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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

The application of statistically designed experiments to resistance spot welding

State-of-the-art Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) equipment has the potential to permit realtime monitoring of operations through advances in computerized process control. In order to realize adaptive feedback capabilities, it is necessary to establish correlations among process variables, welder outputs, and weldment properties. The initial step toward achieving this goal must involve assessment of the effect of specific process inputs and the interactions among these variables on spot weld characteristics. This investigation evaluated these effects through the application of a statistically designed experiment to the RSW process. A half-factorial, Taguchi L sub 16 design was used to understand and refine a RSW schedule developed for welding dissimilar aluminum-lithium alloys of different thickness. The baseline schedule had been established previously by traditional trial and error methods based on engineering judgment and one-factor-at-a-time studies. A hierarchy of inputs with respect to each other was established, and the significance of these inputs with respect to experimental noise was determined. Useful insight was gained into the effect of interactions among process variables, particularly with respect to weldment defects. The effects of equipment related changes associated with disassembly and recalibration were also identified. In spite of an apparent decrease in equipment performance, a significant improvement in the maximum strength for defect-free welds compared to the baseline schedule was achieved.

Hafley, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effective Emissivity of Nonisothermal Isogrid for Spacecraft Radiator Applications

Accurate knowledge of the optical properties of spacecraft components, especially external components, is critical for proper spacecraft thermal design. The effective emissivity of isogrid (an array of equilateral triangular cavities) is not well understood, which poses a challenge for spacecraft thermal management. In this thesis the effective emissivity of isogrid with a prescribed base temperature and nonisothermal walls is examined. The temperature profile of the cavity’s walls and the overall effective emissivity of the cavity are found using Thermal Desktop with Monte Carlo ray tracing. The effective emissivity’s dependence on the wall height, wall thickness, wall resistance, and surface emissivity are examined. The existence of a critical wall height, and the contributing factors to this critical height, are discussed. Comparisons between isogrid and cavities with different base geometries are made. A variable emissivity isogrid spacecraft radiator concept employing the cavity effect is proposed, and mechanisms for achieving this are discussed.

Seth Abramczyk↗
DOE OSTI2025

A predictive analytical model of electrical transport in multi-principal-element alloys

A predictive analytical model is presented for the electrical conductivity of multi-principal-element alloys (MPEAs), including those containing aluminum, transition metals, and refractory metals. Given that the lattice parameter of the Wigner-Seitz cell of an MPEA is similarly variable to a bulk metallic glass, it is postulated that electron scattering can be approximated by a series of two-level systems. Here, the resulting reduced-order model enabled an accurate determination of electrical resistivity and electron thermal conductivity based on the scattering of electrons in a two-level system across a Bloch-potential-based virtual crystal approximation. Model results are compared to experimental four-point probe electrical resistivity measurements between 300 K and 700 K for Al 0.3 CoCrCuFeNi, CoCrFeMnNi, (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.98 W 0.02 , (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.95 W 0.05 , and Nb 4 Ta 4 V 3 Ti, for model validation.

Analytical model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanical and tribological properties of anodic Al coatings as a function of anodizing conditions

Enhanced wear and corrosion resistance properties are vital for numerous functional and decorative applications. Anodizing is a process frequently used to generate stable oxide coatings on metal surfaces, including aluminium (Al). In this work, we present an evaluation of process variables for optimized anodized coating properties using existing methods and as a baseline for novel coating development. A representative relatively pure Al alloy was chosen as a model system with a goal of finding conditions to achieve high wear coatings with retained ductility. AA5052 alloy coupons were anodized in two different electrolytes (sulfuric and phosphoric acid) to study the effects of anodizing conditions on the mechanical and tribological properties of the anodic coatings. Porosity was evaluated with microscopy, coating hardness was determined via nanoindentation, and tribological properties were characterized using a pin-on-disk tribometer. These measurements were correlated and a loading evaluation was performed to assess the optimum nanoindentation parameters for the use of representative coupons without the need for special processing prior to anodizing. The porosity and coating thickness were found to depend on the anodizing time and the type of electrolyte. Thicker and harder anodic coatings were generated in sulfuric acid compared to phosphoric acid. Porosity studies of the anodic coatings generated in phosphoric acid revealed that coating porosity decreased as the anodizing time increased. Both electrolytes generated anodic coatings with improved tribological properties (friction coefficient and dimensional wear rate), and an optimum processing time was identified for best wear properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Watershed zonation through hillslope clustering for tractably quantifying above- and below-ground watershed heterogeneity and functions

Abstract. In this study, we develop a watershed zonation approach for characterizing watershed organization and functions in a tractable manner by integrating multiple spatial data layers. We hypothesize that (1) a hillslope is an appropriate unit for capturing the watershed-scale heterogeneity of key bedrock-through-canopy properties and for quantifying the co-variability of these properties representing coupled ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions, (2) remote sensing data layers and clustering methods can be used to identify watershed hillslope zones having the unique distributions of these properties relative to neighboring parcels, and (3) property suites associated with the identified zones can be used to understand zone-based functions, such as response to early snowmelt or drought and solute exports to the river. We demonstrate this concept using unsupervised clustering methods that synthesize airborne remote sensing data (lidar, hyperspectral, and electromagnetic surveys) along with satellite and streamflow data collected in the East River Watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. Results show that (1) we can define the scale of hillslopes at which the hillslope-averaged metrics can capture the majority of the overall variability in key properties (such as elevation, net potential annual radiation, and peak snow-water equivalent – SWE), (2) elevation and aspect are independent controls on plant and snow signatures, (3) near-surface bedrock electrical resistivity (top 20 m) and geological structures are significantly correlated with surface topography and plan species distribution, and (4) K-means, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussian mixture clustering methods generate similar zonation patterns across the watershed. Using independently collected data, we show that the identified zones provide information about zone-based watershed functions, including foresummer drought sensitivity and river nitrogen exports. The approach is expected to be applicable to other sites and generally useful for guiding the selection of hillslope-experiment locations and informing model parameterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic Rainfall Simulator: a tool to understand the effects of changing rainfall patterns in the Arctic

Rainfall frequency and intensity are expected to increase in the Arctic, with potential detrimental impacts on permafrost, leading to enhanced thawing and carbon release to the atmosphere. However, there have been very few studies on the effect of discrete rain events on permafrost in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. Conducting controlled rainfall experiments within permafrost landscapes can provide an improved understanding of the effect of changing intensity, duration, and timing of rain events on permafrost tundra ecosystems. Here, we describe the design and implementation of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic Rainfall Simulator (NARS), a variable intensity (4–82 mm/h) rainfall simulator that can be used to study the effects of rainfall on permafrost stability. The NARS design includes a 3D-printed 4 cm H-flume and uses an eTape resistivity sensor that was calibrated (R 2 = 0.9–0.96) to measure discharge from the system. NARS is designed to be lightweight, simple to construct, and can be easily deployed in remote locations. As a field validation of updated rainfall simulator design and modernized controls, NARS was tested on the Seward Peninsula, AK. Because of its portability, versatility in deployment, dimensions, and rainfall intensity, NARS represents a methodological innovation for researching the impacts of rainfall on permafrost environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance analysis and comparison of data-driven models for predicting indoor temperature in multi-zone commercial buildings

Building thermal models, which characterize the properties of a building’s envelope and thermal mass, are essential for accurate indoor temperature and cooling/heating demand prediction. Because of their flexibility and ease of use, data-driven models are increasingly used. Here, this study compared and analyzed the performance of gray-box (resistance-capacitance) and black-box (recurrent neural network) models for predicting indoor air temperature in a real multi-zone commercial building. The developed resistance-capacitance model served as a benchmark model for which full sets of temporal data and building information were used as inputs. The recurrent neural network models were trained and tested assuming various available types and amounts of temporal data and known building physical information to investigate the effects of data and information availability. Feature importance analysis was conducted to select the key variables for different prediction targets under different scenarios. This research provides guidance in selecting an appropriate building thermal response modeling method based on the measured data availability, building physical information, and application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2004

Malaria Modeling using Remote Sensing and GIS Technologies

Malaria has been with the human race since the ancient time. In spite of the advances of biomedical research and the completion of genomic mapping of Plasmodium falciparum, the exact mechanisms of how the various strains of parasites evade the human immune system and how they have adapted and become resistant to multiple drugs remain elusive. Perhaps because of these reasons, effective vaccines against malaria are still not available. Worldwide, approximately one to three millions deaths are attributed to malaria annually. With the increased availability of remotely sensed data, researchers in medical entomology, epidemiology and ecology have started to associate environmental and ecological variables with malaria transmission. In several studies, it has been shown that transmission correlates well with certain environmental and ecological parameters, and that remote sensing can be used to measure these determinants. In a NASA project, we have taken a holistic approach to examine how remote sensing and GIs can contribute to vector and malaria controls. To gain a better understanding of the interactions among the possible promoting factors, we have been developing a habitat model, a transmission model, and a risk prediction model, all using remote sensing data as input. Our objectives are: 1) To identify the potential breeding sites of major vector species and the locations for larvicide and insecticide applications in order to reduce costs, lessen the chance of developing pesticide resistance, and minimize the damage to the environment; 2) To develop a malaria transmission model characterizing the interactions among hosts, vectors, parasites, landcover and environment in order to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission, and 3) To develop a risk model to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity using epidemiological data and satellite-derived or ground-measured environmental and meteorological data.

Kiang, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Impacts on Modeling Weather Variables and Ozone in the Southeastern US – Part 2: Sensitivity to Dry-Deposition Parameterizations

Ozone (O3) dry deposition is a major O3 sink. As a follow-up study of Huang et al. (2021), we quantify the impact of satellite soil moisture (SM) on model representations of this process when different dry-deposition parameterizations are implemented, based on which the implications for interpreting O3 air pollution levels and assessing the O3 impacts on human and ecosystem health are provided. The SM data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission are assimilated into the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model within the NASA Land Information System framework, semicoupled with Weather Research and Forecasting model with online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) regional-scale simulations covering the southeastern US. Major changes in the modeling system used include enabling the dynamic vegetation option, adding the irrigation process, and updating the scheme for the surface exchange coefficient. Two dry-deposition schemes are implemented, i.e., the Wesely scheme and a “dynamic” scheme, in the latter of which dry-deposition parameterization is coupled with photosynthesis and vegetation dynamics. It is demonstrated that, when the dynamic scheme is applied, the simulated O3 dry-deposition velocities vd and their stomatal and cuticular portions, as well as the total O3 fluxes Ft, are larger overall; vd and Ft are 2–3 times more sensitive to the SM changes due to the data assimilation (DA). Further, through case studies at two forested sites with different soil types and hydrological regimes, we highlight that, applying the Community Land Model type of SM factor controlling stomatal resistance (i.e., β factor) scheme in replacement of the Noah-type β factor scheme reduced the v(d) sensitivity to SM changes by ∼75 % at one site, while it doubled this sensitivity at the other site. Referring to multiple evaluation datasets, which may be associated with variable extents of uncertainty, the model performance of vegetation, surface fluxes, weather, and surface O3 concentrations shows mixed responses to the DA, some of which display land cover dependency. Finally, using model-derived concentration- and flux-based policy-relevant O3 metrics as well as their matching exposure–response functions, the relative biomass/crop yield losses for several types of vegetation/crops are estimated to be within a wide range of 1 %–17 %. Their sensitivities to the model's dry-deposition scheme and the implementation of SM DA are discussed.

Min Huang↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Heat Pump Rooftop Units

The heat pump rooftop units (RTUs) measure replaces gas furnace and electric resistance RTUs with high-efficiency heat pump rooftop units (HP-RTUs). The HP-RTUs are intended to be top-of-the line, including high-efficiency fans and heat pump systems. The fans are variable speed, allowing the HP-RTUs to operate as single-zone variable air volume systems. The heat pumps are also variable speed, allowing for high part load performance. All schedules in the existing RTUs are transferred to the new HP-RTUs for consistency. Furthermore, any energy efficiency features in the existing baseline RTUs such as energy recovery or economizers are also transferred to the new HP-RTUs for consistency. This measure is applicable to approximately 45% of the ComStock floor area. The HP-RTU measure demonstrates 10.3% total site energy savings (449 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Featureless adaptive optimization accelerates functional electronic materials design

Electronic materials that exhibit phase transitions between metastable states (e.g., metal-insulator transition materials with abrupt electrical resistivity transformations) are challenging to decode. For these materials, conventional machine learning methods display limited predictive capability due to data scarcity and the absence of features that impede model training. In this article, we demonstrate a discovery strategy based on multi-objective Bayesian optimization to directly circumvent these bottlenecks by utilizing latent variable Gaussian processes combined with high-fidelity electronic structure calculations for validation in the chalcogenide lacunar spinel family. We directly and simultaneously learn phase stability and bandgap tunability from chemical composition alone to efficiently discover all superior compositions on the design Pareto front. Previously unidentified electronic transitions also emerge from our featureless adaptive optimization engine. Our methodology readily generalizes to optimization of multiple properties, enabling co-design of complex multifunctional materials, especially where prior data is sparse.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Deposition Rate and Closing the Loop on Aerosol Jet Printing with In‐Line Light Scattering Measurements

Aerosol jet printing is a compelling noncontact, digital manufacturing technology for flexible, hybrid, and conformal electronics, but batch‐to‐batch variability and process drift inhibit systematic study and translation to production environments. Emerging measurement techniques for the aerosol volume fraction, a key parameter governing deposition rate, have shown promise for real‐time response, including a recent demonstration of human‐in‐the‐loop control. By integrating improved light scattering measurements with custom software, a robust environment for real‐time monitoring is established and fully automated closed‐loop control over the deposition rate during printing is enabled. The physical basis for scattering measurements as a feedback source is examined and the quantitative insight this provides for ink development and fundamental process studies is highlighted. Three candidate process variables for closed‐loop control, namely the atomizer voltage, carrier gas flow rate, and print speed, are then evaluated. The atomizer voltage demonstrates the best extended duration validity because it addresses atomization variability directly, but carrier gas flow rate and print speed provide faster and more deterministic responses. This methodology is then demonstrated for electrical properties using a silver nanoparticle ink, maintaining 98% of printed patterns within 10% of the mean resistance value over 3 h of printing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling the influence of selective-area-regrowth interfaces on local electronic properties of GaN p-n junctions for efficient power devices

Here, we report correlated nanoscale mapping of the structure, composition, and properties of regrown GaN p-n junctions to identify how etching and non-planar regrowth processes limit diode performance via the introduction of unintentional dopants and defect states. p-GaN was selectively regrown in n-GaN trenches with SiO 2 masks of variable mask-to-trench-width ratio. Dilute Al layers were periodically introduced during regrowth as markers of the growth interface. Correlated nanoscale mapping of doping, conductivity, and dopant complexes was achieved with atom probe tomography (APT), scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM), and cathodoluminescence (CL) spectroscopy, respectively. The Al marker layers, detected by APT, enabled reconstruction of the faceted growth interface and correlation of the dopant concentration with position and time. The p-GaN growth rate is proportional to the mask-to-trench width ratio while the dopant incorporation rate is invariant. At trench edges, magnesium incorporation is suppressed, and oxygen incorporation enhanced, due to preferential incorporation on the semi-polar growth surface, leading to compensation and less abrupt p-n junctions; the SiO 2 mask is a source of oxygen. Residual etch damage below the regrowth interface induces n-type and p-type conductivity, creating leakage pathways. The non-uniform Mg incorporation is driven by crystal anisotropy and is thus inherent to non-planar regrowth, but can be mitigated by engineering the regrowth interface and process parameters. The unprecedented integration of spatially resolved mapping of dopants, impurities, conductivity, and carrier type is a powerful approach to discriminating distinct factors that limit the performance of regrown diodes, enabling the rational optimization of process and device design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of Electrical Characteristics of Thin Film Photovoltaic Cells

Solar energy is the most abundant form of energy in many terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments. Often in extraterrestrial environments sunlight is the only readily available form of energy. Thus the ability to efficiently harness solar energy is one of the ultimate goals in the design of space power systems. The essential component that converts solar energy into electrical energy in a solar energy based power system is the photovoltaic cell. Traditionally, photovoltaic cells are based on a single crystal silicon absorber. While silicon is a well understood technology and yields high efficiency, there are inherent disadvantages to using single crystal materials. The requirements of weight, large planar surfaces, and high manufacturing costs make large silicon cells prohibitively expensive for use in certain applications. Because of silicon s disadvantages, there is considerable ongoing research into alternative photovoltaic technologies. In particular, thin film photovoltaic technologies exhibit a promising future in space power systems. While they are less mature than silicon, the better radiation hardness, reduced weight, ease of manufacturing, low material cost, and the ability to use virtually any exposed surface as a substrate makes thin film technologies very attractive for space applications. The research group lead by Dr. Hepp has spent several years researching copper indium disulfide as an absorber material for use in thin film photovoltaic cells. While the group has succeeded in developing a single source precursor for CuInS2 as well as a unique method of aerosol assisted chemical vapor deposition, the resulting cells have not achieved adequate efficiencies. While efficiencies of 11 % have been demonstrated with CuInS2 based cells, the cells produced by this group have shown efficiencies of approximately 1 %. Thus, current research efforts are turning towards the analysis of the individual layers of these cells, as well as the junctions between them, to determine the cause of the poor yields. As a student of electrical engineering with some material science background, my role in this research is to develop techniques for analyzing the electrical characteristics of the CuInS2 cells. My first task was to design a shadow mask to be used to place molybdenum contacts under a layer of CuInS;! in order to analyze the contact resistance between the materials. In addition, I have also analyzed evaporated aluminum top contacts and have tested various methods of increasing their thicknesses in order to decrease series resistance. More recently I have worked with other members of the research group in reviving a vertical cold-wall reactor for experimentation with CuInS2 quantum dots. As part of that project, I have improved the design for a variable frequency and pulse width square wave generator to be used in driving the precursor injection process. My task throughout the remainder of my tenure is to continue to analyze and develop tools for the analysis of electrical properties of the CuInS2 cells with the ultimate goal of discovering ways to improve the efficiency of our photovoltaic cells. Traditionally, photovoltaic cells are based on a single crystal silicon absorber. While The research group lead by Dr. Hepp has spent several years researching copper indium

Kasick, Michael P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new phenomenological model to describe root-soil interactions based on percolation theory

In his paper on net primary productivity of terrestrial communities predicted from climatological data, Rosenzweig (1968) argued that variability in productivity is well accounted for by (evapo)-transpiration, and that water from transpiration is, on global scales, the most variable component in the photosynthesis reaction. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether variability in plant growth on local scales and within species is primarily related to transpiration under several scenarios including different terrain curvature, slope aspect, soil characteristics, and climate ranges. Here, we test the hypothesis that this relationship exists because root growth into the surface soil layers (0–2 m) tends to follow paths with minima in resistance, which in turn maximizes water flow and nutrient delivery rates that regulate growth. The set of all connected paths with individual pore-to-pore flow resistances less than a critical, percolating, value forms a cluster with mass fractal dimensionality, d f . We propose that roots follow paths through the 2D percolation cluster, defining the set of all optimal flow paths, making the 2D value of d f from percolation relevant to root fractal dimensionality. The tortuosity of such optimal paths as defined in percolation theory should then relate root length to root radial extent, linking the parameters of root tortuosity and plant productivity. Our analysis of large data sets across species implies that root radial extent and tree height are both proportional to cumulative transpiration until trees approached maximum height, and their growth rates are proportional to the transpiration rate, not to the moisture content. Local variations in tree height as functions of the variables investigated appear generally consistent with deduced variations in transpiration. Here this correlation is investigated more closely in the context of studies addressing individual tree species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using In-Situ Deposition of Metallic Thin Films on Mars to Monitor Atmospheric H20

We describe the use of a novel sensor, designed to characterize the reactive nature of the Martian atmosphere, to also characterize the instantaneous abundance of atmospheric H,O. The sensor deposits, in situ, a thin silver film onto a sapphire substrate and monitors oxidation by measuring resistance of the Ag film during both deposition and subsequent oxidation [1,2]. . The evaporation source is placed in the center of a hollow, open-ended tube. On flash heating the source, evaporated metallic silver rapidly reacts with oxidizing gases in the tube, depositing on the tube walls as a resisitive Ag oxide film. Unoxidized silver deposits over the Ag oxides, once the oxidizing gases in the vicinity of the source have been consumed. Since the ends of the tube are open, atmospheric gases in the tube cause a time delay as the evaporated silver initially reacts with the available O2, and H2O; once oxidizing gases in the tube are significantly depleted, a silver film closes the chemiresistor circuit. In principle this operation mode provides a repeatable measure of the variable H2O abundance, since O2, levels are constant in the atmosphere. To explore the utility of the instrument as an H2O sensor, predict its behavior, and identify possible failure modes, we developed a numerical model of the instrument, and exercised it for Mars conditions. The model predicts the behavior of the electrical circuit, the temperature dependence of resistivity for each component, and the resultant Joule heating. The model balances Joule heating against radiation, sensible heat loss to ambient CO2, and, latent heat loss from sublimating Ag. The flux of Ag atoms from the source is tracked continuously. In the gas phase, the number density of Ag, O2, and H2O is calculated, along with their reaction rates on collision. The model suggests that Ag substantially depletes H2O only near the center of the tube. The model supports the hypothesis that the onset of high conductivity between the A u electrodes is a function of the H2O abundance in the ambient gas, but only to a limit; when H2O abundances are buffered at or above 240K (an H2O abundance that would not have occurred on Mars), metallic Ag never deposits in excess of Ago, and the circuit does not close. A significant difference in the Mars simulation is that the Ag source sublimates more quickly, primarily because of differences in sensible heat fluxes from the source. This allows subsequent heating of the W filament used to support the Ag source. Had the originally-designed experimental sequence been carried out on Mars, the filament might have melted, making subsequent investigations impossible.

Zent, A. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Holistic design principles for flow batteries: Cation dependent membrane resistance and active species solubility

Cation dependent resistance of a commercial cation exchange membrane, Nafion™ 212, as well as the solubility of select active materials are investigated, demonstrating practical consequences of cation choice on redox flow battery (RFB) performance. The conductivity of alkali and methyl- or -alcohol substituted ammonium cations through pretreated Nafion™ 212 reveal that cation size is the dominant factor affecting ionic transport. Among the alkali series the resistance increases with larger ionic radii and similarly, with increasing steric bulk through substitution on ammonia. The solubility of ferrocyanide, a commonly used redox flow battery posolyte (or catholyte), as well as iron, cobalt, and chromium metal-organic compounds are determined for the same series of cations. Full cells are assembled using various cation mixtures and membrane pre-treatments to demonstrate practical effects of each variable. Here, we highlight the need to carefully select the correct cations for efficient electrolyte design, since certain cations may lead to high conductivity but low solubility, or vice versa, and provide design principles for RFBs using Nafion™ 212.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea‐level rise in the mid‐Atlantic coast

Abstract Ghost forests consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes are striking indicators of climate change, and marsh migration into retreating coastal forests is a primary mechanism for marsh survival in the face of global sea‐level rise. Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low‐elevation forests along the US mid‐Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea‐level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi‐decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea‐level rise have yet to be realized.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗