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Approximation methods for stochastic petri nets

Stochastic Marked Graphs are a concurrent decision free formalism provided with a powerful synchronization mechanism generalizing conventional Fork Join Queueing Networks. In some particular cases the analysis of the throughput can be done analytically. Otherwise the analysis suffers from the classical state explosion problem. Embedded in the divide and conquer paradigm, approximation techniques are introduced for the analysis of stochastic marked graphs and Macroplace/Macrotransition-nets (MPMT-nets), a new subclass introduced herein. MPMT-nets are a subclass of Petri nets that allow limited choice, concurrency and sharing of resources. The modeling power of MPMT is much larger than that of marked graphs, e.g., MPMT-nets can model manufacturing flow lines with unreliable machines and dataflow graphs where choice and synchronization occur. The basic idea leads to the notion of a cut to split the original net system into two subnets. The cuts lead to two aggregated net systems where one of the subnets is reduced to a single transition. A further reduction leads to a basic skeleton. The generalization of the idea leads to multiple cuts, where single cuts can be applied recursively leading to a hierarchical decomposition. Based on the decomposition, a response time approximation technique for the performance analysis is introduced. Also, delay equivalence, which has previously been introduced in the context of marked graphs by Woodside et al., Marie's method and flow equivalent aggregation are applied to the aggregated net systems. The experimental results show that response time approximation converges quickly and shows reasonable accuracy in most cases. The convergence of Marie's method and flow equivalent aggregation are applied to the aggregated net systems. The experimental results show that response time approximation converges quickly and shows reasonable accuracy in most cases. The convergence of Marie's is slower, but the accuracy is generally better. Delay equivalence often fails to converge, while flow equivalent aggregation can lead to potentially bad results if a strong dependence of the mean completion time on the interarrival process exists.

Jungnitz, Hauke Joerg

Initial Results from the Micro-pulse Lidar Network (MPL-Net)

The micro-pulse lidar system (MPL) was developed in the early 1990s and was the first small, eye-safe, and autonomous lidar built for full time monitoring of cloud and aerosol vertical distributions. In 2000, a new project using MPL systems was started at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This new project, the Micro-pulse Lidar Network or MPL-Net, was created to provide long-term observations of aerosol and cloud vertical profiles at key sites around the world. This is accomplished using both NASA operated sites and partnerships with other organizations owning MPL systems. The MPL-Net sites are co-located with NASA AERONET sunphotometers to provide aerosol optical depth data needed for calibration of the MPL. In addition to the long-term sites, MPL-Net provides lidar support for a limited number of field experiments and ocean cruises each year. We will present an overview of the MPL-Net project and show initial results from the first two MPL-Net sites at the South Pole and at Goddard Space Flight Center. Observations of dust layers transported from the Gobi desert, across the Pacific Ocean, to the east coast of the United States will also be shown. MPL-Net affiliated instruments were in place at the desert source region in China, on a research vessel in the Sea of Japan, at ARM sites in Alaska and Oklahoma, and finally at our home site in Maryland (GSFC) during the massive dust storms that occurred in April 2001. The MPL observations of dust layers at each location are shown in comparison to dust layers predicted using the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). Finally, the MPL-Net project is the primary ground-validation program for the Geo-Science Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) satellite lidar project (launch date 2002). We will present an overview demonstrating how MPL-Net results are used to help prepare the GLAS data processing algorithms and assist in the calibration/validation of the GLAS data products.

Welton, Ellsworth J.

Global Patterns in Human Consumption of Net Primary Production

The human population and its consumption profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. A particularly compelling measure of humanity's cumulative impact is the fraction of the planet's net primary production that we appropriate for our Net primary production-the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through photosynthesis-can be measured in units of elemental carbon and represents the primary food energy source for the world's ecosystems. Human appropriation of net primary production, apart from leaving less for other species to use, alters the composition of the atmosphere, levels of biodiversity, flows within food webs and the provision of important primary production required by humans and compare it to the total amount generated on the landscape. We then derive a spatial ba!mce sheet of net primary production supply and demand for the world. We show that human appropriation of net primary production varies spatially from almost zero to many times the local primary production. These analyses reveal the uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations depend on net primary production "imports" and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of human appropriation of net primary production.

Imhoff, Marc L.

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Comparative Assessment of U-Net-Based Deep Learning Models for Segmenting Microfractures and Pore Spaces in Digital Rocks

Segmentation of high-resolution X-ray microcomputed tomography (µCT) images is crucial in digital rock physics (DRP), affecting the characterization and analysis of microscale phenomena in the porous media. The complexity of geological structures and nonideal scanning conditions pose significant challenges to conventional image segmentation approaches. Motivated by the recent increasing popularity of deep learning (DL) techniques in image processing, this work undertakes a comparative study of DL models, specifically U-Net and its variants, for segmenting multiple targets with distinguished features in digital rocks, including discrete fracture networks (DFNs), pore spaces, and solid rock. Particularly, DFNs have a smaller volumetric fraction over others, bringing in a substantial challenge of imbalanced segmentation. The primary focus is to evaluate the architecture and feature enhancement strategies of various DL models, including U-Net, attention U-Net, residual U-Net, U-Net++, and residual U-Net++. The models were designed as 2.5D, utilizing a central 2D image and its two adjacent upper and lower 2D images as input to provide a pseudo-3D context. In addition, because the ground truth of segmentation was unknown for real-world digital rocks, we created a benchmark data set following the inverse operations of segmentation. The data synthesis started from the label images (i.e., solid rock, pore spaces, and DFNs), followed by simulating partial volume blurring, adding random background noise, and introducing ring artifacts to mimic real raw X-ray µCT images. The data set, which included various rock types (i.e., sandstone and artificial data), scanning resolution, and magnitudes of noise and artifacts, was divided into training and testing data sets with a 90% and 10% ratio, respectively. Moreover, in addition to the conventional pixel-wise evaluation metrics, the physics-based metric of the lattice-Boltzmann method (LBM) simulated permeability provided more comprehensive assessments. The results demonstrated that the residual connections, nested architectures, and redesigned skip connections contribute to the model performance and give the residual U-Net++ the highest accuracy. The improvements were mainly on the boundaries and small targets, especially the DFNs, which dominate the interconnectivity and therefore affect the permeability greatly. This study also rigorously evaluated the efficiency and generalization of each model, demonstrating that the sophisticated architectures achieved excellent practicability and maintained robust performance on completely unseen data, ensuring their suitability for diverse and challenging DRP applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal

The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37 th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H 2 ) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO 2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO 2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $\$$250 and $\$$500 per ton CO 2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO 2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO 2 /year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO 2 . Finally, hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H 2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H 2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Discovering Classical Spin Liquids by Topological Search of High Symmetry Nets

Spin liquids are a paradigmatic example of a nontrivial state of matter. The search for new spin liquids is a key interdisciplinary challenge. Geometrical frustration-where the geometry of the net that the spins occupy precludes the generation of a simple ordered state-is a particularly fruitful way to generate these intrinsically disordered states. Prior focus has been on a handful of high symmetry nets. There are, however, many three-dimensional nets, each of which has the potential to form unique states. In this paper, we investigate the high symmetry nets-those which are both vertex- and edge-transitive-for the simplest possible interaction sets: nearest-neighbor couplings of antiferromagnetic Heisenberg and Ising spins. While the well-known crs (pyrochlore) net is the only nearest-neighbor Heisenberg antiferromagnet which does not order, we identify two new frustrated nets (lcx and thp) possessing finite temperature Heisenberg spin-liquid states with strongly suppressed magnetic ordering and noncollinear ground states. With Ising spins, we identify three new classical spin liquids that do not order down to T/J = 0.01. We highlight materials that contain these high symmetry nets, and which could, if substituted with appropriate magnetic ions, potentially host these unusual states. Our systematic survey will guide searches for novel magnetic phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Rooftop Solar Deployment, Potential Electricity Rate Impacts, and the Timing of Revisions to State Net Metering Policy

Most U.S. states require utilities to credit residential solar photovoltaic (PV) output at the retail electricity rate, a structure known as net metering. However, 12 states have replaced net metering with alternative rate structures that reduce PV adopter bill savings. The share of households living in states that require net metering fell from around 84% in 2014 to around 57% by the end of 2023. Proponents of net metering revisions have argued that net metering can affect the electricity rates of customers without PV. This report analyzes the relationships between state PV deployment levels, potential electricity rate impacts on PV nonadopters, and the timing of revisions to net metering policy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Beam energy dependence of net-hyperon yield and its implication on baryon transport mechanism

In the constituent quark model, each quark inside a baryon carries 1/3 unit of the baryon number. An alternative picture exists where the center of a Y-shaped topology of gluon fields, called the baryon junction, carries a unit baryon number. Studying baryon transport over a large rapidity gap (δy) in nuclear collisions provides a possible tool to distinguish these two pictures. A recent analysis of global data on net-proton yield at mid-rapidity in Au+Au collisions showed an exponential dependence on δy and the exponential slope does not vary with event centrality, favoring the baryon junction picture. Since junctions are flavor blind, hyperons – baryons containing valence strange quarks – are expected to exhibit a similar behavior as the proton. This study aims to test this prediction by analyzing hyperon yields in Au+Au collisions at various energies. We observe that net-hyperon yields, after correcting for the strangeness production suppression, adhere to the expected exponential form. The extracted slope parameters for net-Λ, net-$Ξ$ and net-Ω are consistent with each other and with those of net-proton within uncertainties, and exhibit no centrality dependence. Various implementations of the PYTHIA event generator, primarily based on valence quarks for baryon transport, are unable to simultaneously describe the slope parameters for all baryons.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing

Optoelectronic analogs of self-programming neural nets - Architecture and methodologies for implementing fast stochastic learning by simulated annealing

Self-organization and learning is a distinctive feature of neural nets and processors that sets them apart from conventional approaches to signal processing. It leads to self-programmability which alleviates the problem of programming complexity in artificial neural nets. In this paper architectures for partitioning an optoelectronic analog of a neural net into distinct layers with prescribed interconnectivity pattern to enable stochastic learning by simulated annealing in the context of a Boltzmann machine are presented. Stochastic learning is of interest because of its relevance to the role of noise in biological neural nets. Practical considerations and methodologies for appreciably accelerating stochastic learning in such a multilayered net are described. These include the use of parallel optical computing of the global energy of the net, the use of fast nonvolatile programmable spatial light modulators to realize fast plasticity, optical generation of random number arrays, and an adaptive noisy thresholding scheme that also makes stochastic learning more biologically plausible. The findings reported predict optoelectronic chips that can be used in the realization of optical learning machines.

Farhat, Nabil H.

No-net-rotation model of current plate velocities incorporating plate motion model NUVEL-1

NNR-NUVEL1 is presented which is a model of plate velocities relative to the unique reference frame defined by requiring no-net-rotation of the lithosphere while constraining relative plate velocities to equal those in global plate motion model NUVEL-1 (DeMets et al., 1990). In NNR-NUVEL1, the Pacific plate rotates in a right-handed sense relative to the no-net-rotation reference frame at 0.67 deg/m.y. about 63 deg S, 107 deg E. At Hawaii the Pacific plate moves relative to the no-net-rotation reference frame at 70 mm/yr, which is 25 mm/yr slower than the Pacific plate moves relative to the hotspots. Differences between NNR-NUVEL1 and HS2-NUVEL1 are described. The no-net-rotation reference frame differs significantly from the hotspot reference frame. If the difference between reference frames is caused by motion of the hotspots relative to a mean-mantle reference frame, then hotspots beneath the Pacific plate move with coherent motion towards the east-southeast. Alternatively, the difference between reference frames can show that the uniform drag, no-net-torque reference frame, which is kinematically equivalent to the no-net-rotation reference frame, is based on a dynamically incorrect premise.

Argus, Donald F.

TokenPasser: A petri net specification tool

In computer program design it is essential to know the effectiveness of different design options in improving performance, and dependability. This paper provides a description of a CAD tool for distributed hierarchical Petri nets. After a brief review of Petri nets, Petri net languages, and Petri net transducers, and descriptions of several current Petri net tools, the specifications and design of the TokenPasser tool are presented. TokenPasser is a tool to allow design of distributed hierarchical systems based on Petri nets. A case study for an intelligent robotic system is conducted, a coordination structure with one dispatcher controlling three coordinators is built to model a proposed robotic assembly system. The system is implemented using TokenPasser, and the results are analyzed to allow judgment of the tool.

Mittmann, Michael

Petri net controllers for distributed robotic systems

Petri nets are a well established modelling technique for analyzing parallel systems. When coupled with an event-driven operating system, Petri nets can provide an effective means for integrating and controlling the functions of distributed robotic applications. Recent work has shown that Petri net graphs can also serve as remarkably intuitive operator interfaces. In this paper, the advantages of using Petri nets as high-level controllers to coordinate robotic functions are outlined, the considerations for designing Petri net controllers are discussed, and simple Petri net structures for implementing an interface for operator supervision are presented. A detailed example is presented which illustrates these concepts for a sensor-based assembly application.

Lefebvre, D. R.

MPL-Net Measurements of Aerosol and Cloud Vertical Distributions at Co-Located AERONET Sites

In the early 1990s, the first small, eye-safe, and autonomous lidar system was developed, the Micropulse Lidar (MPL). The MPL acquires signal profiles of backscattered laser light from aerosols and clouds. The signals are analyzed to yield multiple layer heights, optical depths of each layer, average extinction-to-backscatter ratios for each layer, and profiles of extinction in each layer. In 2000, several MPL sites were organized into a coordinated network, called MPL-Net, by the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar Group at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) using funding provided by the NASA Earth Observing System. tn addition to the funding provided by NASA EOS, the NASA CERES Ground Validation Group supplied four MPL systems to the project, and the NASA TOMS group contributed their MPL for work at GSFC. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) also agreed to make their data available to the MPL-Net project for processing. In addition to the initial NASA and ARM operated sites, several other independent research groups have also expressed interest in joining the network using their own instruments. Finally, a limited amount of EOS funding was set aside to participate in various field experiments each year. The NASA Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project also provides funds to deploy their MPL during ocean research cruises. All together, the MPL-Net project has participated in four major field experiments since 2000. Most MPL-Net sites and field experiment locations are also co-located with sunphotometers in the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network. (AERONET). Therefore, at these locations data is collected on both aerosol and cloud vertical structure as well as column optical depth and sky radiance. Real-time data products are now available from most MPL-Net sites. Our real-time products are generated at times of AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements. The AERONET AOD is used as input to our processing routines, which calculate the aerosol layer top height and extinction profile, and our MPL calibration value. A variety of other data products are available or under development. We present an overview of the MPL-Net project and discuss data products useful to the AERONET community. Results from several sites and field experiments will be presented.

Welton, Ellsworth J.

The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based Model

We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).

Hirsch, A. I.

Software Tool Integrating Data Flow Diagrams and Petri Nets

Data Flow Diagram - Petri Net (DFPN) is a software tool for analyzing other software to be developed. The full name of this program reflects its design, which combines the benefit of data-flow diagrams (which are typically favored by software analysts) with the power and precision of Petri-net models, without requiring specialized Petri-net training. (A Petri net is a particular type of directed graph, a description of which would exceed the scope of this article.) DFPN assists a software analyst in drawing and specifying a data-flow diagram, then translates the diagram into a Petri net, then enables graphical tracing of execution paths through the Petri net for verification, by the end user, of the properties of the software to be developed. In comparison with prior means of verifying the properties of software to be developed, DFPN makes verification by the end user more nearly certain, thereby making it easier to identify and correct misconceptions earlier in the development process, when correction is less expensive. After the verification by the end user, DFPN generates a printable system specification in the form of descriptions of processes and data.

Thronesbery, Carroll