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Integrated imaging experiment with C-SAR and other geological image data across the Nelson Front, Northern Manitoba

This paper presents preliminary results from the integration of geophysical and geological data sets using Bayesian statistical analysis with the purpose of mapping the Churchill-Superior Boundary zone. In the Wabowden area the contribution of each rock type to the aeromagnetic anomaly is judged by convolving the aeromagnetic anomaly value with the average magnetic susceptibility. The 'a posteriori' probabilities of significant patterns in the new data are then computed. The highest 'a posteriori' probability occurs along a narrow corridor whose trend coincides remarkably with the location of the Churchill-Superior Boundary Zone. In the Wekusko Lake area, C-SAR and TM data were integrated using an image analysis system. Here the emphasis is on mapping of geological structures.

Rao, G. S. K.↗

An analysis of the multiple model adaptive control algorithm

Qualitative and quantitative aspects of the multiple model adaptive control method are detailed. The method represents a cascade of something which resembles a maximum a posteriori probability identifier (basically a bank of Kalman filters) and a bank of linear quadratic regulators. Major qualitative properties of the MMAC method are examined and principle reasons for unacceptable behavior are explored.

Greene, C. S.↗

Small-Scale Dissipation in Binary-Species Transitional Mixing Layers

Motivated by large eddy simulation (LES) modeling of supercritical turbulent flows, transitional states of databases obtained from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of binary-species supercritical temporal mixing layers were examined to understand the subgrid-scale dissipation, and its variation with filter size. Examination of the DSN-scale domain- averaged dissipation confirms previous findings that, out of the three modes of viscous, temperature and species-mass dissipation, the species-mass dissipation is the main contributor to the total dissipation. The results revealed that the percentage of species-mass by total dissipation is nearly invariant across species systems and initial conditions. This dominance of the species-mass dissipation is due to high-density-gradient magnitude (HDGM) regions populating the flow under the supercritical conditions of the simulations; such regions have also been observed in fully turbulent supercritical flows. The domain average being the result of both the local values and the extent of the HDGM regions, the expectations were that the response to filtering would vary with these flow characteristics. All filtering here is performed in the dissipation range of the Kolmogorov spectrum, at filter sizes from 4 to 16 times the DNS grid spacing. The small-scale (subgrid scale, SGS) dissipation was found by subtracting the filtered-field dissipation from the DNS-field dissipation. In contrast to the DNS dissipation, the SGS dissipation is not necessarily positive; negative values indicate backscatter. Backscatter was shown to be spatially widespread in all modes of dissipation and in the total dissipation (25 to 60 percent of the domain). The maximum magnitude of the negative subgrid- scale dissipation was as much as 17 percent of the maximum positive subgrid- scale dissipation, indicating that, not only is backscatter spatially widespread in these flows, but it is considerable in magnitude and cannot be ignored for the purposes of LES modeling. The Smagorinsky model, for example, is unsuited for modeling SGS fluxes in the LES because it cannot render backscatter. With increased filter size, there is only a modest decrease in the spatial extent of backscatter. The implication is that even at large LES grid spacing, the issue of backscatter and related SGS-flux modeling decisions are unavoidable. As a fraction of the total dissipation, the small-scale dissipation is between 10 and 30 percent of the total dissipation for a filter size that is four times the DNS grid spacing, with all OH cases bunched at 10 percent, and the HN cases spanning 24 30 percent. A scale similarity was found in that the domain-average proportion of each small-scale dissipation mode, with respect to the total small-scale dissipation, is very similar to equivalent results at the DNS scale. With increasing filter size, the proportion of the small-scale dissipation in the dissipation increases substantially, although not quite proportionally. When the filter size increases by four-fold, 52 percent for all OH runs, and 70 percent for HN runs, of the dissipation is contained in the subgrid-scale portion with virtually no dependence on the initial conditions of the DNS. The indications from the dissipation analysis are that modeling efforts in LES of thermodynamically supercritical flows should be focused primarily on mass-flux effects, with temperature and viscous effects being secondary. The analysis also reveals a physical justification for scale-similarity type models, although the suitability of these will need to be confirmed in a posteriori studies.

Bellan, Josette↗

Mesh refinement in finite element analysis by minimization of the stiffness matrix trace

Most finite element packages provide means to generate meshes automatically. However, the user is usually confronted with the problem of not knowing whether the mesh generated is appropriate for the problem at hand. Since the accuracy of the finite element results is mesh dependent, mesh selection forms a very important step in the analysis. Indeed, in accurate analyses, meshes need to be refined or rezoned until the solution converges to a value so that the error is below a predetermined tolerance. A-posteriori methods use error indicators, developed by using the theory of interpolation and approximation theory, for mesh refinements. Some use other criterions, such as strain energy density variation and stress contours for example, to obtain near optimal meshes. Although these methods are adaptive, they are expensive. Alternatively, a priori methods, until now available, use geometrical parameters, for example, element aspect ratio. Therefore, they are not adaptive by nature. An adaptive a-priori method is developed. The criterion is that the minimization of the trace of the stiffness matrix with respect to the nodal coordinates, leads to a minimization of the potential energy, and as a consequence provide a good starting mesh. In a few examples the method is shown to provide the optimal mesh. The method is also shown to be relatively simple and amenable to development of computer algorithms. When the procedure is used in conjunction with a-posteriori methods of grid refinement, it is shown that fewer refinement iterations and fewer degrees of freedom are required for convergence as opposed to when the procedure is not used. The mesh obtained is shown to have uniform distribution of stiffness among the nodes and elements which, as a consequence, leads to uniform error distribution. Thus the mesh obtained meets the optimality criterion of uniform error distribution.

Kittur, Madan G.↗

Stress Recovery and Error Estimation for Shell Structures

The Penalized Discrete Least-Squares (PDLS) stress recovery (smoothing) technique developed for two dimensional linear elliptic problems is adapted here to three-dimensional shell structures. The surfaces are restricted to those which have a 2-D parametric representation, or which can be built-up of such surfaces. The proposed strategy involves mapping the finite element results to the 2-D parametric space which describes the geometry, and smoothing is carried out in the parametric space using the PDLS-based Smoothing Element Analysis (SEA). Numerical results for two well-known shell problems are presented to illustrate the performance of SEA/PDLS for these problems. The recovered stresses are used in the Zienkiewicz-Zhu a posteriori error estimator. The estimated errors are used to demonstrate the performance of SEA-recovered stresses in automated adaptive mesh refinement of shell structures. The numerical results are encouraging. Further testing involving more complex, practical structures is necessary.

Yazdani, A. A.↗

A NICER View of the Massive Pulsar PSR J0740+6620 Informed by Radio Timing and XMM-Newton Spectroscopy

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be-+12.390.981.30km and-+2.0720.0660.067Me respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is=-+TlogK5.99100.060.05([])for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters(within the prior support)and can thus be computed from the posterior samples.

Millisecond pulsars↗

Error Analysis for Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Parabolic Problems

In the proposal, the following three objectives are stated: (1) A p-version of the discontinuous Galerkin method for a one dimensional parabolic problem will be established. It should be recalled that the h-version in space was used for the discontinuous Galerkin method. An a priori error estimate as well as a posteriori estimate of this p-finite element discontinuous Galerkin method will be given. (2) The parameter alpha that describes the behavior double vertical line u(sub t)(t) double vertical line 2 was computed exactly. This was made feasible because of the explicitly specified initial condition. For practical heat transfer problems, the initial condition may have to be approximated. Also, if the parabolic problem is proposed on a multi-dimensional region, the parameter alpha, for most cases, would be difficult to compute exactly even in the case that the initial condition is known exactly. The second objective of this proposed research is to establish a method to estimate this parameter. This will be done by computing two discontinuous Galerkin approximate solutions at two different time steps starting from the initial time and use them to derive alpha. (3) The third objective is to consider the heat transfer problem over a two dimensional thin plate. The technique developed by Vogelius and Babuska will be used to establish a discontinuous Galerkin method in which the p-element will be used for through thickness approximation. This h-p finite element approach, that results in a dimensional reduction method, was used for elliptic problems, but the application appears new for the parabolic problem. The dimension reduction method will be discussed together with the time discretization method.

Kaneko, Hideaki↗

Predictor-corrector procedures for thermal buckling analysis of multilayered composite plates

A study is made of two predictor-corrector procedures for the accurate determination of global, as well as detailed, thermal buckling response characteristics of composite plates. Both procedures use first-order shear deformation theory in the predictor phase, but differ in the elements of the computational model being adjusted in the corrector phase. The first procedure calculates a posteriori estimates of the composite correction factors and uses them to adjust the transverse shear stiffnesses of the plate. The second procedure calculates a posteriori the functional dependence of the displacement components on the thickness coordinate. The corrected quantities are then used in conjunction with three-dimensional equations to obtain better estimates for the different response quantities. Extensive numerical results are presented, showing the effects of variation in the geometric and lamination parameters for antisymmetrically laminated composite plates subjected to uniform temperature rise, on the accuracy of the thermal buckling response obtained by predictor-corrector procedures.

Noor, A. K.↗

Adaptive Finite Element Technology in Integrated Design and Analysis

An assessment of the potential impact of adaptive finite element technology on the analysis part of the aircraft structural synthesis process is presented. The main conclusion is that adaptive application of the p-version of the finite element method based on indirect error estimation procedures results in substantial cost reduction and increased reliability of the computed data. Adaptivity based on direct a posteriori error estimation has the potential for additional savings.

Szabo, B. A.↗

A Posteriori Study of a DNS Database Describing Super critical Binary-Species Mixing

Currently, the modeling of supercritical-pressure flows through Large Eddy Simulation (LES) uses models derived for atmospheric-pressure flows. Those atmospheric-pressure flows do not exhibit the particularities of high densitygradient magnitude features observed both in experiments and simulations of supercritical-pressure flows in the case of two species mixing. To assess whether the current LES modeling is appropriate and if found not appropriate to propose higher-fidelity models, a LES a posteriori study has been conducted for a mixing layer that initially contains different species in the lower and upper streams, and where the initial pressure is larger than the critical pressure of either species. An initially-imposed vorticity perturbation promotes roll-up and a double pairing of four initial span-wise vortices into an ultimate vortex that reaches a transitional state. The LES equations consist of the differential conservation equations coupled with a real-gas equation of state, and the equation set uses transport properties depending on the thermodynamic variables. Unlike all LES models to date, the differential equations contain, additional to the subgrid scale (SGS) fluxes, a new SGS term that is a pressure correction in the momentum equation. This additional term results from filtering of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) equations, and represents the gradient of the difference between the filtered pressure and the pressure computed from the filtered flow field. A previous a priori analysis, using a DNS database for the same configuration, found this term to be of leading order in the momentum equation, a fact traced to the existence of high-densitygradient magnitude regions that populated the entire flow; in the study, models were proposed for the SGS fluxes as well as this new term. In the present study, the previously proposed constantcoefficient SGS-flux models of the a priori investigation are tested a posteriori in LES, devoid of or including, the SGS pressure correction term. The present pressure-correction model is different from, and more accurate as well as less computationally intensive than that of the a priori study. The constant-coefficient SGS-flux models encompass the Smagorinsky (SMC), in conjunction with the Yoshizawa (YO) model for the trace, the Gradient (GRC) and the Scale Similarity (SSC) models, all exercised with the a priori study constant coefficients calibrated at the transitional state. The LES comparison is performed with the filtered- and-coarsened (FC) DNS, which represents an ideal LES solution. Expectably, an LES model devoid of SGS terms is shown to be considerably inferior to models containing SGS effects. Among models containing SGS effects, those including the pressure-correction term are substantially superior to those devoid of it. The sensitivity of the predictions to the initial conditions and grid size are also investigated. Thus, it has been discovered that, additional to the atmospheric-pressure models currently used, a new model is necessary to simulate supercritical-pressure flows. This model depends on the thermodynamic characteristics of the chemical species involved.

Bellan, Josette↗

A Posteriori Error Estimation for Finite Volume and Finite Element Approximations Using Broken Space Approximation

We consider a posteriori error estimates for finite volume and finite element methods on arbitrary meshes subject to prescribed error functionals. Error estimates of this type are useful in a number of computational settings: (1) quantitative prediction of the numerical solution error, (2) adaptive meshing, and (3) load balancing of work on parallel computing architectures. Our analysis recasts the class of Godunov finite volumes schemes as a particular form of discontinuous Galerkin method utilizing broken space approximation obtained via reconstruction of cell-averaged data. In this general framework, weighted residual error bounds are readily obtained using duality arguments and Galerkin orthogonality. Additional consideration is given to issues such as nonlinearity, efficiency, and the relationship to other existing methods. Numerical examples are given throughout the talk to demonstrate the sharpness of the estimates and efficiency of the techniques. Additional information is contained in the original.

Barth, Timothy J.↗

Finite Volume Methods: Foundation and Analysis

Finite volume methods are a class of discretization schemes that have proven highly successful in approximating the solution of a wide variety of conservation law systems. They are extensively used in fluid mechanics, porous media flow, meteorology, electromagnetics, models of biological processes, semi-conductor device simulation and many other engineering areas governed by conservative systems that can be written in integral control volume form. This article reviews elements of the foundation and analysis of modern finite volume methods. The primary advantages of these methods are numerical robustness through the obtention of discrete maximum (minimum) principles, applicability on very general unstructured meshes, and the intrinsic local conservation properties of the resulting schemes. Throughout this article, specific attention is given to scalar nonlinear hyperbolic conservation laws and the development of high order accurate schemes for discretizing them. A key tool in the design and analysis of finite volume schemes suitable for non-oscillatory discontinuity capturing is discrete maximum principle analysis. A number of building blocks used in the development of numerical schemes possessing local discrete maximum principles are reviewed in one and several space dimensions, e.g. monotone fluxes, E-fluxes, TVD discretization, non-oscillatory reconstruction, slope limiters, positive coefficient schemes, etc. When available, theoretical results concerning a priori and a posteriori error estimates are given. Further advanced topics are then considered such as high order time integration, discretization of diffusion terms and the extension to systems of nonlinear conservation laws.

Barth, Timothy↗

Statistical analysis of close pairs of QSOs

The observation of close pairs of QSOs with very different redshifts has been suggested by some as evidence in support of the noncosmological redshift hypothesis. A method is described for determining the statistical significance of such pairs. As an example, it is shown that the statistical significance of the pair 1548+115a,b is not well defined and ranges from approximately 99% confidence to about 60%. If statistical methods are to be used in such cases, they must not be argued a posteriori.

Burbidge, E. M.↗

H-P adaptive methods for finite element analysis of aerothermal loads in high-speed flows

The commitment to develop the National Aerospace Plane and Maneuvering Reentry Vehicles has generated resurgent interest in the technology required to design structures for hypersonic flight. The principal objective of this research and development effort has been to formulate and implement a new class of computational methodologies for accurately predicting fine scale phenomena associated with this class of problems. The initial focus of this effort was to develop optimal h-refinement and p-enrichment adaptive finite element methods which utilize a-posteriori estimates of the local errors to drive the adaptive methodology. Over the past year this work has specifically focused on two issues which are related to overall performance of a flow solver. These issues include the formulation and implementation (in two dimensions) of an implicit/explicit flow solver compatible with the hp-adaptive methodology, and the design and implementation of computational algorithm for automatically selecting optimal directions in which to enrich the mesh. These concepts and algorithms have been implemented in a two-dimensional finite element code and used to solve three hypersonic flow benchmark problems (Holden Mach 14.1, Edney shock on shock interaction Mach 8.03, and the viscous backstep Mach 4.08).

Chang, H. J.↗

On evaluating the accuracy of SAR sea-ice classification using multifrequency polarimetric AIRSAR data

We investigate how multifrequency and polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery enhances present capability to discriminate different ice conditions in single-frequency, single-polarization satellite SAR data. Frequencies considered are C- (lambda = 5.6cm), L- (lambda = 24cm) and P- (lambda = 68cm) band. Radar backscatter characteristics of six radiometrically and polarimetrically distinct ice types are selected from a cluster analysis of the multifrequency polarimetric SAR data and used to classify SAR images. Validation of these ice conditions is based on information provided by aerial photos, weather and ice surface measurements acquired at an ice camp, together with airborne passive microwave imagery, and visual analysis of the SAR data. The six identified sea-ice types are: (1) multiyear sea-ice; (2) compressed first year ice; (3) first year rubble and ridges; (4) first year rough ice; (5) first year smooth ice; and (6) thin ice. Open water is absent in all analyzed data. Classification of the SAR imagery into those six ice types is performed using a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori classifier. Two complete scenes acquired at different dates in different locations are classified. The scenes were chosen such that they are representative of typical ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea in March 1988 and because ancillary information is available for validating the segmentation of various ice surface conditions.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗

Constraining the Sulfur Dioxide Degassing Flux from Turrialba Volcano, Costa Rica Using Unmanned Aerial System Measurements

Observed sulfur dioxide (SO2)mixing ratios onboard unmanned aerial systems (UAS) duringMarch 11-13, 2013 are used to constrain the three-day averaged SO2 degassing flux fromTurrialba volcanowithin a Bayesian inverse modeling framework. A mesoscale model coupled with Lagrangian stochastic particle backward trajectories is used to quantify the source-receptor relationships at very high spatial resolutions (i.e., b1 km). The model shows better performance in reproducing the near-surface meteorological properties and observed SO2 variations when using a first-order closure non-local planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. The optimized SO2 degassing fluxes vary from 0.59 +/- 0.37 to 0.83 +/- 0.33 kt d−1 depending on the PBL scheme used. These fluxes are in good agreement with ground-based gas flux measurements, and correspond to corrective scale factors of 8-12 to the posteruptive SO2 degassing rate in the AeroCom emission inventory. The maximum a posteriori solution for the SO2 flux is highly sensitive to the specification of prior and observational errors, and relatively insensitive to the SO2 loss term and temporal averaging of observations. Our results indicate relatively low degassing activity but sustained sulfur emissions from Turrialba volcano to the troposphere during March 2013. This study demonstrates the utility of low-cost small UAS platforms for volcanic gas composition and flux analysis.

Xi, Xin↗

Monitoring tropical vegetation succession with LANDSAT data

The shadowing problem, which is endemic to the use of LANDSAT in tropical areas, and the ability to model changes over space and through time are problems to be addressed when monitoring tropical vegetation succession. Application of a trend surface analysis model to major land cover classes in a mountainous region of the Phillipines shows that the spatial modeling of radiance values can provide a useful approach to tropical rain forest succession monitoring. Results indicate shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral responses. These variations can be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data. Using the model to estimate both elevation and spectral terrain surface as a posteriori inputs in the classification process leads to improved classification accuracy for vegetation of cover of this type. Spatial patterns depicted by the MSS data reflect the measurement of responses to spatial processes acting at several scales.

Robinson, V. B.↗

Mimas: Preliminary Evidence For Amorphous Water Ice from VIMS

We have conducted a statistical clustering analysis (1,2) on a mosaic of VIMS data cubes obtained on February 13, 2010, for Saturn s satellite Mimas. Seven VIMS cubes were geometrically projected and re-sampled to a common spatial resolution. The clustering technique consists of a partitioning algorithm coupled to a criterion that prevents sub-optimal solutions and tests for the influence of random noise in the measurements. The clustering technique is agnostic about the meaning of the clusters, and scientific interpretation requires their a posteriori evaluation. The preliminary results yielded five clusters, demonstrating that spectral variability across Mimas surface is statistically significant. The ratios of the means calculated for each of the clusters show structure within the 1.6- micron water ice band, as well as the shape and the central wavelength of the strong ice band at 2 micron, that map spatially in patterns apparently related to the topography of Mimas, in particular certain regions in and around Herschel crater. The mean spectra of the five clusters, show similarities with laboratory spectra of amorphous and crystalline H2O ice (3) that are suggestive of the presence of an amorphous ice component in certain regions of Mimas, notably on the central peak of Herschel, on the crater floor, and in faults surrounding the crater. This may represent a mixture of both ice phases, or perhaps a layer of amorphous ice on a base of crystalline ice. Another possible occurrence of amorphous ice appears southwest of Herschel, close to the south pole.

Cruikshank, Dale P.↗