Results for “ACCURACY” — Page 2

NASA NTRS2008

Accuracy Assessment and Correction of Vaisala RS92 Radiosonde Water Vapor Measurements

Relative humidity (RH) measurements from Vaisala RS92 radiosondes are widely used in both research and operational applications, although the measurement accuracy is not well characterized as a function of its known dependences on height, RH, and time of day (or solar altitude angle). This study characterizes RS92 mean bias error as a function of its dependences by comparing simultaneous measurements from RS92 radiosondes and from three reference instruments of known accuracy. The cryogenic frostpoint hygrometer (CFH) gives the RS92 accuracy above the 700 mb level; the ARM microwave radiometer gives the RS92 accuracy in the lower troposphere; and the ARM SurTHref system gives the RS92 accuracy at the surface using 6 RH probes with NIST-traceable calibrations. These RS92 assessments are combined using the principle of Consensus Referencing to yield a detailed estimate of RS92 accuracy from the surface to the lowermost stratosphere. An empirical bias correction is derived to remove the mean bias error, yielding corrected RS92 measurements whose mean accuracy is estimated to be +/-3% of the measured RH value for nighttime soundings and +/-4% for daytime soundings, plus an RH offset uncertainty of +/-0.5%RH that is significant for dry conditions. The accuracy of individual RS92 soundings is further characterized by the 1-sigma "production variability," estimated to be +/-1.5% of the measured RH value. The daytime bias correction should not be applied to cloudy daytime soundings, because clouds affect the solar radiation error in a complicated and uncharacterized way.

Whiteman, David N.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

11-th order of accuracy for numerical solution of 3-D Poisson equation with irregular interfaces on unfitted Cartesian meshes

For the first time the optimal local truncation error method (OLTEM) with 125-point stencils and unfitted Cartesian meshes has been developed in the general 3-D case for the Poisson equation for heterogeneous materials with smooth irregular interfaces. The 125-point stencils equations that are similar to those for quadratic finite elements are used for OLTEM. The interface conditions for OLTEM are imposed as constraints at a small number of interface points and do not require the introduction of additional unknowns, i.e., the sparse structure of global discrete equations of OLTEM is the same for homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. The stencils coefficients of OLTEM are calculated by the minimization of the local truncation error of the stencil equations. These derivations include the use of the Poisson equation for the relationship between the different spatial derivatives. Such a procedure provides the maximum possible accuracy of the discrete equations of OLTEM. In contrast to known numerical techniques with quadratic elements and third order of accuracy on conforming and unfitted meshes, OLTEM with the 125-point stencils provides 11-th order of accuracy, i.e., an extremely large increase in accuracy by 8 orders for similar stencils. The numerical results show that OLTEM yields much more accurate results than high-order finite elements with much wider stencils. The increased numerical accuracy of OLTEM leads to an extremely large increase in computational efficiency. Additionally, a new post-processing procedure with the 125-point stencil has been developed for the calculation of the spatial derivatives of the primary function. The post-processing procedure includes the minimization of the local truncation error and the use of the Poisson equation. It is demonstrated that the use of the partial differential equation (PDE) for the 125-point stencils improves the accuracy of the spatial derivatives by 6 orders compared to post-processing without the use of PDE as in existing numerical techniques. At an accuracy of 0.1% for the spatial derivatives, OLTEM reduces the number of degrees of freedom by 900 - 4∙10 6 times compared to quadratic finite elements. The developed post-processing procedure can be easily extended to unstructured meshes and can be independently used with existing post-processing techniques (e.g., with finite elements).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Camera settings and biome influence the accuracy of citizen science approaches to camera trap image classification

Scientists are increasingly using volunteer efforts of citizen scientists to classify images captured by motion-activated trail cameras. The rising popularity of citizen science reflects its potential to engage the public in conservation science and accelerate processing of the large volume of images generated by trail cameras. While image classification accuracy by citizen scientists can vary across species, the influence of other factors on accuracy is poorly understood. Inaccuracy diminishes the value of citizen science derived data and prompts the need for specific best-practice protocols to decrease error. We compare the accuracy between three programs that use crowdsourced citizen scientists to process images online: Snapshot Serengeti, Wildwatch Kenya, and AmazonCam Tambopata. We hypothesized that habitat type and camera settings would influence accuracy. To evaluate these factors, each photograph was circulated to multiple volunteers. All volunteer classifications were aggregated to a single best answer for each photograph using a plurality algorithm. Subsequently, a subset of these images underwent expert review and were compared to the citizen scientist results. Classification errors were categorized by the nature of the error (e.g., false species or false empty), and reason for the false classification (e.g., misidentification). Our results show that Snapshot Serengeti had the highest accuracy (97.9%), followed by AmazonCam Tambopata (93.5%), then Wildwatch Kenya (83.4%). Error type was influenced by habitat, with false empty images more prevalent in open-grassy habitat (27%) compared to woodlands (10%). For medium to large animal surveys across all habitat types, our results suggest that to significantly improve accuracy in crowdsourced projects, researchers should use a trail camera set up protocol with a burst of three consecutive photographs, a short field of view, and determine camera sensitivity settings based on in situ testing. Accuracy level comparisons such as this study can improve reliability of future citizen science projects, and subsequently encourage the increased use of such data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1996

Accuracy Studies of a Magnetometer-Only Attitude-and-Rate-Determination System

A personal computer based system was recently prototyped that uses measurements from a three axis magnetometer (TAM) to estimate the attitude and rates of a spacecraft using no a priori knowledge of the spacecraft's state. Past studies using in-flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particles Explorer focused on the robustness of the system and demonstrated that attitude and rate estimates could be obtained accurately to 1.5 degrees (deg) and 0.01 deg per second (deg/sec), respectively, despite limitations in the data and in the accuracies of te truth models. This paper studies the accuracy of the Kalman filter in the system using several orbits of in-flight Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) data and attitude and rate truth models obtained from high precision sensors to demonstrate the practical capabilities. This paper shows the following: Using telemetered TAM data, attitude accuracies of 0.2 to 0.4 deg and rate accuracies of 0.002 to 0.005 deg/sec (within ERBS attitude control requirements of 1 deg and 0.0005 deg/sec) can be obtained with minimal tuning of the filter; Replacing the TAM data in the telemetry with simulated TAM data yields corresponding accuracies of 0.1 to 0.2 deg and 0.002 to 0.005 deg/sec, thus demonstrating that the filter's accuracy can be significantly enhanced by further calibrating the TAM. Factors affecting the fillter's accuracy and techniques for tuning the system's Kalman filter are also presented.

Challa, M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis

LRO definitive and predictive accuracy requirements were easily met in the nominal mission orbit, using the LP150Q lunar gravity model. center dot Accuracy of the LP150Q model is poorer in the extended mission elliptical orbit. center dot Later lunar gravity models, in particular GSFC-GRAIL-270, improve OD accuracy in the extended mission. center dot Implementation of a constrained plane when the orbit is within 45 degrees of the Earth-Moon line improves cross-track accuracy. center dot Prediction accuracy is still challenged during full-Sun periods due to coarse spacecraft area modeling - Implementation of a multi-plate area model with definitive attitude input can eliminate prediction violations. - The FDF is evaluating using analytic and predicted attitude modeling to improve full-Sun prediction accuracy. center dot Comparison of FDF ephemeris file to high-precision ephemeris files provides gross confirmation that overlap compares properly assess orbit accuracy.

Gravitation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spectral deferred correction methods for high-order accuracy in poroelastic problems

In this work, we investigate high-order accuracy in time integration by examining two operator splitting methods for poroelastic problems: the two-pass and the spectral deferred correction (SDC) methods. To enhance the order of accuracy, the two-pass method partitions a coupled operator symmetrically, whereas the SDC method corrects truncation errors by establishing an error equation. These high-order methods are applied to underlying solution strategies, i.e., monolithic, fixed-stress sequential, and undrained sequential methods. We observe that semi-discretized systems from spatial discretization have forms similar to those of index-1 differential algebraic equations (DAEs), causing order reduction against the two-pass method when it is used in conjunction with either the monolithic or sequential method. On the other hand, the SDC in conjunction with the monolithic method exhibits the desired second-order accuracy in poroelastic problems while increasing the order of accuracy for index-1 DAEs. However, the SDC in conjunction with either of the two sequential methods does not achieve the desired order of accuracy, and maintains first order because the flow equation for poroelasticity has an additional approximation associated with the volumetric strain rate term, which does not yield exactly the same forms as those of conventional DAEs. Thus, the monolithic SDC method can achieve higher-order accuracy, but may require higher computational costs because it involves solving matrix systems larger than those for the sequential methods.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

10-th order of accuracy for numerical solution of 3-D elasticity equations for heterogeneous materials on unfitted Cartesian meshes

We have developed the Optimal Local Truncation Error Method (OLTEM) with 10-th order of accuracy on unfitted Cartesian meshes for a system of 3-D elasticity equations with smooth irregular interfaces. 5 x 5 x 5 = 125-point stencils (similar to those for quadratic finite elements) for elastic heterogeneous materials are used for OLTEM. There are no unknowns at the interface points between different materials; the structure of the global discrete equations is the same for homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. The calculation of unknown stencil coefficients is based on the minimization of the local truncation error of the stencil equations and yields the optimal 10-th order of accuracy for OLTEM on unfitted Cartesian meshes, i.e., the increase by 7 orders in accuracy compared to quadratic finite elements on conformal meshes. A new post-processing procedure provides the 9-th order of accuracy for stresses in the 3-D case. Similar to basic computations it uses OLTEM with the 125-point stencils, the interface conditions and the elasticity equations. It was shown that the use of the elasticity equations for post-processing improves the accuracy of 0.1% stresses by 6 orders compared to post-processing without the use of PDEs. At an accuracy of for stresses, OLTEM with the new post-processing procedure reduces the number of degrees of freedom by 360 - 8000 times compared to quadratic finite elements with similar stencils. OLTEM with the 125-point stencils yields even more accurate results than high-order finite elements with much wider stencils. OLTEM provides accurate numerical results for compressible and nearly incompressible materials.

elasticity equations↗

NASA NTRS1975

CARETS: A prototype regional environmental information system. Volume 6: Cost, accuracy and consistency comparisons of land use maps made from high-altitude aircraft photography and ERTS imagery

Accuracy analyses for the land use maps of the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site were performed for a 1-percent sample of the area. Researchers compared Level II land use maps produced at three scales, 1:24,000, 1:100,000, and 1:250,000 from high-altitude photography, with each other and with point data obtained in the field. They employed the same procedures to determine the accuracy of the Level I land use maps produced at 1:250,000 from high-altitude photography and color composite ERTS imagery. The accuracy of the Level II maps was 84.9 percent at 1:24,000, 77.4 percent at 1:100,000, and 73.0 percent at 1:250,000. The accuracy of the Level I 1:250,000 maps produced from high-altitude aircraft photography was 76.5 percent and for those produced from ERTS imagery was 69.5 percent. The cost of Level II land use mapping at 1:24,000 was found to be high ($11.93 per km 2 ). The cost of mapping at 1:100,000 ($1.75) was about 2 times as expensive as mapping at 1:250,000 ($.88), and the accuracy increased by only 4.4 percent. Level I land use maps, when mapped from high-altitude photography, were about 4 times as expensive as the maps produced from ERTS imagery, although the accuracy is 7.0 percent greater. The Level I land use category that is least accurately mapped from ERTS imagery is urban and built-up land in the non-urban areas; in the urbanized areas, built-up land is more reliably map

Accuracy↗

NASA NTRS1990

Evaluating the effect of accuracy ratios on the percent of calibrations which are out of tolerance

The standard practice in calibration laboratories across the country, including the Measurement Standards and Calibration Laboratory (MSCL) at the Johnson Space Center, is to use accuracy ratios to determine if instruments are in-tolerance rather than computing the actual uncertainty associated with the instruments. In the past, the accepted practice was to use an accuracy ratio of 10:1, but then state of the art advanced to the point where the 10:1 ratio could no longer be maintained, and the ratio was arbitrarily lowered to 4:1. It is now becoming increasingly difficult to maintain the 4:1 accuracy ratio, and in some cases 1:1 is the best that can be achieved. However, the effect of using these small accuracy ratios on the number of mistakes made in classifying instruments as in or out of tolerance is completely unknown. In order to assess the effect of using accuracy ratios in calibration, a simulation program was written to compute the proportion of instruments determined to be out of tolerance which were actually in, denoted by alpha, and the proportion of instruments determined to be in-tolerance which were actually out, denoted by beta. This was done for accuracy ratios of 1:1 and 10:1, for one to five progressive calibrations, under varying standard and instrument conditions. Selected results are presented and explained.

Navard, Sharon E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Spacecraft attitude determination accuracy from mission experience

This document presents a compilation of the attitude accuracy attained by a number of satellites that have been supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). It starts with a general description of the factors that influence spacecraft attitude accuracy. After brief descriptions of the missions supported, it presents the attitude accuracy results for currently active and older missions, including both three-axis stabilized and spin-stabilized spacecraft. The attitude accuracy results are grouped by the sensor pair used to determine the attitudes. A supplementary section is also included, containing the results of theoretical computations of the effects of variation of sensor accuracy on overall attitude accuracy.

Brasoveanu, D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Effect of radiance-to-reflectance transformation and atmosphere removal on maximum likelihood classification accuracy of high-dimensional remote sensing data

Many analysis algorithms for high-dimensional remote sensing data require that the remotely sensed radiance spectra be transformed to approximate reflectance to allow comparison with a library of laboratory reflectance spectra. In maximum likelihood classification, however, the remotely sensed spectra are compared to training samples, thus a transformation to reflectance may or may not be helpful. The effect of several radiance-to-reflectance transformations on maximum likelihood classification accuracy is investigated in this paper. We show that the empirical line approach, LOWTRAN7, flat-field correction, single spectrum method, and internal average reflectance are all non-singular affine transformations, and that non-singular affine transformations have no effect on discriminant analysis feature extraction and maximum likelihood classification accuracy. (An affine transformation is a linear transformation with an optional offset.) Since the Atmosphere Removal Program (ATREM) and the log residue method are not affine transformations, experiments with Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were conducted to determine the effect of these transformations on maximum likelihood classification accuracy. The average classification accuracy of the data transformed by ATREM and the log residue method was slightly less than the accuracy of the original radiance data. Since the radiance-to-reflectance transformations allow direct comparison of remotely sensed spectra with laboratory reflectance spectra, they can be quite useful in labeling the training samples required by maximum likelihood classification, but these transformations have only a slight effect or no effect at all on discriminant analysis and maximum likelihood classification accuracy.

Hoffbeck, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Determining the Accuracy of Aerodynamic Model Parameters Estimated from Flight Test Data

An important part of building mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of this accuracy, the parameter estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression for computing quantitatively correct parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals is developed and validated. This result is important because experience in analyzing flight test data reveals that the output residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Monte Carlo simulation runs were used to show that parameter accuracy measures from the new technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for correction factors or frequency domain analysis of the output residuals. The technique was applied to flight test data from repeated maneuvers flown on the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). As in the simulated cases, parameter accuracy measures from the new technique were in agreement with the scatter in the parameter estimates from repeated maneuvers, while conventional parameter accuracy measures were optimistic.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Stable and Conservative Interface Treatment of Arbitrary Spatial Accuracy

Stable and accurate interface conditions are derived for the linear advection-diffusion equation. The conditions are functionally independent of the spatial order of accuracy and rely only on the form of the discrete operator. We focus on high-order finite-difference operators that satisfy the summation-by-parts (SBP) property. We prove that stability is a natural consequence of the SBP operators used in conjunction with the new boundary conditions. In addition, we show that the interface treatments are conservative. New finite-difference operators of spatial accuracy up to sixth order are constructed: these operators satisfy the SBP property. Finite-difference operators are shown to admit design accuracy (p(sup th)-order global accuracy) when (p - 1)(sup th)-order stencil closures are used near the boundaries if the physical boundary conditions are implemented to at least p(sup th)-order accuracy. Stability and accuracy are demonstrated on the nonlinear Burgers' equation for an twelve-subdomain problem with randomly distributed interfaces.

Carpenter, Mark H.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Accuracy of Aerodynamic Model Parameters Estimated from Flight Test Data

An important put of building mathematical models based on measured date is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of this accuracy, the parameter estimates themselves have limited value. An expression is developed for computing quantitatively correct parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood parameter estimates when the output residuals are colored. This result is important because experience in analyzing flight test data reveals that the output residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Monte Carlo simulation runs were used to show that parameter accuracy measures from the new technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for correction factors or frequency domain analysis of the output residuals. The technique was applied to flight test data from repeated maneuvers flown on the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle. As in the simulated cases, parameter accuracy measures from the new technique were in agreement with the scatter in the parameter estimates from repeated maneuvers, whereas conventional parameter accuracy measures were optimistic.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Accuracy of the Independent Pixel Approximation at Absorbing Wavelengths

In order to correctly interpret shortwave cloud radiation measured by satellites and ground-based radiometers, or by two aircraft flying above and below clouds, we need to better understand interactions between inhomogeneous clouds and solar radiation. The discrepancies between shortwave absorption inferred from measurements and predicted by models, between cloud optical depths estimated from satellites and ground measurements, between single scattering albedo retrieved from in situ radiation measurements and computed from measured droplet size distribution, among others, are strongly affected by cloud horizontal inhomogeneity. Net horizontal photon transport (i. e., horizontal fluxes) are a direct consequence of the inhomoqeneity in cloud structure. Horizontal fluxes and their effect on the accuracy of the pixel-by-pixel one-dimensional (1 D) radiative transfer calculations has recently undergone close scrutiny for conservative scattering. However, the properties and magnitude of horizontal fluxes in absorbing wavelengths are still poorly understood. As far as we are aware, only Ackerman and Cox and Titov discussed correlations between horizontal fluxes at absorbing wavelengths, though these were far from comprehensive. This paper partly fills this gap. We discuss here of whether the accuracy of the Independent Pixel Approximation (IPA), a 1 D radiative transfer approximation for each pixel, is a better model for multiple scattering at conservative or at absorbing wavelengths. Issues addressed here are: (1) dependence of net horizontal fluxes on single scattering albedo; (2) connection between pixel-by-pixel accuracy of the IPA and horizontal fluxes and (3) radiative smoothing and horizontal fluxes at absorbing wavelengths. In contrast to the traditional understanding of IPA, we study IPA accuracies not only for reflectance but also for transmittance and absorptance at both conservative and absorbing wavelengths. In spite of the apparent similarity between the three processes, dependence of IPA accuracies on single-scattering albedo is completely different. As a result, cloud optical properties retrieved from high resolution satellite images and ground-based measurements using IPA at absorbing channels will have different accuracies.

Marchak, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS1999

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗