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At least 343 records · Page 19

Philadelphia Health & Air Quality: Assessing Land Surface Temperature, Vegetation Cover, and Compounding Vulnerability Factors to Identify High Priority Areas for Cooling Initiatives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the US, with heat-related hospitalizations increasing by 2-5% between 2001-2010. In Philadelphia alone, 137 heat-related deaths were recorded between 2010-2018, while a total of 18 daily temperature records have been set since 2010. Temperature is relatively higher in cities compared to rural areas, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect.This effect exaggerates daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime heat retention in urban areas, which increases heat exposure inurban environments and especially impacts vulnerable populations. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is determined by a combination of risk factors, such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and preexisting health conditions. This project supported the Philadelphia Department of Public Health and Office of Sustainability by identifying priority areas for cooling interventions, such as heat danger educational outreach and urban tree planting. The team developed heat vulnerability scores for each census tract within Philadelphia. Remotely sensed land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference built-up index, normalized difference water index, and albedo data were calculated from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor instruments. These variables were weighted against socioeconomic variables and preexisting health conditions using a principal component analysis. A total of 74 census tracts clustered were identified as high-risk areas for heat-related illnesses. 15 of these census tracts also had very low tree density (lower 20th percentile) and should be targeted for tree planting initiatives. The findings of this project will help target interventions to mitigate heat-related health issues and improve the overall wellness of Philadelphia residents.

Health & Air Quality↗

Measurements of Rainfall Rate, Drop Size Distribution, and Variability at Middle and Higher Latitudes: Application to the Combined DPR-GMI Algorithm

The Global Precipitation Measurement mission is a major U.S.–Japan joint mission to understand the physics of the Earth’s global precipitation as a key component of its weather, climate, and hydrological systems. The core satellite carries a dual-precipitation radar and an advanced microwave imager which provide measurements to retrieve the drop size distribution (DSD) and rain rates using a Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA). Our objective is to validate key assumptions and parameterizations in CORRA and enable improved estimation of precipitation products, especially in the middle-to-higher latitudes in both hemispheres. The DSD parameters and statistical relationships between DSD parameters and radar measurements are a central part of the rainfall retrieval algorithm, which is complicated by regimes where DSD measurements are abysmally sparse (over the open ocean). In view of this, we have assembled optical disdrometer datasets gathered by research vessels, ground stations, and aircrafts to simulate radar observables and validate the scattering lookup tables used in CORRA. The joint use of all DSD datasets spans a large range of drop concentrations and characteristic drop diameters. The scaling normalization of DSDs defines an intercept parameter N(W), which normalizes the concentrations, and a scaling diameter D(m), which compresses or stretches the diameter coordinate axis. A major finding of this study is that a single relationship between N(W) and D(m), on average, unifies all datasets included, from stratocumulus to heavier rainfall regimes. A comparison with the N(W)–D(m) relation used as a constraint in versions 6 and 7 of CORRA highlights the scope for improvement of rainfall retrievals for small drops (D(m) < 1 mm) and large drops (D(m) > 2 mm). The normalized specific attenuation–reflectivity relationships used in the combined algorithm are also found to match well the equivalent relationships derived using DSDs from the three datasets, suggesting that the currently assumed lookup tables are not a major source of uncertainty in the combined algorithm rainfall estimates.

Viswanathan Bringi↗

Philadelphia Health & Air Quality: Assessing Land Surface Temperature, Vegetation Cover, and Compounding Vulnerability Factors to Identify High Priority Areas for Cooling Initiatives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the US, with heat-related hospitalizations increasing by 2-5% between 2001-2010. In Philadelphia alone, 137 heat-related deaths were recorded between 2010-2018, while a total of 18 daily temperature records have been set since 2010. Temperature is relatively higher in cities compared to rural areas, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. This effect exaggerates daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime heat retention in urban areas, which increases heat exposure in urban environments and especially impacts vulnerable populations. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is determined by a combination of risk factors, such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and preexisting health conditions. This project supported the Philadelphia Department of Public Health and Office of Sustainability by identifying priority areas for cooling interventions, such as heat danger educational outreach and urban tree planting. The team developed heat vulnerability scores for each census tract within Philadelphia. Remotely sensed land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference built-up index, normalized difference water index, and albedo data were calculated from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor instruments. These variables were weighted against socioeconomic variables and preexisting health conditions using a principal component analysis. A total of 74 census tracts clustered were identified as high-risk areas for heat-related illnesses. 15 of these census tracts also had very low tree density (lower 20th percentile) and should be targeted for tree planting initiatives. The findings of this project will help target interventions to mitigate heat-related health issues and improve the overall wellness of Philadelphia residents.

Health & Air Quality↗

Fine-Scale Variability of Observed and Simulated Surface Albedo Over the Southern Great Plains

Surface albedo can be highly variable in both space and time. The Department of Energy’s Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field study provides a unique opportunity to characterize the variability over the Southern Great Plains of the United States using integrated tower, aircraft, and satellite observations of the surface albedo and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The primary advantage of the aircraft and satellite observations is the ability to examine the spatial distribution of surface albedo and NDVI over a large area, while the tower measurements have the ability to examine both diurnal and day-to-day variability at a single location. In general, consistency was found between both the broadband (BB) albedo and NDVI measured from the surface, air and space. There was a small increase from 0.186 to 0.194 in the aircraft BB surface albedo between May and September (about 4% change), while the MODIS black-sky BB surface albedo increased from 0.151 to 0.166 over the same period (about 10% change) while the standard deviations in the aircraft and MODIS BB albedo were similar. The largest seasonal differences in both the aircraft BB albedo and NDVI were found for areas with winter wheat or forest, while areas with pasture or grasses showed a smaller seasonal diversity. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate the BB surface albedo. In comparison with the aircraft and satellite observations, the WRF-simulated BB surface albedo had no seasonal change and a much narrower distribution.

Berg, Larry K.↗

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

Hydrological years 2006 (HY06, 10/2005-09/2006) and 2007 (HY07, 10/2006-09/2007) provide a unique opportunity to examine hydrological extremes in the central US because there are no other examples of two such highly contrasting precipitation extremes occurring in consecutive years at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in recorded history. The HY06 annual precipitation in the state of Oklahoma, as observed by the Oklahoma Mesonet, is around 61% of the normal (92.84 cm, based on the 1921-2008 climatology), which results in HY06 the second-driest year in the record. In particular, the total precipitation during the winter of 2005-06 is only 27% of the normal, and this winter ranks as the driest season. On the other hand, the HY07 annual precipitation amount is 121% of the normal and HY07 ranks as the seventh-wettest year for the entire state and the wettest year for the central region of the state. Summer 2007 is the second-wettest season for the state. Large-scale dynamics play a key role in these extreme events. During the extreme dry period (10/2005-02/2006), a dipole pattern in the 500-hPa GH anomaly existed where an anomalous high was over the southwestern U.S. region and an anomalous low was over the Great Lakes. This pattern is associated with inhibited moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and strong sinking motion over the SGP, both contributing to the extreme dryness. The precipitation deficit over the SGP during the extreme dry period is clearly linked to significantly suppressed cyclonic activity over the southwestern U.S., which shows robust relationship with the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The precipitation events during the extreme wet period (May-July 2007) were initially generated by active synoptic weather patterns, linked with moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico by the northward low level jet, and enhanced by the mesoscale convective systems. Although the drought and pluvial conditions are dominated by large-scale dynamic patterns, we have demonstrated that the two positive feedback processes during the extreme dry and wet periods found in this study play a key role to maintain and reinforce the length and severity of existing drought and flood events. For example, during the extreme dry period, with less clouds, LWP, PWV, precipitation, and thinner Cu cloud thickness, more net radiation was absorbed and used to evaporate water from the ground. The evaporated moisture, however, was removed by low-level divergence. Thus, with less precipitation and removed atmospheric moisture, more absorbed incoming solar radiation was used to increase surface temperature and to make the ground drier.

Dong, Xiquan↗

Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-Impacting CMEs

Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME's magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME's position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME's position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

Kay, C.↗

Density scaling approximation for Monte-Carlo simulations of radioactive plumes

The release of radioactive gas into the atmosphere can diffuse into large volumes of air downwind from the point of release. The extent of radioactivity can cover thousands of cubic meters of air. For such large volumes, the weather models used to predict the down-wind distribution of the plume and the radiation transport models used to predict the radiation reaching ground-level from the plume can take tens of hours of computer time on multi-node institutional High-Performance Computing facilities. In this paper we focus on the radiation transport aspect of plume modeling. Here, we describe a phenomenological method for approximating the amounts of radiation that reach ground level from large volumes of a static radioactive plume that can be calculated on a stand-alone personal computer in much shorter computation times than those usually needed for such large volume evaluations. We refer to this method as the Density Scaling Approximation (DSA). Its ability to approximate ground-level count rates of large plumes comes from using a small-plume volume with a scaled-up value of air density to simulate the same number of scatterings that occur during transport in larger plume volumes at normal air density. We demonstrate the DSA by using a 100 m-diameter air-filled hemispherical dome geometry with a uniform volumetric activity of 135 Xe gas throughout the air-filled volume. The DSA for a larger dome diameter is obtained by evaluating the 100 m dome with an air density scaled up by the linear ratio of the larger diameter to the 100 m diameter. We find that this approximation works well for dome diameters up to 1200 m – the largest diameter studied and a size more than sufficient for accounting for all the radiation from 135 Xe. Moreover, most of our DSA results can be calculated over 500 times faster than corresponding full-sized geometry with normal air density. To help evaluate the accuracy of the DSA and gain insight into how well it can reproduce different regions of the spectra, we use three, easily understood regions of interest to compare the DSA results to the full-sized geometry at normal air density results. These regions are the full-energy peak, the region of single-Compton scattering, and the region of multiple-Compton scattering. We show how the dominance of the Compton scattering mechanism determines this division and thus provides insight into how Compton scattering is manifested in spectra from photon scattering through air in general, and how well the DSA approximation works.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Tethys Water Demand Data

U.S. water demand varies sharply by sector and region as land use, population, weather patterns, and economic activity co-evolve. High-resolution water demand data is required to capture these dynamics, support integrated energy-water-land modeling, and local-to-regional water scarcity assessments. This dataset contains gridded (1/8 degree), monthly, multi-sector water demand dataset for the contiguous United States (CONUS) covering 1980-2100 across eight future scenarios of human-Earth system change. The dataset covers irrigation, thermoelectric, municipal (public-supply and domestic), livestock, manufacturing, and mining demands, separately for withdrawals and consumption, and includes per-cell renewable vs. non-renewable water source attributions. The dataset is validated against the latest USGS 2010-2020 water-use data for the three largest water demand sectors (Domestic, Electricity, and Irrigation), with correlations ranging from 0.73-0.95 at the HUC6 scale. The two datasets largely agree on an aggregate basis with per-sector bias falling within +/-7%, but they disagree on the spatial allocation of water with individual HUC6 basins having normalized RMSE from 68-171% and median absolute percent difference from 37-86%. This dataset advances prior global products by combining state-resolved sectoral demands from GCAM-USA, future power-plant siting from the CERF model, and scenario-consistent high-resolution climate and population forcing data across the eight scenarios.

GCAM-USA↗

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Computing Proximity to Threat Along Uncertain Trajectory to Support Urban Air Mobility

Many airspace threats affect the selection of a flight route, such as terrain, physical obstacles, adverse weather, and special-use airspace, among others. Threat avoidance during Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and Low Altitude Mobility (LAM) flights is especially challenging due to their lower cruising altitudes. These operations may be exposed to buildings, towers, trees, terrain undulations, etc., along much of their flight route. Moreover, these low-altitude flights in urban environments are expected to encounter very busy airspace, increasing the workload associated with threat avoidance. The Proximity to Threat (PtT) function aims to support onboard or remote pilots by computing the risk from geospatial threats in the airspace along an aircraft’s flight path. The threats are both static entities and dynamic airspace restrictions that have been modeled and stored in geo-referenced mapping databases. The flight path may be specified by waypoints, airways, or similar discrete route elements or by a time series of closely spaced position and altitude points. Flight path uncertainty can also be taken into account by assuming both the position and altitude to be sampled from two normal distributions, each being specified by a mean and variance. PtT uses this additional information to verify that the flight path remains clear of threats along a wider path or if a position is reached earlier or later than anticipated, assuring the pilot or operator that there will be an available safety margin even if the aircraft deviates due to one or more occurrences of unexpected wind gusts, mechanical failures, airspeed changes, collision avoidance maneuvers, etc. The client can specify an uncertainty confidence level to bound the set of trajectories evaluated for threats so that the confidence level corresponds to the client’s risk tolerance under the expected conditions. PtT can be used as a pre-flight planning tool to determine a safe route through known threats and in-flight to avoid emerging or changing threats. In this report, we present the PtT function, discuss how the trajectory uncertainty is incorporated into the PtT function, and describe the use of this PtT function in a representative scenario.

urban air mobility↗

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Delimitation of terrestrial impact craters by way of pseudotachylytic rock distribution

The determination of the shape and size of terrestrial impact craters is problematic, yet is critical to understanding cratering mechanics and for scaling bolide mass, volume, and impact velocity with crater size and target response. The problem is particularly difficult in older geological terrains (e.g. Precambrian) which are more likely to have suffered post-impact deformation and hence distortion of the original structure and/or where weathering may have partly removed or obscured its original shape. Traditionally, a number of features are used to assist us in determining the shape and size of an impact structure. These include the following: (1) the occurrence of faults, especially those disposed concentrically relative to the crater--the outermost ring faults being interpreted as indicating a viable minimum diameter; and (2) the development of so-called breccias, some of which are also associated with faults (e.g. the Sudbury Breccia developed within the target rocks of the Sudbury Structure of Onta rio, Canada). 'Breccia' is not a satisfactory term because a number of breccia-types exist at impact sites (e.g. fall-back breccias and in-situ brecciated target material). Of relevance to crater diameter determination is the recognition of discrete zones and fault- and shock-related pseudotachylyte. Pseudotachylyte is a rock type comprising a fine-grained, usually dark matrix containing clasts of minerals and/or rock derived from the country rock target material. It origin is normally attributed to high-speed slip (including vibration) along a slip surface (i.e. fault) or to the passage of a shock wave through the host material. The clasts can occur as angular fragments (i.e. like a breccia), but are more commonly developed as rounded to sub-rounded fragments. Significantly, the scale of these pseudotachylytes can range from sub-millimeter thick veinlets to dyke-like bodies up to 1 km or more thick. It is the latter, larger occurrence which has been referred to as 'breccia.' The smaller-sized occurrence is generally not recognized in the field, nor is it traditionally associated with its larger counterpart.

Spray, John G.↗

Online Access to Weather Satellite Imagery Through the World Wide Web

Both global area coverage (GAC) and high-resolution picture transmission (HRTP) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) are made available to laternet users through an online data access system. Older GOES-7 data am also available. Created as a "testbed" data system for NASA's future Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), this testbed provides an opportunity to test both the technical requirements of an onune'd;ta system and the different ways in which the -general user, community would employ such a system. Initiated in December 1991, the basic data system experienced five major evolutionary changes In response to user requests and requirements. Features added with these changes were the addition of online browse, user subsetting, dynamic image Processing/navigation, a stand-alone data storage system, and movement,from an X-windows graphical user Interface (GUI) to a World Wide Web (WWW) interface. Over Its lifetime, the system has had as many as 2500 registered users. The system on the WWW has had over 2500 hits since October 1995. Many of these hits are by casual users that only take the GIF images directly from the interface screens and do not specifically order digital data. Still, there b a consistent stream of users ordering the navigated image data and related products (maps and so forth). We have recently added a real-time, seven- day, northwestern United States normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composite that has generated considerable Interest. Index Terms-Data system, earth science, online access, satellite data.

Emery, W.↗

Kentucky Disasters: Multi-Hazard Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility and Vulnerability in Kentucky

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in Kentucky, with major flood events in 2022 and 2023 highlighting the need for flood risk assessment. In partnership with the National Weather Service Jackson and Paducah Forecast Offices and the Kentucky Climate Center, we mapped flood risk in Kentucky using a multi-hazard approach that considered two dimensions of risk: flood susceptibility based on a weighted combination of seven physical factors and flood vulnerability based on 13 socioeconomic and infrastructure factors. We additionally analyzed NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations of surface soil moisture to explore the utility of SMAP observations for future analysis of flood risk. By analyzing flood susceptibility, we found that with equal rainfall, western Kentucky generally displays a higher propensity to flood than eastern Kentucky. In contrast, our flood vulnerability analysis indicated that more vulnerable areas were generally concentrated in the eastern part of the state. Through a combined perspective, our flood risk analysis identified much of the state as having moderate degrees of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. Our parallel analysis of antecedent soil moisture found that SMAP soil moisture levels were variable in the months leading up to each flood event but were drier than normal in the month prior to the 2023 event, as shown by negative soil moisture anomalies. These results were limited by challenges with weighting input parameters and a lack of validation but overall demonstrate the feasibility of using GIS and Earth observations for mapping flood risk and soil moisture.

analytic hierarchy process↗

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) Overview

This paper is an overview of the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) project, giving some history on the project, various applications of the atmospheric data, and future ideas and plans. As part of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program, the TAMDAR project developed a small low-cost sensor that collects useful meteorological data and makes them available in near real time to improve weather forecasts. This activity has been a joint effort with FAA, NOAA, universities, and industry. A tri-agency team collaborated by developing a concept of operations, determining the sensor specifications, and evaluating sensor performance as reported by Moosakhanian et. al. (2006). Under contract with Georgia Tech Research Institute, NASA worked with AirDat of Raleigh, NC to develop the sensor. The sensor is capable of measuring temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and icing. It can compute pressure altitude, indicated and true air speed, ice accretion rate, wind speed and direction, peak and average turbulence, and eddy dissipation rate. The overall development process, sensor capabilities, and performance based on ground and flight tests is reported by Daniels (2002), Daniels et. al. (2004) and by Tsoucalas et. al. (2006). An in-service evaluation of the sensor was performed called the Great Lakes Fleet Experiment (GLFE), first reported by Moninger et. al. (2004) and Mamrosh et. al. (2005). In this experiment, a Mesaba Airlines fleet was equipped to collect meteorological data over the Great Lakes region during normal revenue-producing flights.

Daniels, Taumi S.↗

The good, the bad, and the ugly: Data-driven load profile discord identification in a large building portfolio

Reducing the overall energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector is essential for meeting our future sustainability goals. Recently, smart energy metering facilities have been deployed to enable monitoring of energy consumption data with hourly or subhourly temporal resolution. This unprecedented data collection has created various opportunities for advanced data analytics involving load profiles (e.g., building energy benchmarking programs, building-to-grid integration, and calibration of urban-scale energy models). These applications often need preprocessing steps to detect daily load profile discords, such as: 1) outliers due to system malfunctions (the bad) and 2) irregular energy consumption patterns, such as those resulting from holidays (the ugly) compared to normal consumption patterns (the good). However, current preprocessing methods predominantly focus on filtering using statistical threshold values, which fail to capture the contextual discords of daily profiles. In addition, discord detection algorithms in building research are often aimed at finding individual building-level discords, which are not suitable at a large scale. Thus, here, we develop a method for automated load profile discord identification (ALDI) in a large portfolio of buildings (more than 100 buildings). Specifically, ALDI 1) uses the matrix profile (MP) method to quantify the similarities of daily subsequences in time series meter data, 2) compares daily MP values with typical-day MP distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and 3) identifies daily load profile discords in a large building portfolio. We evaluate ALDI using the metering data of both an academic campus and a residential neighborhood. Our results demonstrate that ALDI efficiently discovers measurement errors by system malfunctions and low energy consumption days in the academic campus portfolio, and it detects unique load shape patterns likely driven by occupant behavior and extreme weather conditions in the residential neighborhood.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Chemical Reactivity of In-Situ Lunar Dust for Biotoxicity Assessment

Introduction: How does the chemical reactivity of in-situ lunar dust compare to Apollo samples currently stored in curation facilities here on Earth? Essential investigations of this question will help us to further mitigate exploration risks for future human explorers on the Moon and will also provide critical information for astrobiologists and space biologists using the Moon for scientific inquiry. Discussion: Apollo 14 dust biotoxicity studies, carried out by the NASA Lunar Airborne Dust Toxici-ty Assessment Group (LADTAG), included numerous physiochemical studies[1] and cellular and animal ex-periments. Intratracheal instillation [2] and inhalation studies [3] in rats both showed Apollo 14 dust to be intermediate in toxicity compared to low-tox titanium dusts and high-tox quartz dusts of similar particle siz-es. The collective results were used in models [4] to establish a safe exposure limit for astronauts [5]. Alt-hough LADTAG took extensive steps to preserve what chemical reactivity may still have existed in the sam-ples, it is simply unknown if they possessed true in-situ chemical reactivity or if that reactivity has de-cayed. Initial gas loss on collection and other altera-tions, and even intermittent exposure to Earth-normal conditions during subsequent decades of handling, obscure a forensic reconstruction of the initial state. Because a mineral dust’s chemical reactivity influ-ences its biotoxicity [6], researchers have developed methods to “activate” lunar dust and simulants [7][8]. Past studies that modeled impact processes and radia-tion [9] in the lunar environment suggest that in-situ lunar dust is likely to be more chemically reactive than Earth-exposed samples. Because of these results, in-situ measurements are warranted [10]. Other studies have examined the hydroxyl generating capability of iron bearing mineral phases [11][12] and further em-phasize the role iron plays in chemical reactivity of lunar material, as well as decay of chemical reactivity in mineral dusts [12]. Recent observations of the lunar surface reveal the presence of hematite [13], a finding that further supports the hypothesis that in-situ lunar dust is reactive. Since the lunar surface is heterogene-ous, dust biotoxicity is expected to vary from site to site [14] due to particle size, mineralogy, physical characteristics, degree of space weathering, and chemi-cal reactivity (Figure 1). This circumstance dictates dust assessments at a suite of lunar sites enabled by upcoming NASA and commercial lunar payload ser-vices (CLPS) opportunities. Dose, location, and dura-tion of particle exposure will also affect biological responses. In-situ chemical reactivity measurements can inform cross-cutting collaborative research cam-paigns such as astrobiology studies examining regolith interactions with organisms and its ability to preserve chemical and structural biomarkers, as well as space biology investigations that examine regolith-microbe interactions relating to life support systems, plant growth, biomining, and development of regolith bio-composites. Figure 1: Environment conditions on the lunar surface that may alter regolith reactivity. Summary A series of in-situ measurements of lu-nar dust free radical chemistry at future Artemis and CLPS landing sites, combined with LADTAG-like studies of freshly collected lunar dust specimens, will reveal the true chemical reactivity of in-situ lunar dust and generate scientific data that can be compared to the chemical reactivity and biotoxicity of samples from Apollo landing sites. Furthermore, results from in situ measurements and biotoxicity studies of freshly col-lected specimens can also be used to validate, or re-quire revision of, the current astronaut permissible exposure limit [15]. References: [1] McKay D et al (2015), Acta As-tronaut 107:163–176. [2] Rask J et al (2013), LPSC, p 3062. [3] Lam CW et al (2013), Inhal Toxicol 25:661–678. [4] James JT, et. al. (2013) , Inhal Toxicol 25:243–256. [5] Scully RR, et.al. (2013), Inhal Toxi-col 25:785–793. [6] Porter, D. W., et.al., (2002), Tox-icology 175, 63–71. [7] Wallace WT, et.al., (2009), Meteorit Planet Sci 44:961–970. [8] Wallace WT, et.al., (2010), Earth Planet Sci Lett 295:571–577. [9] Loftus D, Rask J, et.al., (2010), Earth Moon Planet 107:95–105. [10] Rask J, et.al., (2009) LEAG p 57. [11] Turci F, et.a., (2015), Astrobiology. 2015;15(5):371-380. [12] Hendrix DA, et.al., (2019), Geohealth. 2019;3(1):28-42. [13] Li, S., et.al., (2020), Science advances, 6(36), p.eaba1940. [14] Rask J. (2018), In: Cudnik B. (eds) Encyclopedia of Lunar Science. Springer, Cham. [15] Rask, J, (2020), LPI, Artemis III Sci. def. paper 2120.

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