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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Horizon-scale variability of M87* from 2017–2021 EHT observations

Here, we report three epochs of polarized images of M87* at 230 GHz using data from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) taken in 2017, 2018, and 2021. The baseline coverage of the 2021 observations is significantly improved through the addition of two new EHT stations: the 12 m Kitt Peak Telescope and the Northern Extended Millimetre Array (NOEMA). All observations result in images dominated by a bright, asymmetric ring with a persistent diameter of 43.9 ± 0.6 µas, consistent with expectations for lensed synchrotron emission encircling the apparent shadow of a supermassive black hole. We find that the total intensity and linear polarization of M87* vary significantly across the three epochs. Specifically, the azimuthal brightness distribution of the total intensity images varies from year to year, as expected for a stochastic accretion flow. However, despite a gamma-ray flare erupting in M87 quasi-contemporaneously to the 2018 observations, the 2018 and 2021 images look remarkably similar. The resolved linear polarization fractions in 2018 and 2021 peak at ∼5%, compared to ∼15% in 2017. The spiral polarization pattern on the ring also varies from year to year, including a change in the electric vector position angle helicity in 2021 that could reflect changes in the magnetized accretion flow or an external Faraday screen. The improved 2021 coverage also provides the first EHT constraints on jet emission outside the ring, on scales of ≲ 1 mas. Overall, these observations provide strong proof of the reliability of the EHT images and probe the dynamic properties of the horizon-scale accretion flow surrounding M87*.

accretion, accretion disks↗
DOE OSTI2022

2021 Annual Site Environmental Report

This report provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the public with information on the level of radioactive and non-radioactive pollutants (if any) that are added to the environment as a result of Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory’s (PPPL) operations. The results of PPPL’s 2021 environmental surveillance and monitoring program are presented and discussed. The report also summarizes environmental initiatives, assessments, and community involvement programs that were undertaken in 2021. PPPL’s on-site operations were significantly curtailed in 2021 due to the global coronavirus pandemic. PPPL has engaged in fusion energy research since 1951. The Laboratory’s mission is to develop the scientific knowledge and advanced engineering to enable fusion to power the U.S. and the world, and to developing the understanding of plasmas from the nano- to the astrophysical scale. PPPL’s primary experiment, the National Spherical Torus Experiment-Upgrade (NSTX-U) is a collaboration among national laboratories, universities, and national and international research institutions and is a major element in the US Fusion Energy Sciences Program. Its design tests the physics principles of spherical torus (ST) plasmas, playing an important role in the development of smaller, more economical fusion reactors. Due to previous operational issues, NSTX-U did not operate in 2021. PPPL is engaged in a project to replace key NSTX-U components and systems to enable operation of this international fusion user facility. In 2021, PPPL’s radiological environmental monitoring program measured tritium in the air at the NSTX-U Stack and at onsite sampling stations. Using highly sensitive air monitors, PPPL is capable of detecting small changes in the ambient levels of tritium. The operation of an in-stack monitor located on D-site is used to demonstrate compliance with the National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) regulations. Also included in PPPL’s radiological environmental monitoring program, are water monitoring – ground, surface, and waste waters. PPPL’s radiological monitoring program characterized the background levels of tritium in the environment and those data are presented in this report. Ground water monitoring continued under New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s (NJDEP) Site Remediation Program regulations. PPPL monitored for non-radiological contaminants, mainly volatile organic compounds (components of common degreasing solvents). In 2021, PPPL complied with permit limits for surface and sanitary discharges. PPPL was honored with awards for EPEAT-certified electronics purchasing and use of peracetic acid as an alternative water treatment chemical in its non-potable process water systems an NJDEP recycling award.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Argonne Leadership Computing Facility: 2021 Operational Assessment Report

This Operational Assessment Report describes how the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) met or exceeded every one of its goals for calendar year (CY) 2021 as an advanced scientific computing center. In CY 2021, the ALCF operated its production resource, Theta, an Intel-based Cray XC40 system (11.7-petaflops) augmented with 24 NVIDIA DGX A100-based nodes (3.9-petaflops) that supports diverse workloads, integrating data analytics with artificial intelligence (AI) training and learning in a single platform. In 2021, we began deploying Polaris, our newest 40- petaflops system, and augmented this powerful testbed system with an additional 28 nodes to support the integration of real-time experiments and HPC resources. We also deployed our two largest storage systems yet, named Grand and Eagle, that will bring new services to our users and will power data-driven research for years to come. Last year, Theta delivered a total of 20.8 million node-hours to 16 Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) projects and 7.2 million node-hours to ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) projects (32 awarded during the 2020–2021 ALCC year and 17 awarded during the 2021–2022 ALCC year), as well as substantial support to Director’s Discretionary (DD) projects (5.5 million node-hours). As Table ES.1 shows, Theta performed exceptionally well in terms of overall availability (95.1 percent), scheduled availability (99.4 percent), and utilization (98.1 percent; Table 2.1). As of the submission date of this document, ALCF’s user community has published 249 papers in high-quality, peer-reviewed journals and technical proceedings. At the 2021 International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC’21), Argonne researchers won two HPCwire Readers’ Choice Awards and were part of a Gordon Bell Prize finalist team recognized for developing an AI-enabled, multi-resolution simulation framework for studying complex biomolecular machines. Their framework was used to observe the SARS-CoV-2 replication-transcription machinery in action, by directly integrating experimental data. ALCF also provided a comprehensive program of high-performance computing (HPC) support services to help our community make productive use of the facility’s diverse and growing collection of resources. We are now entering the exascale era, with exascale machines being planned for national laboratories across the country, including Aurora at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in 2023. ALCF researchers have been leading and guiding numerous strategic activities that will push the boundaries of what’s possible in computational science and engineering and allow us to deliver science on day one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

WHOLESCALE: Seismic Survey Data from San Emidio Nevada 2021

This dataset includes raw and processed seismic data from the 2021 seismic survey at the San Emidio geothermal field in Nevada. In April and May 2021, 37 tri-axial short period seismographs were deployed in a 1.8km diameter cluster centered on 40.367278 N, 119.409019 W. The first data record started at 2021-04-06T07:09:10Z UTC and the last record ended at 2021-05-11T02:58:52Z UTC. The 37 stations included 29 SmartSolo IGU-16HR 3C all-in-one 5 Hz seismographs and 8 DataCube seismographs with 4.5 Hz HGS HG-6(B coil) tri-axial geophones. The raw format (level 0) data includes 353 GB of 500 sps SmartSolo data in native DLD format, 113 GB of 400 sps DataCube data in native DataCube format, and 3.4 GB of GPS data collected during the RTK GPS survey. The SAC data (level 1) files include 564 GB of hourly SAC files. The experiment was designed to monitor seismic activity before, during, and after the planned three-day plant maintenance shutdown April 19-21, 2021. The pumping stopped at 2021/04/19 12:51:45 UTC and resumed about 2021/04/21 21:00:00 UTC. The dataset is hosted in an AWS data lake, with an associated GDR data set providing the metadata. Links to both of these resources are included below. Additionally, this collection features data and metadata from a 2016 seismic survey at the same site for comparative analysis.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

WHOLESCALE: Seismic Survey Metadata from San Emidio Nevada 2021

This is a collection of metadata from the 2021 seismic survey at the San Emidio geothermal field in Nevada. In April and May 2021, 37 tri-axial short period seismographs were deployed in a 1.8km diameter cluster centered on 40.367278 deg N, 119.409019 deg W. The first data record started at 2021-04-06T07:09:10Z UTC and the last record ended 2021-05-11T02:58:52Z UTC. The 37 stations included 29 SmartSolo IGU-16HR 3C all-in-one 5 Hz seismographs and 8 DataCube seismographs with 4.5 Hz HGS HG-6(B coil) tri-axial geophones. The raw format (level 0) data includes 353 GB of 500 sps SmartSolo data in native DLD format, 113 GB of 400 sps DataCube data in native DataCube format, and 3.4 GB of GPS data collected during the RTK GPS survey. The SAC data (level 1) files include 564 GB of hourly SAC files. The experiment was designed to monitor seismic activity before, during, and after the planned three-day plant maintenance shutdown April 19-21, 2021. The pumping stopped at 2021/04/19 12:51:45 UTC and resumed about 2021/04/21 21:00:00 UTC. The raw and processed data are in an associated GDR submission, linked below. The metadata here includes files containing experiment details, station locations, seismic data logger specifications, instrumentation specifications, and descriptions of data. Also included are data and metadata from a 2016 seismic survey at the same site.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

2021 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is an update to the NETL report on the same topic that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2020. Anticipated reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 10.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2020 to 15.7 percent for Summer 2021 in ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves [CDR] report published in December 2020 and 2021 Summer Preliminary SARA published in March 2021. Using data from ERCOT’s 2021 Summer SARA, CDR, and historical performance data, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2021. The results suggest that ERCOT could make it through the summer season without a loss of load event, as long as the weather remains normal. However, through a combination of scenarios, including increased demand, increased forced outages, and low wind output, ERCOT is likely to find itself operating in emergency conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2021

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2021. Images were captured from early spring (1 April) through to mid fall (22 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, then from 2021-07-09 images were recorded every 10 minutes until the end of data collection on 2021-10-22. Images have been combined in *.zip format (6.1 GB). Closer fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 4 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. These cameras were operated from 2021-06-19 to 2021-09-22, with images recorded every 30 minutes from 9:00 to 16:30 Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Individual jpg images from each camera have been combined in zip format. The data package includes a metadata document with example fields of view from each camera (*.pdf). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial Study 2021: Sensor-Based Time Series of Surface Water Temperature, Specific Conductance, Total Dissolved Solids, pH, and Dissolved Oxygen from across Multiple Watersheds in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v3)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. The dataset provides two-hour time series hydrological and water chemistry sensor data, manual chamber open channel respiration data, handheld sensor water chemistry data, river substrate grain size photos, general environmental context photos, and field metadata (including qualitative information on instream and river corridor characteristics) collected during the same two-week period at 47 sites within multiple rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Grain size photos can be used to improve estimates of channel substrate D50 data. Related sample-based water chemistry data are published separately at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1898914.This dataset is comprised of four main folders, one containing three sensor-specific subfolders and the others containing photographs. The SFA_SpatialStudy_2021_SensorData main data folder includes file-level metadata (FLMD), data dictionary (dd), installation methods, field metadata, Ultrameter water chemistry data, field data collection protocols, international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file, and a readme file. The “Sensor_Manual_Specifications” subfolder contains pdf files from the manufacturer of each sensor with details on the sensor specifications. Each sensor subfolder (BarotrollAtm, MantaRiver, and MinidotManualChamber) contains a sensor data subfolder for timeseries data and a subfolder for plots and summary statistics. The BarotrollAtm Data subfolder contains In Situ Rugged BaroTROLL pressure and temperature data. The MantaRiver Data subfolder contains Eureka Manta+ 35B multisonde temperature, specific conductance, and pH data. The MinidotManualChamber Data subfolder contains PME MiniDOT Logger dissolved oxygen (mg/L and percent saturation) and temperature data. The folder SFA_SpatialStudy_2021_EnvironmentalContextPhotos contains environmental context photographs and videos. The folders SFA_SpatialStudy_2021_SedimentQuadratPhotos_Part1 and SFA_SpatialStudy_2021_SedimentQuadratPhotos_Part2 contain sediment quadrat photographs. All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .jpg, .jpeg, .mp4, or .mov. This data package was originally published September 2022. It was updated January 2023 (modified files) and June 2024 (new and modified files). See the change history in data package readme for more details.We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Meteorological, reference evapotranspiration and estimated transpiration data, July 2020-Dec 2021, Slate River Floodplain, Crested Butte, Colorado

This data package includes a time series of meteorological data (air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, precipitation, wind speed, soil heat flux, incoming shortwave radiation, incoming longwave radiation, outgoing shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation) from the Slate River floodplain outside Crested Butte, Colorado, a focus field site for the SLAC Floodplain Hydro-Biogeochemistry SFA. The data was generated as part of the work targeting the overarching research question for the SLAC SFA: How do ubiquitous subsurface interfaces mediate molecular-scale biogeochemical processes and groundwater quality in floodplains and watersheds? The package also includes reference evapotranspiration calculated via the Penman-Monteith equation and an estimate of willow (Salix spp.) evapotranspiration using the method of Irmak et al., J. Hydrology, 2013. Due to two malfunctioning sensors (incoming shortwave radiation from Oct 2020-May 2021 and incoming longwave radiation from May 2021-March 2022), observed net radiation and calculated evapotranspiration are only included from July-October 2020. However, users may be able to extend calculated evapotranspiration using estimates of these two parameters from other sources. Both sensors have been replaced and data beyond 2021 be uploaded to this repository when it is available.Within the data package, "FLMD.csv" describes file-level metadata and "dd.csv" defines column headers and universal terms across the dataset. The data package includes 3 "*data.csv" files, two for meteorological data for 2020 and 2021 and one for reference evapotranspiration and transpiration data from 2020 ("SLT_OBJ2_PenmanMonteith_2020_data.csv"). Each "*data.csv" file of meteorological data has a corresponding "*_InstallationMethods.csv" file that describes the location, sensor model, sensor serial number and other metadata corresponding to each measured parameter. We also include a Jupyter notebook ("PenmanMonteithET_Calculations.ipynb") that details the assumptions and equations used to calculate daily and hourly reference evapotranspiration and daily willow transpiration from raw meteorological data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Y-12 Groundwater Protection Program Groundwater and Surface Water Sampling and Analysis Plan (CY 2021)

This plan provides a description of the groundwater and surface water quality monitoring activities planned for calendar year (CY) 2021 at the U.S. Department of Energy Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) that will be managed by the Y-12 Groundwater Protection Program (GWPP). Groundwater and surface water monitoring is performed by the GWPP. Groundwater and surface water monitoring will be performed in three hydrogeologic regimes at Y-12: the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (Bear Creek Regime), the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (East Fork Regime), and the Chestnut Ridge Hydrogeologic Regime (Chestnut Ridge Regime). The Bear Creek and East Fork regimes are located in Bear Creek Valley and the Chestnut Ridge Regime is located south of Y-12. Additional surface water monitoring will be performed north of Pine Ridge along the boundary of the Oak Ridge Reservation. The following sections of this report provide details regarding the CY 2021 groundwater and surface water monitoring activities. Section 2 describes the monitoring locations in each regime and the processes used to select the sampling locations. A description of the field measurements and laboratory analytes is provided in Section 3. Sample collection methods and procedures are described in Section 4, and Section 5 lists the documents cited for more detailed operational and technical information. The narrative sections of the report reference several appendices. Figures (maps and diagrams) and tables (excluding a data summary table presented in Section 4) are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. Groundwater Monitoring Schedules (when issued throughout CY 2021) will be inserted in Appendix C, and addenda to this plan (if issued) will be inserted in Appendix D. Laboratory requirements (bottle lists, holding times, etc.) are provided in Appendix E, and an approved Waste Management Plan is provided in Appendix F. Modifications to the CY 2021 monitoring program may be necessary during implementation. Changes in programmatic requirements may alter the analytes specified for selected monitoring wells or may add or remove wells from the planned monitoring network. Each modification to the monitoring program will be approved by the Y-12 GWPP manager and documented as an addendum to this sampling and analysis plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

ASMT-783246, Assessment Report for Department 635 Analysis of Fiscal Year 2021 ES&H Events

This assessment analyzes Environment, Safety, and Health (ES&H) occurrences and Non-Occurrence Trackable Events (NOTEs) from fiscal year (FY) 2021. For this report, assessors used three primary methods for categorizing occurrence and NOTE data: issue categorization, DOE reporting criteria groups, and DOE cause codes. The FY 2021 Q1 occurrence and NOTE total was the lowest since this type of analysis began in FY 2018 Q4, following a downward trend from the FY 2019 Q3 high point. The FY 2021 Q2 occurrence and NOTE total was nearly double the FY 2021 Q1 total; occurrence totals declined slightly in Q3 and Q4, while NOTE totals remained the same. NOTEs in each of the final three quarters were more than double the amount from Q1. This assessment resulted in one observation. As COVID-19 vaccination rates increase and COVID 19 impacts on operations decrease, the number of workers on-site and the amount of activity-level work will increase. With these changes, focused attention on the following areas related to work planning and controls may reduce the probability of future events, hazard identification and analysis, compliance with standards, formality of operations, and job scoping.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The DOE CSSG: 2021 the Year in Review [Slides]

2021 accomplishments include completed taskings (2021-01, CSSG Review of Draft Revision to DOE-STD-1134 amd 2021-02, CSSG Review of FY22 NCSP Proposals) and a panel presentation at the 2021 ANS Winter Meeting. Projected taskings for 2022 include CSSG Guidance to NNSA on Contract Transition Regarding Criticality Safety, self-assessment of the CSSG, and a focus on improving the visibility and relevance of the CSSG. The CSSG is active and always seeking opportunities to assist. The CSSG is striving to be a strong, unified voice, bringing reason to and/or keeping reason in Criticality Safety. The CSSG is well positioned to continue their support role into the future.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report; Wind Energy Program: Fiscal Year 2021

The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC), located at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Flatirons Campus, has been a driving force in advancing wind energy technology research worldwide since its designation as a DOE national research center in 1992. Enabled by the Flatirons Campus's world-class facilities, scientists, engineers, analysts, and researchers are pushing the frontiers of science to pursue wind energy innovation. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, NREL continued to provide the technical expertise, research capabilities, and industry understanding to support DOE's ambitious climate action and research goals by advancing technology, addressing market and deployment barriers, and driving down costs with more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. One of several highlights, NREL received an R&D 100 Special Recognition Award for its Thermoplastic Resin System for Wind Turbine Blades. This breakthrough in the wind turbine manufacturing process will enable the production of recyclable blades that are stronger, longer, and less expensive, while increasing energy capture, decreasing energy and transportation costs, and increasing blade reliability. In a year when the entire U.S. economy struggled to address workforce gaps, an NREL study compared wind industry needs, training programs, and hiring practices with perspectives from students and recent college graduates. Researchers hope that, by pinpointing areas of disconnect, the expectations of employers who have difficulty filling entry-level jobs can better align with the preparation of the potential applicants who find it hard to break into the field. The lab also made numerous new data and modeling resources available in FY 2021. Recent NREL releases include a modeling tool for predicting the power performance and structural loads of wind turbines within a wind farm (FAST.Farm), a computational framework for modeling golden eagle behavior near wind farms, and 20 years of offshore wind data. Updates were also made to the widely used Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM), which couples engineering and cost models to examine system-level trade-offs. Now, bolstered by a renewed national commitment to tackle climate change and revitalize the U.S. economy through increased investment in clean energy - particularly in offshore wind energy - NREL stands poised to lead the way to a sustainable future that powers the United States with significant levels of reliable, low-cost, accessible wind energy. This report provides an overview of the achievements NREL made on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during FY 2021 (between Oct. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021).

Flatirons Campus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving commercial truck fleet composition in emission modeling using 2021 US VIUS data

Commercial trucks are essential elements of the nation's supply chain system. Meanwhile, intensive truck movements contribute significantly to system externalities, such as energy use and air pollution. However, collecting detailed fleet composition and distribution of operational patterns remains a barrier to accurately accounting for these impacts. The recently released 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS) fills a critical gap in understanding commercial truck fleet distributions, their operations, and business constraints at the national scale. This study aims to understand the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and calibrate the fleet inputs in regulatory emission models to assess the potential emission implications of the VIUS-derived fleet composition. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to improve fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The study also investigates potential emission reduction benefits under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. The energy consumption and critical air pollutant rates by vehicle types are compared between MOVES4 and US VIUS fleets for both current and future scenarios to provide insights into the latest U.S. commercial vehicle fleet characteristics and their implications on energy and emissions. This study helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. It also deepens the understanding of the emission reduction potential of the commercial fleet under various fleet projections.

2021 US VIUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Extremal Dependence to Better Characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Zhang, Likun (ORCID:0000000154584556)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the mid-latitude zonal circulation on dynamic mechanism of anomalous precipitation over China in summer 2021

China was hit by extreme precipitation in July and August of 2021 along with significant monthly variation. The positive precipitation anomalies observed in July were mainly located in eastern China, but these anomalies shifted to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) in August. In this study, we investigated the July and August precipitation anomaly dynamics based on the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC) method. The results showed that the mid-latitude zonal circulation played a dominant role in July 2021, causing anomalous positive relative vorticity advection over the center of the positive precipitation anomalies, thus providing strong convective activity for the anomalous precipitation. Nevertheless, the August anomalies could be better explained from a climate perspective. The anomalous relative vorticity distribution patterns recorded in August were often accompanied by extreme precipitation in the MLYR, and the negative relative vorticity anomalies identified in Northeast Asia also played a crucial role. In conclusion, the mechanisms of precipitation anomalies in July and August 2021 were almost completely disparate. In this study, we emphasized the role of the mid-latitude zonal circulation in extreme precipitation events, and suggested that the impact of mid-latitude zonal circulation will be further accentuated under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tidal Energy Resource Characterization, Velocity and Turbulence Measurements, Processed Data, Cook Inlet, AK, 2021

This submission contains processed datasets from a long-term deployment of 3 moorings and a transect survey of the proposed tidal energy site off the East Forelands in Cook Inlet, AK. The long-term mooring datasets were created from 8 instruments mounted on a Terrasond High Energy Oceanographic Mooring (THEOM) bottom lander and two Mid-Water Mooring (MWM) Stablemoor buoys from 1 July 2021 to 31 August 2021 (60 days). The west-most mooring (MWM1) was deployed at 60.720225 N, 151.436196 W in ~50 m of water. The middle mooring (THEOM) was deployed at 60.720703 N, 151.429500 W in ~52 m of water. The east-most buoy (MWM2) was deployed at 60.720081 N, 151.420896 W in ~50 m of water. Each Stablemoor carried three instruments: 1. A Nortek Vector acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) mounted at the Stablemoor's nose. Data were recorded at 8 Hz on a 5 minute duty cycle every 20 minutes. Data was motion-corrected using the internal IMU and external ADCP bottom-track data and then bin-averaged into 4 minute bins and converted to the Principal (streamwise, cross-stream, vertical) coordinate system. (Note: 30 seconds were trimmed from the beginning and end of each 5 minute duty cycle to account for the filter end-effects from turning on and turning off the IMU.) 2. A down-looking Nortek Signature 1000 kHz acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) mounted in the first Stablemoor instrument well. Data were recorded in 2 Hz with 5-beam burst and bottom-track enabled. Processed data has been averaged into 10 minute bins and converted into the Principal coordinate system. 3. An up-looking Nortek Signature 1000 kHz acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) mounted in the second Stablemoor instrument well. Data were recorded at 4 Hz with 5 beam burst enabled. Processed data has been averaged into 10 minute bins and converted into the Principal coordinate system. Note: the down-facing ADCP on MWM1 failed on July 10th, 2021, only recording 9 days of data. Because ADV motion-correction required bottom track, the ADV from MWM1 also only has 9 days processed. Additionally, only 25 days of data were processed from the MWM2 ADV because it appeared to have been impacted by debris on 7/25. Two instruments were mounted on the THEOM (see MHKDR link further below for THEOM raw data): 4. A Nortek Vector acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV). Data were recorded at 8 Hz on a 5 minute duty cycle every 20 minutes. Data was bin-averaged into 5 minute bins, and converted to the Principal coordinate system. 5. A Nortek Signature 500 kHz acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). Data were recorded in 4 Hz in the beam coordinate system from all 5 beams. Processed data has been averaged into 10 minutes bins and converted to the Principal coordinate system.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗