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At least 343 records · Page 19

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Study of the Kinetics of the CO Oxidation Catalyst in a Human Spaceflight Fire Cartridges as a Method to Understand and Predict Performance

Fire Cartridges (FC) are an integral part of fire response on ISS, Orion and Gateway. When a pair of FCs are integrated with an Emergency Mask, they can be used to provide safe breathing air on these vehicles in a post-fire environment. The FCs have two primary mechanisms for removing contaminants from the air, an activated carbon (AC) bed which adsorbs the majority of fire byproducts, and a catalyst bed consisting of gold nanoparticles supported on iron oxide which oxidized CO to CO2 under near ambient conditions. While the FC catalyst has proven its ability to convert CO under relevant conditions, this paper attempts to address the apparent inconsistent performance of the catalyst seen in testing. Numerous variables effect the performance of the catalyst, including but not limited to: reaction environment, reactant gas composition, inert gas composition, catalyst age, and catalyst lot. This paper discusses the importance of these variables and attempts a fundamental mechanistic explanation for the effects of each variable. The fundamental mechanisms are then used to establish the magnitude of expected performance variability, which were validated against real test data of flight quality FCs.

Fire Cartridge↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Study of the Kinetics of the CO Oxidation Catalyst in a Human Spaceflight Fire Cartridges as a Method to Understand and Predict Performance

Fire Cartridge↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Impact of ARM on Climate Modeling

Climate models are among humanity's most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability, and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of the Earth down to one hundred kilometers or smaller, and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. The atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). In an AGCM, calculations are done on a three-dimensional grid, which in some of today's climate models consists of several million grid cells. For each grid cell, about a dozen variables are time-stepped as the model integrates forward from its initial conditions. These so-called prognostic variables have special importance because they are the only things that a model remembers from one time step to the next; everything else is recreated on each time step by starting from the prognostic variables and the boundary conditions. The prognostic variables typically include information about the mass of dry air, the temperature, the wind components, water vapor, various condensed-water species, and at least a few chemical species such as ozone. A good way to understand how climate models work is to consider the lengthy and complex process used to develop one. Lets imagine that a new AGCM is to be created, starting from a blank piece of paper. The model may be intended for a particular class of applications, e.g., high-resolution simulations on time scales of a few decades. Before a single line of code is written, the conceptual foundation of the model must be designed through a creative envisioning that starts from the intended application and is based on current understanding of how the atmosphere works and the inventory of mathematical methods available.

atmospheric circulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Observational Constraints Reduce Model Spread but Not Uncertainty in Global Wetland Methane Emission Estimates

The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH 4 source, estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH 4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH 4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH 4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH 4 year −1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH 4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.

Kuang-Yu Chang↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kinematic Variables and Feature Engineering for Particle Phenomenology

Kinematic variables have been playing an important role in collider phenomenology, as they expedite discoveries of new particles by separating signal events from unwanted background events and allow for measurements of particle properties such as masses, couplings, spins, etc. For the past 10 years, an enormous number of kinematic variables have been designed and proposed, primarily for the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, allowing for a drastic reduction of high-dimensional experimental data to lower-dimensional observables, from which one can readily extract underlying features of phase space and develop better-optimized data-analysis strategies. We review these recent developments in the area of phase space kinematics, summarizing the new kinematic variables with important phenomenological implications and physics applications. We also review recently proposed analysis methods and techniques specifically designed to leverage the new kinematic variables. As machine learning is nowadays percolating through many fields of particle physics including collider phenomenology, we discuss the interconnection and mutual complementarity of kinematic variables and machine learning techniques. We finally discuss how the utilization of kinematic variables originally developed for colliders can be extended to other high-energy physics experiments including neutrino experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1982

System albedo as sensed by satellites - Its definition and variability

System albedo, an important climatological and environmental parameter, is considered. Some of the problems and assumptions involved in evaluating albedo from satellite data are discussed. Clear-sky and cloud albedos over the United Kingdom and parts of northwest Europe are treated. Consideration is given to the spectral, temporal, and spatial variations and the effect of averaging. The implications of these results for those using and archiving albedo values and for future monitoring of system albedo are discussed. Normalization is of especial importance since this correction alters many albedo values. The pronounced difference in spectral albedo of the two visible channels reemphasizes the problem of attempting to calculate integrated albedo values from meteorological satellite data. The assumption of isotropic reflection is seen to be invalid, hindering the computation of accurate albedo values.

Hughes, N. A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Characterizing the Relationships Among Lightning and Storm Parameters: Lightning as a Proxy Variable

We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.

Goodman, S. J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Crack tip microplasticity mediated by microstructure gradients

Abstract Traditional fracture theories infer damage at cracks (local field) by surveying loading conditions away from cracks (far field). This approach has been successful in predicting ductile fracture, but it normally assumes isotropic and homogeneous materials. However, myriads of manufacturing procedures induce heterogeneous microstructural gradients that can affect the accuracy of traditional fracture models. This work presents a microstructure‐sensitive finite element approach to explore the shielding effects of grain size and crystallographic orientation gradients on crack tip microplasticity and blunting. A dislocation density‐based crystal plasticity model conveys texture evolution, grain size effects, and directional hardening by computing the constraint from dislocation structures. The results demonstrate that the microstructure can act as a buffer between the local and far fields that affects the crack tip microplasticity variability. For nominal opening loading, grain size and texture affect the local ductility and induce a non‐negligible multiaxial plastic deformation. Furthermore, driving forces based on measuring displacements away from the crack tip are less affected by the microstructure, which suggests that traditional experimental methods smear out important crack tip variability.

Castelluccio, Gustavo M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Logistic Risk Model for the Unique Effects of Inherent Aerobic Capacity on (+)G(sub z) Tolerance Before and After Simulated Weightlessness

Small sample size (n less than 1O) and inappropriate analysis of multivariate data have hindered previous attempts to describe which physiologic and demographic variables are most important in determining how long humans can tolerate acceleration. Data from previous centrifuge studies conducted at NASA/Ames Research Center, utilizing a 7-14 d bed rest protocol to simulate weightlessness, were included in the current investigation. After review, data on 25 women and 22 men were available for analysis. Study variables included gender, age, weight, height, percent body fat, resting heart rate, mean arterial pressure, Vo(sub 2)max and plasma volume. Since the dependent variable was time to greyout (failure), two contemporary biostatistical modeling procedures (proportional hazard and logistic discriminant function) were used to estimate risk, given a particular subject's profile. After adjusting for pro-bed-rest tolerance time, none of the profile variables remained in the risk equation for post-bed-rest tolerance greyout. However, prior to bed rest, risk of greyout could be predicted with 91% accuracy. All of the profile variables except weight, MAP, and those related to inherent aerobic capacity (Vo(sub 2)max, percent body fat, resting heart rate) entered the risk equation for pro-bed-rest greyout. A cross-validation using 24 new subjects indicated a very stable model for risk prediction, accurate within 5% of the original equation. The result for the inherent fitness variables is significant in that a consensus as to whether an increased aerobic capacity is beneficial or detrimental has not been satisfactorily established. We conclude that tolerance to +Gz acceleration before and after simulated weightlessness is independent of inherent aerobic fitness.

Ludwig, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Abstract Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOCconnection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. TherTIOindex yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to theAMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-basedAMOCproxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes ofrTIOtemperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that theAMOCproxy index lags simulated mid-latitudeAMOCvariations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connectingAMOCvariations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internalrTIOvariations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor ofAMOCchanges with important implications forAMOCdynamics and predictability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of the U.S. economy to oil prices controlling for domestic production and imports

This paper investigates the sensitivity of U.S. economic performance to oil price changes, accounting for changes in the domestic petroleum supply-demand balance over the last decade. Herein, a non-linear (asymmetric) autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is used to estimate the U.S. GDP elasticity with respect to the oil price, controlling for oil production, consumption and imports, and macroeconomic variables. The positive and negative components of the oil price both have statistically significant long-run impacts on the real U.S. GDP. The parameter estimates imply that a 1% positive and permanent oil price shock, all else the same, would have a long-run impact of –0.045% on the U.S. economy (an elasticity of –0.045), but short-run parameters on the positive oil price terms are not significant at the 10% level. The long-run parameter on the negative oil price component term implies an elasticity of –0.034. Thus, controlling for domestic U.S. oil production and oil trade, the long-run oil price elasticity of the U.S. GDP remains within the range of estimates from previous studies. The results also show that domestic oil production and consumption have short-run impacts on the U.S. GDP. The potential extent of interactions among these variables, and implications for the net economic impacts, under an oil price shock are subjects of future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1988

The GISS global climate-middle atmosphere model. II - Model variability due to interactions between planetary waves, the mean circulation and gravity wave drag

The variability which arises in the GISS Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model on two time scales is reviewed: interannual standard deviations, derived from the five-year control run, and intraseasonal variability as exemplified by statospheric warnings. The model's extratropical variability for both mean fields and eddy statistics appears reasonable when compared with observations, while the tropical wind variability near the stratopause may be excessive possibly, due to inertial oscillations. Both wave 1 and wave 2 warmings develop, with connections to tropospheric forcing. Variability on both time scales results from a complex set of interactions among planetary waves, the mean circulation, and gravity wave drag. Specific examples of these interactions are presented, which imply that variability in gravity wave forcing and drag may be an important component of the variability of the middle atmosphere.

Rind, D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deciphering the shifting role of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers on moss decomposition in peatlands over a 5-year period

Bryophytes are largely responsible for globally significant carbon accumulation in peatland ecosystems. This accumulation is primarily caused by the slow decomposition of these mosses, which can be attributed to a combination of intrinsic (chemical) characteristics of decaying mosses and extrinsic (environmental) influences. Here we investigated the importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of moss decomposition in peatlands and hypothesized that the early stages of decay will be driven primarily by intrinsic characteristics, while extrinsic drivers will become more important in the later phases of decomposition. We tested this hypothesis by placing litterbags of three moss types (Sphagnum divinum, Sphagnum angustifolium/fallax and Polytrichum sp.) into hummock and hollow microtopographies in a bog and a lawn microtopography in a nearby poor fen in northern Minnesota, USA. Decomposition was measured over a 5-year period and confirmed our hypothesis; while intrinsic and extrinsic variables were both important in driving decay rates over time, decay in the first year was primarily predicted by litter type, while extrinsic influences (e.g. peat temperature, moisture, nutrient limitation) that varied at peatland and microtopographic scales became more important by year 5. Though the nutrient (i.e. nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]) content of decaying mosses did not explain the variation in decay rates among litter types, analysis of N:P in moss litter suggested that litter-decaying microorganisms became increasingly P-limited over time. The majority of litter decomposition studies in peatlands are generally of short duration (< 3 years). Our study suggests that longer-term studies are needed to reveal the roles of multiple drivers of moss decay. Improving the mechanistic understanding of decomposition processes in peatlands will be critical to developing more robust representations of peatlands and their ecosystem processes in carbon and climate models.

29 poor fen↗

NASA NTRS2015

Causes of the 2011-14 California Drought

The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Nino event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Nina event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west-cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

California Drought↗

NASA NTRS1995

Cascade Optimization Strategy Maximizes Thrust for High-Speed Civil Transport Propulsion System Concept

The design of a High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) air-breathing propulsion system for multimission, variable-cycle operations was successfully optimized through a soft coupling of the engine performance analyzer NASA Engine Performance Program (NEPP) to a multidisciplinary optimization tool COMETBOARDS that was developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The design optimization of this engine was cast as a nonlinear optimization problem, with engine thrust as the merit function and the bypass ratios, r-values of fans, fuel flow, and other factors as important active design variables. Constraints were specified on factors including the maximum speed of the compressors, the positive surge margins for the compressors with specified safety factors, the discharge temperature, the pressure ratios, and the mixer extreme Mach number. Solving the problem by using the most reliable optimization algorithm available in COMETBOARDS would provide feasible optimum results only for a portion of the aircraft flight regime because of the large number of mission points (defined by altitudes, Mach numbers, flow rates, and other factors), diverse constraint types, and overall poor conditioning of the design space. Only the cascade optimization strategy of COMETBOARDS, which was devised especially for difficult multidisciplinary applications, could successfully solve a number of engine design problems for their flight regimes. Furthermore, the cascade strategy converged to the same global optimum solution even when it was initiated from different design points. Multiple optimizers in a specified sequence, pseudorandom damping, and reduction of the design space distortion via a global scaling scheme are some of the key features of the cascade strategy. HSCT engine concept, optimized solution for HSCT engine concept. A COMETBOARDS solution for an HSCT engine (Mach-2.4 mixed-flow turbofan) along with its configuration is shown. The optimum thrust is normalized with respect to NEPP results. COMETBOARDS added value in the design optimization of the HSCT engine.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stand and environmental conditions drive functional shifts associated with mesophication in eastern US forests

There is a growing body of evidence that mesic tree species are increasing in importance across much of the eastern US. This increase is often observed in tandem with a decrease in the abundance and importance of species considered to be better adapted to disturbance and drier conditions (e.g., Quercus species). Concern over this transition is related to several factors, including the potential that this transition is self-reinforcing (termed “mesophication”), will result in decreased resiliency of forests to a variety of disturbances, and may negatively impact ecosystem functioning, timber value, and wildlife habitat. Evidence for shifts in composition provide broad-scale support for mesophication, but we lack information on the fine-scale factors that drive the associated functional changes. Understanding this variability is particularly important as managers work to develop site-and condition-specific management practices to target stands or portions of the landscape where this transition is occurring or is likely to occur in the future. To address this knowledge gap and identify forests that are most susceptible to mesophication (which we evaluate as a functional shift to less drought or fire tolerant, or more shade tolerant, forests), we used data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program to determine what fine-scale factors impact the rate (change through time) and degree (difference between the overstory and midstory) of change in eastern US forests. We found that mesophication varies along stand and environmental gradients, but this relationship depended on the functional trait examined. For example, shade and drought tolerance suggest mesophication is greatest at sites with more acidic soils, while fire tolerance suggests mesophication increases with soil pH. Mesophication was also generally more pronounced in older stands, stands with more variable diameters, and in wetter sites, but plots categorized as “hydric” were often highly variable. Our results provide evidence that stand-scale conditions impact current and potential future changes in trait conditions and composition across eastern US forests. We provide a starting point for managers looking to prioritize portions of the landscape most at risk and developing treatments to address the compositional and functional changes associated with mesophication.

Woodbridge, Margaret↗