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DOE OSTI2023

Computational framework for modeling of physical process

Techniques, systems, and devices are described for providing a computational frame for estimating high-dimensional stochastic behaviors. In one exemplary aspect, a method for performing numerical estimation includes receiving a set of measurements of a stochastic behavior. The set of correlated measurements follows a non-standard probability distribution and is non-linearly correlated. Also, a non-linear relationship exists between a set of system variables that describes the stochastic behavior and a corresponding set of measurements. The method includes determining, based on the set of measurements, a numerical model of the stochastic behavior. The numerical model comprises a feature space comprising non-correlated features corresponding to the stochastic behavior. The non-correlated features have a dimensionality of M and the set of measurements has a dimensionality of N, M being smaller than N. The method includes generating a set of approximated system variables corresponding to the set of measurements based on the numerical model.

Chen, Xiao↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational framework for modeling of physical process

Chen, Xiao↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Rare Earth Element Potential in Produced and Geothermal Waters of the United States via Emergent Self-Organizing Maps

This work applies emergent self-organizing map (ESOM) techniques, a form of machine learning, in the multidimensional interpretation and prediction of rare earth element (REE) abundance in produced and geothermal waters in the United States. Visualization of the variables in the ESOM trained using the input data shows that each REE, with the exception of Eu, follows the same distribution patterns and that no single parameter appears to control their distribution. Cross-validation, using a random subsample of the starting data and only using major ions, shows that predictions are generally accurate to within an order of magnitude. Using the same approach, an abridged version of the U.S. Geological Survey Produced Waters Database, Version 2.3 (which includes both data from produced and geothermal waters) was mapped to the ESOM and predicted values were generated for samples that contained enough variables to be effectively mapped. Results show that in general, produced and geothermal waters are predicted to be enriched in REEs by an order of magnitude or more relative to seawater, with maximum predicted enrichments in excess of 1000-fold. Cartographic mapping of the resulting predictions indicates that maximum REE concentrations exceed values in seawater across the majority of geologic basins investigated and that REEs are typically spatially co-associated. The factors causing this co-association were not determined from ESOM analysis, but based on the information currently available, REE content in produced and geothermal waters is not directly controlled by lithology, reservoir temperature, or salinity.

Engle, Mark A. (ORCID:0000000152587374)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Shifting groundwater fluxes in bedrock fractures: Evidence from stream water radon and water isotopes

Geologic features (e.g., fractures and alluvial fans) can play an important role in the locations and volumes of groundwater discharge and degree of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions. However, the role of these features in controlling GW-SW dynamics and streamflow generation processes are not well constrained. GW-SW interactions and streamflow generation processes are further complicated by variability in precipitation inputs from summer and fall monsoon rains, as well as declines in snowpack and changing melt dynamics driven by warming temperatures. Using high spatial and temporal resolution radon and water stable isotope sampling and a 1D groundwater flux model, we evaluated how groundwater contributions and GW-SW interactions varied along a stream reach impacted by fractures (fractured-zone) and below the fractured hillslope (non-fractured zone) in Coal Creek, a Colorado River headwater stream affected by summer monsoons. During early summer, groundwater contributions from the fractured zone dominated, but declined throughout the summer. Groundwater contributions from the non-fractured zone were constant throughout the summer and became proportionally more important later in the summer. We hypothesize that groundwater in the non-fractured zone is dominantly sourced from a high-storage alluvial fan at the base of a tributary that is connected to Coal Creek throughout the summer and provides consistent groundwater influx. Water isotope data revealed that Coal Creek responds quickly to incoming precipitation early in the summer, and summer precipitation becomes more important for streamflow generation later in the summer. We quantified the change in catchment dynamic storage and found it negatively related to stream water isotope values, and positively related to modeled groundwater discharge and the ratio of fractured zone to non-fractured zone groundwater. Importantly, we interpret these relationships as declining hydrologic connectivity throughout the summer leading to late summer streamflow supported predominantly by shallow flow paths, with variable response to drying from geologic features based on their storage. As groundwater becomes more important for sustaining summer flows, quantifying local geologic controls on groundwater inputs and their response to variable moisture conditions may become critical for accurate predictions of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning approach for clinker quality prediction and nonlinear model predictive control design for a rotary cement kiln

Abstract Cement manufacturing is energy‐intensive (5Gj/t) and comprises a significant portion of the energy footprint of concrete systems. Incorporating modern monitoring, simulation and control systems will allow lower energy use, lower environmental impact, and lower costs of this widely used construction material. One of the goals of the CESMII roadmap project on the Smart Manufacturing of Cement included developing an analytical process model for clinker quality that includes the chemistry of the kiln feed and accounts for critical process variables. This predictive model will be used in nonlinear model predictive control system designed to significantly reduce process energy use while maintaining or improving product quality. In the cement manufacturing plant used in this study, the kiln feed (meal) is tested every 12 h and used to estimate the mineral composition of the cement kiln output (clinker) using the stoichiometry‐based Bogue's model and the expertise of the plant operators. During kiln operation, kiln output (clinker) is sampled and tested every 2 h to measure its chemical and mineral composition. The predicted and measured values of the clinker composition are used by the plant operators to adjust the kiln input stream and the production process characteristics to maintain stable operation and uniform product quality. However, the time delay between prediction and testing, along with inaccuracies inherent in the Bogue's model have made any process changes designed to minimize energy use problematic, especially in‐light of potential clinker quality issues that process changes often pose. A new analytical model that integrates quality information and process operation information has been developed from data collected from 2 years of production from an operating cement facility. To make the model fuel‐type‐independent, consumed heat energy was computed in the model instead of fuel type and amount. A Feedforward Network was trained and tailored from collected data. Many data‐based simulations were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the proposed model and the 5‐fold cross‐validation procedure was used to test the models. The resulting predictive model was shown to have a low root mean square error (MSE) with respect to the estimated clinker mineral composition compared to that using the industry standard “Bogue’ model”. The end goal of this work was to develop a single machine learning tool that allows the use of quality control data and process control variables to improve energy efficiency of the process in a continuous fashion. The proposed nonlinear model predictive control system (NMPC) can generate predicted kiln production characteristics based on manipulated variables in manner that accurately follows the target product quality values. Simulation results also show that the proposed model produced accurate predictions of kiln outputs that fell within the required constraints, while manipulating control variables within typical operational ranges.

Ali, Asem M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anderson acceleration stability in NDA-accelerated k-eigenvalue problems

Anderson acceleration (AA) has been used to improve the stability and convergence rate of multiphysics iterative methods for reactor analysis. Most applications studied assume a tightly converged solution for the different physics problems, and AA is usually applied to state variables like temperature, density, and heat generation rate. In this paper, we study the theoretical performance of AA in NDA-accelerated k-eigenvalue problems. The problems and algorithms studied are simplified from the coupled iteration scheme adopted by MPACT and many other high-fidelity whole-core reactor codes. Compared to previous analyses of AA for these iteration schemes, we study the case with a partially converged neutronics solution and possibly partially converged nonlinear diffusion acceleration (NDA)/coarse mesh finite difference (CMFD) solutions. We observe that the performance of the iteration scheme with AA is very sensitive to the initial guess and is affected by the partially converged CMFD solutions. When the NDA solution is fully converged, using AA cannot achieve the optimal convergence rate in large-sized problems. Conversely, if the NDA solution is partially converged, the iteration scheme with AA can diverge or converge extremely slowly. It is found that the loss of robustness for AA is due to the fact that it is applied to the iterative subspace of state variables rather than the fundamental unknowns of the governing equations. To improve the robustness, the scalar flux should also be considered in the implementation of AA. After considering the residuals of flux, we observe that the stability is regardless of the partial convergence of NDA solutions. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A HPC Theory-Guided Machine Learning Cyberinfrastructure for Communicating Hydrometeorological Data Across Scales

High-resolution predictions of hydrometeorological variables are critical for supporting hydropower generation decisions and flood control at hydroelectric power plants. Traditional climate and hydrologic models rely on the numerical simulation of detailed physical processes. Therefore, running these simulations is time-, labor-, and computation-intensive. Improving the spatial and temporal resolution in these modeling outputs could lead to cubic increases in both the simulation time and computational demands, rendering high-resolution hydrometeorological predictions expensive and impractical. Many past studies apply the super resolution (SR) technique to downscale climate models using deep learners. However, deep learners are deemed “black-boxes,” as their derivation processes from low-resolution outputs to high-resolution outputs are often hidden. Their results are difficult for domain scientists to interpret and validate. Thus, there is a need for an exploratory machine learning approach that can partially integrate domain-specific theory and knowledge into the data-driven mapping process between simulation outputs of different spatial scales. The domain-specific theory and knowledge can be incorporated into the data model through an inductive approach in which process-related environmental variables are used and analyzed as key drivers (i.e., environmental surrogates) to reflect the complex physical processes. Many of these variables, such as land use land cover, soil types, topography, digital elevation, air temperature, and various watershed characteristics, can be directly measured through sensors or remote sensing techniques. Additionally, SR applications that can downscale hydrological and hydrodynamics models to efficiently produce high-resolution (1 m) flood depth grids are still rare. Since the flood depth grid can be used to support critical decisions for flood control operation at hydroelectric power plants, it is crucial to enable an SR-based capability for interpolating high-resolution flood inundation maps.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

2.1.2.403 - Fatigue and Structural Load Analysis and Control for Variable-Geometry Wave Energy Converters (VGWECs)

The VGWEC project will generate and disseminate the foundational knowledge enabling a paradigm shift in the design of wave energy converters (WECs) by adding a geometry control option on top of power-take-off load control. The variable-geometry modules (VGMs) provide control over a WEC's hydrodynamics that can emphasize power absorption or load shedding. Additional load shedding provided by the VGMs is expected to reduce the device structural mass and extend the sea state operating envelope, by limiting peak loading, both contributing towards reducing levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates.

hydrodynamic↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chaotic neural dynamics facilitate probabilistic computations through sampling

Cortical neurons exhibit highly variable responses over trials and time. Theoretical works posit that this variability arises potentially from chaotic network dynamics of recurrently connected neurons. Here, we demonstrate that chaotic neural dynamics, formed through synaptic learning, allow networks to perform sensory cue integration in a sampling-based implementation. We show that the emergent chaotic dynamics provide neural substrates for generating samples not only of a static variable but also of a dynamical trajectory, where generic recurrent networks acquire these abilities with a biologically plausible learning rule through trial and error. Furthermore, the networks generalize their experience in the stimulus-evoked samples to the inference without partial or all sensory information, which suggests a computational role of spontaneous activity as a representation of the priors as well as a tractable biological computation for marginal distributions. These findings suggest that chaotic neural dynamics may serve for the brain function as a Bayesian generative model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction analysis of constituent phases in transition joint between nickel alloy 738LC and a MnFeCoNiCu alloy

Synchrotron x-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis was performed on transition joints between a single-phase MnFeCoNiCu alloy and Ni-base Alloy 738LC to efficiently identify the constituent phases across the interface, with different levels of material intermixing generated by laser-welding with variable power. Here, the intermixing extent was quantified by postmortem energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy mapping. Diffraction-based analyses on complex composition spaces with limited prior data present significant challenges because elemental substitution in both disordered and ordered phases is more extensive than in conventional alloy spaces, which may effectuate relatively large shifts in the observed lattice parameters that convolute the analysis. Therefore, thermodynamic simulations and crystallographic literature data were employed to construct a system-specific diffraction library of twelve prospective phases for the composition space investigated. Subsequently, for predicted disordered cubic phases, statistical hard-sphere models were established to estimate the lattice parameters and predict diffraction peak positions for inclusion in the library. The library was then employed to analyze diffraction profiles measured from the variably intermixed transition joints, with focus on accounting for both high and low-intensity peaks. 99.0 % of diffraction peaks with relative intensity greater than 0.001 were assigned to phases from the system-specific library, exemplifying rigorous peak accounting and indicating that no unexpected phases were present. Up to six of the twelve library phases were experimentally found in the transition joints. The lattice parameters predicted by the statistical hard-sphere model based upon thermodynamic simulations agree reasonably well with the measured values for the disordered FCC matrix phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Untapped Benefits of Porous Liquids for Gas Capture: Low-Energy Regeneration

Current liquid-phase gas capture materials incur high operational costs due to energy-intensive regeneration processes, creating an industrial need for alternative materials that retain engineering benefits while reducing energy requirements. Porous liquids (PLs), liquid-phase materials with permanent internal porosity, have emerged as promising replacements with excellent gas absorption capacity and selectivity. Despite these benefits, evaluation of regeneration in PLs remains rare. In this Perspective, we evaluate the effects of solvent interactions, mass transport, and binding site formation that control PL regeneration. While conventional regeneration methods exist in PLs, the diversity of PL compositions allows for novel regeneration processes including light irradiation via use of photosensitive azobenzene-based cages, isostatic compression to collapse internal pore structures, and localized heating via sonication for gas desorption. In conclusion, the wide variability in porous host materials that generate the internal porosity in PLs facilitates innovative low-energy regeneration pathways, positioning them as a transformative solution in separation technologies.

gas capture↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stacking Fault Induced Symmetry Breaking in van der Waals Nanowires

While traditional ferroelectrics are based on polar crystals in bulk or thin film form, two-dimensional and layered materials can support mechanisms for symmetry breaking between centrosymmetric building blocks, e.g., by creating low-symmetry interfaces in van der Waals stacks. Here, we introduce an approach toward symmetry breaking in van der Waals crystals that relies on the spontaneous incorporation of stacking faults in a nonpolar bulk layer sequence. The concept is realized in nanowires consisting of Se-rich group IV monochalcogenide (GeSe 1–x S x ) alloys, obtained by vapor–liquid–solid growth. The single crystalline wires adopt a layered structure in which the nonpolar A-B bulk stacking along the nanowire axis is interrupted by single-layer stacking faults with local A-A' stacking. Density functional theory explains this behavior by a reduced stacking fault formation energy in GeSe (or Se-rich GeSe 1–x S x alloys). Computations demonstrate that, similar to monochalcogenide monolayers, the inserted A-layers should show a spontaneous electric polarization with a switching barrier consistent with a Curie temperature above room temperature. Second-harmonic generation signals are consistent with a variable density of stacking faults along the wires. Here, our results point to possible routes for designing ferroelectrics via the layer stacking in van der Waals crystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation

The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the ‘tipping year’ Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generation of scalable genuine multipartite Gaussian entanglement with a parametric amplifier network

Genuine multipartite entanglement is a valuable resource in quantum information science, as it exhibits inseparability across all possible bipartitions of a multimode quantum state. The large degree of quantum correlations can be exploited in various quantum information protocols, such as teleportation, dense coding, and quantum interferometry. Here, in this study, we propose a scheme to generate scalable genuine multipartite continuous-variable entangled states of light using a parametric amplifier network. We verify the presence of genuine quadripartite, hexapartite, and octapartite entanglement through a violation of the positive partial transpose criteria. Additionally, we use 𝛼-entanglement of formation to demonstrate the scalability of our approach to an arbitrary number of 2⁢𝑁 genuinely entangled parties by taking advantage of the symmetries present in our scheme.

Kim, Saesun [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Model Predictive Control With Gaussian Wind Direction Preview for Wake Steering

This article addresses the problem of wake steering control for wind farms that explicitly consider the tradeoff between farm-level power generation and yaw duty cycle under variable and uncertain wind conditions. A novel stochastic model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented, which utilizes a stochastic model of the freestream wind field components in a receding horizon framework to compute optimal yaw set points that maximize the expected value of the farm power while constraining the yaw actuation. Different configurations of the algorithm are evaluated using a steady-state wind farm simulator. The proposed stochastic MPC algorithm can plan control actions over a future prediction horizon based on probabilistic estimates of the incoming wind magnitude and direction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗