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DOE OSTI2026

The solubility of NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 and stability of Nd and Dy chloride and hydroxyl complexes as a function of pH and salinity to 450 °C

The mobility of rare earth elements (REE) in geological systems is often controlled by the stability of monazite and xenotime, which are important hosts for the light and heavy REE. These REE phosphates constitute important resources and provide information on ore formation conditions and timing due to their uses as geothermometers and geochronometers. While the thermodynamic properties for these minerals are well-established up to high temperature and pressure, the properties for the aqueous REE complexes are not well constrained with limited information up to 300 °C. In this study, the solubility of synthetic NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 endmembers were measured in hydrothermal sub- to supercritical NaCl-bearing aqueous solutions from 350 at saturated water vapor pressure to 450 °C at 700 bar. The speciation of Nd and Dy was determined in acidic to alkaline solutions (pH 25 °C values from 2 to 10), and indicates that the hydroxyl species REE(OH) 2 + and REE(OH) 3 0 predominate at low salinity (0.01 mol/kg NaCl) with some contribution of REE chloride species REECl 2+ and REECl 2 + in acidic fluids. The REE phosphate solubility measured in these experiments is up to two orders of magnitude higher than predicted using existing thermodynamic properties from literature for aqueous species extrapolated from lower temperature data to supercritical conditions. To address this discrepancy, the thermodynamic properties of the REE aqueous species were optimized using GEMSFITS to derive the formation constants for the REE chloride (β Cl ) and hydroxyl (β OH ) complexes in the studied temperature range. This study highlights the importance of the hydroxyl species REE(OH) 2 + and REE(OH) 3 0 over a wide range of pH and temperature. As a result, the revised thermodynamic properties for Dy and Nd chloride and hydroxyl species more accurately predict the solubility of NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 and provide insight into the speciation and mobility of the light and heavy REE in hydrothermal supercritical fluids in the crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An international study on THM modelling of the full-scale heater experiment at Mont Terri laboratory

We present results from an international model comparison study of the Full-Scale Emplacement (FE) experiment in Opalinus Clay at the Mont Terri Laboratory, Switzerland. Based on a provided parameter set the teams decided which parameters they adopted for their models, whether they considered the excavation and the ventilation phase in addition to the heating phase and if they included technical features like the shotcrete or the EDZ. The teams were able to reproduce the measured parameters temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure. The modelled results for temperature agree very closely between the teams especially in the sensors in Opalinus Clay. All teams were able to reproduce the redistribution of water in the bentonite backfill due to heating. The evolution of the relative humidity showed similar trends with differences in the intensity of the dry out effect. To model the pore pressure evolution is more complex because it comprises the full interaction of the coupled THM processes. The spread between the pore pressure modelled by the teams was larger, with some teams overestimating the pressure increase due to heating and some teams overestimating the extent of drainage. The agreement of modelled results with measurements improves with larger distance to the heater. We conclude that the EDZ and the shotcrete potentially influence the behaviour of the rock causing higher differences closer to the heater. Further research is needed to better implement those influences into the models. Based on the calibrated models, the future evolution of temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure was predicted over the next 10 years following a change of the heat power applied in 2023 and 2024. Again, the predicted temperatures agree very closely between the teams. Most teams do not expect an increase in relative humidity during the next 10 years after the initial dry-out.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Seismic Risk for CO2 Geologic Storage: Comparative Analysis of the Delaware Basin and Basin and Range Province Projects

ABSTRACT: Effective management of induced seismicity is critical for safe and sustainable CO2 storage. This study evaluates fault slippage risks in the Delaware Basin (Texas) and Basin and Range Province (Utah), integrating geological, operational, and geomechanical parameters to assess fault stability and seismic hazard mitigation. In the Delaware Basin, two sites were analyzed under an injection rate of 20,000 bbl/day over 25 years. One site showed low fault slip risk, while the other exhibited higher reactivation potential due to proximity to critically stressed faults. Sensitivity analysis revealed that increased pore pressure significantly heightened slip potential, highlighting the necessity of precise pressure control and real-time monitoring. In the Basin and Range Province, fault stability was evaluated at Neck of the Desert, Escalante Desert, Parowan, and Beaver sites under injection rates of 8,750 bbl/day per site over 30 years. Minimal fault slip risk was observed at Neck of the Desert and Escalante Desert sites, whereas Parowan and Beaver sites exhibited elevated slip potential due to semi-critically stressed faults sensitive to modest pore pressure increases. The findings demonstrate that fault slippage analysis, combined with sensitivity analysis of pore pressure and friction coefficients, is essential for understanding seismic risks. Continuous monitoring, adaptive injection management, and rigorous geomechanical analysis are key strategies for minimizing induced seismicity in CO2 sequestration projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution lithospheric structure of continental China from joint inversion of surface wave and gravity data

The lithospheric structure of continental China has been previously determined by seismic travel time tomography, surface wave tomography, and joint inversion of body wave and surface wave data. However, due to the inherent limitations of seismic data, the lithospheric structure of continental China is still not well resolved in the shallow part and in some regions where the station coverage is relatively sparse. In this study, we aim at improving the lithospheric structure by joint inversion of seismic surface wave data and satellite gravity data to take advantage of the uniform distribution and complementary strength of the gravity data. Here, the empirical relationship between velocity and density is used as a bridge for joint inversion of surface wave and gravity data. The joint inversion shear-wave velocity Vs (density) model, named as USTClitho1.0g, can fit both surface wave and gravity data well. This high-resolution Vs model can better fit the active airgun source seismic arrival times and better delineate some features in continental China, such as the velocity contrast across the north–south gravity lineament (NSGL), the lithosphere thinning in eastern China, the crustal footprint of the Hainan mantle plume, the likely magma chamber beneath volcanos in northeast China, the middle-lower crust low velocity layer beneath the Tibetan plateau, and the tearing of subducted Indian mantle lithosphere. Our joint inversion Vs model can provide a reference model for geosciences in continental China and surrounding areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The influence of kinematics of deformation on polycrystalline halite dynamic recrystallization: Full-field simulation of simple shear versus pure shear

Rock salt, composed mainly of halite, flows viscoplastically over a wide range of geological conditions, strongly impacting the dynamic evolution of sedimentary basins and orogens. Understanding how dislocation creep, which involves dislocation glide, intracrystalline recovery and dynamic recrystallization, influences the microstructure and rheology of halite under various deformation kinematics and temperatures is crucial for enhancing knowledge of salt flow dynamics. Here, this study employs a full-field numerical simulation method to compare the viscoplastic deformation of polycrystalline halite under simple shear and pure shear conditions up to a natural strain of ε = 1.5 at temperatures ranging from 100 °C to 300 °C. The results are presented in terms of crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO), grain shape preferred orientation (SPO), subgrain boundary direction, grain size and strain rate distribution. The results indicate that the crystallographic anisotropy of individual halite crystals is transferred to the polycrystalline scale, resulting in strain localization, particularly in simple shear simulations. The kinematics of deformation affect the evolution and distribution of high strain-rate bands, determining the direction of intragranular substructures and the morphology of strain-induced grain boundaries, with minimal impact on grain size. The intensity of grain boundary migration increases with temperature, significantly influencing grain morphology and size, thereby obscuring strain localization, while having little effect on CPOs. At low strain (ε < 1.0), CPOs relative to both the maximum shortening direction and the grain SPO are similar regardless of the deformation kinematics. At high strain (ε > 1.0), simple shear CPOs exhibit three stronger {100} maxima with a monoclinic symmetry relative to the grain SPO compared to the six {100} maxima with an orthotropic symmetry relative to the grain SPO generated under pure shear. Therefore, microstructures and CPOs can serve as indicators of the strain path in polycrystalline halite under various conditions, aiding in determining the shear sense and elucidating the deformation kinematics of salt structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated, Coordinated, Open, and Networked (ICON) Science to Advance the Geosciences: Introduction and Synthesis of a Special Collection of Commentary Articles

The sciences struggle with poor integration across disciplines, the absence of coordination within and across data generation and modeling activities, scarce or disconnected open data, and weaknesses of networks to engage diverse stakeholders within and beyond the scientific community. The American Geophysical Union (AGU) is divided into 25 sections intended to encompass the breadth of the geosciences. Here, we introduce a special collection of commentary articles spanning 19 AGU sections on the challenges and opportunities associated with the use of ICON science principles. These principles focus on research intentionally designed to be Integrated, Coordinated, Open, and Networked (ICON) with the goal of maximizing mutual benefit (among stakeholders) and cross-system transferability of science outcomes. This article summarizes the ICON principles; discusses the crowdsourced approach to creating the collection; and explores insights from across the articles. There were multiple common themes among the commentary articles, including the broad agreement that the benefits of using ICON principles outweigh the costs, but that using ICON principles has important risks that need to be understood and mitigated. It was also clear that the ICON principles are not monolithic or static, but should instead be considered a heuristic tool that can and should be modified to meet changing needs. As a whole, the collection is intended as a resource for scientists pursuing ICON science and represents an important inflection point in which the geosciences community has come together around ICON principles as a unified approach for improving how science is done across the geosciences and beyond.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing Complex Energy Security Systems [Slides]

Motivation: DOE is investing in our technology for improving Energy Security; Many of these problems are grand challenges requiring moonshot type efforts; The geoscience paradigm is shifting from data sparse to data rich requiring us to take advantage of the latest computational and AI to tools optimize these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Collaborative Seismic Earth Model: Generation 2

Geological interpretations, earthquake source inversions and ground motion modeling, among other applications, require models that jointly resolve crustal and mantle structure. With the second generation of the Collaborative Seismic Earth Model (CSEM2), we present a global multi-resolution tomographic Earth model that serves this purpose. The model evolves through successive regional- and global-scale refinements. While the first generation aggregated regional models, with this study, we ensure consistency between all individual submodels, resulting in a model that accurately explains wave propagation across scales. Recent regional tomographic models were incorporated, comprising continental-scale inversions for Asia and Africa, as well as regional inversions for the Western US, Central Andes, Iran, and Southeast Asia. Across all regional refinements, over 793,000 source-receiver pairs contributed. Moreover, the long-wavelength Earth model (LOWE) introduces large-scale structures outside of pre-existing local refinements. A full-waveform inversion for global anisotropic P-and S-wave speed structure over a total of 194 iterations with a minimum period of 50 s on a large data set of 1 hr of waveform data from 2,423 earthquakes and over 6 million source-receiver pairs ensures that regional updates in the crust and uppermost mantle translate into updates of deeper, global-scale structure. To test the performance of CSEM2, we evaluate waveform fits between observed and synthetic seismograms at 50 s for an independent data set on the global scale, and on the regional scale for lower periods. We accurately simulate waveforms within and across regional refinements, maintaining the original resolution of the submodels embedded in the global framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Science Gateway for the Repeatable Analysis of Machine Learning Predicted Gravity Anomalies

In recent years, deep learning has become an increasingly popular alternative for modeling in geoscience applications due to its scalability and efficiency. However, the interpretability, compute, data volume, and hyperparameter tuning requirements of deep learning models make development and monitoring difficult. Furthermore, model explainability and communicating results obtained by these models to users or domain experts is a challenge, as domain experts in geoscience also need to have a deep understanding of how those models function in order to support their scientific works. Here, we describe a science gateway and machine learning pipeline for predicting gravity anomalies from geophysical data. The gateway, built on open-source technologies, provides a holistic view of the pipeline through interactive visualizations aimed at enabling efficient exploratory data analysis. The repeatability, reproducibility, and monitoring capabilities of this overall system allow us to iterate and analyze at scale. Using this pipeline and gateway, we can repeatedly produce accurate high-resolution gravity anomaly datasets. By describing the underlying technologies, implementation, and results, here we provide a foundation for the broader adoption of science gateways into cross-cutting geoscience and machine learning research projects as a means to improve the scientific discovery and collaboration in the geophysics and computational sciences community.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mobility of heavy rare earth elements in magmatic-hydrothermal systems: Experimental determination of DyPO 4 solubility in supercritical fluids

Dysprosium (Dy) is part of the heavy rare earth elements (REE) and a critical component in the production of high-performance super magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles, and other green technologies. The HREE phosphate, xenotime, is commonly associated with hydrothermal systems, where the mobility, fractionation, and deposition of REE are controlled by the stability of aqueous complexes and solubility of REE minerals which depend on temperature, pressure, and fluid composition (salinity, pH, and ligand availability). Here, we conducted a series of synthetic DyPO 4 solubility experiments in NaCl-HCl-bearing aqueous solutions (pH of 2 at 25 °C) from 500 to 700 °C and 1.5 kbar using externally heated pressure vessels. DyPO 4 displays a strong prograde solubility with temperature across all studied fluid salinities (0–0.5 m NaCl). The DyPO₄ solubility isotherms at 500 °C, 600 °C, and 700 °C show a complex relationship with salinity where DyPO₄ solubility is highest (39.2–1552 ppm at 500–700 °C) in 0 m NaCl solutions, decreases strongly (21–331 ppm at 500–700 °C) in the 0.06 m NaCl solutions and remains relatively constant in the 0.25 m (42.8–248 ppm) and 0.5 m NaCl (40.2–124 ppm) solutions. Thermodynamic modeling suggests that pH increases as a function of temperature and salinity, and controls solubility due to the stability of chloride complexes (i.e., DyCl +2 and DyCl 2 + ) at 500–600 °C, transitioning to hydroxyl complexes (i.e., Dy(OH) 3 0 ) dominating at 700 °C and relatively alkaline pH. Comparison with NdPO 4 solubility data indicates that the light REE in monazite is significantly more soluble than the heavy REE in xenotime in saline fluids at high temperature (500–700 °C), implying efficient light/heavy REE fractionation in supercritical fluids. The lower solubility of DyPO 4 relative to NdPO 4 suggests that at high temperatures, acidic (pH 2–4), low-salinity (∼5 wt% NaCl) fluids will favor the precipitation of xenotime over monazite as it will cool from 700 °C to below 500 °C. These observations align with paragenetic mineral assemblages in NYF pegmatites (e.g., Baveno, Italy), where xenotime commonly immobilizes heavy REE during the high-temperature hydrothermal stages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

NdPO 4 solubility and aqueous Neodymium speciation in supercritical fluids: An experimental study at 500–700 °C and 1.7 kbar

A key aspect in the formation of rare earth elements (REE) deposits is the role of REE transport as aqueous REE complexes in supercritical hydrothermal solutions, where the nature of the aqueous complex is controlled by solution composition, temperature and pressure. Despite chloride being considered as one of the most abundant transporting ligands in magmatic-hydrothermal fluids, experimental investigations on the stability of aqueous REE chloride complexes are scarce above 300 °C. In this study, synthetic NdPO 4 crystals were reacted with non-saline and saline (0, 0.05 and 0.5 mNaCl), acidic (0.01 mHCl) aqueous solutions in a series of solubility experiments conducted at 500–700 °C and 1.7 kbar, where the solubilities were determined using a stable Nd isotope ( 145 Nd isotope spike) dilution technique. NdPO 4 solubility ranges between 28 ppm and 10,858 ppm, where solubility increases with both temperature and salinity. At 500 °C, log mNdPO 4 increases from –3.93 to –1.60 and there is a strong correlation between NdPO 4 solubility and NaCl concentrations (slope of 1.2 ± 0.3), indicating stabilization of the Nd chloride aqueous complexes with a stoichiometry corresponding to NdCl 2+ . At 600 °C, this correlation is weaker (slope of 0.4, log mNdPO 4 increases from –2.63 to –1.88) indicating the stabilization of both Nd chloride and hydroxyl species controlling solubility. At 700 °C, NdPO 4 solubility is largely independent of NaCl concentration indicating that solubility is controlled by Nd hydroxyl complexes, where stoichiometry suggests the neutral Nd(OH) 3 0 species is dominant. The solubility product (Ksp) of NdPO4 is derived from experimental data with the relation: log K sp = -41.81 – 0.057T – 20987/T, with T temperature in Kelvin. Comparison of the measured Nd phosphate solubility to thermodynamic predictions using the available Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state parameters for aqueous Nd complexes indicate that predictions are up to three orders of magnitude lower compared to experimental observations. This discrepancy is most pronounced in saline solutions, suggesting that thermodynamic properties of the REE chloride species in supercritical fluids require revision. Numerical simulations of fluid-rock interaction between acidic, saline fluids and a Strange Lake felsic mineral assemblage demonstrates that NdPO 4 solubility predictions from models are four to six orders of magnitude lower than those calculated based on empirical fits from experiments, which suggests that acidic, saline fluids may play an important role in mobilizing large amounts of light REE from 450 to 700 °C.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition

Earthquake prediction, the long-sought holy grail of earthquake science, continues to confound Earth scientists. Could we make advances by crowdsourcing, drawing from the vast knowledge and creativity of the machine learning (ML) community? We used Google’s ML competition platform, Kaggle, to engage the worldwide ML community with a competition to develop and improve data analysis approaches on a forecasting problem that uses laboratory earthquake data. The competitors were tasked with predicting the time remaining before the next earthquake of successive laboratory quake events, based on only a small portion of the laboratory seismic data. The more than 4,500 participating teams created and shared more than 400 computer programs in openly accessible notebooks. Complementing the now well-known features of seismic data that map to fault criticality in the laboratory, the winning teams employed unexpected strategies based on rescaling failure times as a fraction of the seismic cycle and comparing input distribution of training and testing data. In addition to yielding scientific insights into fault processes in the laboratory and their relation with the evolution of the statistical properties of the associated seismic data, the competition serves as a pedagogical tool for teaching ML in geophysics. The approach may provide a model for other competitions in geosciences or other domains of study to help engage the ML community on problems of significance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The future of subsurface monitoring: AEC’s breakthroughs in CCS technology

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as a key solution in the fight against climate change. However, for CCS to succeed, it is crucial to ensure that the sequestered CO2 stays safely trapped underground. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has emphasized the need for advancements in subsurface monitoring, measurement, reporting, and verification. Aside from caprock integrity failure, the other primary failure points usually involve defective cement in the casing annulus of wellbores or plugged and abandoned wells. In addition, many energy producers (e.g., oil and gas, geothermal) and storage and disposal operators (e.g., H2 and water) must deal with the same issue. Poorly placed or degraded cement can create pathways for gas or fluid to escape from casing annuli and in plugged and abandoned or orphan wells, posing environmental risks. Yet, a reliable and cost-effective way to monitor cement and well integrity over multiple decades is still unavailable. Traditional geophysical methods like 4D seismic imaging and surface-based electromagnetic monitoring lack the resolution and accuracy for detecting these types of failures (Vasco et al., 2022; Fawad and Mondol, 2021). Wireline logging is expensive to run continuously and is obtrusive to the operation. While fiber optics can potentially be a solution, its bulkiness can significantly compromise the cement's integrity. To address these challenges, the Advanced Energy Consortium (AEC) at The University of Texas at Austin’s Bureau of Economic Geology (the Bureau) has been pioneering research in subsurface monitoring using its portfolio of distributed autonomous microfabricated sensors for harsh subsurface environments since 2008. A class of these microsensors [System on a Chip (SoC)] can be mixed in cement and permanently placed without compromising the cement column; the sensors would then communicate with each other or a data acquisition (DAQ) master node. Another class of the AEC microsensors can be fully autonomous, with rechargeable micro-batteries capable of exceeding 100°C, flash memory, and, currently, a pressure and temperature sensor. They are designed to circulate in mud, geothermal fluids, U-loops, or pipelines. They can log data into memory and are unobtrusive to operations. Our team has been working on a multi-year DOE-funded project (DE-FE0031856)—supported by $2.95M in federal funding and $0.75M in cost-matching from the AEC—to demonstrate SoC sensor utility for CO2 leakage monitoring in CCS applications. This multi-institutional collaboration developed a novel sensing architecture utilizing radiofrequency (RF) microsensors embedded within the cement sheath. These sensors detect CO2 migration and are interrogated via a Smart Casing Collar (SCC).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning for Land Cover Classification Using Only a Few Bands

There is an emerging interest in using hyperspectral data for land cover classification. The motivation behind using hyperspectral data is the notion that increasing the number of narrowband spectral channels would provide richer spectral information and thus help improve the land cover classification performance. Although hyperspectral data with hundreds of channels provide detailed spectral signatures, the curse of dimensionality might lead to degradation in the land cover classification performance. Moreover, in some practical applications, hyperspectral data may not be available due to cost, data storage, or bandwidth issues, and RGB and near infrared (NIR) could be the only image bands available for land cover classification. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data is another type of data to assist land cover classification especially if the land covers of interest have different heights. In this paper, we examined the performance of two Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based deep learning algorithms for land cover classification using only four bands (RGB+NIR) and five bands (RGB+NIR+LiDAR), where these limited number of image bands were augmented using Extended Multi-attribute Profiles (EMAP). The deep learning algorithms were applied to a well-known dataset used in the 2013 IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society (GRSS) Data Fusion Contest. With EMAP augmentation, the two deep learning algorithms were observed to achieve better land cover classification performance using only four bands as compared to that using all 144 hyperspectral bands.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark study of a new simplified DFN model for shearing of intersecting fractures and faults

It is challenging to quantitatively predict shearing of intersecting fractures/faults because of dynamic frictional contacts accompanied by possible nonlinear rock deformation. To address such challenges, a new conceptual model—the simplified DFN model—was proposed and validated by Hu et al. 46 to use major paths (MPs) to represent complicated DFNs for calculation of shearing. In this work, we conducted a benchmark study for three examples that involve different levels of complexity of intersecting fractures, and correspondingly different numbers of MPs. The codes and software that were used in the benchmark cover a range of continuum, discontinuum and hybrid numerical methods: NMM (LBNL), FLAC3D (LBNL), GBDEM (KIGAM), FRACOD (DynaFrax), and CASRock (CAS). The general consistency between DFN and MP cases as predicted by all the codes/software demonstrates that major paths can be used to simplify the geometry of DFNs in a wide range of software. Disagreement in results made by some software and potential future improvements are discussed. We show that (1) shearing of one or multiple major fractures can be reduced if there are multiple smaller intersecting fractures in that area, which is a useful basis for understanding and controlling induced seismicity and merits further analysis, and (2) the agreement achieved in the benchmark examples provide confidence that the simplified DFN model is a promising conceptual model that can be used for different types of numerical approaches and software for simplifying the analysis of the shearing of intersecting fractures and faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Sampling of Ultralow Permeability Geomaterials using Electrokinetics (LDRD Final Report 209234)

This final report on Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project 209234 presents background material for electrokinetics at the pore and porous media scales. We present some theoretical developments related to uncoupling electrokinetic flow solutions, from a manuscript recently accepted into Mathematical Geosciences for publication. We present a summary of two pore-scale modeling efforts undertaken as part of the academic alliance with University of Illinois, resulting in one already submitted journal publication to Transport in Porous Media and another in preparation for submission to a journal. We finally show the laboratory apparatus built in Laboratory B59 in Building 823 and discuss some of the issues that occurred with it.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗