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At least 343 records · Page 19

Multiphysics Modeling Framework for Soft PVC Gel Sensors with Experimental Comparisons

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) gels have recently been found to exhibit mechanoelectrical transduction or sensing capabilities under compressive loading applications. This phenomenon is not wholly understood but has been characterized as an adsorption-like phenomena under varying amounts and types of plasticizers. A different polymer lattice structure has also been tested, thermoplastic polyurethane, which showed similar sensing characteristics. This study examines mechanical and electrical properties of these gel sensors and proposes a mathematical framework of the underlying mechanisms of mechanoelectrical transduction. COMSOL Multiphysics is used to show solid mechanics characteristics, electrostatic properties, and transport of interstitial plasticizer under compressive loading applications. The solid mechanics takes a continuum mechanics approach and includes a highly compressive Storakers material model for compressive loading applications. The electrostatics and transport properties include charge conservation and a Langmuir adsorption migration model with variable diffusion properties based on plasticizer properties. Results show both plasticizer concentration gradient as well as expected voltage response under varying amounts and types of plasticizers. Experimental work is also completed to show agreeance with the modeling results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

3-D Geologic Controls of Hydrothermal Fluid Flow at Brady Geothermal Field, Nevada using PCA

In many hydrothermal systems, fracture permeability along faults provides pathways for groundwater to transport heat from depth. Faulting generates a range of deformation styles that cross-cut heterogeneous geology, resulting in complex patterns of permeability, porosity, and hydraulic conductivity. Vertical connectivity (a through going network of permeable areas that allows advection of heat from depth to the shallow subsurface) is rare and is confined to relatively small volumes that have highly variable spatial distribution. This local compartmentalization of connectivity represents a significant challenge to understanding hydrothermal circulation and for exploring, developing, and managing hydrothermal resources. Here, we present an evaluation of the geologic characteristics that control this compartmentalization in hydrothermal systems through 3-D analysis of the Brady geothermal field in western Nevada. A published 3-D geologic map of the Brady area is used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity. The 3-D distribution of these variables is compared to the distribution of productive and non-productive fluid flow intervals along production wells and non-productive wells via principal component analysis (PCA). This comparison elucidates which geologic and structural variables are most closely associated with productive fluid flow intervals. Results indicate that production intervals at Brady are located: (1) within or near to known and stress-loaded macro-scale faults, and (2) in areas of high fault and fracture density. This submission includes the published journal article detailing this work, the published 3-D geologic map of the Brady Geothermal Area used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity, 3-D well data, along which geologic data were sampled for PCA analyses, and associated metadata file. This work was done using existing R programs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part III: Variability

Abstract Daily expected wind power production from operating wind farms across North America are used to evaluate capacity factors (CF) computed using simulation output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and to condition statistical models linking atmospheric conditions to electricity production. In Parts I and II of this work, we focus on making projections of annual energy production and the occurrence of electrical production drought. Here, we extend evaluation of the CF projections for sites in the Northeast, Midwest, southern Great Plains (SGP), and southwest U.S. coast (SWC) using statewide wind-generated electricity supply to the grid. We then quantify changes in the time scales of CF variability and the seasonality. Currently, wind-generated electricity is lowest in summer in each region except SWC, which causes a substantial mismatch with electricity demand. While electricity of residential heating may shift demand, research presented here suggests that summertime CF are likely to decline, potentially exacerbating the offset between seasonal peak power production and current load. The reduction in summertime CF is manifest for all regions except the SGP and appears to be linked to a reduction in synoptic-scale variability. Using fulfillment of 50% and 90% of annual energy production to quantify interannual variability, it is shown that wind power production exhibits higher (earlier fulfillment) or lower (later fulfillment) production for periods of over 10–30 years as a result of the action of internal climate modes. Significance Statement Electrical power system reassessment and redesign may be needed to aid efficient increased use of variable renewables in the generation of electricity. Currently wind-generated electricity in many regions of North America exhibits a minimum in summertime and hence is not well synchronized with electricity demand, which tends to be maximized in summer. Future projections indicate evidence of reductions in wind power during summer that would amplify this offset. However, electrification of heating may lead to increased wintertime demand, which would lead to greater synchronization.

Coburn, Jacob↗

Unraveling the implications of finite specimen size on the interpretation of dynamic experiments for polycrystalline aluminum through direct numerical simulations

Normal and Pressure-shear plate impact (NPI and PSPI) experiments are popular experimental techniques for studying the mean-field macroscopic behavior of polycrystalline metals under high-rate dynamic loading. However, since both configurations rely upon geometry for subjecting the specimen to high strain rates, these experiments often involve a limited specimen size. Moreover, because of the inherent heterogeneities present within polycrystalline metals, it is difficult to ascertain if the size of the specimen and/or regions where measurements are made are sufficiently large for making representative inferences about the mean-field macroscopic properties from single-point velocity measurements. In the present study, we quantify the expected measurement variability on observable point measurements in NPI and PSPI experiments by carrying out direct numerical simulations (DNS) of statistically representative polycrystalline microstructures subjected to dynamic compression and compression-shear loading. In particular, we consider the role of specific material heterogeneities (e.g. the grain-to-grain difference in size, crystallographic orientation) on dispersion in the normal and transverse particle velocity records and on local fluctuations in key state variables (e.g. velocity, accumulated plastic strain) by incorporating these effects directly into a representative synthetic microstructure geometry and crystalline description of pure polycrystalline aluminum. The form of the present study is a large parametric investigation, consisting of ten ensembles of one hundred simulations. Each of the thousand simulations reflects a randomly realized synthetic microstructure in one of five cases of decreasing average grain size for the two loading configurations. Our analysis of the DNS results demonstrates that for both of these experimental configurations, the grain size directly correlates with the coefficient of variation (CV) in simulated point measurements, showing a convergent decrease in CV to zero (i.e. particle velocity record approaches the mean-field value) with decreasing grain size. Remarkably, the magnitude of variations in the particle velocity record is shown to be largest where the deviatoric stresses are most significant. In the case of NPI, this occurs at the elastic and plastic wavefront, whereas, in the case of PSPI, the magnitude of fluctuations are approximately constant throughout the experimental window time. The reasoning for the scatter in particle velocity due to the heterogeneous microstructure is demonstrated to be dependent on the mechanisms for accommodating deformation and on the interaction of reflection waves generated at sites of heterogeneities occurring at the scale of grains. Lastly, we develop a power-law description for the magnitude of scattering versus characteristic length, which provides a statistical framework for assessing the required number of grains per characteristic specimen dimension for minimizing scatter within these two experimental configurations (NPI, PSPI).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗

srlife : A software tool for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar receivers. Part II – Ceramic receivers

As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat demands, high-temperature metallic materials, including nickel-based superalloys, face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. Advanced ceramics offer a promising alternative due to their superior high-temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the performance of ceramic components requires a fundamentally different approach from that used for metallic components. This Part II of a two-part paper describes the integration of ceramic statistical failure models within srlife – an open-source tool for predicting the life of high-temperature CSP receivers. These models account for the inherent variability in ceramic strength, as well as the effects of subcritical crack growth (SCG) under high temperature cyclic loads. Here, the paper includes an example problem that demonstrate the process of evaluating ceramic receivers using srlife. Part I details the life estimation process for metallic receivers (i.e. creep-fatigue life) along with input and output data structure, thermohydraulic analysis, and structural analysis. The complete tool is available as open-source software at https://github.com/srlife-project/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). By supporting both ceramic and metallic receiver analyses, srlife facilitates fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs, enabling accurate evaluations of plant efficiency and the economic benefits of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

High temperature ceramic receivers↗

Interstitial hydrogen enhances the mobility of some grain boundaries in tungsten

Segregation of interstitials at a grain boundary (GB) is known to generally lower its mobility. This phenomenon, called 'solute-drag', has important ramifications on the process of recrystallization and microstructural evolution. Here, we present predictions from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations which demonstrate that interstitial hydrogen in tungsten can in fact increase the mobility of some GBs which exhibit shear coupling. Assuming a disconnection-based mechanism, activation energies and pre-factors for disconnection nucleation are predicted from simulations of shear-coupled motion. In GBs where enhanced mobility is predicted, interstitial H reduces both the activation energy and the pre-factor for disconnection nucleation, thus effectively increasing the mobility. For GBs with diminished mobility, MD predicts that presence of interstitial H reduces the pre-factor and, in some cases, increases the activation energy. The reduction in the activation energy inferred from MD simulations are confirmed by nudged elastic band calculations. Temperature-dependent structural transitions are observed for some GBs, and the effect of interstitial H is found to change with the changes in structure. The effect of interstitial H is predicted to be complex and highly variable, providing some plausible explanations for experimental observations on the recrystallization of tungsten in presence of H-loaded plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Flashlamp drive system for a high-energy 10–100 kHz pulse-burst Nd:YAG laser

We present the design of the flashlamp drive system for the NG100 laser, a 1 J/pulse, 10–100 kHz, pulse-burst Nd:YAG laser system being developed for application in a Thomson scattering plasma diagnostic. This flashlamp drive system is under active development, with a prototype now being constructed. The flashlamp drive system is modular, with each module capable of driving a series pair of linear flashlamps. Each drive module contains and is controlled by a dedicated Analog Regulator Controller. Thus each module is independently operable and controllable. This modular approach imposes no intrinsic limit to the number of modules that may be applied to drive the flashlamp pairs in a laser system. Each flashlamp drive module has a switch-regulated topology. An 1800 V main capacitor bank provides 25 kJ of energy storage, while a lower voltage output capacitor bank provides filtering and the initial energy delivered to the flashlamps at the start of the drive pulse. The main bank is recharged after each flashlamp drive pulse. As energy is drawn from the output bank by the flashlamps, an IGBT switching regulator feeds current from the main bank through an inductor to replenish the output capacitor bank. The rate of replenishment is feedback-controlled to maintain a regulated supply of power to the flashlamp load, with a setpoint range of 0.07 to 1.65 MW. An Analog Regulator Controller produces two-state variable pulse width feedback switching of the regulator IGBT. The switching frequency is ≤ 20 kHz, dynamically adjusted to limit ripple of the flashlamp power to ±3% statistical standard deviation of mean. For development or troubleshooting, each module is operable independent of the laser digital control system (microcontroller and FPGA).

Plasma diagnostics - interferometry↗

Scalable bottom-up synthesis of Co-Ni–doped graphene

Introducing heteroatoms into graphene is a powerful strategy to modulate its catalytic, electronic, and magnetic properties. At variance with the cases of nitrogen (N)– and boron (B)–doped graphene, a scalable method for incorporating transition metal atoms in the carbon (C) mesh is currently lacking, limiting the applicative interest of model system studies. This work presents a during-growth synthesis enabling the incorporation of cobalt (Co) alongside nickel (Ni) atoms in graphene on a Ni(111) substrate. Single atoms are covalently stabilized within graphene double vacancies, with a Co load ranging from 0.07 to 0.22% relative to C atoms, controllable by synthesis parameters. Structural characterization involves variable-temperature scanning tunneling microscopy and ab initio calculations. The Co- and Ni-codoped layer is transferred onto a transmission electron microscopy grid, confirming stability through scanning transmission electron microscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy. This method holds promise for applications in spintronics, gas sensing, electrochemistry and catalysis, and potential extension to graphene incorporation of similar metals.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Developing a Power Plant Suitability Model for the Energy Zones Mapping Tool

This report provides an example of designing, developing, and running a power plant suitability model in the Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZMT), a public, web-based mapping tool with a large spatial database focused on energy infrastructure, energy resources, and related siting factors. The example focuses on natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants, which have several unique and interesting characteristics. NGCC plants typically provide peaking power to the electrical grid. Such plants can be started or stopped relatively quickly and are often used to supplement base load plants (such as nuclear or coal) during times of peak electrical consumption or to counterbalance lulls in variable power generation (such as wind or solar). Due to these and other factors, NGCC plants have been projected to increase in number under energy planning studies such as Hadley et al. The scope of the Hadley et. al. study is the Eastern Interconnection (EI), the electrical transmission grid serving much of the United States and Canada east of the Rocky Mountains. Results in the study are organized according to 22 Multi-region National—North American Electricity and Environment Model (NEEM) regions within the EI. NGCC plants usually have lower water requirements than other thermoelectric power plants they may replace; therefore, they are expected to have an interesting role in reducing the overall water requirements of energy generation.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Field Validation of Innovative Air-Source Heat Pumps for Cold-Climate Heating Applications

Air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) have historically found application in milder climates in the United States (US). Their application in cold climates has been hindered by reduced performance as outdoor temperatures fall below freezing and the need for backup or auxiliary electric resistance heaters to meet peak heating loads. Recent advances in cold-climate air-source heat pumps (ccASHPs) with features such as variable-speed compressors, multistage systems, and highly optimized thermal design have improved performance by increasing the coefficient of performance (COP), low-ambient-temperature capacity, and heating seasonal performance factor (HSPF) dramatically. Despite their benefits, ccASHPs are still not widely prescribed for cold climate conditions. This is due in part to a lack of verified, demonstrated performance and analysis in cold climates. Ultimately, high-efficiency ccASHPs play a key role in emerging energy/grid renovation efforts in addition to their potential energy savings and avoided carbon emissions, but their actual performance in various cold climate field settings must be better understood. The primary objective of this project was to measure the in-field performance of variable-capacity air-source heat pumps in cold climates with the goal of enabling the development of field-based performance maps. Specifically, the study looked at how the heat pumps operated in the field, the frequency of cycling, the frequency of defrost events, and the time spent in each mode of operation. The results are intended to be used by DOE to inform research and development of energy-efficient equipment and to develop guidelines for optimizing primary energy savings when using air-source heat pumps in heating-dominated regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Techno-Economic and Deployment Analysis of Fossil Fuel-Based Power Generation with Integrated Energy Storage

Most existing coal-fired power plants were designed for sustained operation at full load to maximize efficiency, reliability, and revenues. Depending on plant type and design, these plants can adjust output within a fixed range in response to plant or market conditions. The need for flexibility driven by increased penetration of variable and non-dispatchable power generation such as wind and solar is shifting traditional mission profile of thermoelectric power plants in three ways: more frequent shutdowns when market or grid conditions warrant, more aggressive load ramp rates (rate of output change), and lower minimum sustainable load, which provides a wider operating range and helps avoid costly plant shutdowns. The recent studies have shown that flexibility of a coal-fired power plant can be improved by the energy storage. The objective of this project was to analyze a set of energy storage options (technologies) and determine their impact on flexibility and economics of a representative coal-fired power plant. The effect of five Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) integrated with a coal power plant on plant flexibility and economics was investigated in this study. The results obtained in this project and presented in this report showed that ESS integrated with a thermal power plant improves plant flexibility and participation in the Energy and Ancillary Services markets and also improves plant financial performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Impact of system parameters and geospatial variables on the reliability of residential systems with PV and energy storage

A reliable power supply is the foundation of modern society, enabling technologies used to function within a society. Residential systems are places where the end users directly consume power, enabling technologies to sustain life. With the emergence of behind-the-meter resources, the end-users have some control over power supply reliability. The intermittency and variability of these resources impact residential system reliability. In this work, we study the reliability performance of a grid-supplemented residential system with behind-the-meter Distributed Energy Resources(DER) subject to various system parameters and geospatial variables. We propose a multistate reliability model for the behind-the-meter microinverter-based Photo Voltaic (PV) system and integrated inverter-based energy storage (ES) system. A sequential Monte Carlo method is then presented to evaluate the reliability indices for the residential system with behind-the-meter DERs as the main supply and the grid as the backup. The sequential Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the reliability performance of the residential model at the top 100 populous counties of the United States, where actual load and solar irradiance data at the counties is used. In the analysis, the sensitivity of indices to system parameters such as DER size and the sensitivity of the indices to climate zone and gross horizontal irradiation (GHI), which affects the load conditions and the PV output of the residential system, is performed. The analysis results show that the system parameters and the geospatial variables significantly impact the residential system’s reliability. The insights from this analysis will be of immense value to the distribution system planners to provide zone-specific guidelines for DER system sizing and toward the evolution of utility business models. Finally, the methodology developed can be used to extend the analysis to other locations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impacts of Renewable and Storage Technologies on Resource Adequacy

This presentation kicked off the 2020 Austin Electricity Conference, Panel 1: Impacts of Low-Carbon Technologies on Resource Adequacy. This short presentation provided a brief introduction to resource adequacy and then highlighted a few illustrative examples for how increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy and storage is changing how we think about and model resources adequacy. Key themes were how all hours of the year matter (with particular importance on peak net load instead of peak load) and how greater operational detail needs to be included in resource adequacy modeling.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Modeling Exhaust-Generated Aerodynamic Pressure Loads on Airfield Matting Repair Systems

Airfield matting systems are commonly used for rapid repair of damaged runways to facilitate continuity of critical operations. Under normal service conditions, matting repair systems are subject not only to wheel loads exerted by airfield traffic but also to aerodynamic pressure loads resulting from high-speed, turbulent exhaust plumes produced by jets during taxi and take-off. Matting systems employed by the U.S. Air Force have been tested with respect to wheel loads, but probabilities of failure because of pressure loads produced by jet exhaust have not yet been established. This study presents a numerical approach for preliminary estimation of worst-case matting anchor forces resulting from exhaust-generated pressure loads. Using a two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model, system behavior is evaluated by means of a parametric study of six system variables, of which the most significant are: (1) distance between engine and matting, (2) depth of cavity openings at matting edges, and (3) engine exhaust velocity. The results demonstrate that matting systems are likely to experience net uplift in typical service scenarios, driven by the combined effects of flow separation and cavity pressurization. Worst-case anchor pull-out forces, computed according to a tributary-area approach, are estimated to fall in the range of 130 lb (581 N) to 979 lb (4,350 N), depending on assumed load-sharing behavior among anchors and the size of the repair site. Field testing of instrumented matting systems during jet taxi and take-off sequences is recommended as the best next step toward understanding system behavior.

Engineering↗

Modifications to Solar Titan-130 Combustion Systems for Efficient, High Turndown Operation

The project team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) investigated methods to allow higher efficiency part-load operation of a Solar Titan 130 gas turbine. The objective was to develop a low-emission combustion system capable of sustaining combustion and avoiding lean blowout during high turndown operation, which would allow the gas turbine to operate as efficiently as possible at part load. Currently, electric utility markets are beginning to experience substantial increases in renewable energy generation. Some of these renewable energy sources have highly variable output in an uncontrolled manner. In order to maintain grid stability, there is a need for power plants to ramp up power to the grid rapidly to make up for drops in renewable generation. This is often termed spinning reserve, but the size of this reserve may need to increase as renewable penetration into the electric utility market increases. Small combined heat and power (CHP) power plants provide a promising option for meeting this spinning reserve requirement. In order to operate in spinning reserve while still meeting the heat requirements for the CHP, the gas turbine needs to operate efficiently at very low loads. Efficient, high turndown operations in this engine are limited by the lean flammability limit of the premixed combustion system. This project sought enhance the lean operability range of the Titan 130 combustor. First, the project team participated in a brainstorming activity and ultimately selected two concepts to explore: fuel augmentation with hydrogen (H2) to improve the stability at lean operating conditions and modifications to the fuel nozzle to improve the emissions performance at lean operating conditions. Analytical and laboratory investigations were accomplished by UCI to investigate the efficacy of H2 addition at improving lean blow out (LBO) limits and the resulting emissions. These investigations used a variety of chemical reactor network (CRN) and CFD models, validated against laboratory data, to model the impact of H 2 and inform the experimental efforts accomplished by SwRI and Solar. Ultimately, both the CRN and CFD models yielded generally good agreement with the experimental data below a particular temperature threshold. Atmospheric tests of a full-scale T130 annular combustor were performed at SwRI facilities in San Antonio, Texas, to investigate the use of H 2 addition. For these tests, the T130 combustion system remained largely unchanged; minor modifications were performed to the fuel ducting to allow for the safe use of H 2 . The test ultimately demonstrated that the addition of H 2 to the fuel mixture significantly increased the AFR ratio at which the combustor could operate. This improvement to the LBO limit should allow for less use of compressor bleed and less throttling needed by the inlet guide vanes (IGV). This in turn could result in more efficient operation of the gas turbine at lower load points. The second modification explored in this work was a direct modification to the T130 injector. The project team hypothesized that modifications to the pilot of the T130 injector could provide lower emissions at high turn-down operations. These modifications were manufactured and explored by the team at Solar. High pressure rig tests, originally slated to occur at SwRI, were ultimately accomplished by Solar to maintain overall project budget and mitigate cost growth attributable to supply chain issues and inflation. The pressurized rig tests ultimately showed that the SwRI Project No. 18.24153 - DE-EE0008415 Page 2 Final Technical Report January 24, 2024 modifications did not significantly alter the performance of the combustion system at the high turn-down conditions; both the modified injectors and the baseline configuration exhibited elevated emissions comparted to the full-load operating condition. A final set of studies performed by EPRI investigated the benefit-cost of flexible CHP as well as a grid interconnection study for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid. These studies considered: traditional CHP with no spinning reserve available for on-demand grid support, 50% flexible CHP where 50% of the machine’s capacity is consumed by on-site baseload operations while providing an additional 50% capacity for on-demand grid support, and 70% flexible CHP where 70% of capacity is consumed on-site by baseload operations and 30% is available for on-demand grid support. In all cases, the analyses showed a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than unity implying a positive net present value for all configurations. However, the traditional CHP showed the most economic benefit. These results are sensitive to several factors, many of which are not fully known and may vary over time. Thus site owners must be convinced that taking up the increased costs and risks from flexible CHP would be worth implementing. As the grid in California and across the country transition to incorporate larger renewable energy generation, flexible CHP can provide much needed operating reserves and dispatchability. Alternative fuel options, such as hydrogen blending and biofuels, may also lower carbon intensities of CHP. Flexible CHP should be examined in the evolving market to understand innovative business models, changes market rules and services, and new technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Understanding Hailstone Temporal Variability and Contributing Factors over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Hailstones are a natural hazard that pose a significant threat to property and are responsible for significant economic losses each year in the United States. Detailed understanding of their characteristics is essential to mitigate their impact. Identifying the dynamic and physical factors contributing to hail formation and hailstone sizes is of great importance to weather and climate prediction and policymakers. In this study, we have analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of severe hail occurrences over the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP) states from 2004 to 2016 using two hail datasets: hail reports from the Storm Prediction Center and the newly developed radar-retrieved maximum expected size of hail (MESH). It is found that severe and significant severe hail occurrences have a considerable year-to-year temporal variability in the SGP region. The interannual variabilities have a strong correspondence with sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern Gulf of Mexico and there is no outlier. The year 2016 is identified as an outlier for the correlations with both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and aerosol loading. The correlations with ENSO and aerosol loading are not statistically robust to inclusion of the outlier 2016. Statistical analysis without the outlier 2016 shows that 1) aerosols that may be mainly from northern Mexico have the largest correlation with hail interannual variability among the three factors and 2) meteorological covariation does not significantly contribute to the high correlation. These analyses warrant further investigations of aerosol impacts on hail occurrence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Load Deflection Data (LDDATA)

The current data set is load deflection data (Stress vs strain for compression stress and stress vs elongation for tension stress) from a material test. The goal of the test was to characterize this rubber-like material by looking at different variables: sample creation process, anisotropy, temperature, etc. The data will be used with the Texas A&M Online Research Experience for Undergraduates (O-REU) program. This program is joint with LANL. The student is not an official LANL student so they will not be able to access data and documents on the yellow. The load deflection data set is unclassified and will be sent to the student for analysis. Analysis will include curve fitting, scalar value analysis (stiffness, toughness, etc.) and analysis of variance to determine what variables statistically affect the response while correcting for covariates (temperature soak time and humidity). Data will be stored as Matlab structs and as HDF5 files. Same data, different formats.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗