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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr. –1 , emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050

Wind energy has experienced accelerated cost reduction over the past five years—far greater than predicted in a 2015 expert elicitation. Here we report results from a new survey on wind costs, compare those with previous results and discuss the accuracy of the earlier predictions. In this work, we show that experts in 2020 expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37–49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015. This is due to cost reductions witnessed over the past five years and expected continued advancements. If realized, these costs might allow wind to play a larger role in energy supply than previously anticipated. Considering both surveys, we also conclude that there is considerable uncertainty about future costs. Our results illustrate the importance of considering cost uncertainty, highlight the value and limits of using experts to reveal those uncertainties, and yield possible lessons for energy modellers and expert elicitation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bounding the costs of electric vehicle managed charging—supply curves for scenarios from 2025 to 2050

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption increases, the resulting EV battery charging will increase demand on the electric power grid. Through EV managed charging (EVMC) programs, charging can be shifted in time to support electric grid reliability and reduce electricity costs. EVMC can offer an alternative to additional supply-side generation, but the costs of EVMC implementation must be understood to evaluate the cost-benefits of EVMC. This paper presents bottom-up, forward-looking (from 2025 through 2050) estimates of the incremental costs associated with different EVMC dispatch mechanisms available to electric utilities. The costs of enabling EVMC for a range of customer participation levels are presented in the form of supply curves, which provide per-EV costs for a targeted level of participation. The largest drivers of cost variation are assumptions about future charging flexibility paradigms described in four scenarios. These supply curves can be used to quantify the expected costs of EVMC programs and enable comparison with supply-side or other demand flexibility alternatives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Are We on Track for 2050? A Materials Research & Sustainability Perspective

In commemoration of the Materials Research Society (MRS)'s 50th anniversary, the 2050 panel hosted a discussion to reflect on the past, present, and future of sustainability and the role of materials research and development. Three panelists discussed their views, based on their expertise, about future challenges and lessons from the past. Sustainable development is a broad topic; therefore, the discussion centered on their experience as material researchers and their efforts for a better and greener future. This work is developed in collaboration with the co-authors team, highlighting the need for accelerating research and development efforts, especially in materials science and applications, fostering interdisciplinary partnerships, and mobilizing collective action to address the complex and interconnected sustainability challenges that humanity is currently facing.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,ENVIRONMENTAL↗
DOE OSTI2023

PR100: Estimated Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Adoption and Load Estimation in Puerto Rico through 2050

The 2-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Study analyzed stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico’s clean energy future. Outputs relating to electricity demand modeling were partially informed by estimates of electric vehicle adoption across all classes of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), and the ensuing charging loads. To create these estimates, the team developed a transportation model for MHDVs in Puerto Rico to estimate the amount and geospatial distribution of energy used. Charging schedules for the different end uses of MHDVs were then used to construct electric load shapes assuming a portion of those vehicles would be replaced by battery electric counterparts. Study results showed that, by 2050, electric vehicles may constitute roughly 50% of the MHDV population in Puerto Rico. The resulting electrical demand curve attributable to MHDV charging showed that, for solar energy-based electrical systems with limited energy storage, this demand may create challenges unless appropriately managed either on the demand or supply side.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Cost of Offshore Wind Energy in the United States From 2025 to 2050

This study presents estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy throughout major U.S. coastal regions between a time frame of 2025 - 2050. The LCOE modeling accounts for impacts of supply chain shocks, inflation, and rising interest rates on cost. Given the near-term uncertainty in these factors, we present three possible scenarios driven by how uncertainty in costs, technology, and deployment may evolve over time. The cost increases reported by industry in recent years will likely be felt over next several years, but we expect long-term cost reductions enabled by growing offshore wind deployment and industry learning. This study helps inform decision-makers about the potential role that offshore wind energy can play in future clean energy strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pathways to Carbon Neutrality 2050 in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia has recently set an ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality as early as 2050. To accomplish this, the country will need to strategically reduce its emissions across all sectors. In 2020, Malaysia emitted approximately 368 MtCO2e, with the largest sources of emissions including electricity (36% of total emissions), transportation (17%), and industry (15%)1. We find that the greatest reductions in emissions can therefore come from decarbonizing power generation and electrifying end-use sectors. Digitalization, smart technologies, and improved energy efficiency will significantly reduce economy-wide energy consumption. By leveraging efficient technologies, both Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur can address the challenges posed by rapid urbanization and climate change. Digitalization is a broad category that includes a variety of measures; for example, the wide adoption of high-efficiency appliances and lighting or improved building energy codes in the buildings sector. Similarly, technological improvements can advance industrial energy efficiency, and for transportation, smart technologies cover a shift from private to public transportation and the greater use of electric vehicles. While renewable energy (RE) will play a crucial role in decarbonization, achieving carbon neutrality in certain sectors will be difficult without emerging technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative fuel sources such as hydrogen. In order for Malaysia to rely on CCS as a mitigation option, early investment and incentives to the private sector will be critical. This holds for the use of hydrogen as well: investing in the necessary technology, infrastructure, and human capital will allow Malaysia to position itself as an innovator in the region and leverage these advanced technologies as a key part of its climate strategy. Another possible carbon removal option other than CCS would be a land-use sink; however, given that Malaysia is still developing and may deforest in the near-term, this report does not focus on the mitigation potential of land-use change. With its innovative and bold climate plans, Kuala Lumpur is primed to be a leader in regional climate change efforts. Kuala Lumpur is also engaged in several international collaborations to ensure sustainable city development such as the C40 network and the ASEAN Smart Cities Partnership. As such, the city will play a critical role in contributing to Malaysia’s overall climate goals and as a policy trendsetter through ambitious, scalable plans. One key factor in these emissions reductions is that Kuala Lumpur has full control over its building guidelines, allowing for ambitious policies resulting in significant emissions reductions. However, in other sectors, Kuala Lumpur has less direct control over regulations; for example, power generation and integration of RE are largely in the hands of the Malaysian government. With limited and primarily light industry, Kuala Lumpur’s contributions to emissions reductions here are curbed. And, while Kuala Lumpur has control over local transportation policies like increasing access to and quality of public transportation, broad shifts in transportation will stem from national-level policies. As such, multi-level governance is an integral component of Malaysia’s climate strategy and coordination between local and national governments will be essential in reducing emissions and achieving other climate goals. This report addresses these and other key challenges and opportunities Malaysia faces on the road to carbon neutrality.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

NdFeB Permanent Magnet Uses, Projected Growth Rates and Nd Plus Dy Demands across End-Use Sectors through 2050: A Review

Rare earth element (REE) permanent magnets (NdFeB) are a critical element in a vast and growing number of industrial applications. In consumer electronics, a broad category encompassing computer, CD, and DVD hard drives, in addition to the ubiquitous cell phones, the nominal NdFeB magnet content may be small, but the global market share for this sector accounts for almost 30% of NdFeB demand, due to a large and continually increasing consumer base. It is estimated that wind turbines that primarily employ permanent magnets will add roughly 110 GW annually of on- and off-shore capability over the next few years. Electric vehicles (EVs) and E-bicycles (EBs) equipped with permanent magnet motors comprise the transportation contribution. Permanent magnet motors have garnered nearly 100% of the market share among EV manufacturers worldwide. Industrial, professional service, and personal robots, most using permanent magnets, are also included in the projected global need for rare earths, particularly Nd and Dy. The sector projects significant growth of approximately 10% across robotic categories. In this paper, we calculate the future demand for Nd and Dy through 2050 across these sectors using a compounded annual growth rate coupled with magnet weight and rare earth content. Uncertainties in the estimates, such as the true global production of Nd, a range of end-product scales and/or unit types in each sector, varied magnet compositions, and the variety of uses within a sector, are all considered.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
NASA NTRS2015

Germinating the 2050 Cis-Lunar Econosphere

In early 2013, Marshall Space Flight Center's upper management chartered a diverse team for a six-week 'sprint' to speculate (in a disciplined manner) and paint (with broad brush strokes) a picture of how earth, space, and public/private entities might be operating and relating to each other... in the year 2100. Two 12-person groups of civil servants, one with members having 15 years or less of NASA experience and the other with more senior members, worked independently and then compared and integrated their conclusions. In 2014, the 'Space 2100' team, with some new team members and different group boundaries, ran a longer sprint to a) develop more detailed estimates of the operations and economics of space activities in the vicinity of the Earth and Moon in the 2050 time frame, b) identify evolutionary paths, barriers, and opportunities, and c) suggest actions and philosophies to enable and invigorate progress towards the vision. This paper explores Space 2100's first two sprints and their projections of NASA's role in what will likely be a highly networked, international space industry and cis-lunar infrastructure.

Scott, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Germinating the 2050 Cis-Lunar Econosphere

In early 2013, the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Director and MSFC's Office of Strategic Analysis and Communications (OSAC) chartered a diverse team for a six-week "sprint" to speculate (in a disciplined manner) and paint (with broad brush strokes) a picture of how earth, space, and public/private entities might be operating and relating to each other...in the year 2100. Two 12-person groups of civil servants, one with members having 15 years or less of NASA experience and the other with more senior members, worked independently and then compared and integrated their conclusions. In 2014, the "Space 2100" team, with some new team members and different group boundaries, ran a longer sprint to a) develop more detailed estimates of the operations and economics of space activities in the vicinity of the Earth and Moon in the 2050 time frame, b) identify evolutionary steps and viable paths needed to make that a reality, and c) recommend actions to enable and invigorate those steps. This paper explores Space 2100's first two sprints and their projections of NASA's role in what will likely be a highly networked international space industry and cis-lunar infrastructure.

Scott, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Processing Tomato Production Is Expected to Decrease By 2050 Due to the Projected Increase in Temperature

The global processing tomato production is concentrated in a small number of regions where climate change will have a significant impact on the future supply. Process-based tomato models project that the production in the three main producing countries (the United States, Italy, and China, representing 65% of global production) will decrease 6% by 2050, compared to the baseline period of 1980-2009. The predicted reduction in processing tomato production is due to a simulated increase in air temperature. Under an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, California and Italy might not be able to sustain the current levels of processing tomato production due to water resources constraints. Cooler producing regions, such as China and the northern parts of California, stand to improve their competitive advantage. The projected environmental changes indicate that the main growing regions of processing tomatoes might change in the coming decades.

Tomato production↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distribution Transformer Demand: Understanding Demand Segmentation, Drivers, and Management Through 2050

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been working closely with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity (OE) to understand the critical drivers and potential means of managing distribution transformer demand through 2050. This effort has consulted with utility representative organizations and transformer manufacturers to understand the problem, characterized the in-service assets, and modeled future demand. Distribution transformers, or service transformers, range from 10 to 5,000 kilovolt-amperes (kVA), have a high-side voltage of less than 34.5 kilovolts, and have step-down power delivery for customer end use. This research will help the manufacturing sector understand production requirements and better inform utility strategies for managing their demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimated HALEU Requirements for Advanced Reactors to Support a Net-Zero Emissions Economy by 2050

The primary purpose of this report is to provide a documented estimate of High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) needs that may be used in Department of Energy discussions with stakeholders as part of preparations to establish the HALEU Availability Program authorized by the Energy Act of 2020. This report employed a two-step process to estimate HALEU needs for commercial advanced reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗