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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Pathways to Carbon Neutrality 2050 in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia has recently set an ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality as early as 2050. To accomplish this, the country will need to strategically reduce its emissions across all sectors. In 2020, Malaysia emitted approximately 368 MtCO2e, with the largest sources of emissions including electricity (36% of total emissions), transportation (17%), and industry (15%)1. We find that the greatest reductions in emissions can therefore come from decarbonizing power generation and electrifying end-use sectors. Digitalization, smart technologies, and improved energy efficiency will significantly reduce economy-wide energy consumption. By leveraging efficient technologies, both Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur can address the challenges posed by rapid urbanization and climate change. Digitalization is a broad category that includes a variety of measures; for example, the wide adoption of high-efficiency appliances and lighting or improved building energy codes in the buildings sector. Similarly, technological improvements can advance industrial energy efficiency, and for transportation, smart technologies cover a shift from private to public transportation and the greater use of electric vehicles. While renewable energy (RE) will play a crucial role in decarbonization, achieving carbon neutrality in certain sectors will be difficult without emerging technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative fuel sources such as hydrogen. In order for Malaysia to rely on CCS as a mitigation option, early investment and incentives to the private sector will be critical. This holds for the use of hydrogen as well: investing in the necessary technology, infrastructure, and human capital will allow Malaysia to position itself as an innovator in the region and leverage these advanced technologies as a key part of its climate strategy. Another possible carbon removal option other than CCS would be a land-use sink; however, given that Malaysia is still developing and may deforest in the near-term, this report does not focus on the mitigation potential of land-use change. With its innovative and bold climate plans, Kuala Lumpur is primed to be a leader in regional climate change efforts. Kuala Lumpur is also engaged in several international collaborations to ensure sustainable city development such as the C40 network and the ASEAN Smart Cities Partnership. As such, the city will play a critical role in contributing to Malaysia’s overall climate goals and as a policy trendsetter through ambitious, scalable plans. One key factor in these emissions reductions is that Kuala Lumpur has full control over its building guidelines, allowing for ambitious policies resulting in significant emissions reductions. However, in other sectors, Kuala Lumpur has less direct control over regulations; for example, power generation and integration of RE are largely in the hands of the Malaysian government. With limited and primarily light industry, Kuala Lumpur’s contributions to emissions reductions here are curbed. And, while Kuala Lumpur has control over local transportation policies like increasing access to and quality of public transportation, broad shifts in transportation will stem from national-level policies. As such, multi-level governance is an integral component of Malaysia’s climate strategy and coordination between local and national governments will be essential in reducing emissions and achieving other climate goals. This report addresses these and other key challenges and opportunities Malaysia faces on the road to carbon neutrality.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

NdFeB Permanent Magnet Uses, Projected Growth Rates and Nd Plus Dy Demands across End-Use Sectors through 2050: A Review

Rare earth element (REE) permanent magnets (NdFeB) are a critical element in a vast and growing number of industrial applications. In consumer electronics, a broad category encompassing computer, CD, and DVD hard drives, in addition to the ubiquitous cell phones, the nominal NdFeB magnet content may be small, but the global market share for this sector accounts for almost 30% of NdFeB demand, due to a large and continually increasing consumer base. It is estimated that wind turbines that primarily employ permanent magnets will add roughly 110 GW annually of on- and off-shore capability over the next few years. Electric vehicles (EVs) and E-bicycles (EBs) equipped with permanent magnet motors comprise the transportation contribution. Permanent magnet motors have garnered nearly 100% of the market share among EV manufacturers worldwide. Industrial, professional service, and personal robots, most using permanent magnets, are also included in the projected global need for rare earths, particularly Nd and Dy. The sector projects significant growth of approximately 10% across robotic categories. In this paper, we calculate the future demand for Nd and Dy through 2050 across these sectors using a compounded annual growth rate coupled with magnet weight and rare earth content. Uncertainties in the estimates, such as the true global production of Nd, a range of end-product scales and/or unit types in each sector, varied magnet compositions, and the variety of uses within a sector, are all considered.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distribution Transformer Demand: Understanding Demand Segmentation, Drivers, and Management Through 2050

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been working closely with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity (OE) to understand the critical drivers and potential means of managing distribution transformer demand through 2050. This effort has consulted with utility representative organizations and transformer manufacturers to understand the problem, characterized the in-service assets, and modeled future demand. Distribution transformers, or service transformers, range from 10 to 5,000 kilovolt-amperes (kVA), have a high-side voltage of less than 34.5 kilovolts, and have step-down power delivery for customer end use. This research will help the manufacturing sector understand production requirements and better inform utility strategies for managing their demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimated HALEU Requirements for Advanced Reactors to Support a Net-Zero Emissions Economy by 2050

The primary purpose of this report is to provide a documented estimate of High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) needs that may be used in Department of Energy discussions with stakeholders as part of preparations to establish the HALEU Availability Program authorized by the Energy Act of 2020. This report employed a two-step process to estimate HALEU needs for commercial advanced reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗
DOE OSTI2023

Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scenario Discovery Analysis of Drivers of Solar and Wind Energy Transitions Through 2050

Deep human-Earth system uncertainties and strong multi-sector dynamics make it difficult to anticipate which conditions are most likely to lead to higher or lower adoption of renewable energy, and models project a broad range of future solar and wind energy shares across future scenarios. To elucidate these dynamics, we explore a large data set of scenarios simulated from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and use scenario discovery to identify the most significant factors affecting solar and wind adoption by mid-century. We generated a data set of over 4,000 scenarios from GCAM by varying 12 different socioeconomic factors at high and low levels, including assumptions about future energy demand, resource costs, and fossil fuel emissions paths, as well as specific technology assumptions including wind and solar backup requirements and storage costs. Using scenario discovery, we assess the most important factors globally and regionally in creating high fractions of solar and wind energy and explore interconnected effects on other systems including water and non-CO 2 emissions. Globally and regionally, we found that solar and wind-related technology costs were the primary drivers of high wind and solar energy adoption, though a few regions depend heavily on other parameters like carbon capture and storage costs, population and gross domestic product trajectories, and fossil fuel costs. We also identify four key paths to high solar and wind energy by mid-century and discuss their tradeoffs in terms of other outcomes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

More land is needed for solar and wind infrastructure under a high renewables scenario in the Western US by 2050

Expanding United States electricity infrastructure to meet growing demand could require extensive power plant development footprints and land use conversion, depending on the mix of generation types chosen. Understanding where future power plant sitings are likely to take place and identifying potential conflicts and land-use tradeoffs will be key to identifying feasible and affordable investments and evaluating regional planning coordination needs. Here we use an integrated modeling framework that combines capacity expansion planning, hourly grid operations, and geospatial techno-economic analysis to develop projections (2025-2050) of power plant sitings in the Western United States (US) at a 1 km 2 resolution for a business-as-usual scenario and a high renewables penetration scenario. We find that 30% more land will be needed in the high renewables scenario as compared to business-as-usual, and that 75% of that development is projected to be located within 10 km of natural areas.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Detailed Vehicle Modeling & Simulation Study Quantifying Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Advanced Vehicle Technologies Through 2050

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) aim to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate vehicle-level fuel savings potential is critical for understanding DOE’s impact. In this work, we simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light duty vehicles. The simulations were performed across: (1) Multiple powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); (2) Vehicle classes (compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], midsize SUV, and pickup trucks); and (3) Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). These various technologies are assessed for six different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. A delay of five years is assumed between laboratory year and model year (the year the technology is introduced into production).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Envisioning Science in 2050

To explore future-focused questions that could impact the future of DOE, a Community of Interest (COI) on Future Scientific Methodologies, sponsored by the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR), was held over three non-consecutive days in November 2020. The COI’s charge was to create a vision for how future computational fabrics might shape, and be shaped by, scientific and technological advances over the next 10 to 30 years.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Highly Resolved Projections of Passenger Electric Vehicle Charging Loads for the Contiguous United States: Results From and Methods Behind Bottom-Up Simulations of County-Specific Household Electric Vehicle Charging Load (Hourly 8760) Profiles Projected Through 2050 for Differentiated Household and Vehicle Types

This report documents enhancements made to the TEMPO (Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options TM ) model to project spatially, demographically, and temporally resolved national-scale EV charging load profiles and describes three scenarios and corresponding datasets created for the NREL demand-side grid (dsgrid) project in support of bulk power systems modeling. In brief, TEMPO was enhanced to disaggregate national and annual energy demand projections into household and county-level projections of passenger electric vehicle (EV) hourly charging load profiles (8760 profiles), accounting for consumer, travel, and temperature variations that impact EV energy demand. In alignment with NREL's forward-looking grid modeling, three scenarios for EV adoption covering 2020-2050 were created-- Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference Case, Electrification Futures Study (EFS) High Electrification, and All EV Sales by 2035 --and associated datasets have been included in the dsgrid platform for public use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Biofuels and Biomass Feedstocks for Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050 - (DECARB) Decarbonizing Energy Through Collaborative Analysis of Routes and Benefits

Utilizing biomass resources, such as cellulosic biomass and waste, can greatly contribute to decarbonization efforts in the U.S. economy. The U.S. bioenergy sector includes corn ethanol production, biodiesel, renewable diesel production, and the utilization of biomass wastes for electricity generation being the primary applications. Within the electricity sector, biopower can play a crucial role as a stable low-carbon resource. Enhancing the electricity mix's diversity could enhance grid reliability. If the issues regarding hot gas cleanup can be resolved, flexible biopower resources like biomass gasification facilities could complement the integration of variable renewable energy sources due to their quick ramp-up and ramp-down times. The criticality of bioenergy deployment lies in its ability to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors, such as aviation, where alternative decarbonization options may not be viable in the short term. Moreover, bioenergy has the potential to be converted into process heating, building materials, and plastics, which are not considered in this study. A set of pathways was carefully chosen to represent viable options for converting ample herbaceous and woody cellulosic feedstocks into fuels, chemicals, and electricity in this study. In conclusion, biomass pathways provide flexibility by generating various types of bioenergy and bioproducts, including electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, biochemicals, and bioplastics. When paired with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), specific bioenergy approaches can effectively extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thus providing an effective decarbonization option for the transportation sector.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗