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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Nature-based solutions in mountain catchments reduce impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow

Quantifying how well Nature-based Solutions can offset anthropogenic climate change impacts is important for adaptation planning, but has rarely been done. Here we show that a widely-applied Nature-based Solution in South Africa – invasive alien tree clearing – reduces the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow. Using a multi-model joint-attribution of climate and landscape-vegetation states during the 2015–2017 Cape Town “Day Zero” drought, we find that anthropogenic climate change reduced streamflow by 12–29% relative to a counterfactual world with anthropogenic emissions removed. This impact on streamflow was larger than corresponding reductions in rainfall (7–15%) and reference evapotranspiration (1.7–2%). Clearing invasive alien trees could have ameliorated streamflow reductions by 3–16% points for moderate invasions levels. Preventing further invasive alien tree spread avoided potential additional reductions of 10–27% points. Total clearing could not have offset the anthropogenic climate change impact completely. Invasive alien tree clearing is an important form of catchment restoration for managing changing hydroclimatic risk, but will need to be combined with other adaptation options as climate change accelerates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resource Assessment for Distributed Wind Energy: An Evaluation of Best-Practice Methods in the Continental US

Current wind resources within the United States (US) indicate a potential to profitably install nearly 1,400 gigawatts of distributed wind (DW) capacity. This amount is equivalent to over half of the United States’ current energy demand from electricity, making it enough to power millions of homes and businesses and replace countless fossil fuel-based generating plants. Despite the potential growth of DW in the US, deployments are presently hindered by a lack of confidence in resource estimation methods. One potential challenge is that smaller-scale turbines, with hub heights of 40 meters or less, are disproportionately impacted by obstacles such as buildings and vegetation. These obstacles may produce complex wake effects, best modeled with high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models that are too computationally expensive to use for routine siting and resource assessment. Thus, installers today make use of heuristics and simple equations to approximate the impact of obstacles while also leveraging long-term resource data from commercial or publicly available atmospheric models. This study evaluates these historical and commonly used methods alongside new lower-order obstacle models produced from CFD simulations and measurement-based bias correction. The preliminary results from this study show the importance of taking care in the choice and application of mesoscale atmospheric models and the significant value of bias correction using measurements from nearby meteorological towers. Detailed obstacle modeling provides only modest additional gains in performance and, in some cases, can add error, especially at sites where turbines have already been located to avoid obvious impact from upwind obstacles. These findings reinforce the importance of collecting in situ measurements and suggest that obstacle models may be better applied in practice to automated or computer-aided siting, rather than in economic wind resource assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

BioRT-Flux-PIHM v1.0: a biogeochemical reactive transport model at the watershed scale

Watersheds are the fundamental Earth surface functioning units that connect the land to aquatic systems. Many watershed-scale models represent hydrological processes but not biogeochemical reactive transport processes. This has limited our capability to understand and predict solute export, water chemistry and quality, and Earth system response to changing climate and anthropogenic conditions. Here we present a recently developed BioRT-Flux-PIHM (BioRT hereafter) v1.0, a watershed-scale biogeochemical reactive transport model. The model augments the previously developed RT-Flux-PIHM that integrates land-surface interactions, surface hydrology, and abiotic geochemical reactions. It enables the simulation of (1) shallow and deep-water partitioning to represent surface runoff, shallow soil water, and deeper groundwater and of (2) biotic processes including plant uptake, soil respiration, and nutrient transformation. The reactive transport part of the code has been verified against the widely used reactive transport code CrunchTope. BioRT-Flux-PIHM v1.0 has recently been applied in multiple watersheds under diverse climate, vegetation, and geological conditions. This paper briefly introduces the governing equations and model structure with a focus on new aspects of the model. It also showcases one hydrology example that simulates shallow and deep-water interactions and two biogeochemical examples relevant to nitrate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). These examples are illustrated in two simulation modes of complexity. One is the spatially lumped mode (i.e., two land cells connected by one river segment) that focuses on processes and average behavior of a watershed. Another is the spatially distributed mode (i.e., hundreds of cells) that includes details of topography, land cover, and soil properties. Whereas the spatially lumped mode represents averaged properties and processes and temporal variations, the spatially distributed mode can be used to understand the impacts of spatial structure and identify hot spots of biogeochemical reactions. The model can be used to mechanistically understand coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes under gradients of climate, vegetation, geology, and land use conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Site-level Foliar C, N, delta13C data from samples collected during field survey associated with NEON AOP survey, East River, CO 2018

Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) weight percent concentrations were obtained from the bulk foliar samples collected across East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds in Gunnison, Colorado during the summer of 2018. These samples were collected from sun-lit leaves of meadow, shrub, and tree vegetation types within 72 hours of the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) hyperspectral survey. These samples were dried and then run on an elemental analyzer coupled to a mass spectrometer for C and N concentrations and delta13C. The intention of these data were to provide ground truth data to develop foliar nutrient models across the imaging spectroscopy domain. Additional associated site metadata and vegetation fractional cover information can be found in the associated data releases (DOI: 10.15485/1618130). Here we provide site level C, N, and delta 13C data in the CN_Results_Foliar.csv. All of these samples were also registered with IGSN codes, and the details from that registration with metadata for the samples is included in foliar_sample_igsn_metadata.csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting pre-vegetation landscape dynamics: The Cambrian Lower Mount Simon Sandstone, Illinois, U.S.A.

ABSTRACT The Cambrian Mount Simon Sandstone has been the subject of extensive study and multiple industrial-scale carbon storage demonstrations at Decatur, Illinois, USA. The development of a reliable paleoenvironmental model is critical to successful large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) storage, but is complicated by the need to interpret pre-vegetation sedimentation processes. The present study presents a paleoenvironmental model of the Lower Mount Simon Sandstone, based on analysis of primary sedimentary structures in two cores and four complete high-resolution resistivity logs (FMI). The Lower Mount Simon Sandstone represents a vertical “drying-up” sequence composed of three associated depositional units: a north–south oriented coastal system at the base, an eastward-directed fluvial unit in the middle, and a westward-directed eolian system at the top that recycled medium- and fine-grained sand in the basin. Quantitative analysis of fluvial cross-strata indicates that the perennial river system was shallow (c. 1 m deep) with relatively narrow channel belts (c. 1 km). Adjacent sandy eolian-floodplain deposits contain abundant thin, crinkly planar laminae that are enriched in fines and are interpreted as cementation surfaces, likely of biological origin. Deflation lags and wind-ripple strata are commonly interbedded with the crinkly strata, suggesting that the recurrence of erosion and deposition that controlled sedimentary preservation on the floodplain were dominated by eolian transport, re-wetting, and (bio-) cementation. Such a prominent role of exposure to the wind, basin-scale sediment recycling, and eolian removal of fine-grained sediment would have ceased to exist for most climates after the development of vegetation on land, yet, may well be key to understanding the environmental context for early life on Earth.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Foliar element determination from field survey in association with the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform survey, East River, Colorado 2018

The purpose of this dataset is to support research aimed at understanding the coupling between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes at watershed scale, particularly the relationship between aboveground vegetation characteristics and subsurface soil properties. These data are intended to inform and calibrate models of catchment-scale biogeochemical fluxes, including rock-derived nutrient cycling, and they were procured to address the following questions: (1) What is the distribution of vegetation characteristics across the study catchments? (2) Are foliar concentrations of rock-derived nutrients related to underlying lithology and soil availability, or are these signals masked by biotic nutrient cycling and retention processes?This data package contains foliar elemental data collected during the 2018 National Ecological Observatory Networks (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) imaging spectroscopy and lidar surveys in Gunnison County, Colorado. Folair samples were collected across the East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds and contain a mixture of vegetation including meadow, shrub, and tree foliar samples. The samples were processed using aqua regia digestion and analyzed for elemental determination on inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES).The data package includes: (1) raw foliar elemental data files in CSV and PDF formats, (2) quality control certificates in PDF format, and (3) an aggregated CSV file containing all elemental measurements compiled across samples. No specialized software is required to access or use these files.

2018 National Ecological Observatory Network Campa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data used in “Enguehard et al. 2022, Machine-Learning Functional Zonation Approach for Characterizing Terrestrial–Aquatic Interfaces: Application to Lake Erie”

The package contains the data layers used in “Enguehard et al. 2022, Machine-Learning Functional Zonation Approach for Characterizing Terrestrial–Aquatic Interfaces: Application to Lake Erie”. Spatial data layers include: topography, wetland vegetation cover, time series of Landsat’s enhanced vegetation index (EVI) between 1990 and 2020. The study aims to characterize coastal wetlands with particular focus on the co-variability between plant dynamics, topography, soil, and other environmental factors. We proposed a functional zonation approach based on machine learning clustering to identify the spatial regions, i.e., zones that capture these co-varied properties. This approach was applied to publicly available datasets along Lake Erie, in the Great Lakes Region

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km 2 (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

UAS remote sensing (3DR SOLO platform): multispectral reflectance and normalized difference vegetation index, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022

Airborne remote sensing data collected using a Parrot Sequoia+ multispectral sensor installed on a 3DR SOLO unoccupied aerial system (UAS) – operated by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science & Technology group https://www.bnl.gov/envsci/testgroup/ at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This package includes data from 19 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic, Kougarok Mile Marker (MM) 80, Kougarok Fire Complex (KFC) and Teller MM 27 sites in July 2022. Derived image products include point cloud, ortho-mosaiced multispectral image, a digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) map. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). Data and metadata are provided as text (*.txt, *.json, *hdr,), tabular (*.dat, *.csv), point cloud (*.laz), Cloud Optimized GeoTIFF (COG, *.tif), and image (*.jpg, *.tif, *png) formats.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deforestation reshapes land-surface energy-flux partitioning

Land-use and land-cover change significantly modify local land-surface characteristics and water/energy exchanges, which can lead to atmospheric circulation and regional climate changes. In particular, deforestation accounts for a large portion of global land-use changes, which transforms forests into other land cover types, such as croplands and grazing lands. Many previous efforts have focused on observing and modeling land–atmosphere–water/energy fluxes to investigate land–atmosphere coupling induced by deforestation. However, interpreting land–atmosphere–water/energy-flux responses to deforestation is often complicated by the concurrent impacts from shifts in land-surface properties versus background atmospheric forcings. In this study, we used 29 paired FLUXNET sites, to improve understanding of how deforested land surfaces drive changes in surface-energy-flux partitioning. Each paired sites included an intact forested and non-forested site that had similar background climate. We employed transfer entropy, a method based on information theory, to diagnose directional controls between coupling variables, and identify nonlinear cause–effect relationships. Transfer entropy is a powerful tool to detective causal relationships in nonlinear and asynchronous systems. The paired eddy covariance flux measurements showed consistent and strong information flows from vegetation activity (gross primary productivity (GPP)) and physical climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, air temperature) to evaporative fraction (EF) over both non-forested and forested land surfaces. More importantly, the information transfers from radiation, precipitation, and GPP to EF were significantly reduced at non-forested sites, compared to forested sites. We then applied these observationally constrained metrics as benchmarks to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). ELM predicted vegetation controls on EF relatively well, but underpredicted climate factors on EF, indicating model deficiencies in describing the relationships between atmospheric state and surface fluxes. Moreover, changes in controls on surface energy flux partitioning due to deforestation were not detected in the model. We highlight the need for benchmarking model simulated surface-energy fluxes and the corresponding causal relationships against those of observations, to improve our understanding of model predictability on how deforestation reshapes land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Colorado East River Community Observatory Data Collection

Abstract The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Colorado East River Community Observatory (ER) in the Upper Colorado River Basin was established in 2015 as a representative mountainous, snow‐dominated watershed to study hydrobiogeochemical responses to hydrological perturbations in headwater systems. The ER is characterized by steep elevation, geologic, hydrologic and vegetation gradients along floodplain, montane, subalpine, and alpine life zones, which makes it an ideal location for researchers to understand how different mountain subsystems contribute to overall watershed behaviour. The ER has both long‐term and spatially‐extensive observations and experimental campaigns carried out by the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA), led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and researchers from over 30 organizations who conduct cross‐disciplinary process‐based investigations and modelling of watershed behaviour. The heterogeneous data generated at the ER include hydrological, genomic, biogeochemical, climate, vegetation, geological, and remote sensing data, which combined with model inputs and outputs comprise a collection of datasets and value‐added products within a mountainous watershed that span multiple spatiotemporal scales, compartments, and life zones. Within 5 years of collection, these datasets have revealed insights into numerous aspects of watershed function such as factors influencing snow accumulation and melt timing, water balance partitioning, and impacts of floodplain biogeochemistry and hillslope ecohydrology on riverine geochemical exports. Data generated by the SFA are managed and curated through its Data Management Framework. The SFA has an open data policy, and over 70 ER datasets are publicly available through relevant data repositories. A public interactive map of data collection sites run by the SFA is available to inform the broader community about SFA field activities. Here, we describe the ER and the SFA measurement network, present the public data collection generated by the SFA and partner institutions, and highlight the value of collecting multidisciplinary multiscale measurements in representative catchment observatories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

3,3’-Diindolylmethane Exhibits Significant Metabolism After Oral Dosing in Humans

3,3’-Diindolylmethane (DIM), a major phytochemical derived from ingestion of cruciferous vegetables such as Brussels sprouts, is also a dietary supplement. In preclinical models, DIM is an effective cancer chemopreventive agent and has been studied in a number of clinical trials. Previous pharmacokinetic studies in preclinical and clinical models have not reported DIM metabolites in plasma or urine following oral dosing and the pharmacological actions of DIM on target tissues is assumed to be solely via the parent compound. Seven subjects (6 males and 1 female) ranging from 26-65 years of age, on a cruciferous vegetable-restricted diet prior to and during the study, took 2 BioResponse-DIM® 150 mg capsules (45.3 mg DIM/capsule) in the evening for one week with a final dose the morning of the first blood draw. A complete time course was performed with plasma and urine collected over 48 hours and analyzed by UPLC-MS/MS. In addition to parent DIM, two mono-hydroxylated (2-ox- and 3-methylenehydroxy-DIM) and 1 dihydroxylated (3-methylenehydroxy-2-ox-DIM) metabolites, along with their sulfate and glucuronide conjugates, were present in both plasma and urine. The results reported here are indicative of significant phase 1 and phase 2 metabolism and differ from previous pharmacokinetic studies in rodents and humans which reported only parent DIM present following oral administration.

Vermillion-Maier, Monica↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effects of slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed on fire spreading behavior for various vegetation

Wildland fire behavior is significantly influenced by environmental factors such as slope steepness, wind speed, and fuel type. Understanding these interactions is critical for improving predictive models and fire management. This study explores how slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed influence fire spread dynamics in various fuel bed types. Simulations are conducted using a physics-based wildland fire model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, across six slope angles (0–50 %), four cross-slope wind speeds (4–10 m s –1 ), and three fuel bed types (grass, shrubland, and forest). Representative cases are additionally compared with FARSITE fireline evolution. Fire behavior is categorized into distinct propagation types based on spread characteristics and analyzed. The fire propagation angle, which indicates deviation from the wind direction, generally increases with steeper slopes and decreases with stronger cross-slope winds. Secondary upslope propagation is observed in shrubland under moderate slopes, while secondary downwind propagation occurs in all fuel beds at higher wind speeds. These findings highlight fire spread characteristics that differ from predictions by traditional models like Rothermel’s. By capturing complex propagation patterns and dynamics, this study demonstrates the value of a physics-based, atmosphere-fire coupled model for accurate wildland fire prediction. Incorporating secondary propagations and the influence of fuel bed complexities into predictive models can improve the accuracy of fire spread forecasts, enabling more effective fire management and risk mitigation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts from: “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”

This data package includes data and scripts from the manuscript “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”.The study addressed common challenges faced in environmental sensing and modeling, including uncertain input data, missing sensor observations, and high-dimensional datasets with interrelated but redundant variables. Point-scaled meteorological and soil sensor observations were perturbed with noises and missing values, and denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural networks were developed to reconstruct the perturbed data and further predict evapotranspiration. This study concluded that (1) the reconstruction quality of each variable depends on its cross-correlation and alignment to the underlying data structure, (2) uncertainties from the models were overall stronger than those from the data corruption, and (3) there was a tradeoff between reducing bias and reducing variance when evaluating the uncertainty of the machine learning models.This package includes:(1) Four ipython scripts (.ipynb): “DAE_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates DAE neural networks, “DAE_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from the trained DAE models, “ET_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates ET prediction neural networks, and “ET_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from trained ET models.(2) One python file (.py): “methods.py” includes all user-defined functions and python codes used in the ipython scripts.(3) A “sub_models” folder that includes five trained DAE neural networks (in pytorch format, .pt), which could be used to ingest input data before being fed to the downstream ET models in ‘ET_train.ipynb” or ‘ET_predict.ipynb’.(4) Two data files (.csv). Daily meteorological, vegetation, and soil data is in “df_data.csv”, where “df_meta.csv” contains the location and time information of “df_data.csv”. Each row (index) in “df_meta.csv” corresponds to each row in “df_data.csv”. These data files are formatted to follow the data structure requirements and be directly used in the ipython scripts, and they have been shuffled chronologically to train machine learning models. The meteorological and soil data was collected using point sensors between 2019-2023 at(4.a) Three shrub-dominated field sites in East River, Colorado (named “ph1”, “ph2” and “sg5” in “df_meta.csv”, where “ph1” and “ph2” were located at PumpHouse Hillslopes, and “sg5” was at Snodgrass Mountain meadow) and(4.b) One outdoor, mesoscale, and herbaceous-dominated experiment in Berkeley, California (named “tb” in “df_meta.csv”, short for Smartsoils Testbed at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab).- See "df_data_dd.csv" and "df_meta_dd.csv" for variable descriptions and the Methods section for additional data processing steps. See "flmd.csv" and "README.txt" for brief file descriptions.- All ipython scripts and python files are written in and require PYTHON language software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Representing the Unrepresented Impact of River Ice on Hydrology, Biogeochemistry, Vegetation, and Geomorphology: A Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning Approach

Focal areas include: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system composed of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost

Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst represents an accelerating climate feedback, but uncertainties remain about how ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation interact to shape landscape change and carbon fluxes. We extended the process-based model ecosys to simulate thermokarst dynamics in laterally coupled 2D transects at a well-characterized boreal peatland site in Canada’s Northwest Territories. After benchmarking against site observations, we varied ground ice content and hydrologic boundary conditions across ranges typical near the southern permafrost limit. Simulations revealed distinct degradation regimes governed by the elevation difference between the frost table and the external water table. Rates of lateral retreat, the thaw-driven encroachment of wetlands into adjacent plateaus, ranged from 0 to >2 m yr −1 under identical weather forcing, consistent with observations and highlighting the strong role of WT and ground ice. Simulated vegetation dynamics indicate that black spruce mortality cannot be explained by anoxia alone, pointing to additional stressors such as root damage, pathogens, or physical destabilization. Despite large hydrologic shifts, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange remained a slight sink after collapse, while methane (CH 4 ) emissions rose by one to two orders of magnitude. As a result, lateral retreat substantially increases the greenhouse warming potential of permafrost peatlands (1.7 million km 2 in area), with simulated emissions of 0.1–10 Mt CO 2 -eq decade −1 depending on hydrology and retreat rates. These results underscore the need to account for both ground ice and hydrologic dynamics when assessing thermokarst-driven climate feedbacks.

carbon cycling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗