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Safeguards Technology Development Program 3rd Quarter FY 2018 Report June 30, 2018 GPS-Free Navigation in Buildings

This is an evaluation of candidate navigation solutions for GPS free inspection tools that can be used in tours of large building interiors. In principle, COTS portable inertial motion unit (IMU) sensors with satisfactory accuracy, SWAP (size, weight, power), low error, and bias drift can provide sufficiently accurate dead reckoning navigation in a large building in the absence of GPS. To explore this assumption, the capabilities of representative IMU navigation sensors to meet these requirements will be evaluated and field tested, starting with a market survey. To test the candidate COTS IMUs drawn from the market survey, we will design and fabricate a person-portable backpack for testing. We will provide a mobile power supply and data collection port. Then, we will test the IMUs on interior building tours at LLNL, finally carrying out an analysis of these sensors’ performance using LLNL’s navigation codes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Safeguards Technology Development Program 4th Quarter FY 2018 Report September 30, 2018

This is an evaluation of candidate navigation solutions for GPS free inspection tools that can be used in tours of large building interiors. In principle, COTS portable inertial motion unit (IMU) sensors with satisfactory accuracy, SWAP (size, weight, power), low error, and bias drift can provide sufficiently accurate dead reckoning navigation in a large building in the absence of GPS. To explore this assumption, the capabilities of representative IMU navigation sensors to meet these requirements will be evaluated and field tested, starting with a market survey. To test the candidate COTS IMUs drawn from the market survey, we will design and fabricate a person-portable backpack for testing. We will provide a mobile power supply and data collection port. Then, we will test the IMUs on interior building tours at LLNL, finally carrying out an analysis of these sensors’ performance using LLNL’s navigation codes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Inventory and Probabilistic Function of Natural Hazards in the United States: July 19, 2018 - September 18, 2018

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a standardized risk assessment process that considers the location-specific vulnerabilities and threats (climate-related as well as human-caused) at a site to generate a ranked list of organizational risks and associated mitigation options for reducing those risks. To support this effort, the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) team, was selected to provide climate science expertise to develop a comprehensive inventory and probabilistic function of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and sea level rise) for the entire United States by region. The inventory of climate-related hazards and the associated likelihood scores are incorporated into a companion risk assessment tool enabling standardized comparisons of risk at sites across the country.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nevada National Security Site 2018 Data Report: Groundwater Monitoring Program, Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site

This report is a compilation of the groundwater and waste cell leachate sampling results from the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada. Groundwater samples from the aquifer immediately below the Area 5 RWMS have been collected and analyzed and static water levels have been measured in this aquifer since 1993. These groundwater data are evaluated for evidence of effects on the aquifer related to the Area 5 RWMS. Leachate from one lined mixed waste cell at the Area 5 RWMS (Cell 18) has been sampled since the cell opened in 2011. These leachate data are analyzed for hazardous contaminants to determine appropriate leachate handling and disposal. A second lined mixed waste cell at the Area 5 RWMS (Cell 25) began receiving waste in August 2018, but no leachate samples were collected or analyzed during 2018. This report includes data from 2014 through 2018 but focuses on the 2018 data. During 2018, groundwater samples were collected and static water levels were measured at three wells surrounding the Area 5 RWMS. Groundwater samples were collected at wells UE5PW-1, UE5PW-2, and UE5PW-3 on March 6 and August 14, 2018. Static water levels were measured at each of these wells on March 5, June 4, August 13, and October 25, 2018. Groundwater monitoring at the Area 5 RWMS complies with Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 264.97, General ground-water monitoring requirements , and 40 CFR 264.98, Detection monitoring program. Groundwater samples were analyzed for indicators of contamination (pH, specific conductance [SC], total organic carbon, total organic halides, and tritium) and, beginning in 2017, toxicity characteristic metals (arsenic, barium, cadmium, chromium, lead, mercury, selenium, and silver). General water chemistry parameters (calcium, iron, magnesium, manganese, potassium, sodium, sulfate, chloride, fluoride, bicarbonate, and silicate) were also measured. Results from samples collected in 2018 are within the limits for each parameter established by the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection in Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Permit NEV HW0101, Revision 6. Data from the shallow aquifer indicate there has been no measurable impact to the uppermost aquifer from the Area 5 RWMS, and there were no significant changes in measured groundwater parameters compared to previous years. Leachate from lined mixed waste Cell 18 drains into a sump and is pumped into an above ground tank. Samples are collected from the tank when the leachate volume approaches the 3,000-gallon tank capacity. During 2018, leachate samples were collected on March 1, 2018 and August 1, 2018. All leachate analysis results are below the regulatory levels for toxicity characteristic contaminants (40 CFR 261.24) and below the investigation levels for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), tritium, pH, and SC specified in RCRA Permit NEV HW0101, Revision 6. No quantifiable PCB levels were detected in any leachate sample. Based on the leachate analysis results, RCRA Permit NEV HW0101 allowed all leachate collected from Cell 18 to be pumped from the collection tank and used for dust control at Cell 18.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Herbaceous Feedstock 2018 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations, and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible, and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT aligned feedstock logistic design with current biorefinery’s design capacity utilized by biochemical conversion platform. Currently biochemical conversion platform utilizes a 725,000 dry ton/year biorefiney design for the techno economic analysis. Hence, feedstock delivered cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT is calculated based on biorefinery’s 725,000 dry ton design capacity instead of 800, 000 dry ton capacity utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. Biomass availabilities in this SOT were updated to year 2018 data from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16) (DOE 2016a), with the exception of switchgrass, for which the 2018 Herbaceous SOT utilized the 2019 switchgrass availability data from BT16. The BT16 report (DOE 2016a) does not project switchgrass availability in 2018; the soonest switchgrass is available in the BT16 report is 2019. Therefore, availability of switchgrass for this analysis was that projected for 2019. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT incorporates same technologies utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. However, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the impact of variation of process parameters on those technologies on feedstock logistic cost. New R&D data that shows the variations of process parameters affecting process performance is incorporated in the 2018 SOT to measure the variations in delivered feedstock cost. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT has also provided projected delivered feedstock of 2022 design case based on near term technical target under BETO funded R&D project. Finally, updated biorefinery size of 725,000 dry ton/year was incorporated within least-cost formulation model to select optimal siting and depot scales during optimization of the least cost blend. This modification to the optimization algorithm allows the trade-off between the cost of increased supply radius and the savings from selecting biomass from higher producing counties to be assessed. Such optimization has also showed the economic benefit of decentralized depots in comparison to centralized preprocessing co-located with the biorefinery by decoupling the biorefinery and feedstock locations. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of a herbaceous feedstock supply system (from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat, including grower payment) for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $83.67/dry ton (2016$); this is a $0.23/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. The modification of biorefinery’s designed capacity and increased projected biomass availability in the same supply shed contributed to this modeled cost reduction. The least-cost formulation model to optimally site and scale local distributed preprocessing depots also contributed to the cost reduction by considering county-level grower payment and distance from the biorefinery as variables in the optimization algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on various process parameters that affect delivered feedstock cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT shows that the delivered cost could varies from $80.45-$88.83/dry ton. The top factors that causes such variations are: effective baling rate, bale density, hammer mill throughput, interest rate and storage dry matter loss.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Site Environmental Report for 2018

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL, Berkeley Lab) is a multi-program scientific facility operated by the University of California (UC) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Berkeley Lab’s research is focused on the physical, biological, environmental, and computational sciences, with the objective of delivering scientific knowledge and discoveries pertinent to DOE’s mission. This annual report describes environmental protection activities and potential impacts resulting from LBNL operations conducted in 2018. The format and content of this report satisfy the requirements of both DOE Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1 (Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting) and the operating contract between UC and DOE (DOE Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231, also known as Contract 31). LBNL activities are planned and conducted with full regard to protecting employees, the public, and the environment, as well as complying with all applicable environmental, safety, and health laws and regulations. As presented in Chapter 2, Berkeley Lab implements an Environmental Management System (EMS) to oversee environmental compliance activities and continually improve overall environmental performance while maintaining operational capability and sustaining its overall mission. The effectiveness of the EMS and environmental programs is reviewed annually as part of the performance evaluation process of Contract 31. For fiscal year (FY) 2018, which began October 1, 2017, and ended September 30, 2018, the EMS was given a performance rating of B plus for its management of environmental activities (on a scale from A plus as the highest grade, to F as the lowest). The measurement and rating system was developed jointly by Berkeley Lab, UC, and DOE. The FY 2018 rating was based on how Berkeley Lab met the objective in DOE’s FY 2018 Performance Evaluation and Measurement Plan (Appendix B in Contract 31, Section J) of providing an efficient and effective EMS. Six significant accomplishments, which ranged from effective teaming on projects and with regulatory agencies to improved program assessment approaches, were factors in the rating. The EMS was also graded through the federal Office of Management and Budget’s annual EMS performance metrics, in which a reporting scorecard rates elements of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 14001 standard and the degree of integration between the EMS and Berkeley Lab’s sustainable practices. Overall scores fall into one of three categories: green (highest), yellow (middle), or red (lowest). For FY 2018, Berkeley Lab received a score of green. A week-long formal conformity audit of the EMS was conducted at the end of July by a qualified external party, as is required every three years. The audit team found that Berkeley Lab’s EMS continues to conform to the ISO standard with no major nonconformance. An overview of environmental protection and restoration programs is provided in Chapter 3, including information about compliance activities, operating permits, and regulatory agency inspections and audits that occurred during 2018. Twenty-one minor violations and two Class II violations were issued during agency inspections of programs governing aboveground and underground storage tanks, hazardous waste treatment units, hazardous waste storage areas, hazardous materials management, and wastewater, stormwater, and air emission sources. This report also includes information on environmental monitoring performed in 2018 (Chapter 4). The results of these monitoring activities confirmed that groundwater cleanup actions have been effective in reducing concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the groundwater, although concentrations appear to be reaching asymptotic levels in some areas. Site groundwater plumes are stable or are attenuating, and VOCs are not migrating off site. All emissions and discharges from LBNL operations were within environmental compliance release limits except oxides of nitrogen and carbon monoxide from boilers (under 5 million BTUs) from Buildings 2, 66, and 88. The radiological dose assessments (Chapter 5) performed in 2018 concluded that the maximum potential dose to a hypothetical resident from Berkeley Lab’s airborne radionuclide releases was approximately 0.04% of the DOE and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency annual limit of 10 millirem per year (mrem/yr); the potential dose from all radiation sources at Berkeley Lab was approximately 0.15% of the average natural background radiation dose of 310 mrem/yr in the United States, and about 0.5% of the DOE annual limit of 100 mrem/yr from all sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2018 Report on Rare Plant Monitoring and Restoration at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Experimental Test Site (Site 300)

This document meets the reporting requirements of LLNL’s California Endangered Species Act Scientific, Educational, or Management Permit (No. 2081 (a)-15-005-RP) for 2018. Section A describes monitoring and field activities conducted by LLNL biologists at the Site 300 native and experimental populations and the Carnegie Canyon native population of the federally-endangered plant, Amsinckia grandiflora (the large-flowered fiddleneck), between January 2018 and December 2018. In addition, monitoring and field activities conducted by LLNL biologists at the Site 300 native populations of the rare plants Eschscholzia rhombipetala (the diamond-petaled California poppy) and Blepharizonia plumosa (the big tarplant) between January 2018 and December 2018 are described in Sections B and C, respectively. Both plants have a California Rare Plant Rank (CRPR) of 1B, which includes species that are rare or endangered throughout their range. California macrophylla (the round-leaved filaree), formerly had a CRPR of 1B, but was downgraded to CBR (Considered But Rejected) in December 2017, as the species was “too common statewide: counties that contain small, localized populations under severe threat should track C. macrophylla as a species of local concern” (California Native Plant Society, 2018). As C. macrophylla is widespread at Site 300 (Carlsen and Paterson, 2018), 2018 will be the final year of monitoring C. macrophylla at Site 300, the results of which are described in Section D. Monitoring of the Navarretia nigelliformis ssp. radians (adobe navarretia), a CRPR 1B species, is planned, and results will be included in future reports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Indirect Liquefaction, Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2018 State-of-Technology Cases and Design Cases

This technical report describes the SCSAs for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies: (1) renewable high octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL) of woody lignocellulosic biomass (note that the IDL pathway in this SCSA represents the syngas conversion design in the 2018 SOT and 2022 design cases [Tan et al., 2018]); (2) renewable gasoline (RG) and diesel (RD) blendstocks via ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis of woody lignocellulosic biomass; (3) RD via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass; (5) renewable diesel via HTL of a blend of algae and woody biomass; and (6) renewable diesel via combined algae processing (CAP). This technical report focuses on the environmental performance of these six biofuel production pathways in their 2018 SOT cases, as well as in their design cases (future target projections). The results of these renewable hydrocarbon fuel pathways in these SCSA analyses update those for the respective 2015 and 2016 SOT cases (Edward Frank et al. 2016; Hao Cai et al. 2016, 2017; Cai et al. 2018) in the case of IDL, algae CAP, and biochemical conversion pathways. They also provide an opportunity to examine the impact of technology improvements in both biomass feedstock production and biofuel production that have been achieved in 2018 SOTs on the sustainability performance of these renewable transportation fuels, and they reflect updates to Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET®) model, which was released in October 2018 (Wang et al. 2018). These GREET updates include production of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum-based fuels that can influence biofuels’ supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO2, CH4, and N2O) emissions, water consumption and air pollutant emissions. GHG emissions, water consumption, and 2 nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions are the main sustainability metrics assessed in this analysis. In this analysis, we define water consumption as the amount of water withdrawn from a freshwater source that is not returned (or returnable) to a freshwater source at the same level of quality. Life-cycle fossil energy consumption and net energy balance, which is the life-cycle fossil energy consumption deducted from the renewable biofuel energy produced, are also assessed.

02 PETROLEUM↗

2018 Wind Technologies Market Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. Highlights of this year’s report include: ~Wind power capacity additions continued at a robust pace in 2018: $11 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2018. In 2018, wind energy contributed 6.5% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and more than 30% in three of those states—Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma. 232 gigawatts of wind are seeking transmission interconnection, 2% of which represents proposed wind plants paired with storage. ~Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance, and taller towers are on the horizon. The average 2018 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 through 2017 was 42%, compared to an average of 31% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 24% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen to $700–$900/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2018 was $1,470/kW, down 40 percent since the peak in 2009 and 2010. ~Wind energy prices are at historical lows: After topping out at 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to below 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Solar PPA prices have declined precipitously, pressuring wind’s competitive position. ~The grid-system value of wind has declined over the last decade, but rebounded over the last two years. The value of wind in wholesale power markets is impacted by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind in 2018 was the lowest in the Southwest Power Pool and Texas (average of $17/MWh and $18/MWh, respectively) whereas the highest-value market was New England (at $41/MWh). Wind energy prices are generally competitive with these value estimates. ~The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (75-90%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the nacelle. Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 114,000 full-time workers at the end of 2018. ~Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions of 9,000-12,000 MW in 2019 and 11,000-15,000 in 2020, with market contraction anticipated beginning in 2021 as those tax incentives are phased out.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Indirect Liquefaction, Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2018 State-of-Technology Cases and Design Cases

This technical report describes the SCSAs for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies: (1) renewable high octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL) of woody lignocellulosic biomass (note that the IDL pathway in this SCSA represents the syngas conversion design in the 2018 SOT and 2022 design cases [Tan et al., 2018]); (2) renewable gasoline (RG) and diesel (RD) blendstocks via ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis of woody lignocellulosic biomass; (3) RD via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass; (5) renewable diesel via HTL of a blend of algae and woody biomass; and (6) renewable diesel via combined algae processing (CAP). This technical report focuses on the environmental performance of these six biofuel production pathways in their 2018 SOT cases, as well as in their design cases (future target projections). The results of these renewable hydrocarbon fuel pathways in these SCSA analyses update those for the respective 2015 and 2016 SOT cases (Edward Frank et al. 2016; Hao Cai et al. 2016, 2017; Cai et al. 2018) in the case of IDL, algae CAP, and biochemical conversion pathways. They also provide an opportunity to examine the impact of technology improvements in both biomass feedstock production and biofuel production that have been achieved in 2018 SOTs on the sustainability performance of these renewable transportation fuels, and they reflect updates to Argonne National Laboratory's Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET[R]) model, which was released in October 2018 (Wang et al. 2018). These GREET updates include production of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum-based fuels that can influence biofuels' supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) emissions, water consumption and air pollutant emissions. GHG emissions, water consumption, and 2 nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions are the main sustainability metrics assessed in this analysis. In this analysis, we define water consumption as the amount of water withdrawn from a freshwater source that is not returned (or returnable) to a freshwater source at the same level of quality. Life-cycle fossil energy consumption and net energy balance, which is the life-cycle fossil energy consumption deducted from the renewable biofuel energy produced, are also assessed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Regional differences in tobacco smoking and lung cancer in Portugal in 2018: a population-based analysis using nationwide incidence and mortality data

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal in 2018, complemented by trends in incidence and mortality, by sex and region. Design: Cancer cases for 1998–2011 and cancer deaths for 1991–2018 were obtained from population-based registries and Statistics Portugal, respectively. We projected cases for 2018 and used reported deaths for the same year to estimate, using Peto’s method, the number and proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths caused by tobacco smoking in 2018. We calculated the age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in each year of diagnosis and death. We fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in the rates. Setting: Portugal. Results: In 2018, an estimated 3859 cases and 3192 deaths from lung cancer were attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal, with men presenting a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 82.6% (n=3064) for incidence and 84.1% (n=2749) for mortality, while in women those values were 51.0% (n=795) and 42.7% (n=443), respectively. In both sexes and metrics, the Azores were the region with the highest PAF and the Centre with the lowest. During 1998–2011, the APC for incidence ranged from 0.6% to 3.0% in men and 3.6% to 7.9% in women, depending on region, with mortality presenting a similar pattern between sexes. Conclusion: Exposure to tobacco smoking has accounted for most of the lung cancer cases and deaths estimated in Portugal in 2018. Differential patterns of tobacco consumption across the country, varying implementation of primary prevention programmes and differences in personal cancer awareness may have contributed to the disparities observed. Primary prevention of lung cancer remains a public health priority, particularly among women.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Fiscal Year 2018 Annual Summary Report for the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites at the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy Standard Disposal Authorization Statement and Tank Closure Documentation (DOE-STD-5002-2017) requires preparation of an Annual Summary Report comparing low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities operations with the Disposal Authorization Statement (DAS) and its supporting technical documents including the performance assessment (PA) and the composite analysis (CA). The fiscal year (FY) 2018 Annual Summary Report for the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) was prepared by reviewing planned and discovered changes, waste receipts, monitoring results, research and development (R&D) results, and the status of DAS conditions and issues to assess the validity of the DASs, PAs, and CAs. The Area 3 RWMS was placed in stand-by in 2006 and remained inactive in FY 2018. Resumption of waste disposal operations is planned for FY 2019. No proposed actions, new information, or discoveries affecting the Area 3 RWMS were identified in FY 2018. No significant changes have occurred since preparation of the most recent special analysis, which indicates a continuing reasonable expectation of meeting the PA performance objectives and measures, and the CA dose constraint in DOE O 435.1, “Radioactive Waste Management.” No changes were made to documents supporting the Radioactive Waste Management Basis (RWMB) including the PA, CA, DAS, waste acceptance criteria (WAC), closure plan, monitoring plan, or maintenance plan. Monitoring results for the most recent year with available data, calendar year (CY) 2017, indicate no changes to long-term trends and no results inconsistent with expected performance. R&D results for the Area 3 RWMS Drainage Lysimeter Facility continue to be consistent with the conceptual site model (CSM). All Area 3 RWMS DAS conditions and secondary issues were closed in 2002. The Area 5 RWMS continued disposal operations within the Northern Expansion Area in FY 2018. Eighty-six changes involving proposed actions, new information, or discoveries affecting the Area 5 RWMS PA and CA were screened during FY 2018 in the Unreviewed disposal question (UDQ) process. Twenty-two changes required UDQ evaluations and two changes resulted in unreviewed composite analysis question evaluations. None of the proposed actions, new information, or discoveries had significant impacts on the PAs or CAs. All of the planned changes were implemented. No special analyses were performed, and no changes were made to documents supporting the RWMB including the PA, CA, DAS, WAC, closure plan, monitoring plan, or maintenance plan. Planning continued and construction commenced on development of the Western Expansion Area within the Radioactive Waste Management Complex. All Area 5 RWMS DAS conditions and secondary issues were closed in 2002. The cumulative effects of changes occurring since preparation of the Area 5 RWMS PA and CA were assessed with the current baseline PA/CA model. Model results indicate that there is a reasonable expectation that the PA performance objectives and measures, and the CA dose constraint in DOE O 435.1, “Radioactive Waste Management,” can be met. No PA or CA mean result exceeds 50% of its performance objective. Monitoring results and R&D results continue to be consistent with the CSM. Monitoring results for CY 2017 indicate no changes to long-term trends and no results inconsistent with expected performance. R&D results for the Area 5 RWMS Weighing Lysimeter Facility continue to be consistent with the CSM. The FY 2018 review of Area 3 RWMS and Area 5 RWMS disposal operations supports the following conclusions: The Area 3 and Area 5 RWMS PA and associated CA assumptions and conclusions remain valid based on consideration of all changes identified or planned; The reasonable expectation that the Area 3 and Area 5 RWMSs will meet the performance objectives identified in DOE O 435.1, “Radioactive Waste Management”, remains valid; and The DAS, based on interpretation of the data collected, monitoring results, and other information, continues to be adequate.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Agile Acceleration of LLVM Flang Support for Fortran 2018 Parallel Programming

The LLVM Flang compiler ("Flang") is currently Fortran 95 compliant, and the frontend can parse Fortran 2018. However, Flang does not have a comprehensive 2018 test suite and does not fully implement the static semantics of the 2018 standard. We are investigating whether agile software development techniques, such as pair programming and test-driven development (TDD), can help Flang to rapidly progress to Fortran 2018 compliance. Because of the paramount importance of parallelism in high-performance computing, we are focusing on Fortran’s parallel features, commonly denoted “Coarray Fortran.” We are developing what we believe are the first exhaustive, open-source tests for the static semantics of Fortran 2018 parallel features, and contributing them to the LLVM project. A related effort involves writing runtime tests for parallel 2018 features and supporting those tests by developing a new parallel runtime library: the CoArray Fortran Framework of Efficient Interfaces to Network Environments (Caffeine).

Rasmussen, Katherine↗

A comprehensive and synthetic dataset for global, regional, and national greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1970–2018 with an extension to 2019

To track progress towards keeping global warming well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, comprehensive up-to-date and reliable information on anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required. Here we compile a new synthetic dataset on anthropogenic GHG emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. Our dataset is global in coverage and includes CO 2 emissions, CH 4 emissions, N 2 O emissions, as well as those from fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 , NF 3 ) and provides country and sector details. We build this dataset from the version 6 release of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v6) and three bookkeeping models for CO 2 emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). We assess the uncertainties of global greenhouse gases at the 90 % confidence interval (5th–95th percentile range) by combining statistical analysis and comparisons of global emissions inventories and top-down atmospheric measurements with an expert judgement informed by the relevant scientific literature. We identify important data gaps for F-gas emissions. The agreement between our bottom-up inventory estimates and top-down atmospheric-based emissions estimates is relatively close for some F-gas species (~ 10 % or less), but estimates can differ by an order of magnitude or more for others. Our aggregated F-gas estimate is about 10 % lower than top-down estimates in recent years. However, emissions from excluded F-gas species such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are cumulatively larger than the sum of the reported species. Using global warming potential values with a 100-year time horizon from the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global GHG emissions in 2018 amounted to 58 ± 6.1 GtCO 2 eq. consisting of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion and industry (FFI) 38 ± 3.0 GtCO 2 , CO 2 -LULUCF 5.7 ± 4.0 GtCO 2 , CH 4 10 ± 3.1 GtCO 2 eq., N2O 2.6 ± 1.6 GtCO 2 eq., and F-gases 1.3 ± 0.40 GtCO 2 eq. Initial estimates suggest further growth of 1.3 GtCO 2 eq. in GHG emissions to reach 59 ± 6.6 GtCO 2 eq. by 2019. Our analysis of global trends in anthropogenic GHG emissions over the past 5 decades (1970–2018) highlights a pattern of varied but sustained emissions growth. There is high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased every decade, and emissions growth has been persistent across the different (groups of) gases. There is also high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions levels were higher in 2009–2018 than in any previous decade and that GHG emissions levels grew throughout the most recent decade. While the average annual GHG emissions growth rate slowed between 2009 and 2018 (1.2 % yr –1 ) compared to 2000–2009 (2.4 % yr –1 ), the absolute increase in average annual GHG emissions by decade was never larger than between 2000–2009 and 2009–2018. Our analysis further reveals that there are no global sectors that show sustained reductions in GHG emissions. There are a number of countries that have reduced GHG emissions over the past decade, but these reductions are comparatively modest and outgrown by much larger emissions growth in some developing countries such as China, India, and Indonesia. There is a need to further develop independent, robust, and timely emissions estimates across all gases. As such, tracking progress in climate policy requires substantial investments in independent GHG emissions accounting and monitoring as well as in national and international statistical infrastructures. The data associated with this article (Minx et al., 2021) can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5566761.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗