Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “trend analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

Structural and Chemical Characterization of Hardwood from Tree Species with Applications as Bioenergy Feedstocks

Eucalypt species are a group of flowering trees widely used in pulp production for paper manufacture. For several decades, the wood pulp industry has focused research and development efforts on improving yields, growth rates and pulp quality through breeding and the genetic improvement of key tree species. Recently, this focus has shifted from the production of high quality pulps to the investigation of the use of eucalypts as feedstocks for biofuel production. Here the structure and chemical composition of the heartwood and sapwood of Eucalyptus dunnii, E. globulus, E. pillularis, E. urophylla , an E. urophylla-E. grandis cross, Corymbia citriodora ssp. variegata , and Acacia mangium were compared using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and biochemical composition analysis. Some trends relating to these compositions were also identified by Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) spectroscopy. These results will serve as a foundation for a more comprehensive database of wood properties that will help develop criteria for the selection of tree species for use as biorefinery feedstocks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Trends in Planetary Data Analysis. Executive summary of the Planetary Data Workshop

Planetary data include non-imaging remote sensing data, which includes spectrometric, radiometric, and polarimetric remote sensing observations. Also included are in-situ, radio/radar data, and Earth based observation. Also discussed is development of a planetary data system. A catalog to identify observations will be the initial entry point for all levels of users into the data system. There are seven distinct data support services: encyclopedia, data index, data inventory, browse, search, sample, and acquire. Data systems for planetary science users must provide access to data, process, store, and display data. Two standards will be incorporated into the planetary data system: Standard communications protocol and Standard format data unit. The data system configuration must combine a distributed system with those of a centralized system. Fiscal constraints have made prioritization important. Activities include saving previous mission data, planning/cost analysis, and publishing of proceedings.

Evans, N.↗

The evolving trend in spacecraft health analysis

The Space Flight Operations Center inaugurated the concept of a central data repository for spacecraft data and the distribution of computing power to the end users for that data's analysis at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Advanced Multimission Operations System is continuing the evolution of this concept as new technologies emerge. Constant improvements in data management tools, data visualization, and hardware lead to ever expanding ideas for improving the analysis of spacecraft health in an era of budget constrained mission operations systems. The foundation of this evolution, its history, and its current plans will be discussed.

Kirkpatrick, Russell L.↗

Analysis of 1970-1995 Trends in Tropospheric Ozone at Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes with the GEOS-CHEM Model

I ] The causes of trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes from 1970 to 1995 are investigated with the GEOS-CHEM model, a global three-dimensional model of the troposphere driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model is used to investigate the sensitivity of tropospheric ozone with respect to (1) changes in the anthropogenic emission of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons, (2) increases in methane concentrations, (3) variations in the stratospheric source of ozone, (4) changes in solar radiation resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, and ( 5 ) increases in tropospheric temperatures. Model results indicate that local increases in NO, emissions have caused most of the increases seen in lower tropospheric ozone over Europe and Japan. Increases in methane are responsible for roughly one fifth of the anthropogenically induced increase in tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes. However, changes in ozone precursors do not adequately explain either the spatial differences in observed ozone trends across midlatitudes or the observed decreases in ozone over Canada throughout the troposphere. We argue that ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere is likely to have reduced the stratospheric source by as much as 30% from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. Model simulations that account for such a reduction along with reported changes in anthropogenic emissions show steep declines of ozone in the upper troposphere and variable increases in the lower troposphere that are more consistent with observations. Differential temperature trends in summer between North America and Europe may account for at least some of the remaining spatial variation in tropospheric ozone trends. Increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion do not appear to significantly reduce tropospheric ozone, except at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere following the breakup of the ozone hole.

Fusco, Andrew C.↗

Trends in Human Spaceflight: Analysis of Observed Propulsion Failure Modes Following NASA’s Artemis I Mission

In 2022, NASA’s Artemis program returned the agency to lunar space, propelled by the Orion European Service Module (ESM). Through rigorous ground test campaigns for Artemis I and II and the collection and transmission of operational data during the Artemis I flight, the Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) team created and maintained a robust database of component nonconformances. This study analyzes in-flight and ground processing findings on the Artemis ESM propulsion subsystem to track reliability and safety metrics, as well as comparing the data to that of previous human spaceflight programs, Apollo and Space Shuttle. In drawing a comparison to the Artemis I flight, recommendations can be made for the Artemis II crewed mission to ensure best practices for flight safety, including redundancy and failure tolerance in the system. The results reinforce a need for robust safety standards and caution against the complacency of a single successful test flight.

human spaceflight safety↗

Trends in Human Spaceflight: Analysis of Observed Propulsion Failure Modes Following NASA’s Artemis I Mission

In 2022, NASA’s Artemis program returned the agency to lunar space, propelled by the Orion European Service Module (ESM). Through rigorous ground test campaigns for Artemis I and II and the collection and transmission of operational data during the Artemis I flight, the Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) team created and maintained a robust database of component nonconformances. This study analyzes in-flight and ground processing findings on the Artemis ESM propulsion subsystem to track reliability and safety metrics, as well as comparing the data to that of previous human spaceflight programs, Apollo and Space Shuttle. In drawing a comparison to the Artemis I flight, recommendations can be made for the Artemis II crewed mission to ensure best practices for flight safety, including redundancy and failure tolerance in the system. The results reinforce a need for robust safety standards and caution against the complacency of a single successful test flight.

human spaceflight safety↗

Using the American Time-Use Survey for Travel-Behavior Research

This presentation, by Venu Garikapati of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, provides information about the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), which was conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The presentation will also cover examples on utilizing time use data for understanding travel patterns.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Impacts of control strategies, the Great Recession and weekday variations on NO 2 columns above North American cities

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been estimating NO2 columns from space for over 10 years, and these have been used to estimate emissions and emission trends for point and area sources all over the world. In this study we evaluate the trends in NO2 columns over 54 cities in the USA and Canada to identify the long term trends due to air quality policies, the impact of the Great Recession, and the weekday-weekend effect. A multiple linear regression model is used to fit annual, seasonal and weekly factors for individual swath retrievals along with the impact of temperature, wind speed and pixel size. For most cities, the correlation coefficients of the model fit ranges from 0.47 to 0.76. There have been strong reductions in NO2 columns, with annual decreases of up to 7% per year in most cities. During the years of the Great Recession, NO2 columns were as much as 30% lower than they would have been had they followed the linear annual trend. The analysis yielded insights into the timing of the reductions, with some cities in the northwest and in the east experiencing reductions in 2008 already, and most areas back to where they would have been based on the uniform trend by 2011. The analysis also finds that reductions in columns during the weekend vary significantly from city to city, with a range in reductions of 10%-30% on Saturdays, and 20%-50% on Sundays.

de Foy, Benjamin (ORCID:0000000341509922)↗

What Could Be Causing Global Ozone Depletion

The reported decline trend in global ozone between 1970 and 1986 may be in part an artifact of the analysis; the trend value appears to depend on the time interval selected for analysis--in relation to the 11-year solar cycle. If so, then the decline should diminish as one approaches solar maximum and includes data from 1987 to 1990. If the decline is real, its cause could be the result of natural and human factors other than just chlorofluorocarbons.

Singer, S. Fred↗

Discerning Trends in Performance Across Multiple Events

Mass Data is a computer program that enables rapid, easy discernment of trends in performance data across multiple flights and ground tests. The program can perform Fourier analysis and other functions for the purposes of frequency analysis and trending of all variables. These functions facilitate identification of past use of diagnosed systems and of anomalies in such systems, and enable rapid assessment of related current problems. Many variables, for computation of which it is usually necessary to perform extensive manual manipulation of raw downlist data, are automatically computed and made available to all users, regularly eliminating the need for what would otherwise be an extensive amount of engineering analysis. Data from flight, ground test, and simulation are preprocessed and stored in one central location for instantaneous access and comparison for diagnostic and trending purposes. Rules are created so that an event log is created for every flight, making it easy to locate information on similar maneuvers across many flights. The same rules can be created for test sets and simulations, and are searchable, so that information on like events is easily accessible.

Slater, Simon↗

Beyond Leakage: Non-Revenue Water Loss and Economic Sustainability

Water loss in urban supply systems poses significant challenges for water utility companies worldwide, affecting both sustainable access to clean water and the financial viability of utility operations. This study analyzes the evolution of water losses in high-level supply systems from 2017 to 2021 in Portugal, focusing on its implications for the profitability of water utility companies across NUTs II regions. Drawing on data from various sources, including the National Information System for Water Resources, PORDATA, ERSAR, and ORBIS, this analysis identifies trends, patterns, and potential factors influencing water loss dynamics. Key components of the analysis include calculating average annual losses, examining unbilled water percentages, and conducting regression analysis to quantify the impact of water loss on profit margins. The findings contribute to the literature on water loss management and financial performance in the water utility sector, offering insights for policymakers, water utility managers, and stakeholders to enhance financial sustainability and reduce water losses.

Santos, Eleonora (ORCID:0000000346930804)↗

A Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) for Historical Emissions

Historical emission estimates for anthropogenic aerosol and precursor compounds are key data needed for Earth system models, climate models, and atmospheric chemistry and transport models; both for general analysis and assessment and also for model validation through comparisons with observations. Current global emission data sets have a number of shortcomings, including timeliness and transparency. Satellite and other earth-system data are increasingly available in near real-time, but global emission estimates lag by 5-10 years. The CEDS project will construct a data-driven, open source framework to produce annually updated emission estimates. The basic methodologies to be used for this system have been used for SO2 (Smith et al. 2011, Klimont, Smith and Cofala 2013), and are designed to complement existing inventory efforts. The goal of this system is to consistently extend current emission estimates both forward in time to recent years and also back over the entire industrial era. The project will produce improved datasets for global and (potentially) regional model, allow analysis of trends across time, countries, and sectors of emissions and emission factors, and facilitate improved scientific analysis in general. Consistent estimation of uncertainty will be an integral part of this system. This effort will facilitate community evaluation of emissions and further emission-related research more generally.

Smith, Steven J.↗

A Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) for Historical Emissions

Historical emission estimates for anthropogenic aerosol and precursor compounds are key data needed for Earth system models, climate models, and atmospheric chemistry and transport models; both for general analysis and assessment and also for model validation through comparisons with observations. Current global emission data sets have a number of shortcomings, including timeliness and transparency. Satellite and other earth-system data are increasingly available in near real-time, but global emission estimates lag by 5-10 years. The CEDS project will construct a data-driven, open source framework to produce annually updated emission estimates. The basic methodologies to be used for this system have been used for SO2 (Smith et al. 2011, Klimont, Smith and Cofala 2013), and are designed to complement existing inventory efforts. The goal of this system is to consistently extend current emission estimates both forward in time to recent years and also back over the entire industrial era. The project will produce improved datasets for global and (potentially) regional model, allow analysis of trends across time, countries, and sectors of emissions and emission factors, and facilitate improved scientific analysis in general. Consistent estimation of uncertainty will be an integral part of this system. This effort will facilitate community evaluation of emissions and further emission-related research more generally.

Smith, Steven J.↗

Implementation of a Dose-based Compliance System for WCS - 19178

Waste Control Specialists LLC (WCS) operates a low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facility in Andrews, Texas. The site includes a compact waste facility (CWF) that began receiving waste in 2012, a federal waste facility (FWF) that started receiving waste in 2013, as well as a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) landfill and a byproduct facility. The current site license uses a complex system of concentration-based investigation levels and action levels (ILs and ALs) coupled with analytical decision levels (ADLs) that, when exceeded, require specific steps to be taken. These concentration-based ILs and ALs are media specific (i.e. air, soil, water), radionuclide specific, location specific, and disposal facility specific. This results in thousands of individual ILs, ALs, and ADLs that need to be managed and evaluated routinely in order to demonstrate compliance. Further, under the current system, each exceedance of an IL and AL can trigger comparisons to numerous additional isotopic ILs per sample, which is cumbersome, error prone, and costly. This paper describes implementation of a dose-based compliance system that has been developed to replace the existing system. The dose-based compliance system is implemented in RACER{sup C}, a cloud-based software developed by Risk Assessment Corporation (RAC). This system maintains all the analytical results related to the sampling and analysis conducted as part of the Radiological Environmental Monitoring Program (REMP) together with the geo-spatial data allowing instantaneous trending and analysis of the data. Further, the system contains the information needed to compare the analytical results to the new media-specific screening levels that have been developed, and the parameters and routines to compute doses using prescribed exposure scenarios and dose coefficients for compliance evaluation. Once measurement data are entered into RACER, the routines for continuous screening of air, soil, groundwater, and dosimeter data are triggered, and any sample result failing the screening step or exceeding the dose IL/AL is identified and flagged automatically for further review or action, as appropriate. Because RACER is cloud-based, the data, screening, and dose calculations can be accessed remotely at any time, providing a timely and efficient method for identifying any possible releases from the site to the environment as well as determining the potential dose consequences associated with a release. Furthermore, the system is accessible by the regulator providing transparency and ensuring they remain fully informed in an efficient manner. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Trends in Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems Over Asia in 2001–2020

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently occur over Asia during the warm season, often producing intense precipitation with associated socioeconomic impacts. Here we reveal significant trends in MCS occurrence frequency and related precipitation in Asia during the warm season (March–September) in 2001–2020, using a tracking method that combines cloud and precipitation criteria with high-resolution satellite data from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission. To examine whether there are differences between MCSs of different scales, both meso-α scales (MαCSs) and meso-β scales (MβCSs), with horizontal scales of 200–2,000 km and 20–200 km, are tracked. The distribution pattern of frequency and related precipitation of both MαCSs and MβCSs are quite similar and manifest positive trends over East Asia (EA) and Northeast Asia, and negative trend over Southeast Asia (SEA). The MCS precipitation trend contributes significantly to total precipitation trend, with MαCSs contributing the most. Our analysis indicates the trend in lower-tropospheric water vapor flux convergence has a similar spatial pattern to the MCS frequency and related precipitation trend. Based on an atmospheric moisture flux decomposition analysis, the water vapor flux convergence trend can largely be explained by the change in horizontal wind convergence, while the specific humidity trend driven largely by temperature change plays a minor role. In conclusion, the trend in wind convergence in EA and SEA is possibly related to the evident trend in the lower-tropospheric anticyclone over the western North Pacific and SEA, which might be due to the relatively stronger warming in the Indian Ocean during the past two decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model

Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.

Barringer, T. H.↗

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗