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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Resilience-Oriented Assessment Approach for Transmission Networks Under Wildfires

The rising threat of wildfires poses significant challenges to power transmission networks, particularly in areas prone to such disasters. Traditional approaches for wildfire risk assessment neglect some potential wildfire scenarios. Here, this paper introduces a probabilistic resilience-oriented assessment approach for power transmission networks to address this gap. Initially, a probabilistic wildfire model is developed to capture uncertainties in ignition, intensity, and fire spread. Next, a spatiotemporal fragility model is constructed to assess the impact of wildfires on transmission corridors, incorporating Thermal Aging (TA) and Dynamic Thermal Rate (DTR) change. Finally, a comprehensive resilience metric is defined to evaluate system performance, leveraging the fragility model to determine component and system-level resilience. The approach employs a combinatorial enumeration method to generate potential wildfire scenarios, enhanced by an impact-increment-based state enumeration (IISE) method for computational efficiency. The proposed method provides critical insights for identifying system vulnerabilities and developing robust strategies to protect transmission networks from wildfires. The efficacy of this approach is validated through extensive scenarios of the RTS-GMLC system across Southern California, Nevada and Arizona.

Vahedi, Soroush [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Cyber Situational Understanding

Effective cybersecurity operations require the ability to analyze large amounts of information to assess security risks and formulate defensive strategies against adversaries. This has become more complex in recent years as the sprawl and interconnectivity of devices grows through implementation of virtualization, cloud computing, and Internet of Things (IoT). The amount of data and analysis required for effective cybersecurity command and control decisions far exceeds humans’ capacity to perform manually. We characterize the analysis problem as cyber situational understanding. The research presented to improve cyber situational understanding focuses on vulnerability analysis and threat intelligence. Regarding vulnerabilities, entities must analyze and plan work for between thousands and tens of thousands of software vulnerabilities annually. Entities heavily use network firewalls to limit vulnerability exposure. As a result, some of these vulnerabilities permit exposure to adversarial exploitation, whereas others are inaccessible and therefore present negligible risk of exploitation. Distinguishing between high and low risk software vulnerabilities requires a deep understanding of the vulnerability, network firewall protection, and characteristics of the targeted device. This problem is solved by extracting network service features from vulnerability data features using both machine-learning and natural language processing. Then, the network firewall topology is parsed to determine which vulnerabilities are reachable by adversaries. Ultimately, a state-based safety analysis ascertains which vulnerabilities are unsafe. A related vulnerability analysis problem occurs in cybersecurity operations when associating an entity’s hardware and software assets to public vulnerability databases. Assets often reveal hardware and software through installation artifacts and network service identification, and entities store these artifacts in inventory databases. However, software and hardware vendors apply a standard Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) naming convention when publicly reporting vulnerabilities. Associating these two datasets often requires many hours to days of manual inspection. The proposed solution automates the mapping approach of human analysts using fuzzy matching techniques, natural language processing, and, ultimately, machine learning to present a small set of recommendations for mapping the two datasets. The result significantly reduces human analysis time and reduces the occurrence of false positives in vulnerability notifications. Finally, cyber threat intelligence (CTI) requires associating cyber observable artifacts, such as IP addresses, URIs, and file hashes, with cyber threat tactics, techniques, and procedures. Unfortunately, most CTI data is compartmentalized across multiple organizations and cannot be shared due to the legal and reputational risk with cyber threat being associated with the entity. The approach to solving this problem inovlves using a distributed ledger with anonymous token spending and authentication. This allows a consortium of semi-trusted entities to share the workload of curating CTI for a threat sharing community’s cooperative benefit.

Huff, Philip↗
DOE OSTI2022

Protection and restoration of coastal habitats yield multiple benefits for urban residents as sea levels rise

Globally, rising seas threaten massive numbers of people and significant infrastructure. Adaptation strategies increasingly incorporate nature-based solutions. New science can illuminate where these solutions are appropriate in urban environments and what benefits they provide to people. Together with stakeholders in San Mateo County, California, USA, we co-developed nature-based solutions to support adaptation planning. We created six guiding principles to shape planning, summarized vulnerability to sea-level rise and opportunities for nature-based solutions, created three adaptation scenarios, and compared multiple benefits provided by each scenario. Adaptation scenarios that included investments in nature-based solutions deliver up to eight times the benefits of a traditionally engineered baseline as well as additional habitat for key species. The magnitude and distribution of benefits varied at subregional scales along the coastline. Our results demonstrate practical tools and engagement approaches to assessing the multiple benefits of nature-based solutions in an urban estuary that can be replicated in other regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Global Ocean Circulation Sensitivity to Changes in Antarctic Ice Discharge

The principal goal of this research is to assess how projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will impact climate in the next 250 years. In short, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges to the Southern Ocean are poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse through marine-ice-sheet-instability (MISI) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years, with such a collapse associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project uses a combination of an ice sheet/shelf model and a fully coupled (ocean-atmosphere-seaice) model (CESM 1.2) to explore the sensitive of global climate to future changes in runoff from the Antarctic continent under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5. Overall, accounting for Antarctic meltwater reduces the projected global mean anthropogenic greenhouse warming by up to 2 deg C. during peak WAIS collapse and by ~1 deg. for most of the simulation. In addition, the increased meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures at the Antarctic ice sheet margin by more than 1ºC, such that the ice shelf basal melt rates increase beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the model predicts a strong cooling of both the surface air and ocean temperatures over the Southern Ocean that results in a massive expansion and thickening of the perennial sea-ice. The slow-down in anthropogenic warming also results in the onset of ice-free conditions in the Arctic being delayed in the model by several decades, and the projected slowdown in the AMOC to reduce.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Resilience of Large Power Transformer Bushings & Non-SF6 Industrial Base Scan Review

Large (high voltage) power transformers (LPT), and more specifically, their bushings, are known to be susceptible to seismic failure. With bushing failure, a transformer will have to be replaced, which has a considerable lead time, adding to the power outage duration. Cost-efficient, proven solutions are not currently available to mitigate this risk, which can persist for the more than 30-year life of a particular transformer. This work will focus on developing and demonstrating a hardware solution to address seismic vulnerabilities and reduce outage risks from LPT failure. Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF6, alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF6, at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. An industry scan was performed to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF6-free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Redshift drift cosmography with ELT and SKAO measurements

ABSTRACT Mapping the expansion history of the universe is a compelling task of physical cosmology, especially in the context of the observational evidence for the recent acceleration of the universe, which demonstrates that canonical theories of cosmology and particle physics are incomplete and that there is new physics still to be discovered. Cosmography is a phenomenological approach to cosmology, where (with some caveats) physical quantities are expanded as a Taylor series in the cosmological redshift z, or analogous parameters such as the rescaled redshift y = z/(1 + z) or the logarithmic redshift x = ln (1 + z). Moreover, the redshift drift of objects following cosmological expansion provides a model-independent observable, detectable by facilities currently under construction, viz. the Extremely Large Telescope and the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (at least in its full configuration). Here, we use simulated redshift drift measurements from the two facilities to carry out an assessment of the cosmological impact and model discriminating power of redshift drift cosmography. We find that the combination of measurements from the two facilities can provide a stringent test of the Λ cold dark matter paradigm, and that overall the logarithmic-based expansions of the spectroscopic velocity drift are the most reliable ones, performing better than analogous expansions in the redshift or the rescaled redshift: the former nominally gives the smaller error bars for the cosmographic coefficients but is vulnerable to biases in the higher order terms (in other words, it is only reliable at low redshifts), while the latter always performs poorly.

Rocha, B. A. R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Q-Learning-Based Impact Assessment of Propagating Extreme Weather on Distribution Grids

The increasing number of power outage events due to extreme weather conditions is hampering us socioeconomically. Preparing in advance for the extreme weather event is critical. It can help utility operators to reduce grid damages, restore grid service quickly, allocate energy resources and repair crews strategically, and hence dramatically increase grid resilience. In this paper, we propose a method to identify the sequence of worst impact zones in the power grid caused by extreme weather events based on Q-learning (a reinforcement learning algorithm). To quantity the weather severity and its effect on the grid, we model the impact of extreme weather on the grid as a function of intensity, vulnerability, and exposure. A modified IEEE 123-node distribution feeder is presented in a mesh grid and experimented for sequences of zones identification. Finally, simulation results present the identified sequences and their associated impacts on the grid caused by extreme weather events.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2021

Q-Learning Based Impact Assessment of Propagating Extreme Weather on Distribution Grids: Preprint

Increasing number of power outage events due to extreme weather condition is hampering us socioeconomically. Preparing in advance for the extreme weather event is critical and can help utility operators to reduce grid damages, restore grid service quickly, allocate energy resources and repair crews strategically, and hence dramatically increase grid resilience. In this paper, we propose a method to identify the sequence of worst impact zones in the power grid caused by extreme weather events based on Q-learning (a reinforcement learning algorithm). To quantify weather severity and it’s effect on the grid, we model the impact of extreme weather on the grid as a function of intensity, vulnerability and exposure. A modified IEEE 123-node distribution feeder is presented in a mesh grid and experimented for sequences of zones identification. Finally, simulation results present the identified sequences and their associated impacts on the grid caused by the extreme weather events.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical Resilience Navigator

The Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) is a systematic approach to identifying vulnerabilities with energy and water systems, and prioritizing solutions that reduce risk. The ultimate outcome of the TRN is a set of actionable resilience solutions that address the site's most important gaps in resilience and enhance the ability to maintain mission continuity. The TRN is designed to step users through this planning process, providing a framework to: assign roles and responsibilities; collect and document information and data; document key inputs and outputs for each of the TRN modules (Site Level Planning, Baseline Development, Risk Assessment, Solution Development, and Solution Prioritization); document prioritized list of resilience solutions; and track progress through the entire process. Currently "software as a service" at the listed website.

Rotondo, Julia↗
DOE OSTI2025

CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs. The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities. This input was then collated and translated into CMIP7 standard templates for inclusion in the broader data request, leading to 13 I&A data request opportunities, 60 variable groups and 539 unique variables sought by vulnerability, impacts, adaptation, and climate services user communities. Here, we describe these opportunities and variable groups, as well as new insights into how ESM groups can prioritize outputs that set off a chain of further analyses, ultimately informing decisions impacting society and natural systems. These include an emphasis on high-resolution outputs to allow further modeling of climate impacts at regional and local scales, improved representation of extreme weather events, enhanced accuracy of downscaling and bias-adjustment techniques, and support for more detailed assessments for decision-making in adaptation and mitigation strategies. There is also broad interest in more extensive provisioning of two-dimensional variables at the Earth's surface, prioritizing experiments that enhance our understanding of both the recent past and future scenarios, and providing outputs that allow further downscaling and bias adjustment. We emphasize that variable groups are the fundamental level at which to engage with the I&A data request, matching the scale of input and the way output provision enables specific I&A applications. Given resource constraints, we applaud CMIP7 efforts to foster strong engagement and communication between ESM groups and the I&A team to build consensus around prudent compromises in priority variables, temporal resolutions, simulation experiments, time subsets, and ensemble members.

Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cybersecurity Assessment in DER-rich Distribution Operations: Criticality Levels and Impact Analysis

The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution networks has become a pivotal strategy for achieving decarbonization, enhancing grid resilience, and optimizing grid efficiency. Remote monitoring and control op- erations of such resources rely on a network of sensors and communication infrastructure, exposing the system to potential cyber threats. Therefore, as the deployment of DERs increases, ensuring secure monitoring and control becomes an imperative challenge. This paper utilizes real-time feeder models, which are instrumental in developing cybersecurity testbeds tailored for hardware-in-loop (HIL) systems. These models enable users to simulate cyber attacks in a real-world environment and analyze the power distribution operations during vulnerabilities. Furthermore, we discuss several practical sets of grid parameters to identify critical levels of DERs and evaluate various scenarios that simulate cyber threats on sensitive DERs. The modified IEEE 123-bus model is used as the test case for demonstrating the proposed scenarios. The findings from this study provide valuable insights into the vulnerabilities and potential consequences of cyber attacks on DERs, allowing for better mitigation strategies and improved cyber resilience in future distribution networks.

Maharjan, Manisha↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the Determinants of Household Capabilities Burden During Power Outages: The Case of Winter Storm Uri

Existing research primarily uses census data to identify the vulnerability of communities to hazards. These vulnerability indices provide aggregated data and are not hazard-specific nor well-validated with post-event data. In contrast, our study uses household survey data (n=1065) to understand which Texan households suffered the greatest loss of their capabilities due to power outages and other utility service disruptions during Winter Storm Uri. Inspired by the Capabilities Approach, our measures of burden include the number of household capability types disrupted during the outages (e.g., cooking, heating, refrigeration), the severity of impact for each disrupted capability, and the additional time and financial costs of coping with these disruptions. We perform a clustering analysis, and find two distinct groups in our data, consisting of ‘lesser burden' and ‘heavier burden' households. Results indicate that the households experiencing the heaviest capabilities burden were most likely to experience longer power outages and the loss of water services. They were also more likely to have a Hispanic-Latino household member, lack access to a generator, live in a rented home, have larger households with more young children, fewer adults over 65, lower household incomes, been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and more family characteristics that made life harder. We also fit a logistic regression model to assess the role of outage, household, and community characteristics in predicting differences in capabilities burden. Our results offer insights into enumerating the consequences of utility service disruptions on households, which can inform more targeted and equitable resilience strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building a framework to genetically characterize “feather spots” and understand demographic impacts of solar energy sites on migratory bird populations

The lack of data on the impact of utility-scale solar facilities on avian species and populations adds to the cost of siting and operation. As much as 32 percent of the avian biological material (feathers and carcasses) recovered from solar facilities remain unidentified, because they often take the form of “feather spots”. Feather spots are remains of impacted animals that can be separated into two broad categories: 1) those remains that may be visually identified to a species, or 2) those that cannot be visually identified to a species due to degradation from the environment and/or scavenger activity (listed as “unknown”). Even when feather spots can be identified to species, they cannot be visually assigned to particular breeding populations. In some cases, it is unknown whether multiple feather spots represent single or multiple individuals. This project’s objectives were to: 1. Use a developed, genetic-based technique to identify and determine the species, population of origin, and number of individuals found in feather spots recovered from solar facilities. 2. Implement collected data and resulting analyses to develop a publicly accessible web-based decision-making tool that can be used by the solar industry, regulators and other stakeholders to inform siting, mitigation, and conservation management efforts. 3. Establish a not-for-profit fee-for-service center at UCLA to ensure collection and identification of feather spots continue after the project period of performance. During the Project Period, we proposed to establish a pipeline for collecting, transporting, and storing of avian biological material collected at solar facilities and the collection and identification of feather spots to species and individual. We proposed the development of a genetic-based framework that would recover viable DNA from feather spots, amplify this DNA (i.e., make millions of copies of the original DNA), and use it to match the resulting sequences to a national database of known species of birds. The result would be the identification of feathers spots that were previously unidentified, and the incorporation of these samples into a larger database that included all samples recovered from solar facilities. The resulting report (below) details the result of this work and its alignment with proposed activities. We proposed the use of the data collected to assess the comparative risk to specific species or populations of species from solar facilities. For some species, we have already identified genomic markers of specific breeding populations and developed “genoscapes,” maps of unique genetic variation across the full breeding range of a species. We used these (previously and newly developed) genoscapes to probabilistically link a feather spot to the specific breeding populations from which it originated (assignment probabilities range from 75%-100% depending on species and population groups). For those species without genoscapes, we developed a vulnerability and susceptibility estimate that determines the relative local and regional risk to populations that are in geographic proximity to solar facilities, using citizen science data (Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and eBird). These two feather spot processing pipelines (see Figure 1 below) provide quantitative estimates as to the numbers of individuals from a given population of origin that are affected by solar facilities, and ultimately can reduce costs to the consumer by reducing the industry costs associated with mitigation and siting strategies for future solar energy development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible by-Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors

Next-generation advanced reactors (ARs) incorporate enhanced safety systems, have smaller source terms, and feature compact modular designs, which should lessen their collective risk profiles. However, to fully evaluate risk, security needs to be a part of the equation. Without taking security into consideration, safety systems and components in the new ARs may be vulnerable to sabotage. These base attributes, coupled with enhanced security features specific to AR design through sound engineering and security-by-design (SeBD), should provide developers and operators with lower inherent security risk profiles. Building security early into the AR design may remove or passively secure potential critical targets from an adversary’s reach , thereby increasing overall safety and security. An integrated approach and diverse design team that includes engineering, operations, and security experts are fundamental to building security into the design without sacrificing fundamental operational efficiencies and principles. The objective of this project was to evaluate the security and safety interfaces for five classes of reactors, identify potential security vulnerabilities of structures, systems, and components (SSC), and underscore the need to consider security alongside safety in the design o f these concepts. The five reactor classes evaluated in this project and presented in this report are molten-salt reactors (MSR), high temperature gas reactors (HTGR), sodium-fast reactors (SFR), advanced light-water reactors (ALWR), and microreactors. These designs were selected because they reflect the concepts that are closest to market deployment and have received significant resource investments from the public and private sector. This project assesses the inherent security risks posed by common classes of ARs, provides a methodology and framework to assess security along with safety, and offers an analysis of potential mitigation strategies that could be incorporated. For each AR technology, the SSCs that relate to radionuclide source safety functions are discussed to understand the SSC contribution to safety and relative importance in the protective strategy for the design. The assumptions that went into evaluating each reactor concept originated from generic publicly available nonproprietary information and should not directly be used to qualify an absolute risk profile nor to rank specific AR designs. Instead, the purpose of the analysis is to understand and compare the generic inherent security risks of different AR technologies.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle cost-benefit analysis of a novel self-heating pavement made from coal-derived solid carbon

Winter weather events challenge the safety, efficiency, and sustainability of roadway networks, particularly road bridges vulnerable to climate impacts. Although effective, conventional de-icing methods incur high expenses and cause significant environmental contamination. To address these longstanding issues, a low-cost novel coal-derived carbon enabled smart pavement (CDC-SP) de-icing system was developed, aiming to alleviate traffic delays, severe corrosion, compromised safety, and environmental pollution. However, the economic performance of CDC-SP has not been quantified to guide decision-making. To this end, this paper presents a Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis (LCCBA) to assess the economic feasibility of the CDC-SP de-icing system for road bridges in five representative urban and rural areas across cool humid and cold humid climate zones. Given the variations and uncertainties of several factors that determine the costs and benefits, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the system’s economic reliability. Additionally, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to quantify the impacts of important factors and identify the most beneficial scenarios. Furthermore, the CDC-SP de-icing systems have demonstrated substantial economic benefits and short payback periods, showing great applicability for rural and urban road bridges with different service levels across multiple climate zones as compared to conventional de-icing methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact Analysis of Data Integrity Attacks on FACTS-based Wide-Area Voltage Control System

Energy management system (EMS) consists of several wide-area control applications that serve as a backbone for security, stability, and reliability of the power system. Wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), one of the critical wide-area applications, operates in coordination with local Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices to provide voltage security and optimal management of active and reactive power resources. Since the WAVCS relies on wide-area communication and data sharing devices, possible cybersecurity vulnerabilities have to be addressed to ensure the closed-loop operation of WAVCS. In this paper, we present a methodology for performing an impact analysis of cyber-attacks in WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, different types of data integrity attacks, such as malicious tripping, fault replay, and signal altering attacks, are considered, and detailed impact analysis is conducted in a testbed environment using the Kundur's four machine two-area system. For performing an impact analysis, the transient voltage stability of the sensitive bus voltage is studied, followed by the quantitative assessment and severity ranking using the voltage profile index. Our experimental evaluation reveals that the data integrity attacks on control signals exhibit a higher attack severity than on the measurement signals. Further, the severity of these attacks varies with nature (static or dynamic), location, and types of attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗