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At least 343 records · Page 19

Low predictability of energy balance traits and leaf temperature metrics in desert, montane and alpine plant communities

Abstract Leaf energy balance may influence plant performance and community composition. While biophysical theory can link leaf energy balance to many traits and environment variables, predicting leaf temperature and key driver traits with incomplete parameterizations remains challenging. Predicting thermal offsets ( δ , T leaf − T air difference) or thermal coupling strengths ( β , T leaf vs. T air slope) is challenging. We ask: (a) whether environmental gradients predict variation in energy balance traits (absorptance, leaf angle, stomatal distribution, maximum stomatal conductance, leaf area, leaf height); (b) whether commonly measured leaf functional traits (dry matter content, mass per area, nitrogen fraction, δ 13 C, height above ground) predict energy balance traits; and (c) how traits and environmental variables predict δ and β among species. We address these questions with diurnal measurements of 41 species co‐occurring along a 1,100 m elevation gradient spanning desert to alpine biomes. We show that (a) energy balance traits are only weakly associated with environmental gradients and (b) are not well predicted by common functional traits. We also show that (c) δ and β can be partially approximated using interactions among site environment and traits, with a much larger role for environment than traits. The heterogeneity in leaf temperature metrics and energy balance traits challenges larger‐scale predictive models of plant performance under environmental change. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Blonder, Benjamin↗

Emerging Best Practices for Electric Utility Planning with Climate Variability: A Resource for Utilities and Regulators

This report is intended to support electric utilities and regulators as they work together to increase the climate resilience of the power system in the United States. It focuses on best practice methods and examples of conducting utility forecasting with climate change (Section 2) as well as three overlapping types of electric utility planning for climate change: resource planning (Section 3), asset planning (Section 4), and contingency planning (Section 5). This report also addresses data development and access (Section 6), emerging pathways for planning including decision-making under deep uncertainty and storylines approaches (Section 7), regulatory considerations (Section 8), and coordination and innovative funding and cost sharing approaches to planning for climate variability (Section 9).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Observations of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer’s Response to a Solar Eclipse

The atmospheric response to the solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 in North America is investigated with a specific focus on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). We leverage measurements collected during the Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), including Doppler lidars, sonic anemometers, and thermodynamic profiler data to investigate the atmospheric response across sites that experienced partial eclipse conditions with nearly 90% obscuration. Using these measurements, we examine eclipse-induced changes in key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and turbulent fluxes. Most previous eclipse studies have been conducted over land, whereas this study provides new observations for both coastal and marine environments, offering additional insight into eclipse-driven variability in the MABL. The findings confirm a notable decrease in downwelling shortwave radiation during the eclipse, which results in rapid cooling of surface air. The temperature reduction ranges from $1.2^\circ \text {C}$ to $1.4^\circ \text {C}$ in coastal regions and from $0.3^\circ \text {C}$ to $0.5^\circ \text {C}$ over the ocean. This analysis suggests that the MABL’s higher thermal inertia compared to coastal regions moderates the temperature decrease during the eclipse. Wind speed exhibits a more complex behavior, as it is influenced by both the MABL and preexisting synoptic conditions. Although a reduction in wind speed is observable up to approximately 140 m above ground level (AGL) at more inland sites, at other locations closer to the coast, this reduction is constrained to the lowest 100 m AGL. Turbulence parameters retrieved from sonic anemometers, such as turbulence kinetic energy, turbulent heat flux, and friction velocity, decrease during the eclipse at coastal sites, accompanied by a brief transition of atmospheric stability from unstable to neutral or weakly stable conditions. For the open-ocean sites, the variability in turbulence statistics and atmospheric stability is minimal during the occurrence of the eclipse.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Predicted Fracture Tendency of Naturally Occurring Aluminum Surface Coatings under Tensile Loading

Naturally occurring coatings on aluminum metal, such as its oxide or hydroxide, serve to protect the material from corrosion. Understanding the conditions under which these coatings mechanically fail is therefore expected to be an important aspect of predictive models for aluminum component lifetimes. To this end, we develop and apply a molecular dynamics (MD) modeling framework for conducting tension tests that is capable of isolating factors governing the mechanical strength as a function of coating chemistry, defect morphology, and variables associated with the loading path. We consider two representative materials, including γ-Al 2 O 3 and γ-Al(OH) 3 (i.e., oxide and hydroxide), both of which form readily as aluminum surface coatings. Our results indicate that defects have a significant bearing on the strength of aluminum oxide, with grain boundaries serving to reduce the strain at failure from ε zz = 0.300 to 0.219, relative to perfect single crystal. Our simulations also predict that porosity lowers the elastic stiffness and yield strength of the oxide. Relative to perfect crystal, we find porosity factors of 5%, 10% and 20% decrease the yield stress by 26%, 36% and 53%, respectively. MD predicts that perfect hydroxide and oxide single crystal have respective strains at failure of 0.08 and 0.31 under tensile uniaxial strain loading, and that the corresponding yield stresses are respectively 1.6 and 11.1 GPa. These data indicate that the hydroxide is substantially more susceptible to mechanical failure than the oxide. Our results, coupled with literature findings that indicate hot and humid conditions favor formation of hydroxide and defective oxide coatings, indicate the potential for a complicated dependence of aluminum corrosion susceptibility and stress corrosion cracking on aging history.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Convection-permitting hindcasting of diurnal variation of Mei-yu rainfall over East China with a global variable-resolution model

Two sets of 48-hr hindcast experiments for Mei-yu season using non-hydrostatic global variable-resolution model (MPAS-Atmosphere) with regional refinement at 4km resolution (V4km) and uniform 60km resolution (U60km) are first-time conducted to attempt at simulating the Mei-yu rainfall in 2015 over East China. The analysis focuses on the seasonal average of diurnal variation of precipitation amount (PA), intensity (PI), and frequency (PF). Both simulations reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of PA. V4km is more skillful in simulating the spatial distributions and magnitudes of PF and PI. The diurnal cycle of Mei-yu rainfall shows a major early morning peak and a minor afternoon peak, contributed by precipitation during two sub-periods with distinct synoptic circulations. With strong Mei-yu in the first sub-period, the diurnal variation of PA is controlled by nocturnal southwesterly jet. V4km overestimates the morning peak mainly due to its bias in simulating boundary layer inertial oscillation. Although differences in PA between the simulations are small, U60km overestimates PF and underestimates PI. With weak Mei-yu in the second sub-period, the diurnal variation of PA is controlled by both synoptic circulation and local convection. At both resolutions, deviations in the large-scale circulation modulated by a few typhoons lead to positive biases in the morning peak of PA. After removing the typhoon impacts, V4km captures the observed diurnal cycle of PA well, while U60km significantly underestimates PA and PI particularly in the afternoon. Future studies focusing on advancing modeling of southwesterly jet and typhoons may further improve convection permitting simulation of Mei-yu rainfall.

Xu, Mingyue↗

Investigation of methane mass transfer and sorption in Marcellus shale under variable net-stress

Natural gas in shale exists as free and adsorbed gas, subject to prevailing pore pressures and stress conditions. Accordingly, to accurately estimate/predict the shale gas recovery potential, a central requirement is to represent gas transport and sorption behavior under varying stress conditions. The objective of this work is to facilitate the interpretation of laboratory-scale experiments, at relevant conditions, in an attempt to bridge the gap in scales between laboratory- and field-scale observations. We have conducted a series of high-pressure experiments on a full-diameter core sample from the Marcellus shale. These include gas loading (pressure-decay) and depletion (production) experiments with pure methane (CH 4 ) at variable stress conditions to characterize transport and sorption behavior under reservoir-relevant conditions. Here we have formulated and applied a novel integral model for mass transfer and storage in multi-porosity shale systems that allows us to effectively investigate transport and sorption phenomena: We delineate gas transport by interpreting helium (He) pressure-decay experiments and demonstrate how to use the information gained to calculate the relevant transport coefficients of CH 4 and other gases. A separate measurement of the CH 4 sorption isotherm on a smaller sample (a shale cube) was interpreted and combined with the transport description to predict the production behavior of CH 4 from the experiments with the full-diameter core. Our experiments demonstrate that the representation of sorption hysteresis is crucial for predicting and guiding shale gas production: At the end of both gas production experiments, approximately 20% of the initial gas in place remained in the core. Without accounting for sorption hysteresis, our modeling demonstrates that the CH 4 production could be overestimated by 10%. We demonstrate that our integral, triple-porosity model provides an effective approach for the interpretation and prediction of gas transport and sorption behavior during loading and production experiments on shale cores under variable net-stress conditions. In summary, our work combines measurements and modeling of mass transfer and sorption in shales at different scales to validate a characterization approach that facilitates an improved understanding of shale gas production. Furthermore, the triple-porosity model utilized in our work defines a potential pathway for the translation of laboratory-scale experimentation to larger-scale applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ESS-DIVE Reporting Format for Hydrologic Monitoring Data and Metadata

The ESS-DIVE Reporting Format (RF) for Hydrologic Monitoring Data and Metadata was designed for water level, temperature, electrical conductivity, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and pH measured in situ using sensors deployed in water bodies. It can also be applied to a broader suite of variables beyond its original scope. The RF is intended to provide clear and easy guidance to data generators aiming to upload consistent findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) datasets. The RF includes instructions (pdf), a term guide (csv), templates (csv and xlsx), and a list of recommended vocabulary (csv) to equip the data generator with all of the tools needed to successfully apply the RF. There is also a crosswalk to some key data resources and standards (csv). Users should cite this dataset when using the RF but are encouraged to access the RF files on GitHub (https://github.com/ess-dive-community/essdive-hydrologic-monitoring) where the RF documentation is maintained and updated on the ESS-DIVE Community Space GitHub. Questions and suggestions for improvement can be submitted as GitHub issues.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Broadband multiwavelength properties of the archetypal blazar 3C 279 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope campaign

The archetypal blazar 3C 279 hosts a prominent relativistic jet and exhibits strong broadband variability across the electromagnetic spectrum. In April 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observed 3C 279, alongside one of the most extensive quasi-simultaneous multiwavelength (MWL) campaigns ever conducted. With the aim of investigating the physical processes governing 3C 279, we analyzed individual observations and multiband light curves, and constructed a new quasi-simultaneous MWL spectrum. We also performed phenomenological modeling using the turbulent extreme multi-zone (TEMZ) model to constrain the fundamental physical properties of the source. The EHT observations reveal a clear flux increase in the innermost core between April 5 and 11, 2017. Over a broader timescale, radio measurements at longer wavelengths show concurrent enhancements in core flux and polarization around mid-April, coinciding with the ejection of a superluminal knot. Record UV-optical flares with strong polarization variability occurred in late March, followed by gamma-ray activity that declined before the end of the EHT observing period. During this interval, the source remained in a low X-ray state and showed no detectable VHE emission. The TEMZ modeling suggests that the broadband spectrum and variability of 3C 279 can be explained within a jet scenario in which turbulent plasma cells are compressed by a stationary conical shock. However, alternative interpretations, such as magnetic reconnection or a moving shock-in-jet event, remain plausible. This coordinated MWL campaign advances our understanding of the origin of jet and gamma-ray emission in 3C 279, while also providing a comprehensive publicly available dataset that will serve as a valuable reference for future studies.

Principe, G. [Trieste U.; INFN, Trieste; Bologna, ↗

Dynamic crystallography reveals spontaneous anisotropy in cubic GeTe

Cubic energy materials such as thermoelectrics or hybrid perovskite materials are often understood to be highly disordered. In GeTe and related IV–VI compounds, this is thought to provide the low thermal conductivities needed for thermoelectric applications. Since conventional crystallography cannot distinguish between static disorder and atomic motions, we develop the energy-resolved variable-shutter pair distribution function technique. This collects structural snapshots with varying exposure times, on timescales relevant for atomic motions. In disagreement with previous interpretations, we find the time-averaged structure of GeTe to be crystalline at all temperatures, but with anisotropic anharmonic dynamics at higher temperatures that resemble static disorder at fast shutter speeds, with correlated ferroelectric fluctuations along the <100> c direction. We show that this anisotropy naturally emerges from a Ginzburg–Landau model that couples polarization fluctuations through long-range elastic interactions. By accessing time-dependent atomic correlations in energy materials, we resolve the long-standing disagreement between local and average structure probes and show that spontaneous anisotropy is ubiquitous in cubic IV–VI materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Data-Enabled Predictive Control for Building HVAC Systems

Model predictive control is widely used as a control technology for the computation of optimal control inputs of building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, both the benefits and widespread adoption of model predictive control (MPC) are hindered by the effort of model creation, calibration, and accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we apply the data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm for designing controls for building HVAC systems. The algorithm solely depends on input/output data from the system to predict future state trajectories without the need for system identification. The algorithm relies on the idea that a vector space of all input–output trajectories of a discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) system is spanned by time-shifts of a single measured trajectory, given the input signal is persistently exciting. Closed-loop simulations using EnergyPlus are performed to demonstrate the approach. The simulated building modeled in EnergyPlus is a modified commercial large office prototype building served by an air handling unit-variable air volume HVAC system. Temperature setpoints of zones are used as control variables to minimize the HVAC energy cost of the building considering a time-of-use electricity rate structure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the effect of parameter tuning on DeePC performance. Simulation results are used to illustrate the performance of the algorithm and compare the algorithm with model-based MPC and occupancy-based setpoint controller. Overall, DeePC achieves similar performance compared to MPC for lower engineering effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗

Preservation of Microalgae, Lignocellulosic Biomass Blends by Ensiling to Enable Consistent Year-Round Feedstock Supply for Thermochemical Conversion to Biofuels

Seasonal variation in microalgae productivity is a significant barrier to economical production of algae biofuels and chemicals. Summer production can be 3–5 times higher than in the winter resulting in uneven feedstock supplies at algae biorefineries. A portion of the summer production must be preserved for conversion in the winter in order to maintain a biorefinery running at capacity. Ensiling, a preservation process that utilizes lactic acid fermentation to limit microbial degradation, has been demonstrated to successfully stabilize algae biomass (20% solids) and algae-lignocellulosic blends (40% algae-60% lignocellulosic biomass, dry basis) for over 6 months, resulting in fuel production cost savings with fewer emissions. Preservation of algae as blends could be beneficial to biorefineries that utilize thermochemical approaches to fuel production as co-processing of algae and lignocellulosic biomass has been observed to enhance biocrude yield and improve oil quality. This study conducts a resource assessment of biomass residues in the southern United States to identify materials available during peak algae productivity and in sufficient quantity to meet the algae storage needs of an algae biofuel industry. Eight feedstocks met the quantity threshold but only three, distillers grains, haylage, and yard waste, were also available in season. Storage experiments utilizing both freshwater and marine strains of microalgae – Scenedesmus acutus, Chlorella vulgaris, Chlorella zofingiensis, Nannochloropsis gaditana, and Porphyridium purpureum – and yard waste were conducted for 30 days. Storage losses were less than 10% in all but one case, and the pH of all but one blend was reduced to less than 4.7, indicating that yard waste is a suitable feedstock for blending with algae prior to storage. To better understand whether the benefits to conversion realized by processing blends might be affected by storage, elemental analysis and bomb calorimetry of pre- and post-storage algae-yard waste blends were conducted to characterize changes occurring during storage. Storing algae biomass as blends with lignocellulosic biomass could be an effective method of mitigating seasonal variability in algae biomass production while retaining the synergistic effect of co-processing algae blends in thermochemical conversion.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Dissimilar joining of ZEK100 and AA6022 for automotive application

Mg and Al joining is problematic due to different high temperature flow characteristics that often results in weld defects and brittle intermetallic compounds (IMC). We present process development on lap joining of 1.27 mm 6022 (top sheet) and 1.5mm ZEK100 (bottom sheet) for an automotive door application. We conducted process development in linear welding using power control mode (modulating torque and spindle speed) with multiple tool designs, and welding parameters. Process variables were correlated to joint micro-structure and mechanical properties. A 2D computational model was created to understand the failure mechanism and contribution of mechanical interlocking towards joint strength. For a thin (< 2 mm) automotive sheet with softer material as a bottom sheet, adequate control of process variables is critical to maintain weld stability and avoid excessive IMC layer at the interface. A combination of mechanical anchoring and metallurgical reaction is likely responsible for bonding.

Das, Hrishikesh↗

Circuit for providing variable waveform excitation

A circuit for testing an electronic component, such as a transformer, includes at least two power supplies and at least two H bridge circuits. A first H bridge circuit is conductively coupled in parallel to a first power supply. A second H bridge circuit is conductively coupled in parallel to a second power supply. The second H bridge circuit includes one or more anti-series diodes for preventing current from the first power supply from passing through the second H bridge circuit to the second power supply. The first H bridge circuit and the second H bridge circuit are configured to conductively couple to the electronic component for providing a voltage with a predefined waveform to the electronic component.

Beddingfield, Richard B.↗

A Predictive Model for Survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Generic E. coli in Soil Amended with Untreated Animal Manure

Abstract This study aimed at developing a predictive model that captures the influences of a variety of agricultural and environmental variables and is able to predict the concentrations of enteric bacteria in soil amended with untreated Biological Soil Amendments of Animal Origin (BSAAO) under dynamic conditions. We developed and validated a Random Forest model using data from a longitudinal field study conducted in mid‐Atlantic United States investigating the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli in soils amended with untreated dairy manure, horse manure, or poultry litter. Amendment type, days of rain since the previous sampling day, and soil moisture content were identified as the most influential agricultural and environmental variables impacting concentrations of viable E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli recovered from amended soils. Our model results also indicated that E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli declined at similar rates in amended soils under dynamic field conditions.The Random Forest model accurately predicted changes in viable E. coli concentrations over time under different agricultural and environmental conditions. Our model also accurately characterized the variability of E. coli concentration in amended soil over time by providing upper and lower prediction bound estimates. Cross‐validation results indicated that our model can be potentially generalized to other geographic regions and incorporated into a risk assessment for evaluating the risks associated with application of untreated BSAAO. Our model can be validated for other regions and predictive performance also can be enhanced when data sets from additional geographic regions become available.

Pang, Hao↗

MultiPEM Toolbox: User Manual [Rev. 2]

This document explains use of the Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (Multi PEM) Toolbox, a collection of R scripts for estimating the unknown device parameters of a new event with uncertainty quantification. The methodology and application used for illustration in this user manual are fully documented in a Los Alamos National Laboratory technical report hereafter designated “WPA” for reference. Additional details on the application are found in a recent journal article. Two assessment types are available: rapid and complete. Rapid assessments are conducted in two stages, as described in Section 2. In the first stage, calibration data are used to estimate forward and error model parameters (WPA, §5.1) and (if relevant) errors-in-variables yield values for calibration sources (WPA, §3, Equation (3)). In the second stage, new event data are used to estimate the unknown new event device parameters (WPA, §5.2) with uncertainty quantification. Two options for treating the inferred first stage parameters in second stage Bayesian analysis are available: fixing them at their maximum likelihood estimate (default), or multiple imputation. Multiple imputation involves utilizing several posterior samples (imputations) of the first stage parameters as fixed values in the second stage posterior sampling of the new event device parameters. Second stage sampling is conducted across imputations in parallel to improve computational efficiency. This method produces improved uncertainty quantification of the new event device parameters compared with the default treatment of the first stage parameters, at the expense of additional computation. Complete assessments are conducted in a single stage, as described in Section 3. Calibration and (if relevant) new event data are used simultaneously to estimate all forward model, error model, and (if relevant) new event device parameters with uncertainty quantification on the latter. As the name suggests, rapid assessments generally run substantially faster than complete assessments (even with multiple imputation), because the results of first stage analysis can be stored and incorporated into estimating a relatively low-dimensional space of new event device parameters whenever relevant new event data becomes available. On the other hand, complete assessments must be run on the full set of model and device parameters with calibration and new event data every time the latter becomes available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Risk-Constrained Reinforcement Learning for Inverter-Dominated Power System Controls

Here, this paper develops a risk-aware controller for grid-forming inverters (GFMs) to minimize large frequency oscillations in GFM inverter-dominated power systems. To tackle the high variability from loads/renewables, we incorporate a mean-variance risk constraint into the classical linear quadratic regulator (LQR) formulation for this problem. The risk constraint aims to bound the time-averaged cost of state variability and thus can improve the worst-case performance for large disturbances. The resulting risk-constrained LQR problem is solved through the dual reformulation to a minimax problem, by using a reinforcement learning (RL) method termed as stochastic gradient-descent with max-oracle (SGDmax). In particular, the zero-order policy gradient (ZOPG) approach is used to simplify the gradient estimation using simulated system trajectories. Numerical tests conducted on the IEEE 68-bus system have validated the convergence of our proposed SGDmax for GFM model and corroborate the effectiveness of the risk constraint in improving the worst-case performance while reducing the variability of the overall control cost.

Frequency control↗

Recent advancements of plant-based natural fiber–reinforced composites and their applications

Demands for reducing energy consumption and environmental impacts are the major driving factors for the development of natural fiber–reinforced composites (NFRCs) in many sectors. Compared with synthesized fiber, natural fiber provides several advantages in terms of biodegradability, light weight, low price, life-cycle superiority, and satisfactory mechanical properties. However, the inherent features of plant-based natural fibers have presented challenges to the development and application of NFRCs, such as variable fiber quality, limited mechanical properties, water absorption, low thermal stability, incompatibility with hydrophobic matrices, and propensity to agglomeration. Substantial research has recently been conducted to address these challenges for improved performance of NFRCs and their applications. This article reviews the recent advancements of plant-based NFRCs, focusing on strategies and breakthroughs in enhancing the NFRCs’ performance, including fiber modification, fiber hybridization, lignocellulosic fillers incorporation, conventional processing techniques, additive manufacturing (3D printing), and new fiber source exploration. In conclusion, the sustainability of plant-based NFRCs using life-cycle assessment and the burgeoning applications of NFRCs with emphasis on the automotive industry are also discussed.

3D reinforcement↗