at the end of the Rover program, produces approximately 367 thermal megawatts and has a FE to TT ratio of approximately 2:1. Although both engines use a common 35-inch (approximately 89-centimeters) -long FE, the SNRE's larger diameter core contains approximately 300 more FEs needed to produce an additional 210 thermal megawatts of power. To reduce the cost of the FTD mission, a simple one-burn lunar flyby mission was considered to reduce the liquid hydrogen (LH2) propellant loading, the stage size and complexity. Use of existing and flight proven liquid rocket and stage hardware (e.g., from the RL10B-2 engine and Delta Cryogenic Second Stage) was also maximized to further aid affordability. This paper examines the pros and cons of using these two small engine options, including their potential to support future human exploration missions to the Moon, near Earth asteroids (NEA), and Mars, and recommends a preferred size. It also provides a preliminary assessment of the key activities, development options, and schedule required to affordably build, ground test and fly a small NTR engine and stage within a 10-year timeframe.

Spacecraft design↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Affordable Vehicle Avionics (AVA)

Small satellites are becoming ever more capable of performing valuable missions for both government and commercial customers. However, currently these satellites can be launched affordably only as secondary payloads. This makes it difficult for the small satellite mission to launch when needed, to the desired orbit, and with acceptable risk. What is needed is a class of low-cost launchers, so that launch costs to low-Earth orbit (LEO) are commensurate with payload costs. Several private and government-sponsored launch vehicle developers are working toward just that-the ability to affordably insert small payloads into LEO. But until now, cost of the complex avionics remained disproportionately high. AVA (Affordable Vehicle Avionics) solves this problem. Significant contributors to the cost of launching nanosatellites to orbit are the avionics and software systems that steer and control the launch vehicles, sequence stage separation, deploy payloads, and telemeter data. The high costs of these guidance, navigation and control (GNC) avionics systems are due in part to the current practice of developing unique, single-use hardware and software for each launch. High-performance, high-reliability inertial sensors components with heritage from legacy launchers also contribute to costs-but can low-cost commercial inertial sensors work just as well? NASA Ames Research Center has developed and tested a prototype low-cost avionics package for space launch vehicles that provides complete GNC functionality in a package smaller than a tissue box (100 millimeters by 120 millimeters by 69 millimeters; 4 inches by 4.7 inches by 2.7 inches), with a mass of less than 0.84 kilogram (2 pounds. AVA takes advantage of commercially available, low-cost, mass-produced, miniaturized sensors, filtering their more noisy inertial data with real-time GPS (Global Positioning Satellite) data. The goal of the AVA project is to produce and light-verify a common suite of avionics and software that deliver affordable, capable GNC and telemetry avionics with application to multiple nanolaunch vehicles at 1 percent of the cost of current state-of-the-art avionics.

space technology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Storing Affordability: Battery Storage as an Asset to Reduce Data Center Cost Shifts

This report examines how battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help utilities accommodate large load growth while protecting affordability for existing ratepayers. Rapid growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is straining the U.S. grid. Furthermore, many new data centers are entering rural markets, which could offer economic benefits but may also pose implementation challenges for smaller utilities. At the same time, retail electricity prices are increasing faster than inflation, elevating customer affordability as a key challenge. While data centers have not been the primary driver of increases in residential prices to date, they have pushed wholesale energy and capacity prices higher in several markets. Fundamental utility cost-allocation principles show that data center growth can be rate-positive for existing customers only if new peak demand grows faster than the costs a utility must incur to serve it. Several factors, including a utility’s degree of wholesale market exposure, forecast uncertainty and stranded-asset risk, and tariff design can determine the outcome of load growth on retail rates. Energy storage can make several affordability contributions in the face of this landscape of uncertainty and market volatility, including deferral of higher-cost grid investments through improved utilization of existing assets and flexibility of new large loads, insulation from volatile wholesale prices through peak shaving, and reliability support to address grid risks stemming from the behavior of AI data center loads. Different potential BESS deployment pathways—utility-scale front-of-the-meter systems, aggregated small-scale storage installations, and data center-sited behind-the-meter storage—are compared against each other and against conventional capacity alternatives. This framework is intended as a conceptual resource to utilities, particularly smaller public utilities with rural service territories, who may be considering the role that energy storage can play in insulating existing ratepayers from data center cost shifts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

National Grid: Using the LEAD Tool Data to Target Energy Affordability Services to Eligible Customers in New York

In the following use case, investor-owned utility company, National Grid, used the Low-Income Energy Affordability Data (LEAD) Tool to support the implementation of its Home Energy Affordability Team (HEAT), a weatherization program for income-eligible residential natural gas customers in its service territory in Long Island, New York. Using LEAD Tool data, National Grid was able to determine how many households may be eligible for the program to inform additional marketing efforts. This use case is an example of how utilities of all sizes and types in the United States can use the LEAD Tool in similar ways to gain insights and better address customer energy affordability needs.

Low-Income Energy Affordability Data Tool, LEAD To↗

DOE OSTI2022

Community Solar Resources for Multifamily Affordable Housing Providers [Slides]

As part of an initiative to support Multifamily Affordable Housing (MFAH) providers in their efforts to accelerate deployment of community solar, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s National Community Solar Partnership (NCSP) convened a group of MFAH providers from across the United States to understand and address barriers. DOE and project partners the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Urban Ingenuity, and Stewards of Affordable Housing for the Future facilitated peer exchange, provided technical assistance, and developed resources to support the sector more broadly. During this one-hour webinar NREL, Urban Ingenuity, and SAHF introduced these resources. The webinar was attended by MFAH providers, state and local agencies, and others working to advance equitable access to solar for residents of affordable housing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Analysis and Review of Measures and Relationships in Space Transportation Affordability

The affordability of transportation to or from space is of continued interest across numerous and diverse stakeholders in our aerospace industry. Such an important metric as affordability deserves a clear understanding among stakeholders about what is meant by affordability, costs, and related terms, as otherwise it's difficult to see where specific improvements are needed or where to target specific investments. As captured in the famous words of Lewis Carroll, "If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there". As important as understanding a metric may be, with terms such as costs, prices, specific costs, average costs, marginal costs, etc., it is equally important to understand the relationship among these measures. In turn, these measures intermingle with caveats and factors that introduce more measures in need of a common understanding among stakeholders. These factors include flight rates, capability, and payload. This paper seeks to review the costs of space transportation systems and the relationships among the many factors involved in costs from the points of view of diverse decision makers. A decision maker may have an interest in acquiring a single launch considering the best price (along with other factors in their business case), or an interest in many launches over time. Alternately, a decision maker may have a specific interest in developing a space transportation system that will offer certain prices, or flight rate capability, or both, at a certain up-front cost. The question arises for the later, to reuse or to expend? As it is necessary in thinking about the future to clearly understand the past and the present, this paper will present data and graphics to assist stakeholders in visualizing trends and the current state of affairs in the launch industry. At all times, raw data will be referenced (or made available separately) alongside detailed explanations about the data, so as to avoid the confusion or misleading conclusions that occur more often than not with complex graphs or statements when such context is lacking.

affordability↗

DOE OSTI2026

Affordable and Scalable Modular Multifamily Housing: A Case Study on Cost, Construction Time Savings, and Waste Reduction in California: Preprint

Modular construction can significantly reduce waste when compared to traditional methods. This case study evaluates cost, construction time, and waste metrics for a 195-unit stick-built project and for a 66-unit modular project both based in Los Angeles, CA. We partner with SoLa Impact (real estate developer) and Model/Z (modular manufacturer) to evaluate the impact of Model/Z's 1-bedroom modular unit which is produced in a 160,000 sq ft local factory in South Los Angeles. We compare them to similar stick-built/site-built multifamily construction by the same developer in Los Angeles. This study finds that modular production reduced construction waste through precise prefabrication, concentrated workforce expertise, and streamlined logistics while cutting transportation needs, improving project efficiency and lowering associated timelines and costs. Economies of scale are being realized as Model/Z has produced over 500 affordable housing units and supplied for projects up to 188 units, shortening schedules and lowering per-unit costs and supporting affordable housing goals in income-challenged South Los Angeles. Modular methods offer a scalable, resource-efficient pathway to increasing affordable housing supply while reducing total development costs by 10-15% and project timelines by 50%, while simultaneously creating local jobs and training opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Can economic drivers enable an affordable, reliable, and resilient energy system in rural Alaska?

Price subsidies, such as the Alaska Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program, are intended to provide affordable energy. However, these economic drivers may be barriers to a clean energy transition and economic development, especially in rural Alaska. Reliable and affordable energy, a challenge in rural Alaska, is the foundation for individual and community security and economic development. Addressing the climate change crisis requires a sustainable transition to decarbonized energy systems that are more equitable, reliable, and affordable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Annotated Bibliography of Literature Addressing the Low-Income Energy Affordability in the United States

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), with support from the Georgia Institute of Technology, conducted a “meta review” of low-income energy affordability in the United States. The first step of that review involved the creation of an annotated bibliography of literature focused on low-income household energy affordability, needs, and gaps. This bibliography includes abstracts of the published literature discussed in the meta review. This annotated bibliography describes the relatively current literature (published from 2010 to 2019) that examines low-income energy affordability in the United States. As an initial search criterion, literature was compiled from journal publications archived in Web of Science and Scopus databases.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Low-Income Energy Affordability: Conclusions From A Literature Review

This paper examines the persistent problem of high energy burdens among low-income households, based on a review of more than 180 publications that pointed to several promising opportunities to address energy affordability including inclusive solar programs, leveraged health care benefits, and behavioral economics. using an equity and affordability lens. Even after decades of weatherization and bill-payment programs, low-income households, on average, continue to spend a higher share of their income on electricity and natural gas bills than any other income group. Energy burden for low-income households is not declining, and it remains persistently high, particularly in the South, in rural America, among minority households, and those with children and elderly residents. On a per household basis, utility companies spend less on energy-efficiency programs for low-income households than for other income groups. In addition, government and utility programs that promote rooftop solar power, electric vehicles, and home energy storage are largely inaccessible to low-income households. Our review identifies promising opportunities to address energy affordability including inclusive solar programs, leveraged health care benefits, behavioral economics, data analytics, advanced information and communication technologies, and grid resiliency. Scalable approaches require linking implementing agencies, programs and policies to tackle the complex web of causes and impacts on low-income households with high energy burdens.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2004

Prepreg and Melt Infiltration Technology Developed for Affordable, Robust Manufacturing of Ceramic Matrix Composites

Affordable fiber-reinforced ceramic matrix composites with multifunctional properties are critically needed for high-temperature aerospace and space transportation applications. These materials have various applications in advanced high-efficiency and high-performance engines, airframe and propulsion components for next-generation launch vehicles, and components for land-based systems. A number of these applications require materials with specific functional characteristics: for example, thick component, hybrid layups for environmental durability and stress management, and self-healing and smart composite matrices. At present, with limited success and very high cost, traditional composite fabrication technologies have been utilized to manufacture some large, complex-shape components of these materials. However, many challenges still remain in developing affordable, robust, and flexible manufacturing technologies for large, complex-shape components with multifunctional properties. The prepreg and melt infiltration (PREMI) technology provides an affordable and robust manufacturing route for low-cost, large-scale production of multifunctional ceramic composite components.

Singh, Mrityunjay↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Bootstrap Approach to an Affordable Exploration Program

This paper examines the potential to build an affordable sustainable exploration program by adopting an approach that requires investing in technologies that can be used to build a space infrastructure from very modest initial capabilities. Human exploration has had a history of flight programs that have high development and operational costs. Since Apollo, human exploration has had very constrained budgets and they are expected be constrained in the future. Due to their high operations costs it becomes necessary to consider retiring established space facilities in order to move on to the next exploration challenge. This practice may save cost in the near term but it does so by sacrificing part of the program s future architecture. Human exploration also has a history of sacrificing fully functional flight hardware to achieve mission objectives. An affordable exploration program cannot be built when it involves billions of dollars of discarded space flight hardware, instead, the program must emphasize preserving its high value space assets and building a suitable permanent infrastructure. Further this infrastructure must reduce operational and logistics cost. The paper examines the importance of achieving a high level of logistics independence by minimizing resource consumption, minimizing the dependency on external logistics, and maximizing the utility of resources available. The approach involves the development and deployment of a core suite of technologies that have minimum initial needs yet are able expand upon initial capability in an incremental bootstrap fashion. The bootstrap approach incrementally creates an infrastructure that grows and becomes self sustaining and eventually begins producing the energy, products and consumable propellants that support human exploration. The bootstrap technologies involve new methods of delivering and manipulating energy and materials. These technologies will exploit the space environment, minimize dependencies, and minimize the need for imported resources. They will provide the widest range of utility in a resource scarce environment and pave the way to an affordable exploration program.

Oeftering, Richard C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Space Launch System: Affordability for Sustainability

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is charged with delivering a new capability for human exploration beyond Earth orbit in an austere economic climate. But the SLS value is clear and codified in United States (U.S.) budget law. The SLS Program knows that affordability is the key to sustainability and will provide an overview of initiatives designed to fit within the funding guidelines by using existing engine assets and hardware now in testing to meet a first launch by 2017 within the projected budget. It also has a long-range plan to keep the budget flat, yet evolve the 70-tonne (t) initial lift capability to 130-t lift capability after the first two flights. To achieve the evolved configuration, advanced technologies must offer appropriate return on investment to be selected through the competitive process. For context, the SLS will be larger than the Saturn V that took 12 men on 6 trips for a total of 11 days on the lunar surface some 40 years ago. Astronauts train for long-duration voyages on platforms such as the International Space Station, but have not had transportation to go beyond Earth orbit in modern times, until now. To arrive at the launch vehicle concept, the SLS Program conducted internal engineering and business studies that have been externally validated by industry and reviewed by independent assessment panels. In parallel with SLS concept studies, NASA is now refining its mission manifest, guided by U.S. space policy and the Global Exploration Roadmap, which reflects the mutual goals of a dozen member nations. This mission planning will converge with a flexible heavy-lift rocket that can carry international crews and the air, water, food, and equipment they need for extended trips to asteroids and Mars. In addition, the SLS capability will accommodate very large science instruments and other payloads, using a series of modular fairings and adapters to configure the rocket for the mission. The SLS affordability plan includes streamlining interfaces, applying risk-based insight into contracted work, centralizing systems engineering and integration, and nurturing a learning culture where the question Why? is often asked and the answer "Because we've always done it that way" is rarely heard. The SLS Program will deliver affordable space transportation solutions for the Orion Multi-Purpose Cargo Vehicle s first autonomous certification flight in 2017, followed by a crewed flight in 2021. As this briefing will show, the SLS will offer a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations.

May, Todd A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Approach to an Affordable and Productive Space Transportation System

This paper describes an approach for creating space transportation architectures that are affordable, productive, and sustainable. The architectural scope includes both flight and ground system elements, and focuses on their compatibility to achieve a technical solution that is operationally productive, and also affordable throughout its life cycle. Previous papers by the authors and other members of the Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) focused on space flight system engineering methods, along with operationally efficient propulsion system concepts and technologies. This paper follows up previous work by using a structured process to derive examples of conceptual architectures that integrate a number of advanced concepts and technologies. The examples are not intended to provide a near-term alternative architecture to displace current near-term design and development activity. Rather, the examples demonstrate an approach that promotes early investments in advanced system concept studies and trades (flight and ground), as well as in advanced technologies with the goal of enabling highly affordable, productive flight and ground space transportation systems.

McCleskey, Carey M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Role of Probabilistic Design Analysis Methods in Safety and Affordability

For the last several years, NASA and its contractors have been working together to build space launch systems to commercialize space. Developing commercial affordable and safe launch systems becomes very important and requires a paradigm shift. This paradigm shift enforces the need for an integrated systems engineering environment where cost, safety, reliability, and performance need to be considered to optimize the launch system design. In such an environment, rule based and deterministic engineering design practices alone may not be sufficient to optimize margins and fault tolerance to reduce cost. As a result, introduction of Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) methods to support the current deterministic engineering design practices becomes a necessity to reduce cost without compromising reliability and safety. This paper discusses the importance of PDA methods in NASA's new commercial environment, their applications, and the key role they can play in designing reliable, safe, and affordable launch systems. More specifically, this paper discusses: 1) The involvement of NASA in PDA 2) Why PDA is needed 3) A PDA model structure 4) A PDA example application 5) PDA link to safety and affordability.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗