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NASA NTRS2017

The Open Gateway: Lunar Exploration in 2050

The Moon, with its fundamental science questions and abundant, potentially useful re-sources, is the most viable destination for near-term future human and robotic exploration. Given what we have learned since Apollo, the lunar frontier now presents an entirely new paradigm for planetary exploration. The Lunar Exploration Roadmap [1], which was jointly developed by engineers, planetary scientists, commercial entities, and policymakers, is the cohesive strategic plan for using the Moon and its resources to enable the exploration of all other destinations within the Solar system by leveraging incremental, affordable investments in cislunar infrastructure. Here, we summarize the Lunar Exploration Roadmap, and describe the immense benefits that will arise from its successful implementation.

Lawrence, S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Priority Science Targets for Future Sample Return Missions within the Solar System Out to the Year 2050

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. JSC presently curates 9 different astromaterials collections: (1) Apollo samples, (2) LUNA samples, (3) Antarctic meteorites, (4) Cosmic dust particles, (5) Microparticle Impact Collection [formerly called Space Exposed Hardware], (6) Genesis solar wind, (7) Star-dust comet Wild-2 particles, (8) Stardust interstellar particles, and (9) Hayabusa asteroid Itokawa particles. In addition, the next missions bringing carbonaceous asteroid samples to JSC are Hayabusa 2/ asteroid Ryugu and OSIRIS-Rex/ asteroid Bennu, in 2021 and 2023, respectively. The Hayabusa 2 samples are provided as part of an international agreement with JAXA. The NASA Curation Office plans for the requirements of future collections in an "Advanced Curation" program. Advanced Curation is tasked with developing procedures, technology, and data sets necessary for curating new types of collections as envisioned by NASA exploration goals. Here we review the science value and sample curation needs of some potential targets for sample return missions over the next 35 years.

McCubbin, F. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Geochronology as a Framework for Planetary History through 2050

Invest this decade in in situ instruments(including sample selection and handling can we choose using VR?) to TRL 6; put them on flight missions in the 2020s and 2030s to relevant destinations where in situ precision can provide meaningful constraints on geologic history.

Cohen, Barbara↗
NASA NTRS2024

Additional Aviation Sustainability Strategies

Emissions from the aviation sector are expected to grow significantly in the next few decades due to growing demand for aviation. The U.S. fleet size has increased significantly in the past 20 years, growing from 2,132 aircraft to 5,485 aircraft. Similarly from 1990 to 2019, aviation emissions more than doubled, growing faster than any other transportation mode. These emissions include carbon dioxide (CO2), as well as non-CO2 sources including nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), water (H2O), and particulate matter (soot). However, this report focuses specifically on CO2 emissions because the impacts from CO2 are well-understood and long-lived. There are also many climate goals tied to CO2 emissions, including the US Aviation Climate Action Plan which is pushing for net-zero in 2050. CO2 is a greenhouse, or heat-trapping, gas that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, from wildfires, and natural processes like volcanoes. Greenhouse gases absorb heat radiating from the Earth’s surface and release it in all directions, including back toward Earth’s surface. By adding more CO2 to the atmosphere, humans amplify the natural greenhouse effect, causing global temperature to rise. Since the onset of industrial times in 1750, human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50%. Considering this challenge, the United States has set a climate goal to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions in the U.S. aviation sector by 2050 to reduce the environmental impact of aviation. Net-zero emissions refers to the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CO2, methane or SO2, that are removed from the atmosphere being equal to those emitted by human activity. This contrasts with carbon-neutrality, which refers to no net release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, especially through offsetting emissions, that could be accomplished through a series of actions. As of 2022, the goal of net-zero has been adopted by much of the aviation industry including multiple airlines and countries. To reach net-zero by 2050, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are identified as the technology that could provide the greatest impact within this timeframe. However, certain challenges may limit the production and/or adoption of SAFs in the marketplace, such as competition for feedstocks, production capacity, and high cost. In this case, SAFs would be insufficient to meet the net-zero CO2 emission goals. Therefore, in addition to SAFs, other strategies will be needed to close the gap on emissions produced as a result of SAF shortfalls or to enhance the impact of SAFs on reducing emissions. NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) aims to examine these additional pathways to explore how its research may best contribute to the realization of net-zero emissions by 2050. Specifically, this effort considers strategies that can reduce emissions in the aviation sector in combination with the use of SAFs and carbon offsets while still meeting projected passenger demand. The strategies considered are not only feasible but also could be operationally scalable by 2050. The goal of this report is to investigate additional strategies such as alternative flight and ground operations, providing insight into the CO2 emission reduction potential and feasibility of strategy implementation by 2050.

Carbon Emissions↗
NASA NTRS1999

Increasing CO2 Coupled with Other Anthropogenic Perturbations: Effects on Ozone and Other Trace Gases

The GSFC 2D interactive chemistry-radiation-dynamics model has been used to study the effects on stratospheric trace gases of past and future CO2 increases coupled with changes in CFC'S, methane, and nitrous oxide. Previous simulations with the GSFC model showed that the stratospheric cooling calculated to result from doubling atmospheric CO2 would lead, in the absence of a growth of other anthropogenic gases, to a decrease in upper stratospheric NO(y) of roughly 15%. This work has been extended to simulate changes in stratospheric chemistry and dynamics occurring between the years 1960 and 2050. The simulations have been carried out with and without changes in CO2. In the low latitude upper stratosphere ozone is predicted to be 10% greater in 2050 than in 1990 when increased CO2 is included, compared with an increase of only 2% without the inclusion of CO2. In the low latitude lower stratosphere, ozone is predicted to decrease by about 1% between 1990 and 2050 when CO2 changes are taken into account, in contrast to an approximate 3% increase when they are not. The simulated behavior of water vapor is another example of the coupled responses. Between 1990 and 2050 low latitude water vapor is predicted to increase by 4% and 2% in the upper and lower stratosphere, respectively, without the inclusion of CO2 increases. with the inclusion of CO2 changes, the water vapor increases are predicted to be roughly 12% and 8%, for the upper and lower stratosphere, respectively.

Rosenfield, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Vision for Ice Giant Exploration

From Voyager to a Vision for 2050: NASA and ESA have just completed a study of candidate missionsto Uranus and Neptune, the so-called ice giant planets. It is a Pre-Decadal Survey Study, meant to inform the next Planetary Science Decadal Survey about opportunities for missions launching in the 2020's and early 2030's. There have been no space flight missions to the ice giants since the Voyager 2 flybys of Uranus in 1986 and Neptune in 1989. This paper presents some conclusions of that study (hereafter referred to as The Study), and how the results feed into a vision for where planetary science can be in 2050. Reaching that vision will require investments in technology andground-based science in the 2020's, flight during the 2030's along with continued technological development of both ground- and space-based capabilities, and data analysis and additional flights in the 2040's. We first discuss why exploring the ice giants is important. We then summarize the science objectives identified by The Study, and our vision of the science goals for 2050. We then review some of the technologies needed to make this vision a reality.

2050↗
NASA NTRS2018

Identifying and Forecasting Potential Biophysical Risk Areas within a Tropical Mangrove Ecosystem Using Multi-Sensor Data

Mangroves are one of the most productive ecosystems known for provisioning of various ecosystem goods and services. They help in sequestering large amounts of carbon, protecting coastline against erosion, and reducing impacts of natural disasters such as hurricanes. Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary in Odisha harbors the second largest mangrove ecosystem in India. This study used Terra, Landsat and Sentinel-1 satellite data for spatio-temporal monitoring of mangrove forest within Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary between 2000 and 2016. Three biophysical parameters were used to assess mangrove ecosystem health: leaf chlorophyll (CHL), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). A long-term analysis of meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature was performed to determine an association between these parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics. The correlation between meteorological parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics enabled forecasting of mangrove health and productivity for year 2050 by incorporating IPCC projected climate data. A historical analysis of land cover maps was also performed using Landsat 5 and 8 data to determine changes in mangrove area estimates in years 1995, 2004 and 2017. There was a decrease in dense mangrove extent with an increase in open mangroves and agricultural area. Despite conservation efforts, the current extent of dense mangrove is projected to decrease up to 10% by the year 2050. All three biophysical characteristics including GPP, LAI and CHL, are projected to experience a net decrease of 7.7%, 20.83% and 25.96% respectively by 2050 compared to the mean annual value in 2016. This study will help the Forest Department, Government of Odisha in managing and taking appropriate decisions for conserving and sustaining the remaining mangrove forest under the changing climate and developmental activities.

Shanti Shrestha↗
NASA NTRS2021

Astromaterial Curation and Research at NASA

Astromaterial sample return missions from other planetary bodies (e.g., the Moon, asteroids, the Sun) and astromaterial sample collection missions here on Earth (e.g., Antarctic Meteorites, Cosmic Dust) have been a vital part of NASA’s science vision since nearly its inception. Beginning with the Apollo missions to the Moon and extending to the recent successful sample collection by the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission, these astromaterials collections have been an invaluable resource to scientists and educators around the world. Sample studies continue to provide fundamental insight into how our solar system and its constituent bodies formed and evolved over the past 4.5 billion years. As evidence of their broad impact, there are over 19,141 samples on loan to 433 Principal Investigators in 24 countries [1]. As we plan for exploration missions through 2050, sample return missions will continue to play a vital role in NASA’s science vision. Returned samples truly are the gift that keeps on giving. Having the samples accessible on Earth allows new generations of scientists and new generations of instrumentation to pursue ever evolving scientific questions. For example, the Apollo samples were collected ~50 years ago, yet our views of how the Earth-Moon system formed, the role of volatiles in the early inner solar system, and even the positions of the gas giants in the outer solar system have changed dramatically as a result of Apollo sample analyses conducted very recently. Vital to the long-term viability of any sample return mission is the careful curation of the samples. Curatorial efforts need to begin early in the project lifecycle, not with the return of the samples, but at mission conception. The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at NASA Johnson Space Center is responsible for curating all of NASA’s current and future extraterrestrial samples. Looking at possible sample return missions over the next 35+ years [2], many samples would require curation efforts a step beyond current capabilities, e.g., cold or cryogenic curation, organically and biologically clean curation, curation of gases and ices, and curation of samples with extreme pressure, temperature, or redox requirements. During the lecture, we discuss the current curatorial efforts in JSC curation, as well as discoveries from the astromaterial research. [1] Zeigler, R. A. et al. (2017) Planetary Science Vision 2050 Workshop. [2] McCubbin F. M. et al. (2017) Planetary Science Vision 2050 Workshop.

astromaterial↗
NASA NTRS2022

Specific Power and Efficiency Projections of Electric Machines and Circuit Protection Exploration for Aircraft Applications

The purpose of this paper is to generate specific power and efficiency projections through the year 2050 for electric machines for aircraft applications. A general literature review was performed to identify the types of electric machines that are commonly used and which types have the biggest potential for future aircraft applications due to their high specific power and efficiency. A database with historical data was built to include parameters such as weight [kg], rated power [kW], specific power [kW/kg], RPM, efficiency, year, motor cooling type, application type and motor type to allow for trend identification and accurate projections. Once the data was gathered, multiple curve fits on the historical data were generated and extrapolated to produce the projections for specific power according to conservative, nominal and aggressive projection scenarios. A different process was followed for the efficiency projections due to the scattered nature of the data. A state of the art (SoA) value for efficiency was identified through literature review and was used to create the conservative, nominal and aggressive projections for the time frames of 2030, 2040, and 2050. The efficiency and the specific power projections of EMs for 2050 are 0.989 and 50kW/kg respectively. This paper will also be examining circuit protection as it is an additional component of electric powertrains.

electric machines↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Anthropogenic Activity, Climate Change, and Urbanization on Wetland Habitat in the Platte River Basin​

The Platte River Basin (PRB) is a dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for various flora and fauna, including local and migratory birds. It provides many crucial ecosystem services that benefit humans directly and indirectly. However, anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization have resulted in decline in wildlife habitat, elevated flood risk, and wetland loss. To address this issue, NASA DEVELOP partnered with Audubon Great Plains (AGP) to address the vital habitats within urban areas to protect bird species, reduce flood hazards, and analyze the potential impact of future development on wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to assess land use and land cover (LULC) change. Nighttime lights data from Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) population data were also used as inputs to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. A broad scale analysis across 13 focal cities showed varied changes in land use patterns across the PRB, with the most notable being a decrease in agricultural land coverage and an increase in vegetation and grassland coverage. We overlaid a flood extent map with the LULC classifications in Grand Island to identify possible restoration sites under AGP’s Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative. The results for two proposed scenarios showed that at least 51 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by year 2050. The first scenario (all wetlands are protected) showed that there will be no loss of wetlands by 2050. However, the second scenario (no wetlands are protected) showed a decrease in wetland area and loss of habitat for bird conservation. The results will help AGP to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies in the future.​

Nancee Uniyal↗
NASA NTRS1978

Experimental study of the effect of cycle pressure on lean combustion emissions

Experiments were conducted in which a stream of premixed propane and air was burned under conditions representative of gas turbine operation. Emissions of NOx, CO, and unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) were measured over a range of combustor inlet temperature, pressure, and residence time at equivalence ratios from 0.7 down to the lean stability limit. At an inlet temperature of 600 K, observed NOx levels dropped markedly with decreasing pressure for pressures below 20 atm. The NOx levels are proportional to combustor residence time and formation rates were principally a function of adiabatic flame temperature. For adiabatic flame temperatures of 2050 K and higher, CO reached chemical equilibrium within 2 msec. Unburned hydrocarbon species dropped to a negligible level within 2 msec regardless of inlet temperature, pressure, or equivalence ratio. For a combustor residence time of 2.5 msec, combustion inefficiency became less than 0.01% at an adiabatic flame temperature of 2050 K. The maximum combustion inefficiency observed was on the order of 1% and corresponded to conditions near the lean stability limit. Using a perforated plate flameholder, this limit is well represented by the condition of 1800 K adiabatic flame temperature.

Roffe, G.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The effect of cycle variables on the emissions and performance of lean premixed gas turbine primary zone combustor

Experiments were conducted in which a stream of premixed propane and air was burned under conditions representative of gas-turbine operation. Emissions of NOx, CO, and unburned hydrocarbons were measured over a range of combustor inlet temperature (600-1000 K), pressure (5-30 atm), and residence time (1-3 msec) at equivalence ratios from 0.7 down to the lean stability limit. At inlet temperatures of 800 and 1000 K, NOx emissions displayed little sensitivity to pressure. At an inlet temperature of 600 K, observed NOx levels dropped markedly with decreasing pressure for pressures below 20 atm. NOx levels were proportional to combustor residence time, and formation rate was principally a function of adiabatic flame temperature. For adiabatic flame temperatures of 2050 K and higher, CO reached chemical equilibrium within 2 msec. Unburned hydrocarbon species dropped to a negligible level within 2 msec regardless of inlet temperature, pressure, or equivalence ratio. For a combustor residence time of 2.5 msec, combustion inefficiency became less than 0.01% at an adiabatic flame temperature of 2050 K. The maximum combustion inefficiency observed was of the order of 1% and corresponded to conditions near the lean stability limit.

Roffe, G.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Effect of hot isostatic pressing on reaction-bonded silicon nitride

Specimens of nearly theoretical density have been obtained through the isostatic hot pressing of reaction-bonded silicon nitride under 138 MPa of pressure for two hours at 1850, 1950, and 2050 C. An amorphous phase that is introduced by the hot isostatic pressing partly accounts for the fact that while room temperature flexural strength more than doubles, the 1200 C flexural strength increases significantly only after pressing at 2050 C.

Watson, G. K.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Microstructure of reaction-bonded silicon nitride consolidated by isostatic hot-pressing

A microstructural examination and chemical analysis are conducted for reaction-bonded Si3N4 specimens that were isostatically hot pressed at 1850, 1950, and 2050 C. The present observations indicate that the previously reported increase in the 1200 C bend strength of reaction-bonded Si3N4, after pressing at 2050 C exclusively, is due to the relative oxygen levels of the isostatically hot pressed specimens; calculations show that an SiO2 content of less than about 2.2 vol pct is needed to yield the 1200 C strength increase.

Mieskowski, D. M.↗